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The Death of the Silicon Computer Chip
Stony Stevenson sends a report from the Institute of Physics' Condensed Matter and Material Physics conference, where researchers predicted that the reign of the silicon chip is nearly over. Nanotubes and superconductors are leading candidates for a replacement; they don't mention graphene. "...the conventional silicon chip has no longer than four years left to run... [R]esearchers speculate that the silicon chip will be unable to sustain the same pace of increase in computing power and speed as it has in previous years. Just as Gordon Moore predicted in 2005, physical limitations of the miniaturized electronic devices of today will eventually lead to silicon chips that are saturated with transistors and incapable of holding any more digital information. The challenge now lies in finding alternative components that may pave the way to faster, more powerful computers of the future"
hmmm, I trust the people I know on the floor more then someone whose job it is to say things that maintain consumer confidence.
It would be a stock hit to say "We will be replacing silcone in x period of time if X is any longer then 'right now'.
Some new technologies solve those problems. Technologies in the 'we hobbled something together proof of concept stage, not the I wrote this down on paper stage.
Some of it is impressive, whether or not there will b a practical way to mass produce it is another thing. If not, I can imagine a time in the future where only large entities that can afford 500K a chip will be using them. Or anyone at home that can afford the latest electron microscope, laser, super cooling.
meh, I'm just glad the MHz war is pretty much subsided and we are FINALLY focusing on multi-core.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
"I doubt silicon will be going anywhere anytime soon - its simply too affordable."
Agreed. Besides, they've been saying this since the 90s, that silicon can't possibly get any faster and it'll be replaced very soon.
I call BS. They had 350 gigahertz silicon chips 2 years ago:
"At room temperature, the IBM-Georgia Tech chip operates at 350GHz, or 350 billion cycles per second. That's far faster than standard PC processors today, which range from 3.8GHz to 1.8GHz. But SiGe chips can gain additional performance in colder temperatures....SiGe chips, the scientists theorized, could eventually hit 1 terahertz, or 1 trillion cycles a second."
I think silicon is safe for awhile longer.
my karma will be here long after I'm gone
You make some good points and I can't really argue them. As the die sizes continue to get smaller, silicon wafers must be more and more pure because tinier artifacts in the wafer can cause issues in the manufacturing process and thats going to be pretty unavoidable. However it also means that more dies can be stamped onto each wafer which should negate the number that are lost. I was meaning more that even if computer hardware is replaced with something else, things which need lower grade integrated circuits are still going to use silicon. I mean, you don't need a 1thz processor for a car's ECU, or for a garage door opener. And as more and more appliances become "smart" more things are going to need lower end chips - so I highly doubt that silicon is going anywhere. Maybe not for pc's, but everything else that is just starting to get 'wired' silicon is going to be around for a VERY long time.
Nanotubes have a certain chirality - denoted by (m,n) with m and n being integers. Those two numbers define the properties of the nanotube (e.g. if m-n is a multiple of 3, the nanotube is metallic - otherwise it is semiconducting). They also determine the radius.
So far no one has come up with a way to get a nanotube of a certain chirality. They just synthesize many nanotubes and then pick manually the ones they want - if it exists in the sample. Until they can do this, the nanotube industry will not become a reality.
Beetle B.