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Changes In Rocks Noted Before Earthquakes

Smivs writes with this snippet from an article at the BBC, well worth reading: "Scientists have made an important advance in their efforts to predict earthquakes, the journal Nature says. A team of US researchers has detected stress-induced changes in rocks that occurred hours before two small tremors in California's San Andreas Fault. The observations used sensors lowered down holes drilled into the quake zone. The team says we are a long way from routine tremor forecasts but the latest findings hold out hope that such services might be possible one day."

48 comments

  1. That would make sense by Paranatural · · Score: 1

    It would make sense that just before an earthquake the rocks would start to stress, pull and break just before a cascading collapse.

    The real question is how much would this system cost?

    Yeah, it might save lives, but if an early detection system would cost an area a few hundred million, I'm guessing it won't happen.

    1. Re:That would make sense by gunnk · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Well, I'll say that cost of the system isn't the real question because THERE IS NO SYSTEM.

      They haven't developed an early warning system. They've just seen some changes in the rock prior to earthquakes which lead them to believe that it might be possible to develop a system of some sort that would provide early warning.

      As the summary of the article says:

      "The team says we are a long way from routine tremor forecasts but the latest findings hold out hope that such services might be possible one day."

      --
      Life is short: void the warranty.
    2. Re:That would make sense by Serenissima · · Score: 5, Informative

      How much is it? It costs a lot of money. I work for a Geology company and we had our Geologists out on site during the drilling of the SAFOD project. I was out there for a week relieving the other hands. The main cost of the operation is time. If you want to drill a hole, you have to contract out a drilling rig. That's 10's of thousands of dollars a day. The longer it takes to drill a well, the more it costs.

      They were drilling directionally with a 17" bit; that's a huge bit and it costs a lot of money. It's thousands of dollars for one. They used several bits to drill the hole.

      Drilling directionally takes a lot longer to do for various reasons. The biggest reason was because they were drilling directly into a Granite formation. Granite is a hard, silica-rich, igneous rock. It does not break apart easily like Sandstone. It takes a long time to drill, when I was there, we were making between 5-10 feet/hour - at that rate, a 5000'-8000' deep hole takes a LONG time to drill, especially with the directional part factored in. And that Granite just chews up those big 17" bits, which means you have to replace them a lot.

      Then you have to pay for the mud. The mud was a water-based system designed to lubricate the hole, keep it from collapsing, and use it to treat any problems. Like anything else, the longer they're producing mud, the more it costs. I've seen mud bills over a million dollars on one well before.

      Then you have to pay all the people on location. The Company Man, sort of the Foreman of a location, costs at least 2000-4000 dollars every day he's out there. You have to pay the Roughnecks every day they're out there to drill, the mud engineers, geologists, safety guys, etc. And since this was a far more scientifically oriented job than most wells drilled, there was a lot of other cool stuff and personnel that had to be paid.

      In the end, we're talking millions of dollars. Millions and millions. I don't really have an exact price to tell you, I was just a contractor on part of the job. But it was a really long job, I feel safe guessing at least 10 million dollars.

      And that's just for one hole. If you can streamline the process and figure out where delays happened and if you can fix those delays on the next job, you'll be able to do subsequent wells cheaper.

      --
      Give a man a fire and he'll be warm for a day. But light a man on fire and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
    3. Re:That would make sense by gEvil+(beta) · · Score: 4, Informative

      You know how you can tell that an earthquake is going to occur by a city? IT'S BUILT ON A FREAKING FAULT LINE. Wouldn't it just make more sense to make building a bit more earthquake proof? Why do so many people REBUILD by a fault line and then say "ZOMFG I hope another tragedy like this doesn't occur. Might as well douse yourself in gasoline and hope a spark never goes off.

      And yet the largest recorded quake in the Southeastern US occurred right in the middle of a tectonic plate...

      --
      This guy's the limit!
    4. Re:That would make sense by halsver · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Think of the bigger picture man! Millions of dollars in damage could be saved from such a predictive system. A few obvious examples are:
        Any major industrial process that handles dangerous materials - Hello refineries, Natural Gas Providers...
        Museums and Private owners - art and sculptures could be saved
        And the poor china-shop owners!

      Fires that result from earthquakes can increase the damages from the quake significantly. By having early warning, measures could be taken to avoid these fires entirely.

      Take it from a Californian, we'd really like to know beforehand!

      --
      Roughly half my comments are never submitted. You may be reading the better half...
    5. Re:That would make sense by IronMagnus · · Score: 1

      FTFWA...

      "The earthquake is believed to have occurred on faults formed during the break-up of Pangea. Similar faults are found all along the east coast of North America."

      Just because it was in the middle of a modern day tectonic plate, doesn't mean there were no faults there.

    6. Re:That would make sense by Goaway · · Score: 2, Funny

      The largest recorded quake in the middle of a tectonic plate occurred right in the middle of a tectonic plate? That's remarkable!

    7. Re:That would make sense by gEvil+(beta) · · Score: 4, Insightful

      No kidding. But when you look at the geologic record, you realize that there are faults EVERYWHERE. So using Hojima's logic, we can't build anywhere....

      --
      This guy's the limit!
    8. Re:That would make sense by Missing_dc · · Score: 4, Insightful

      In our sue-happy society, the company or oganization who piloted a system like this would be sued off the face of the planet if they missed one decent quake.

      --
      How amazed would you be to suddenly find that you just forgot what I wrote and you needed to reread my post.... again.
    9. Re:That would make sense by cowscows · · Score: 3, Insightful

      And here in New Orleans we'd love to have some better levees which could've saved us from billions of dollars worth of flood damage. Unfortunately for both of us, the powers that be aren't particularly interested in sacrificing now for the sake of later.

      --

      One time I threw a brick at a duck.

    10. Re:That would make sense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'd mod you up if only I had the power...

    11. Re:That would make sense by EdIII · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Fires that result from earthquakes can increase the damages from the quake significantly. By having early warning, measures could be taken to avoid these fires entirely.

      Uhhhhhhhhh... How Exactly?

      You can't avoid the fire. Buildings can't move. People Can. You can't vent the gas in all the pipe lines either, which would seem to be of primary concern. You would spend millions and millions of dollars trying to vent gas into the atmosphere, which has its own unavoidable complications. Fires happen when gas lines break, not their endpoints leaking. Shutting off the gas won't save you either, as the lines are still full.

      Early warning will save lives but it will not prevent property damage effectively, especially damage resulting from fire. Maybe the china-shop owners and museums could take everything down onto the ground or outside, but the fires will happen regardless.

      Major industrial processes would be in the same boat. I just don't see what measures they can effectively take to reduce damage other than construction technology. Construction technology has nothing to do with early warning; It is about being able to take the stresses involved in an earthquake.

    12. Re:That would make sense by rts008 · · Score: 1

      Who knows what 'this system will cost'?

      From TFA: "The team says we are a long way from routine tremor forecasts but the latest findings hold out hope that such services might be possible one day."

      When 'one day' happens then ask your asinine question.

      That's one of the problems with today's society: when INSTANT gratification is not fast enough.

      *stupid git*

      --
      Down With Slashdot BETA!!! I've been around the corner and seen the oliphant; you can only abuse me from your perspecti
    13. Re:That would make sense by icegreentea · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Set up this system in Japan? Some of the densest populations in the world living right on active fault lines. They've done what they could with earthquake proofing, but extra warning certainly can't hurt. Given the sheer density in population and buildings there, spending a couple hundred million (or maybe even a billion) could prove to be a wonderful investment.

    14. Re:That would make sense by rts008 · · Score: 0, Troll

      Fuck your levees, build ABOVE sea level. That could have saved you from billions worth of flood damage. 'Cause we always done it this way' is not a defensible excuse.

      Ask your state on how God should have prevented this.

        Maybe your god foresaw this shit and was giving you a 'heads up' with Katrina. Get a clue!

      --
      Down With Slashdot BETA!!! I've been around the corner and seen the oliphant; you can only abuse me from your perspecti
    15. Re:That would make sense by cowscows · · Score: 1

      More than 50% of New Orleans is above sea level, including many of the parts that flooded. You know nothing about which you speak.

      And thanks for linking it to the ridiculous ID nonsense that is entirely irrelevant. NOLA is one of the most liberal cities in the USA, it had nothing to do with that.

      --

      One time I threw a brick at a duck.

    16. Re:That would make sense by rts008 · · Score: 0, Troll

      Then why the national cry for help?

      As far as the ID nonsense you speak of, reply to your own lawmakers about this load of crap, not me. They are the ones that passed this turd into law.

      NOLA? get the news for the rest of your state. it has nothing to do with me or the rest of the country- get a clue.

      --
      Down With Slashdot BETA!!! I've been around the corner and seen the oliphant; you can only abuse me from your perspecti
    17. Re:That would make sense by AJWM · · Score: 1

      Well, not anywhere on the ground, anyway. No earthquakes in space, though.

      --
      -- Alastair
    18. Re:That would make sense by maypull · · Score: 1

      He probably meant plate boundary. The San Andreas fault represents the boundary between the Pacific and North American plates, and movement along plate boundaries is both more common and of a usually higher magnitude than inner-plate fault movements.

      It's a game of playing the statistics and risk, like anything else.

    19. Re:That would make sense by stormguard2099 · · Score: 1

      holy shit, I am so gonna write that scifi novel!

      --
      http://greenobyl.com/ please.... think of the children!!
    20. Re:That would make sense by beckerist · · Score: 1

      Space quake! Staring Kevin Bacon and Alf, two strangers caught in a struggle to remain still. I can see it now!

      Alf: We can't leave the ship, it's only six degrees outside! Hah! I kill me!

    21. Re:That would make sense by psydeshow · · Score: 1

      Shut off the gas. Fire averted.

    22. Re:That would make sense by wrfelts · · Score: 2, Informative

      That would be like rebuilding a hurricane flooded city that is below sea level and only protected by weak levies... like that's going to happen! ... oh wait....

    23. Re:That would make sense by treeves · · Score: 1
      It doesn't even look like it is in the middle of a tectonic plate. Looks fairly close to the southern edge of the North American Plate.

      The middle looks like it would be somewhere in way northern Canada or the Arctic Ocean, depending on how you define "middle" (center-of-mass, etc.)

      --
      ...the future crusty old bastards are already drinking the Kool-Aid.
    24. Re:That would make sense by EdIII · · Score: 1

      That was my point. That does not work. There is gas in the lines. Shutting off the gas does not make the gas magically disappear.

      Those fires happen when the lines themselves get cut.

    25. Re:That would make sense by hurfy · · Score: 1

      Well, you would have to shut it off well upstream. How far ahead do you cut off everyone's gas? How much warning to how far ahead do you give industrial customers that can't have it cut in the middle of processing? Cutting it off far enough upstream to do any good means cutting it off to hospitals etc also. What if there a gas burning power plants nearby, do you cut that and peoples electricity also?

      For that matter shouldn't you turn off the power so it can't ignite the fires?

      Now that you turned off everyones gas and power....What do you do when the prediction was wrong or it was 3.0 earthquake and a million people are screaming at you, not to mention sueing you ?!?

    26. Re:That would make sense by AJWM · · Score: 1

      Heh, go for it.

      --
      -- Alastair
  2. Duh! by NuclearError · · Score: 5, Funny

    They go from stationary rocks to moving rocks.

    --
    Nuclear engineers build weapons. Civil engineers build targets.
  3. Not good by jbeaupre · · Score: 5, Funny

    Rock-paper-scissors is ruined if you can predict rock. Neither player will ever use it, so no one will use paper either. You'll be left doing scissors over and over forever.

    Wait, oh, nevermind.

    --
    The world is made by those who show up for the job.
    1. Re:Not good by Yvan256 · · Score: 1

      From the Seinfeld episode "The Stand-In":
      "Rock paper scissors match." - Mickey
      "Alright! Rock beats paper!" - Kramer
      "I thought paper covered rock." - Mickey
      "Nah, rock flys right through paper." - Kramer
      "Well, what beats rock?" - Mickey
      "Nothing beats rock." - Kramer

    2. Re:Not good by ag3ntugly · · Score: 0

      You know, I always wondered how a rock could break a pair of scissors and fail miserably at the relatively simple task of tearing a piece of paper.
      Paper dulls the scissors, paper wins.
      Scissors can be sharpend on a rock, scissors win.
      Rock can rip a hole in the paper, rock wins.
      See, it still works!

      --
      i have a roll of electrical tape.
    3. Re:Not good by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The key is that if the paper covers the rock quickly enough, the rock cannot build up enough moment to fly through the paper, and is subsequently trapped. Scissors cannot be trapped because they can always cut their way out.

    4. Re:Not good by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nonsense! The paper could wrap the scissors so tight that they cannot open.

    5. Re:Not good by EdIII · · Score: 2, Funny

      Just use cockroach, shoe, nuclear bomb.

      shoe beats cockroach, nuclear bomb beats the shoe, but the cockroach beats the nuclear bomb.

  4. Changes in rolls noticed before bellyaches by nategoose · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    Changes in rolls noticed before bellyaches

  5. Re:Dupe - Pablo Franciso style by zehaeva · · Score: 1

    "GET DOWN AGAIN!"

  6. why granite drill? where is iron? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    steel iron does many things in changes. why choose granite to drill as predictor?

    1. Re:why granite drill? where is iron? by 4D6963 · · Score: 1

      steel iron does many things in changes. why choose granite to drill as predictor?

      A wild stab in the dark : because granite is made of quartz which is notorious for its piezoelectric properties and these characteristics would be affected by the changes this article is talking about?

      --
      You just got troll'd!
  7. Just like fusion by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

    Just like fusion - earthquake prediction is always fifty years away.

  8. By "powers that be," you must mean... by Valdrax · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Unfortunately for both of us, the powers that be aren't particularly interested in sacrificing now for the sake of later.

    a.k.a. The voters -- especially those who are all about tax cuts.

    --
    If it's for-profit but free, you're not the customer -- you're the product (e.g., the Slashdot Beta's "audience").
  9. stop waiting by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Impose a local surtax, a buck a drink and a buck a plate of food, goes directly to levee repair and reinforcement, and try not to make it top heavy with handling fees and management and governing the money, get it to the engineers and workers who can do the work. Route around the stoopid feds, they have proven to be at best only half way effective, every single time, no matter the situation. The problem is in that cesspool of failure called DC and how money gets allocated, so try and divorce yourself from DC somehow. I mean really, look at how *bad* DC, the actual district, is governed, it is the only pure fed governed area, and people think they can somehow govern and run the whole nation, or even worse let the UN do it globally?? say WHUT? Work local, then you have your own best interests at heart. NOLA still gets enough tourists, even at a buck a whack it own't be that much more they spend, and it goes to a good cause and I bet most of them would understand the fee and agree with it, so they can come back safely again and again for the good eats and partying. That's the only reason they go there in the first place!

  10. PC case mod with a dremel tool by rts008 · · Score: 1

    *Disclaimer* I live in Oklahoma - I feel your pain, You are preaching to the unaware and clueless sectors here.

    The average /.'er has no clue what is involved with with what it takes to get an oilfield 'online'., much less the economics involved.
    I have several pumping stations on my property and it is frustrating to 'clue in' the rest of the country in what's involved to get a station 'online'(ie:getting oil out of the ground and to 'something useful')

    The whole 'get some money now, and fsck you' and fsck the future attitude is prevalent here with the land owners. It is a difficult hurdle to overcome.

    Don't get me wrong, I would welcome any VIABLE alternatives, but until that happens I will support WHATEVER means of PRACTICAL energy we have to utilize.

     

    --
    Down With Slashdot BETA!!! I've been around the corner and seen the oliphant; you can only abuse me from your perspecti
  11. It's nothing new by Scr3wFace · · Score: 1

    Cajun's have long used rocks to predict all kinds of natural events.

    Rock hot = Sunny
    Rock wet = Rain
    Rock gone = Hurricane
    Rock shake = Earthquake

    1. Re:It's nothing new by 4D6963 · · Score: 1

      It's called post-prediction. We have all the techniques we need for that, thank you.

      --
      You just got troll'd!
  12. system costs 20 million by peter303 · · Score: 1

    You have drill a 3 mile hole to get it down into the fault. And take 20 years to convince the NSF to fund it and California regulators to permit it (what the SAFOD project took).

  13. More interest in this please by 4D6963 · · Score: 1

    Interesting, and considered the stakes and how few of such methods have had any sort of success, I wish people (governments/universities) would spend more money on that sort of research.

    I'm thinking in particular of this technique that relies on electrotelluric signals to predict earthquakes a few hours before they occur. It's been a controversial technique ever since it appeared in the 1980s, and that's the problem, it's controversial. If we had put more effort into investigating such possibilities we would know for sure what it's worth by now.

    Earthquakes regularly kill hundred thousands of people, and it's just that sort of technique that could save them. And it's not just people in Asia. The stakes are also pretty high in Japan, Greece and California. So why ain't there any array of electrotelluric signal sensors in California to figure that sort of thing out??

    --
    You just got troll'd!