ESPN and TopCoder Run College Football Algorithm Challenge
Mike writes with a timely link to a story about the ESPN/TopCoder Winning Formula Challenge, a combination of fantasy football and competitive programming. The goal is to write an algorithm to predict the outcome of college football games using a collection of historical data provided by the tournament organizers. The season is broken up into 3-4 week chunks that are used to evaluate the results. Prizes will total $100,000.
I'm assuming the winner will be the algorithm that most closely predicted the correct outcome.
Unfortunately, this wouldn't consider whether or not the algorithm just got lucky. Like you said, considering only historical data isn't nearly enough.
Also, given enough algorithms that essentially pick a random outcome (read: many of these simply luck into good predictions), the actual best algorithm could be totally overlooked.
Well, what can you expect when combining ESPN and coding?
I just pooped your party.
If someone truly came up with an algorithm worth it's salt for predicting football games. Why not just go to Las Vegas and make a lot more than $100,000. :P