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Prediction Markets and the 2008 Electoral Map

Electionwatch submitted a predicted electoral map of the 2008 US Presidential election, based on the bets made by the intrade prediction markets. I'm always interested in these markets and how accurate they end up being. This one calls it for Obama, but then again you probably could guess that by just watching 10 minutes of any TV "News" channel.

6 of 813 comments (clear)

  1. Re:Dolt by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    Socialism? Bought into the right wing bullet points, huh?

    Just a matter of values, oh, and McCain is devoid of them.

  2. Re:Obama will win! by JackieBrown · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    or 58 states vs 50?

  3. Re:Called if for Obama by mweather · · Score: 1, Flamebait

    Christ, we can't even find a black candidate who isn't a bigot!

  4. Re:Classic Rookie mistake. People are not logical. by penguin_dance · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    The best recent example (the book was written in 1989) is America's reaction to the 9/11 attacks. More people died of hunger that day than were killed in the attack.

    In the US? I'm calling BS on that one unless you have some stats that prove otherwise. The most commonly used number is 24,000 world-wide which the vast amount is going to be in 3rd world countries. And you can hardly compare the effect on having 3,000+ of your countrymen killed vs. a worldwide, mostly anonymous group of people. And this was the largest attack on our homeland since Pearl Harbor. Had it happened later in the day, even more would have died.

    The US response to the attacks was totally illogical because people felt threatened and this caused them to stop using the higher levels of their brains.

    So-called "higher levels of their brains" simply suggests that you then turn around and reason with those who attacked you. (And this is WHY most Americans don't trust democrats when it comes to national security.) That's like being bitten by a snake. I do not turn around and reason with the snake. I cut its head off.

    I might remind you that the "intellectual classes" are the FIRST people who are off'd after a military coup. Not because of their intelligence, but because they are quick and easy prey who only realize their mistake when it's too late. Stalin called them "useful idiots." OTOH, those so-called "reptilian flight or fight" instincts have a lot to be said for and have kept our butts alive for millions of years.

    --
    If you've never been modded as "flamebait" or "troll," you've never tried to argue a minority viewpoint here!
  5. Re:Obama will win! by ProfessionalCookie · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    Sorry for the lack of mod points- it's just that nobody knows about that. Obama is our Democrat remember, we try to refrain from publishing things like that.

  6. Re:Dolt by drsquare · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    Yes. Everyone has a right to property they freely acquired from other freely-acting individual.
    No they don't. There isn't a single country in the world where you have the right not to pay any taxes. Where exactly is this right spelt out in any official document?

    Oh right, it's just typical college-student internet-warrior libertarian masturbation.

    2. Competition among private services gives private companies an incentive to provide the best possible service at the lowest price. Because there is only one provider for a public service (and no competing providers are permitted to exist), there is no incentive for public services to provide the best service or the cheapest service.
    OK then, so whilst my house is burning down, I can ring around for the cheapest quote, and when my family are being burnt alive, I can swipe my credit card to pay the deposit. Awesome. You've really thought this through. No, really.

    I suppose half a dozen different companies are going to build competing sewage systems so I can choose. Of course, the road will collapse due to being undermined, but then there are ten roads outside my house due to competition anyway. Not to mention every field having ten power lines crossing it. And a dozen policemen fighting each other for the right to arrest a criminal.

    By the way, property is not a natural right, it only exists because society defines it as yours. If you're not willing to pay taxes to society, then society has no reason to protect 'your' land.

    Get over it, Ron Paul lost. Even the USA, the last bastion of unrestrained 'fuck you' capitalism, rejected libertarianism. You internet-forum nutjobs can go back into the closet.