Prediction Markets and the 2008 Electoral Map

Electionwatch submitted a predicted electoral map of the 2008 US Presidential election, based on the bets made by the intrade prediction markets. I'm always interested in these markets and how accurate they end up being. This one calls it for Obama, but then again you probably could guess that by just watching 10 minutes of any TV "News" channel.

Comments

Pretty close to CNN

[jeiler]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/10/electoral.map/index.html

Some of those predictions seem overly confident

[SputnikPanic]

McCain 70-80% likely to pick up Florida? Obama 70-80% likely to grab Pennsylvania? Everyone is expecting those two to be big battleground states. Those probabilities seem pretty lofty to me.

Classic Rookie mistake. People are not logical.

[DrJimbo]

Unfortunately, I think there are going to be powerful dark forces at work to try get the Republicans back in again. People are easily swayed. Another terrorist attack in the USA I think could sway the elections. That after 8 years, Republicans can't protect America? You need to read New World, New Mind by Robert E. Ornstein and Paul Ehrlich. Pdf's available here.

The book explains that people are not rational or logical especially when it comes to risk assessment. The best recent example (the book was written in 1989) is America's reaction to the 9/11 attacks. More people died of hunger that day than were killed in the attack. The US response to the attacks was totally illogical because people felt threatened and this caused them to stop using the higher levels of their brains. They instead, reverted to their reptilian "flight or fight" instincts.

Another similar (or worse) attack will most likely produce a similar response from the American people. They will stop thinking rationally, which is probably the only way the Republicans can beat Obama on November 4th.