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Prediction Markets and the 2008 Electoral Map

Electionwatch submitted a predicted electoral map of the 2008 US Presidential election, based on the bets made by the intrade prediction markets. I'm always interested in these markets and how accurate they end up being. This one calls it for Obama, but then again you probably could guess that by just watching 10 minutes of any TV "News" channel.

2 of 813 comments (clear)

  1. Re:No, You. by InvisblePinkUnicorn · · Score: 1, Troll

    "A tax rebate check is only printed money if you are running deficits like we are under Republican rule, not if you have a surplusses like we had by the time Bill Clinton left office."

    What does this discussion have to do with being Republican/Democrat? Both parties are bad for the system. Given that we currently have a deficit, does it make sense to say we should put out more "rebate" checks, as Obama is doing (and probably McCain too)?

    Not only that, but consider the difference between a one time stimulous check, and an occupation of a foreign country that costs us $341 Million per day and has left us less safe. That is $341 Million of printed money per day. Convenient you would forget about that

    I did not forget it - it simply does not have anything to do with the current subject. Spending money on a bogus war is still putting money into the system. And if we lose that money (as apparently billions have been lost), the value of the dollars that are left in the system will go up. What does devalue the dollar, though, is printing more money out of thin air (read: the deficit), so if you truly are against devaluing the dollar then you should be against Obama on that issue.

    "It is immoral to bankrupt people for getting sick and any society that has the ability to prevent this has a moral duty to."

    Who is "bankrupting" who? If people opt for expensive treatments, then they should pay for that treatment. Or, if they can't afford it, they should choose a less expensive treatment. If the government is preventing less expensive treatments from being available to the public (which is at the root of your concern), then such laws should be overturned, allowing less expensive treatments to exist.

    As for morality: it is immoral to take by force from another individual any of their property. Agreed? It is likewise immoral for a government backed by force to do the same, with the threatened alternatives of jail or emigration. People have a right to everything that they have freely acquired through trade with other freely-acting individuals.

    "All other industrialized nations provide a health care system to their citizens that actually treats their conditions rather than just extracting as much money while providing as little healthcare as possible."

    And likewise those nations, industrialized or not, are violating the rights of their citizens. The government does not grant natural rights - rather, it is charged with upholding them.

  2. Re:Dolt by InvisblePinkUnicorn · · Score: 1, Troll

    "Unless you have a degree in economics (obviously you don't) please STFU."

    Sorry I should have clarified. All of my friends in college were econ majors and I just base my statements on what they've told me. I personally did not go down that road.