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Intel Says to Prepare For "Thousands of Cores"
Impy the Impiuos Imp writes to tell us that in a recent statement Intel has revealed their plans for the future and it goes well beyond the traditional processor model. Suggesting developers start thinking about tens, hundreds, or even thousand or cores, it seems Intel is pushing for a massive evolution in the way processing is handled. "Now, however, Intel is increasingly 'discussing how to scale performance to core counts that we aren't yet shipping...Dozens, hundreds, and even thousands of cores are not unusual design points around which the conversations meander,' [Anwar Ghuloum, a principal engineer with Intel's Microprocessor Technology Lab] said. He says that the more radical programming path to tap into many processing cores 'presents the "opportunity" for a major refactoring of their code base, including changes in languages, libraries, and engineering methodologies and conventions they've adhered to for (often) most of the their software's existence.'"
I'm no software engineer, but it seems like a lot of the issue in designing for multiple cores is being able to turn large tasks into many independent discrete operations that can be processed in tandem. But it seems that some tasks lend themselves to that compartmentalization and some don't. If you have 1,000 half-gigahertz cores running a 3D simulation, you may be able to get 875 FPS out of Doom X at 1920x1440, but what about the processes that are slow and plodding and sequential? How do those get sped up if you're opting for more cores instead of more cycles?
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It's a good idea.. Somewhat of the same idea that the Cell chip has going for it (and well, Phenom X3s). You make a product with lots of redunant objects so that when some are bound to failure, the percentage of failure is much lower..
If there are 1000 cores on a chip, and 100 go bad... You're still only losing a *maximum* of 10% of performance versus when you have 2 or 4 cores and 1 or 2 go bad, you have a performance impact of 50% essentially.. Brings costs down because yeilds go up dramatically.
Well, parallel programming is hard. It's not so hard that it can't be done, but it's harder than sequential programming. Unless your app will have a specific advantage because of this parallel programming, then it isn't worth the effort to do it in the first place. The nice thing however, would be that you could run each process on a separate core, and there wouldn't be any task switching needed. This would speed things up quite a bit. Also, if you locked a process or thread to each core, then one slow down wouldn't take out the entire system.
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"So whether programmers find this move acceptable or not is irrelevant because this path is probably the only way to design faster CPU:s once we've hit the nanometer wall."
I guess you should put "faster" in quotes.
In any case, it is absolutely relevant what programmers think since any performance improvements that customers actually experience is dependent on our code.
Historically a primary reason to buy a new computer is because a faster system makes legacy applications run faster. To a large extent this won't be true with a new multicore PC. So why would people buy them?
That's why Intel wants us to redesign our software - so that in the future their customers will still have a reason to buy a new PC with Intel Inside.
My guess is 4 cores in 2008, 4 cores in 2009, moving to 8 cores through 2010. We may move to a new uber-core model once the software catches up, more like 6-8 years than 2-4. I'm positive we won't "max out" at 64 cores, because we're going to hit a per-core speed limit much more quickly than we hit a number-of-cores limit.
Memory would have to be completely redefined. Currently, you have one memory bank that is effectively accessed serially.
Yes, in Intel land. AMD has this thing called NUMA. What do you think "HyperTransport" means?
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This seems silly. If you create more compute power, someone will think of ways to use it.
Web applications are becoming more AJAX'y all the time, and they are not sequential at all. Watching a video while another tab checks my Gmail is a parallel task. All indications are that people want to consume more and more media on their computers. Things like the MLB mosaic allow you to watch four games at once.
Have you ever listened to a song through your computer while coding, running an email program, and running an instant messaging program? There are four highly parallelizable tasks right there. Not compute intensive enough for you? Imagine the song compressed with a new codec that is twice as efficient in terms of size but twice as compute intensive. Imagine the email program indexing your email for efficient search, running algorithms to assess the email's importance to you, and virus checking new deliveries. Imagine your code editor doing on the fly analysis of what you are coding, and making suggestions.
"Normal" users are doing more and more with computers as well. Now that fast computers are cheap, people who never edited video or photos are doing it. If you want a significant market besides gamers who need more cores, it is people making videos, especially HD videos. Sure, my Grandmother isn't going to be doing this, but I do, and I'm sure my children will do it even more.
And don't forget about virus writers. They need a few cores to run on as well!
Computer power keeps its steady progress higher, and we keep finding interesting things to do with it all. I don't see that stopping, so I don't see a limit to the number of cores people will need.
SGI and or Cray were using NUMA a decade ago.
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My dad's been programming for decades, and he's much more used to paradigm shifts than I am. His first programming job was translating assembly from one architechture to another, and now he's a proficient web developer. He understands concurrency and keeps up to date on new developments.
I'm reminded of an anecdote told to me during a presentation. The presenter had been introducing a new technology, and one man had a concern: "I've just worked hard to learn the previous technology. Can you promise me that, if I learn this one, it will be the last one I ever have to learn?" The presenter replied, "I can't promise you that, but I can promise you that you're in the wrong profession."