Sun Turns to Lasers to Speed Up Computer Chips
alphadogg writes to mention that Sun is attempting to move from the typical design of multiple small chips back to a unified single-wafer design. "The company is announcing today a $44 million contract from the Pentagon to explore replacing the wires between computer chips with laser beams. The technology, part of a field of computer science known as silicon photonics, would eradicate the most daunting bottleneck facing today's supercomputer designers: moving information rapidly to solve problems that require hundreds or thousands of processors."
I wonder if the time saved transmitting information via light is offset by the transition time used to translate that back into electric signals. On a single board, the distance travelled is on the order of decimeters. On a chip, micrometers. Are the time savings *that* significant? Even between peripherals, the time saved seems negligble.
Commentary on this, from an actual EE, not the pretend ones on Slashdot (you know who you are)?
Sounds sweet, but is it expensive in terms of energy/time/money? Does EMI become less of a problem on circuit boards? Will this make designer's lives easier?
If the "lasers" require an electrical signal to be generated, isn't this just adding a step? Also you need an optical sensor somewhere which converts the light back into an electrical signal, no? Sounds like building a tunnel where there is already a bridge.
Whenever anyone says there is a 50% chance of something happening they really mean "I have no idea. No idea at all. I'm guessing."
In probability theory, "p" has a specific meaning which is roughly stated as "the ratio of the total number of positive outcomes to the total number of possible outcomes in a population". So for the number of 50% to be right, it must be known that if this research was repeated a million times, 500,000 times there would be success and 500,000 times there would be failure. But this makes no sense because the thing being measured is not a stochastic property. It is simply an unknown thing.
What is probably vaguely intended when a number like this is given is that if you took all the things in the history of the world that "felt" like this in the beginning, half of them will have worked out and half will have not.
How on earth could any mortal human know that?
But it gets even more complicated. One cannot state a probability like this without stating how confident one is in the estimate of the number. So really a person should say the probably of success of this endeavor is between 45% and 55% and this estimate will be correct 19 times out of 20.
With that as background here is what I humbly suggest 50% really means: it means "I have no idea how to quantify the error of this estimate. It doesn't matter what the estimate is because the error band could possibly stretch between 0% and 100%. So I'll split the difference and call it 50%". But that is wrong, the statement should be "I estimate the probability of success to be between 0% and 100%".
But nobody does that because it makes them look stupid.
So whenever anyone says there is a 50% chance, or a 50/50 probability of something happening, they might as well talk in made-up Klingon words, the information content of their statement will be equivalent.
Equine Mammals Are Considerably Smaller
I have to wonder, if Sun is pursuing Defense contracts, does Sun know where it's business is headed? Usually companies do the Defense contracts when they are small, need money, and don't really have a product yet. Since Sun made $740 million last year, you'd think they could afford to spend $40 million on this (probably over several years), and then they'd get to keep all the knowledge to themselves (including their R&D direction). So I can only assume that either Sun thinks this has too small a chance of success to invest in, or they can't think of any ideas for the future and are using government money to explore lots of ideas and hope that one of them keeps the company afloat.
Maybe it's just because I'm not in the server space, but it's unclear to me why exactly I would buy a Sun machine. I used to know--they were fast and had a nice version of Unix--but now Solaris is free and I'm not even sure if Sun makes their own chips any more.