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2008 Is the Coldest Year of the 21st Century

dtjohnson writes "Data from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office suggests that 2008 will be an unusually cold year due to the La Nina effect in the western Pacific ocean. Not to worry, though, as the La Nina effect has faded recently so its effect on next year's temperatures will be reduced. However, another natural cycle, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, is predicted to hold global temperatures steady for the next decade before global warming takes our planet into new warmth. If these predictions are correct, there must be a lot of planetary heat being stored away somewhere ... unless the heat output from the sun is decreasing rather than increasing or the heat being absorbed by the earth is decreasing due to changes in the earth's albedo."

39 of 1,039 comments (clear)

  1. Global Warming by Dayze!Confused · · Score: 1, Interesting

    It has seemed very strange to me seeing all the hype about global warming and such since I was young, yet seeing years like these recent ones where we are hitting some pretty long cold stretches, this year particularly. Are we or are we not actually having "global warming"?

    --
    "All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent." [Thomas Jefferson]
    1. Re:Global Warming by blueg3 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Climatologists use fairly long-term data.

      Perhaps you're confusing that with your "data", which appears to have exactly 3 data points, one per year.

  2. Or low sunspots cause another "little ice age" by Ungrounded+Lightning · · Score: 3, Interesting

    ... unless the heat output from the sun is decreasing rather than increasing or the heat being absorbed by the earth is decreasing due to changes in the earth's albedo.

    TFA missed one: ... or the current sunspot shortage continues, as it did in the "little ice age", causing another one.

    Given that, by at least one model, we only have maybe 8 or so centuries until the fossil carbon runs out and we plunge back onto the orbital-mechanics driven end of the current interglacial and dive into a BIG ice age (whose steepening slope we may have been holding off with greenhouse gases since about the dawn of agriculture) we might not see any significant "global warming" at all.

    All of this is assuming that we don't establish enough space industrialization to let us tune the insolation and just FIX the issue. (Which seems likely. The current government prescriptions for patching "global warming" would destroy the wealth and technology bases needed to drive a space program.)

    And also assuming that polywell, POPS (Periodically Oscillating Plasma Sphere), and other fusion power approaches ALL don't work out. (Cheap aneutronic hydrogen fusion power would drive fossil-carbon based fuels out of the market for most uses and provide the energy needed to drive several technologies that could tune the Earth's temperature.)

    --
    Bantam Dominique roosters crow a four-note song. Once you've heard it as "Happy BIRTHday" you can't NOT hear it that way
  3. Silly to reject climate change by j_w_d · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The climate does nothing but change. The debate is always about which direction it is going. Long-term ice records indicate it should be cooling. CO2 theorists say it should be warming. ! Could we be heading into a period of climate stability as trends cancel???

    --
    ------ The only greater hazard to your liberty than n politicians is n+1 politicians.
  4. An easily deflated peddler of liberalism disguised by tjstork · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I read his last book cover to cover, and it was pretty much crap, and, ironically, this "sequel" actually proves it.

    In Guns, Germs and Steel, Jared went out of his way to show that some cultures were stupider than others because of all of these manner of environmental forces.

    The comparitive historic poverty of Africa has -nothing- to do with the choices Africans made, for example. It came down to a sad and unfortunate combination of natural resources, and they were oh so helpless.

    Conversely, early civilizations did not come to dominate the world for a time because of a culture that was better at world domination, instead, they dominated because every other culture had some lame excuse for not taking mathematics from basic algebra into the calculus or some other technological advance.

    Of course, Jared even tips his hand as to the point of the book. It couldn't be that some cultures had adopted values that lead to bad decision making, that, would why open up the whole can of worms about cultural worth and thus invite old arguments about cultural superiority. No, no no, we can't have that. But...

    In this new book, it turns out that our culture -must- change, and -must- make new choices, in order to save our precious mother earth. The question is then, if there are smart moves to make, and dumb moves to make, is it all remotely possible that European cultures of 1500-1914, American culture of 1800-1960, Chinese culture up until around 1500, Roman culture up till around 200AD, all had some sort of spark of superiority that allowed them to make good decisions and good choices when confronted with environmental change, whereas, other cultures have not?

    Let's think about the gobbledygook we right, Jared!

    --
    This is my sig.
  5. Re:Stupid sunspots...( or lack thereof ) by tjstork · · Score: 3, Interesting

    No, you can't. The only thing that we can really know for sure, is if, the lack of sunspots continues for say a year, maybe two years, AND, the climate temperatures deviate from what the climate models would otherwise predict. While I'm not 100% sold on the climate models that we have, and am sort of skeptical of them, I'm not jumping into bed with those skeptics who would dismiss AGW as bunk. It would seem to me that those skeptics should have their own climate models that have something we can test. As it is, all we have is this notion that there might be some link between sunspots and climate, but not much of a physical link that we can really go out and measure and correlate to climate, and we won't have that until those climate models we do have fail spectacularly. So, right now, the La Nina is taking the rap for the present global cooling, but, La Nina has been over for a few months now, and the earth's temperatures are either slightly declining or flat, according to the latest satellite temperatures. If we have falling temperatures for at least year we can worry, and if we start falling faster, than we can really worry, but for today, all we can really do is note that if it snows unusually, toss out a link on Slashdot to sunspots and make some snarky comments about how Hansen's FORTRAN really blows.

    --
    This is my sig.
  6. Re:The straw man is dead by Jorophose · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Isn't skeptical for something that has yet to happen, and denial for things that have happened?

    Holocaust denial is definately different than skepticism about John Titor or about Nuclear Winter or about the Big Crunch or the Large Hadron Collider.

    Whereas denial is outright "This did not happen." book-shut style, skepticism is "I don't believe this happened." with some wiggle room.

  7. Re:Oh goody... by LWATCDR · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Funny but that isn't what people have been saying at all. I remember people saying that the extra active hurricane seasons where proof of and or caused by global warming. Now we have an extra cold winter and that is proof of and or caused by global warming.
    I didn't used to be a doubter in the idea of climate change I just didn't like the religion of climate change. I would have to say that at this point that we have a lot data that we need should shift through.
    Frankly a year long sample shift is not what I call a small swing that shows instability. I would like to see a few more years data at this point.
    It is still probably a good idea to cut carbon output but I would say that the level of uncertainty is gone up not down.

    --
    See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
  8. Re:gore by Curunir_wolf · · Score: 5, Interesting

    But what will I do with all my "Gore 2012" buttons?

    Ha.

    Still, remember that the Gore stance is roughly (yeah, it's exaggerated, but roughly) in line with the science.

    The global warming platform from the Republican party is to shoot into the air and yell "yeeehaww!" a bunch.

    Maybe so, but gas prices aren't $4.00 a gallon because rednecks shot their guns. What you are paying at the pump is the direct result of environmentalist's policies fed by the FUD spread by AlGore.

    Meh. Not entirely accurate, really. If Al Gore's "recommendations" had really been followed by a large proportion of Americans (ignoring for now his own failure to follow them), demand for energy should have decreased significantly. With everybody switching to more efficient lighting and appliances, driving less and buying more fuel efficient cars, etc., chances are that energy prices probably would not have spiked the way they did.

    The NIMBYs and the environmental lobby that slowed US drilling and new power plant construction to a crawl and completely stopped any increased capacity for oil refineries and other infrastructure were the real culprits in keeping energy supplies too far below the demand curve. Not that Gore had any solutions for helping improve energy supplies.

    Of course, the big jump in oil prices has more to do with the declining value of the US dollar than anything, but that's another issue altogether.

    --
    "Somebody has to do something. It's just incredibly pathetic it has to be us."
    --- Jerry Garcia
  9. The 1830 Problem by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 4, Interesting

    It's not going to just get warmer over short time periods.. It always amazes me that folks don't realize that.

    What surprises me even more is how few people know that we've been experiencing global warming since 1830. AFAIK, we don't currently have a good model that can explain this.

    --
    My God, it's Full of Source!
    OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
    1. Re:The 1830 Problem by Snocone · · Score: 2, Interesting

      It's not absolute numbers that appears to be the first order correlation -- it's length of solar cycle. Just so happens that extremely long cycles tend to also have very low numbers, so it's a fairly convenient shorthand.

      In any case, it appears that my credibility regarding solar models as alternatives to AGW orthodoxy is in the middle of being put to the test; they've just added 6 months to the predicted beginning of SC24 because, well, because nobody has a fucking clue what's going on:

      http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/08/21/australian-space-weather-agency-pushes-solar-cycle-24-up-6-months/

      If the global temperature anomaly suddenly starts shooting back up despite the ever-lengthening-SC-23, then I'll stop bringing up solar explanations.

      If it continues to decline in lockstep with a quietening Sun -- yet ever more quickly increasing C02! -- as the last year and a half has been demonstrating ... well, that's just going to keep getting harder and harder for the AGW-fixated alarmists to explain away, isn't it now?

  10. Re:Oh goody... by Curunir_wolf · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Mod parent up.. The earth's climate is a control system. As it becomes unstable, you will start seeing more records: cold, hot, rain, drought, record single day temperature differentials, etc.

    Which, conveniently, lets just about any type of weather be attributed to global warming (or is that climate change?)

    Which is exactly what is happening anyway. Every big storm or unusual meteorological event these days is automatically assumed to be yet another affect of global climate change. According to some, it's even causing forest fires and earthquakes.

    NPR has a whole series where they go to some part of the world each week, and talk about how climate change is affecting the people there in some way or another, and how the people are coping (or are doomed).

    --
    "Somebody has to do something. It's just incredibly pathetic it has to be us."
    --- Jerry Garcia
  11. Three Alaskian Volcanos by Tekoneiric · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Could have something to do with three volcanos going off in Alaska and the Aleutian islands. I've noticed the temperature in Texas drop and we've gotten a lot of rain after the 3rd one went off and cold fronts have come down from that area.

    --
    *It's not what you can do for the Dark Side but what the Dark Side can do for you!*
  12. Re:Oh goody... by Cerebus · · Score: 3, Interesting

    It's funny the weatherman can't predict whether it will rain in a week yet the GW movement knows the exact temperature 100 years from now.

    I was going to expend a lot of space explaining the basics of chaos theory mathematics but then I decided to let someone else do it.

    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=204

    Although ultimately chaos will kill a weather forecast, this does not necessarily prevent long-term prediction of the climate. By climate, we mean the statistics of weather, averaged over suitable time and perhaps space scales (more on this below). We cannot hope to accurately predict the temperature in Swindon at 9am on the 23rd July 2050, but we can be highly confident that the average temperature in the UK in that year will be substantially higher in July than in January. Of course, we don't need a model to work that out - historical observations already give strong evidence for this prediction. But models based on physical principles also reproduce the response to seasonal and spatial changes in radiative forcing fairly well, which is one of the many lines of evidence that supports their use in their prediction of the response to anthropogenic forcing.

    Fortunately, the calculation of climatic variables (i.e., long-term averages) is much easier than weather forecasting, since weather is ruled by the vagaries of stochastic fluctuations, while climate is not. Imagine a pot of boiling water. A weather forecast is like the attempt to predict where the next bubble is going to rise (physically this is an initial value problem). A climate statement would be that the average temperature of the boiling water is 100ÂC at normal pressure, while it is only 90ÂC at 2,500 meters altitude in the mountains, due to the lower pressure (that is a boundary value problem).

    Now you either accept that a chaotic system can be characterized statistically, or you have to admit that you don't believe in computers--because this is the *same math* that described the quantum physics that makes most of the modern world work. If you're going to accept that it works in one realm you have to accept that it works in the other.

    --
    -- Cerebus
  13. Re:gore by Ravon+Rodriguez · · Score: 3, Interesting

    There was a story a couple of years ago about how Al Gore supposedly uses an enormous amount of energy himself, but buys carbon offsets to, well, offset it. Personally, I think carbon offsets should be reserved for companies that produce carbon during the normal operation of their business, and an individual buying them is working against the spirit of the system.

    --
    Jesus loves me, he loves me a bunch, because he always puts Jiffy in my lunch.
  14. Re:Oh goody... by Snocone · · Score: 2, Interesting

    It is still probably a good idea to cut carbon output

    As a matter of fact, it isn't. Ask anyone who runs a greenhouse. C02 is plant food. Plants are good. QED.

    The one actually provable consequence of the recent increase in C02 levels is a 6% increase in biomass over the last 30 years. You whippersnappers are probably too young to remember, but back in the 70s one of the Environmentalist Crises Du Jour(tm) was desertification. And, indeed, it actually was a pretty serious problem. But since then, desertification has reversed itself by over 400 million square kilometers, due to that 6% increase in biomass, which in case you don't understand that phrasing can be stated colloquially as "a fuckload more plants".

    Mind you, there's lots of other excellent reasons to stop industrial emissions, but reducing C02 is not one of them. The demonstrated benefits of increasing biomass wildly outweigh any provable negative consequences. (And pretty much all of the unprovable ones the Chicken Littles try to terrify us with to boot.)

  15. Re:Coldest year my ass.... by cayenne8 · · Score: 4, Interesting
    "AC? Heat? What is this? We don't have AC in Colorado, and I wouldn't want to be the guy caught actually TURNING ON his heater.."

    I gotta say, I was completely shocked, when about 10 years ago or so, I visited a friend that lived in the far NE of the US. I was amazed to find out, there were houses...LOTS of them that didn't actually have air conditioning?!?!

    Growing up in the south, I'd always known everyone to have AC. The oddball ones were the ones that didn't have central heat and air...although after I moved to the NOLA area, in so many old houses, there are a lot of places with window units, but, I'd just never thought there were places in the US that didn't have AC at all. Then again...I'd never been exposed to people that actually used heating oil before as a means of heat. I'd always grown up with gas heating, or possibly electric...

    Definitely some strange things and ways of life up there in 'yankee land'.

    :)

    --
    Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.........
  16. Re:gore by denttford · · Score: 1, Interesting

    More interestingly, in a simple four/five word response, with identical meaning, the only word in common was burn.

    Very bright and human robotic overlords, those.

    --

    Leben Sie jetzt die Fragen.
  17. Re:Oh goody... by pipingguy · · Score: 2, Interesting

    PPPS: leave climatology to *Gasp* actual climatologists!

    "Climatology", as a discipline, has existed for how long? OTOH, they have fancy, slick computer animations, so they must be right.

  18. Re:Let's have some context, please by nadaou · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Who modded up this fine example of anti-logic trolling as insightful? For shame.

    Study, learn, & love Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit:
      http://www.xenu.net/archive/baloney_detection.html

    And get "How to lie with statistics" from your local library if you have not yet read it.

    Folks, it's not the change in temperature which is extraordinary and unprecedented in the geological record, it's the rate-of-change.

    --
    ~.~
    I'm a peripheral visionary.
  19. Re:Oh goody... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    That's right - everything: cold temperatures, rain storms, ice in the mid-east, floods, famine, no matter what is happening, it is positive proof of global warming. It's obvious.

    I just don't understand why people don't all appreciate Global warming. Am glad the fellow who contributed the blurb added the "not to worry, though" phrase which reassured me that just because this year was cold, as was last year, that Global Warming is still safe. If 10 years of temperatures show us getting colder- as the past 7 years, it still means global warming is a real threat. Even if it takes a hundred years, we will get warm.
        Welcome to the land of the mental Zombies.

  20. As someone living in Australia... by kevingolding2001 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    ...and thus experiencing winter right now, I'd just like to say NO SHIT SHERLOCK!!
    We're freezing our butts off down here. Record low temperatures, frost for the first time in many places, etc.

  21. Re:Oh goody... by TapeCutter · · Score: 2, Interesting

    "The GW movement is starting to sound an awful lot like Humpty Dumpty in Alice in Wonderland. [snip] "When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less."

    I don't care what Humpty Dumpty said, you are still displaying gross ignorance by equating the terms 'climate' and 'weather'.

    --
    And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  22. All but one point by MarkusQ · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I pretty much agree with you, except for one point:

    Only oil and nuclear have limited supply.

    Nuclear doesn't have a limited supply in any realistic sense. This is just part of the massive anti-nuclear FUD brought to us by big oil & friends. In fact, it was one of the first, since nuclear was the first serious alternative to fossil fuels. The only reason nuclear seems limited is because we've let ourselves get boxed in to thinking in terms of one of the most wasteful and dangerous fuel cycles imaginable, which relies on comparatively rare feedstock and produces much more waste than it needs to*.

    In a rational world, what we now call "nuclear waste" would be known as "fuel reserves" and we'd be set for the foreseeable future.

    --MarkusQ

    * But still nothing compared to what fossil fuels produce. There isn't a coal plant on the planet that could get an operating license as a nuclear plant, given the amount of radioactive carbon they dump into the air.

  23. Re:Coldest year my ass.... by Zancarius · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Here in the mountains of New Mexico, air conditioning also not even much of a consideration either. Of course, much of this depends on construction of the house, too. Adobe-style construction (thick-walled, usually with cement and a fair bit of insulation nowadays) tends to keep things in a wonderfully comfortable zone. There are some hot days here and there, but all in all it's not that bad. We don't get the high humidity like you would in the south. Having been to South Australia on several occasions during the summer where it can get fairly humid, I can attest that I'd rather contend with the hot, dry weather than hot and humid (ugh!). On the other hand, I usually blame my weird sense of humor on oxygen deprivation at the higher altitudes. ;)

    (I was intending to mod you up, but I felt the urge to forgo my mod points and comment instead! Doh!)

    --
    He who has no .plan has small finger. ~ Confucius on UNIX
  24. The Caveat by Zancarius · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Most "carbon-neutral" energy forms can be generated locally. Windmills use the wind in your area. Solar panels use the sunlight from your roof. This is also true for geothermal, ocean-wave, and bio-fueled energy.

    *snip*

    Which would you rather be remembered as: the generation that ignored the problem until it was too late, or the generation that set your state/country/civilization on a long-term course of prosperity?

    It's just a shame that the other breeds of environmentalists happen to think certain species of birds are a bit more important than the real estate wind generators or molten salt solar plants would take up. I certainly won't debate the need for developing clean energy solutions, but at some point, you have to cut the ropes and say "enough is enough." Using ecological buzzwords is cute and all, but if the West doesn't pull its head out of its withering anal cavity, we may as well kiss electricity goodbye. There are plenty of niche groups that are standing in the way of everything because they feel we need to go back to pre-industrial population levels--to hell with the 6-point-something billion people we already have on this rock. No matter what happens, it'll never be enough. And if that's not frustrating, look at the various stories popping up here and there about locals who absolutely hate the noise wind generators make when they're running.

    Fine. Maybe I'm just cynical. But trust me: Sooner or later, these wonderful carbon-neutral solutions are going to be put on a standstill because some fringe group is upset that their favorite little plot of land is being destroyed. At least, that's how it's worked out here in the southwest. There are a lot of the "not in my backyard" types who will do anything to halt human progress. I should think that we need to adopt sensible energy policies, but the greatest hurdle comes from the same crowd who want to save the planet--usually by suicide. (VHEMt comes to mind, if I remembered the acronym correctly.)

    --
    He who has no .plan has small finger. ~ Confucius on UNIX
  25. Re:gore by kisak · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Actually, the republicans have been in charge for years doing less than nothing to get the US of their oil addiction, and now they want to take away tax credits for renewable energies, while they have given several huge tax breaks for oil companies over the yers, companies who making more money than any other corporations in the world history. And when the shit hits the fan, the repubs blame liberals for not letting them drill off-shore in 2015. Talk about leadership.

    --

    --- guns don't kill people, people with guns kill people ---

  26. It's not that simple, I'm affraid by Moraelin · · Score: 3, Interesting

    It's not that simple, I'm affraid.

    1. At the very least the cost, or "danger", in acting rashly upon a fairy tale to please some cultists is to not do something that would actually work. At worst it's doing something outright unproductive, that compounds the problem in the long run or creates a bigger problem.

    As the stereotypical example, take Easter Island. Instead of doing what would have worked (start replanting trees) they did what the priests told them (cut more trees to build and haul more statues to the gods, 'cause the gods would surely take care of all problems.) Eventually the problem got so bad that they couldn't even make enough fishing vessels any more. Maybe stopping and thinking before acting couldn't have been worse.

    I find that to be, ironically, a decent metaphor for _both_ extremes of the climate debate. Both have their a priori "truth" set in stone, both don't actually do real science (in real science, no truth is set in stone, and everything is falsifiable), and both would rather act now, goddammit, instead of at least trying to understand the big model. I can almost imagine a bunch of Easter Island tribesmen doing the same, waving fists and shouting slogans to act now to please the gods, and calling anyone names if he even tries debating the already decided orthodoxy.

    2. To also answer the question what is the danger: the economy is already in a precarious position in most western countries, having worked on, essentially, over-spending ever since the Great Depression. We don't really have a better model to replace it with.

    The old laissez-faire model essentially died in the Great Depression. Not that it was that great a model to start with. It produced increasingly erratic swings between boom and crash, with each boom setting the stage for the following crash. Increasingly more money and resources were going not into satisfying people's needs (which, may I remind, was how the Wealth Of Nations was supposed to be measured), but into rebuilding the industry after the last crash. The actual standard of living for workers decline through the 19'th and early 20'th century, with the general theme being demanding more hours work for less pay.

    (And it's funny to see Libertarians pining for _that_ model. But I digress.)

    Even if some claim (rather unproven, but ok) that it was the corrective measures that finally caused the big crash, it still just wasn't a that great model anyway. The swings were getting bigger and bigger, and the whole situation shittier and shittier. Even _if_ it would have bombed a bit later without the corrective actions, bomb it would have. And it wasn't much fun to be an employee in that model even before it bombing.

    Some also tried other stunts in the meantime, like supply-side economics, but even those failed to work better than the current model.

    Or, of course, we could actually be Keynesian as Keynes actually intended it to work: overspend in times of crisis, yes, but cut back and pay the debts in times of boom. No government yet managed to do that, and it could be argued that it would make for a very unpopular government to cut back, say, welfare, _because_ the economy is doing great. Plus other problems.

    But, of course, adding yet another permanent burden to it, really doesn't help there.

    Basically most first world economies are in a bigger trouble than they seem. We all _seem_ to do great, but we're steadily heading towards the end of the model that makes it work. At some point, the debt gets so big that you can't go on like that any more. And all we've been doing is postpone the next crash. Quite successfully and for a remarkably long time, duly noted, but that's what we've been doing. And each averted crisis added even more debt. Not just in the USA, but everywhere.

    Fear what will happen when we all no longer have the reserves to avert the next one, because it won't be pretty. Unless you're at least, say, 90 years old, you have only seen minor crises, held small by having the money to throw at them. To

    --
    A polar bear is a cartesian bear after a coordinate transform.
  27. Re:Coldest year my ass.... by Bush+Pig · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I guess South Australia could be considered humid compared to New Mexico (I wouldn't know for sure, not having been there, but I'll bow to your superior knowledge), but those of us who live here think of it as dry. Now, Sydney, or Darwin in the wet season, that's humid. You can watch the water come out of the air onto your skin as it cools in the evenings.

    --
    What a long, strange trip it's been.
  28. Depleting nuclear reserves predates civilization by Pfhorrest · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I don't see us running out of thorium anytime soon

    This raises another good point, regarding the 'scarcity' of nuclear fuels alluded to a few level up in this thread. All the radioactive material we could be using to turn water into steam to power electrical generators is already sitting there burning at the same rate underground right now, it's just heating the surrounding rocks in a more diffuse spread than if it was all stuck into a reactor together.

    We will run out of nuclear fuels at the same point in time whether we're using them or not, cause by their very natures, radioactive materials are always sitting there radiating. It's just a question of whether we take advantage of that energy while it's there, or just let it warm a lot of rocks a little bit until it all burns out.

    --
    -Forrest Cameranesi, Geek of all Trades
    "I am Sam. Sam I am. I do not like trolls, flames, or spam."
  29. Re:Ignoring the real problem by Bongo · · Score: 3, Interesting

    If your house was designed properly, it wouldn't even need a huge-assed A/C.

    Architects have known about these techniques for decades, and there is one problem: in the UK, for example, the housing stock is replaced at about 1% per year. So we will be stuck with housing that can't use this tech for many decades to come. I wish it wasn't so, and that's the state of things. All the homes I have lived in in the UK would have to have been demolished and rebuilt from the ground up, including the local neighborhood, to really become an autonomous, off the grid, facility. The avoidance of doing the numbers has created a generation of eco-conscious people just switching off chargers, but they don't hesitate to take a job where they will have to travel more, or go forth and have more kids. Environmentalism needs to be more than feeling, it has to be a bottom line, and that means looking at the cold hard numbers. People who promote solutions that will take 50 or 100 or 150 years to implement are not going to win any credibility.

  30. Re:gore by gfxguy · · Score: 3, Interesting

    You're confusing republicans with conservatives, I blame the republicans as much as you do... in 1996 the republican congress passed legislation to allow drilling in ANWR, which I support. Clinton vetoed it. That's fine, but from Jan 2001 to Jan 2007 the republicans had both executive AND legislative and did nothing, and now they're whining that a democrat led congress isn't doing the job they could have done for years.

    It IS a very hypocritical stance, and republicans have squandered 6 years of opportunity for a conservative agenda.

    --
    Stupid sexy Flanders.
  31. Re:Science changed from skepticism to consensus? by LWATCDR · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Okay I live in an area that gets hit by hurricanes. Every year we get the prediction for the year. I would say they hit it about 50% of the time in a broad sense. If you count the times they get it exactly right with the number it is probably less then 10% but I will admit that we don't pay too much attention to that.
    They are really good at path prediction with the storms at about the two day range. Strength predictions are just really bad in general.
    So what I get from this is that accuracy of the models drop drastically over time. Since weather is none linear system I would say that is exactly what I expect.
    So I find the absolute faith in very long term weather models scary.

    --
    See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
  32. Re:Ignoring the real problem by sampson7 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    But all of these comments on the legitimacy of global warming/cooling/climate change all ignore one very simple, inescapable fact: Most "carbon-neutral" energy forms can be generated locally. Windmills use the wind in your area. Solar panels use the sunlight from your roof. This is also true for geothermal, ocean-wave, and bio-fueled energy. All can be generated locally, with local resources.

    Au contraire. You are failing to distinguish between utility-scale and non-utility scale generation. Distributed generation, micro grids, etc. are all fine ideas -- but the renewable component simply does not produce the amount of electricity, on a reliable basis, necessary to meet electric demand.

    In fact, the major problem with renewables (other than their intermittent nature) is that large-scale wind farms and solar generation facilities are located in the middle of nowhere. Getting that power to load (i.e., users of electricity) is hugely exprensive and a real engineering challenge. Don't forget that our electric system in this country is still relatively primative and was designed to by integrated utilities to serve their own load in carefuly defined geographic areas. The system was not designed to transmit power hundreds of miles across the systems of multiple utilities. It's not as simple as just flipping a switch.

    According to the primary wind energy trade association, the top give states in terms of wind capacity are: (1) North Dakota, (2) Texas (predominantly rural west Texas), (3) Kansas, (4) South Dakota, and (5) Montana (followed by such densely populated states as Nebraska, Wyoming, and Oklahoma). Even AWEA states that wind can only be used to provide 20 percent of the electricity we need -- and that ignores the need to have back-up generation on the days the wind does not blow.

    Two major initiatives -- one in Texas and one in California -- give some sense of the location problem. The Texas energy regulators "CREZ" program is planning to spend over $6 billion to build upgrades necessary to build new transmisison lines to get wind to market. This is because the wind in Texas is largely located in the western positions of the state, while demand is predominantly to the east. This $6 billion is money that will eventually be paid by Texas consumers in the form of higher electricity prices.

    The California problem is similar. California is requesting regulatory permission to spend billion in upgrades to the transmission system to interconnect (i.e., hook up a generator to the transmission system) what they call in California, Locationally Constrained Resources. These include most of the major wind and large-scale solar resources in the state. The California Public Utility Commission has a nice summary of the program. In California, the generators pay the initial costs of interconnection; however, these costs are then socialized to all energy users in California over 5 years. Again, the ultimate cost to California consumers is billions of dollars. Look at the large-scale solar projects scheduled to be built by OptiSolar for PG&E -- they are largely in the middle of nowhere.

    Please not that I am NOT arguing that this is a bad investment or that it should not be done. But switching to renewables is going to be a long and economically painful process. People have to understand that no existing renewable resource, or even combination of resources, is reliable enough to supply the enormous amounts of power we consumer every day. Even if we built enough wind and solar *capacity* (i.e., theoretical ability to generate power) to power the entire nation, we would need to maintain as backup enough coal/nuclear/hydropower/natural gas to kic

  33. Major issue with your statement by D.McGuiggin · · Score: 2, Interesting

    "thw worst thing you can do is ramp up production and burn through your last remaining drops"

    This just isn't accurate ,especially in this case. If the oil were irreplacable, you may have an argument, but it isn't.

    As the cost of oil goes up, the financial incentive to use something else increases, while also becoming cost competitive.

    If you ration, you create artificial scarcity, but you also remove a major incentive to find alternatives. In addition, and not accidentally IMNSHO, you condition people to live on an energy diet. I'm sure some of you love that idea, but I consider rationing out of necessity a scientific failure.

       

  34. Re:RTFA by EmagGeek · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Global Warming fanatics think that any variation of temperature other than year after year decreases in temperature is proof that Global Warming is real

  35. Re:Oh goody... by Panaphonix · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The problem with the commonly-held view of AGW is that it relies on a simplistic theory of the Earth's climate:

    Climate = f(CO2 output)

    where f is some monotonic function, always increasing for higher values of CO2 output.

    But what if the equation were actually:

    Climate = g(x)*h(y)*i(z)*f(CO2 output)

    Then how much could you really know, and predict, about the Earth's climate? Forget that you already went to all the trouble to prove that f() is a positive function.

  36. Re:Ignoring the real problem by SETIGuy · · Score: 2, Interesting

    This is also true for geothermal, ocean-wave, and bio-fueled energy. All can be generated locally, with local resources.

    Ain't seen any geysers around here.

    My father heats his house in Northern Wisconsin with geothermal energy. He used to extract the heat from the groundwater, but now he uses a recirculating system because the groundwater system was too susceptible to freezing.

    During the summer he cools his house (on the three days per year it is necessary) by extracting heat from the air and storing it underground.

    And there aren't any geysers in Northern Wisconsin. The groundwater is about 5C.

  37. Why I can't take Global Warming Seriously by stewbacca · · Score: 2, Interesting

    the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, is predicted to hold global temperatures steady for the next decade before global warming takes our planet into new warmth.

    Uhhh, I thought Global Warming was here and now....demonstrably ... But now we have a holding pattern for 10 years before it really kicks in? I'm super-serial, this fear-mongering is getting old.