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Blu-ray Gone In Five Years, Samsung Claims

Posted by timothy on from the oh-great-now-you-mention-it dept.

schliz writes "Samsung expects Sony's Blu-ray technology to be superseded within five years, despite winning the high-definition format war in February." Maybe that means five years from now will be the perfect time to stock up on cheap Blu-ray disks and equipment.

11 of 554 comments (clear)

  1. ehh.. by nuclear305 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The article starts out saying Blu-Ray will be superseded within 5 years and then goes on to talk about OLED technology with absolutely no mention of what might supersede blu-ray?

    That's what I get for actually RTFA though; a few paragraphs loosely related with no actual technical information.

    1. Re:ehh.. by shawn(at)fsu · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Not saying you're not right or wrong but it's not just size and speed that matter. You also have to look at production of the media itself. If the media is easier cheaper to produce then it gets a big leg up. Right now I'd imagine that DVDs are cheaper to produce than flash drive. I have nothing to back that up with other than cost, I'm not sure what the comparison of Flash to Blu-Ray is.

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    2. Re:ehh.. by morgan_greywolf · · Score: 5, Interesting

      The speed of the development of flash drives will make the optical drives obsolete.

      Provided that, within 5 years, the cost of that flash memory is competitive (or better than competitive) with optical drives.

      Until that happens optical drives will be here to stay.

      And, BTW, DVD was supposed to have superseded CD by now.

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    3. Re:ehh.. by Enderandrew · · Score: 3, Interesting

      BluRay movies push 20+ gigs of storage. The cheapest 16 GB flash drives are like $40-$50 aren't they? And that won't even hold the movie.

      A blank BluRay disc probably costs around $1 I'd guess, and they can go multi-layered.

      It will be years and years before flash storage drives will be cheaper than an optical disc, but the nice thing is that discs scratch were as flash drives hold up quite well (even through washing machines).

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    4. Re:ehh.. by Beardo+the+Bearded · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Hey, I had an N64 up until late last year. It was damned fast. With the introduction of the original Playstation, we had

      Loading remainder of comment, please wait.....

      load times. Yes, we can fit a lot more data onto those 750MB disks than the cartridge tech of the time. Now they're giving away 1GB Flash drives with a box of cereal. You can easily buy 16GB drives now, and that's got 4x the info of a DVD.

      It'll be much easier for "Them" to lock down each game with a globally unique serial number when you're burning Flash drives; much, much harder than when you're pressing CD / DVD runs. Microchip will sell you chips (by the reel, of course) that are pre-programmed and have an incrementing sequence in one section.

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    5. Re:ehh.. by Mad+Merlin · · Score: 3, Interesting

      A year ago, 8G flash drives had just slipped under $100. Today, 32G flash drives have slipped under $100. Needless to say, progress probably won't slow down any time soon, and that starts making flash drives look very attractive...

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    6. Re:ehh.. by Hal_Porter · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Pressed DVDs probably cost pennies to make, BluRay is a bit more expensive but in the long run the disks will be as cheap as DVDs. Flash drives cost about $7 per GB. A DVD movie is currently 5-9 GB. Blu Ray is 25-50GB. I think optical media will be around for a while. Though I'm not sure about BluRay, I suspect that for most people DVDs are good enough.

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    7. Re:ehh.. by melstav · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Single-layer (25GB) Non-rewriteable Blu-Ray discs are $8-$10/each.

      Single-layer (25GB) rewriteable Blu-Ray disks are ~$16-18. (look for BD-RE)

      HOWEVER:
      A Blu-Ray burner will set you back > $200

      16 GB USB flash drives can be had for ~$40


      32 GB USB flash drives are twice the price at ~$80

      So yes, *RIGHT NOW*, if you buy a BD burner and a spindle of 10 BD-RE disks, you'll spend less money than you would if you bought an equivalent amount of USB flash storage.

      This isn't the fairest comparison, because with the flash example I'm providing, the reader is encapsulated with the storage, so you're paying for it every time. (as well as packaging) That being said, almost every computer these days has a USB port, as do many set-top boxes. Not every computer or home has a BD player.

      The price of flash continues to drop. The price of BD media and burners will come down. The question will be, which falls the fastest?

    8. Re:ehh.. by fyoder · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Why shouldn't people do this instead: Blockbusters HQ / iTunes Store / etc -> internet -> Home

      Eventually, perhaps, but sneakernet (or tirenet) may be faster for large file sizes depending on distance and speed of connections. For me it would be faster to nip down to the video rental place with a usb stick for anything over 1 GB.

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  2. An Observation From A Big Music Fan by pandrijeczko · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I don't claim to be a huge film or TV buff, there's a few movies and TV series I enjoy, I own a mid-range widescreen TV but could give two hoots about the occasional bit of blockiness on the screen or surround sound. If people do want top quality movie and TV entertainment, then good luck to them.

    But as a music fan, it's always struck me as really strange how, in the video world, everything is moving to High Definition and Blu-Ray yet in the music world, many people seem to want lower quality compressed music downloads rather than shiny CD disks.

    I've spent as much on a reasonably good hifi as a lot of other people spend on video equipment and I *really really* don't get what is the big deal with compressed music - sure, I use MP3s of my collection on a portable player for travelling and the gym but I don't see how someone who buys compressed music can be classified as a music fan when a "movie buff" is never going to be taken seriously unless he/she has got a huge TV, cable, surround sound, etc.

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  3. Re:Superceded by what? by sm62704 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Ok, everybody just stop buying now; wait for five years to see the new technology and then pay a premium to be the first.

    I just bought an analog, 42 inch flat screen CRT less than five years ago. I have no reason whatever to buy Blu-Ray, as with my analog TV Blu-Ray won't look any different but the disks and players are damned expensive (I need a new DVD player, mine's worn out. $30 at Wal Mart, how much is Blu-Ray again?). I don't see buying a new TV any time soon, so I guess I'm lucky, I'll transition from DVD to whatever superceds blu-ray.

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