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Bad Signs For Blu-ray
Ian Lamont writes "More than six months after HD-DVD gave up the ghost, there are several signs that Sony's rival Blu-ray format is struggling to gain consumer acceptance. According to recent sales data from Nielsen, market share for Blu-ray discs in the U.S. is declining, and Sony and its Blu-ray partners are trying several tactics to boost the format — including free trial discs bundled into magazines and cheap Blu-ray players that cost less than $200."
Frivolous new overpriced tech does poorly in tough times. Who'da thunk it?
Caveat Utilitor
Can anyone say DRM?
Yeah, but the masses can't tell you what it stands for.
"I like to lick butts!" by MobileTatsu-NJG (#32700246) (Score:5, Informative)
I'm not about to rebuy my DVD collection or upgrade my TV to enable your HDCP-enabled dreams of complete consumer control.
Also, I could care less about your game console, so you won't be able to use me as a marketing statistic showing the success of Blu-Ray there either.
I'd much rather see a good story with crappy special effects than a crappy story with good special effects.
HD-DVD lost, clearly, but that doesn't mean Blu-Ray won. DVD is winning; and if it can hold onto a lead for several more years, long enough for a substantially better technology to go along, Blu-Ray will fade away just like LaserDisk.
Blu-Ray is better than DVD, but I don't know if it is enough better to survive and conquer.
In the latest issue of Wired, I got one of those "Trial" Blu-Ray discs. I would have loved to check out the movie and disc, except: a.) I don't own a Blu-Ray player. b.) I don't know anyone who owns a Blu-Ray Player. c.) I don't have interest in said movie. I mean, why the -hell- would I spend $200 on something I got in a magazine that I pay $15 for? If I do own the Blu-Ray player to play it, then why good does it do to tell me all the benefits of Blu-Ray when I'm already sold on it?
cheap Blu-ray players that cost less than $200
Keep going. I can still get a no-name DVD player for $30, region free as well.
I won't install or use a BD system.
on principle.
sony: you lost a LOT of money on people like me who BOYCOTT you for all your various evil ways.
note to industry: upscaled dvd's are JUST FINE on any modern day video player or streamer (I use a 'popcorn hour' box which upscales just fine and is fanless and instant-on).
BD can die for all I care. I'll never fund your poor products with my money.
--
"It is now safe to switch off your computer."
I've been kind of wanting to get a Blu-Ray machine. But I've been waiting for a title that I can get excited about.
Can anyone recommend a movie - that when you watch it on blu-ray you say "awesome ... that was worth it!"
When I look at the BluRay section - I see movies like "SuperBad" and the latest chick flicks
Who the fuck cares about these on BLURAY - @$30 a pop no less
I figure if the re-master Pink Floyd's Delicate Sound of Thunder from the original AGFA film masters, I will be all over that format. ... but until then .... *yawn*
---- "Logoff! That cookie shit makes me nervous!" - A. Soprano
Its far more likely to be a more simpler reason, like the recession.
...or that Blu-ray offers nothing better for the average consumer than SACD does for sound. It's great for videophiles and those with really expensive setups, but at the end of the day it's the same movie at a higher cost.
Yes, but they don't do they. You're seriously overestimating the average consumer. "Disk go in here? Disk play." That's the mentality. I hang out on a lot of forums that deal with Blu-Ray and I've not seen a single complaint about DRM, because the disks just play, just like DVD (ARCOS protected titles not withstanding.) DRM is irrelevant to 99.999% of Blu-Ray owners because it doesn't effect them.
I think it's more a case of lack of reason to upgrade. When DVD came out I was really excited as it was a huge quality leap, plus you got documentaries, commentary etc... It was a MASSIVE leap, especially if you're a movie geek. DVD to Blu-Ray is a picture and audio upgrade which you can't really notice without a 40"+ TV and a 5.1 surround system. The regular consumer, the idiot who buys "Fullscreen" over widescreen gets very little benefit from Blu-Ray over DVD. All the consumer sees is the movies are more expensive and in pretty blue boxes. I see DVD's flying off the shelves in stores, but I don't think I've yet seen anyone buying a Blu-Ray release. (PS3 titles not withstanding.) This is just from the many hours I spend feeding my DVD habit and browsing.
Blu-Ray will most likely be these decades Laserdisc. A niche market for home theatre geeks.
It's the cost of the content. Content is king and always will be. Consumers will pay more for a disc player which offers more features and functionality. They won't pay $30 per blueray disc when they are used to paying $14-20 for decent quality movie on DVD. Add DRM to that and ya it's doomed to a early demise and they were fools for thinking they could succeed so.
"GET / HTTP/1.0" 200 51230 "-" "Mozilla/4.0 (compatible; Setec Astronomy)"
Nonsense. Most consumers don't even know what DRM is, or if they do they don't care all that much. They already can't copy their DVDs (without some special software), and I don't see that harming the market acceptance of DVD players or DVD movies. Most consumers probably have no idea what DRM Blu-Ray uses.
Blu-Ray's problem is that it's a solution in search of a problem. VHS looked lousy (and progressively lossy) and was clunky to use; the DVD solved those problems by being a higher quality digital disk, so it was successful in the market. So... what's the consumer problem with DVDs that Blu-Ray is supposed to solve? "The resolution could be higher," just isn't that compelling a reason to upgrade.
http://alternatives.rzero.com/
Simply put, DVD CSS did not restrict the methods of use for your average person. If they had a store-bought DVD player and put a store bought DVD in it, IT PLAYED. End of line.
Put a store-bought BD in your store bought BD player and it bitches about your digital-but-not-HDCP-enough TV and refuses to play. It sees your SPDIF connection to your stereo and pitches a fit. It sees you doing ANYTHING but the Sony-approved Viewing Ritual and it just stops cold. It notices that the disc is using a newer encryption than the player and it tosses a shitfit, demanding that you get on the intertubes and burn a CDR with newer firmware. Average Joe shits a brick and returns his hardware when his MOVIE PLAYER THING tells him to get on the Intertubes. It's not flying.
End users notice that shit, and they're saying no.
The preceding comment is my own, and in no way construes an opinon of the Emperor of Mankind.
I said All the consumer sees is the movies are more expensive and in pretty blue boxes.
So that's what I just said. Now can you say "Polly want a cracker"?
They don't just work, though. The people who hang out on the forums aren't the ones who were bitten by HDCP. And you get people asking salespeople about this new fancy high-def disc and get asked if the HDTV they bought 3 years ago has HDCP, they don't know if it does or not, so that scares them off. And many people have HDTV's that don't have HDCP, so there goes a number of people who would buy one, but it just doesn't work. My brother is an example of that... bought a 720p TV a while back, and it only has component inputs. It may technically work, but that's only until ICT gets used more commonly, which the the manufacturers haven't used so far. But that's like trusting Apple to not delete your apps off the store.
My blog. Good stuff (when I remember to update it). Read it.
Finally the typical movie buyer speaks up.
It has been statistically shown that helmets increase the risk of head injury.
Oh, so you spend CONSIDERABLY more money on videos than the average consumer. Good to know that the top 1% feels differently than the other 99%.
It could have to do with new DVD's being $10-$15, where new Blu-Ray discs are $23.99(amazon)-$39.99 (Bestbuy)
Not only are they twice as expensive, but I've stopped buying blu-ray movies because more often than not the quality is almost exactly the same as the DVD version! I just watched The Usual Suspects on blu-ray, and while it might be slightly better, it's definitely not a significant improvement over the standard DVD.
http://www.policystew.com/
BluRay is having a tough enough time without slashdot airing repeated hit pieces.
Wait, I thought you said BluRay was doing great?
DRM is irrelevant to 99.999% of Blu-Ray owners because it doesn't effect them.
Affect; not effect.
Man, I've seen this so many times recently it's starting to seem rediculous!!
Indeed, Pounds are the problem---the players start at something like 190 Pounds... and the discs at 15 or so.... :-)
Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.
Actually, I think the parent has hit the nail on the head. As an early adopter (PS3 from day one), I've bought a lot of Blue ray disks, but far less than I would have if they didn't ask for $30 each.
I'd be happy to eventually replace my entire DVD collection at $10...$15; but not at thirty. As it is, we only purchase the movies that we like the very best; if it is so-so or just a popcorn flick (light humor, yet-another-sequel, etc.) we don't get it on Blue ray, even if we don't already have it -- we'll just get a DVD.
I really love the hi-res, too (and can see it, too: 204" screen); but ten disks x $30 is $300, and a hundred is three grand; I have *many* hundreds of DVDs, and there's no way I'm going to replace them just as a matter of course.
As more good movies come out, or let's at least say movies that appeal to my family, we'll slowly build up a considerable collection in the hidef format. But a mass replacement... no. Not until they stop charging so much.
I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
Well,I can say I have had a couple of folks come into my shop wanting to pick my brain while I fixed their machine,and when I told them they couldn't back up their BD discs like they can their DVDs that was the end of that. Sony needs to realize that folks have kids,and no matter how careful you are kids can tear up a Sherman tank with a toothbrush without even meaning to. It would be one thing if they had made them cartridge style where it is much harder to scratch the thing,but they didn't. And even the most clueless home user has found out from their cousin/brother/uncle how to back up their DVDs so the kids don't accidentally trash them.
And add to that the fact that the economy is likely IMHO to end up in another depression,and the fact that for most of the viewing public a DVD looks fine,plus the cheap price of DVDs and players,and you end up with Blu-Ray slowing sinking. If it wasn't for the PS3 IMHO it would already be toast,but a gaming console isn't going to get the vast majority to switch. So sorry,Sony,but like memory sticks and Minidiscs I'm smelling the whiff of failure. I'm betting the next format will be built for storage first,and movies will come along later. Maybe holodiscs? But as always this is my 02c,YMMV
ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
So we need them to figure out that "Disk go in here, disk maybe play, maybe not. If not, me spend more money and disk maybe play, maybe not. If still not, me lose money and get frustrated and go to thepiratebay.org and now it play. Me write letter to company, tell them they steal from me, I steal from them, we even now."
APK quotes people (including myself) without context and should not be trusted. Just thought you should know.
That's exactly what it is. I bought a nice new 46" 1080p LCD TV and I couldn't bear to watch any SD content on it because it looked so terrible. I caved and bought a PS3 just to see what a true 1080p picture looked like and it's definitely a huge leap in clarity. Upscaled DVDs are only barely tolerable, I've really been hooked on blu-ray quality. However, I only own 2 blu-ray movies and do not intend to buy another one unless it's something really special or the price is down to 10 bucks.
I now get my movie fix through netflix which ends up costing me 3 bucks for a movie I'd probably only watch once anyway and if I want to see again can just add to my queue. Why pay 25-30 bucks to own it?
The movie industry really struggles with this whole supply and demand concept. There's an abundance of films available on blu-ray but a tiny demand for them. The laws of economics would have you expect the price to come down, but not in the world of the MPAA.
Consumers are for the most part too ignorant to care about dvd based DRM.
Maybe so, but there are at least two movies that I will, as a direct result of DRM, never ever buy or rent: Madagascar and Over The Hedge.
Why? No jokes about their quality, please.
Because another Dreamworks title, Shrek 2, showed trailers for them on the DVD release I bought, and prohibited me from skipping past them.
When I'm in a theatre I expect to have to watch trailers, and often find them entertaining, but not every. single. time I put a disc into my own player at home.
And most other people I know find such things annoying too. Try asking people in the street "what do you think of those copyright messages on DVDs that you can't skip past?". You'll soon see what consumers think of DRM, even if they don't know to call it that. Curiously enough Disney for all their Mickey Mouse Copyright Extension evilness, seems to be the best behaved - their titles rarely if ever forbid you from skipping anything.
UOPs must die.
"Nine times out of ten, starting a fire is not the best way to solve the problem." - my wife
Why pay 25-30 bucks to own it?
License.
If you're a zombie and you know it, bite your friend!
Blu-Ray really seems like a technology invented for profit rather than for utility. when CD-ROMs and DVDs came out, they not only offered a significant technological advancement, but they also met a real need for better storage media. CD-ROM was really a technology created for public benefit.
however, with BD technology, it seems like it was something thought up at a board meeting that Sony had their R&D department develop just so that they could force a superfluous technology onto consumers. it's created and custom tailored for sellers rather than buyers.
i mean, if you look at the features of BDs, they all seem to primarily benefit the film industry and BD producers at the cost of consumer interests. so why would consumers want to pay extra for what is basically a downgrade?
Nah. Even most people with high definition TVs don't see much real benefit from Blu-ray over properly upscaled DVD playback, either. At 720x480, DVD widescreen content is, frankly, plenty good enough to look reasonably crisp on all but the largest TVs. For that matter, even on the largest sets, it isn't objectionably fuzzy once you actually start watching it instead of staring at the screen up close.... Don't get me wrong, adoption will continue to grow, but now that the early adopters have pretty much finished adopting, there's not a lot of new market for this stuff as long as the media and the players are both so much more expensive than the comparable DVDs that are "good enough" for most purposes.
You see, people aren't really buying a DVD. They're buying a copy of a movie. That has a value that isn't really tied to the picture quality of the medium. People tend to be willing to spend a particular amount of money that tends to decrease rapidly as the age of the movie increases. Buying a $30 Blu-ray of a movie that you can buy in the $4.99 bargain bin at Wal-Mart is just plain not going to happen no matter how much better the picture quality is. Even buying a $30 Blu-ray of a movie that would cost $15 on DVD is pretty much a non-starter for most people. Their immediate judgment is "I have $60 to spend on entertainment this month. I can buy four new release DVDs or 8-12 older DVDs with that money (or some combination thereof). I could buy two Blu-ray discs." In the absence of their entertainment budget suddenly tripling, they will either buy fewer movies or will continue buying DVDs. Either way, the high cost of the discs is quite clearly limiting the uptake.
It's all about the Benjamins, so I'm pretty certain that Blu-ray purchases won't overtake DVDs until the price of the media drops to the price people are currently paying for DVDs (or less) or until the industry risks corporate suicide by stopping production of new DVDs to force adoption. Blu-ray purchases right now are basically equivalent to buying premium gasoline if your car doesn't knock with regular.... Sure, you'll convince a few people, but most people look at the benefit and the extra cost and conclude that the cost outweighs the benefit. Only when either A. the price is basically the same as DVDs or B. there's some other huge benefit that goes way beyond a slightly higher resolution will the majority of consumers care about Blu-ray or any other similar format.
There's also the penetration issue. I have a Blu-ray player hooked up to an HD set. I own one Blu-ray disc because I wanted to make sure the player could actually play them. Otherwise, I bought it to replace a DVD player that was flaking out, and I'm still buying DVDs. They play in every room of my house, while these only play in one room. So there's the compatibility issue and the need for 100% penetration in a household before people can start buying the discs in large quantities.... They don't replace all their DVD players with Blu-ray players quickly because the Blu-ray players are still relatively expensive. So there's cost factoring into adoption again.
In short, price and price are the two biggest factors in Blu-ray's current stagnation---price of players and price of media. Fix one or the other or both, and uptake will continue to increase steadily. Keep prices as they are, and uptake will slow and eventually stagnate. It is basic early adopter economics....
Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.
You see,there is this little program called DVD Fab,maybe you have heard of it? And I don't how it is where you are at,but around here(small town AR) there is nearly always some friend/family member that "knows stuff about computers". Deity forbid they should ever get ahold of your computer after an error,because they will f*ck it up a hundred times worse(more work for me),but when it comes to basic stuff like installing a card or ripping a disc they can do it. And DVD Fab is so simple a kid could do it.
So I am sorry if it bugs you,but anybody who has read my previous posts for any length of time knows I'm just a small town PC repairman who tells what I see coming into my shop. From my observations I can tell you that my customers hate Vista and when they kill it you are looking at a format/reinstall,The Geforce 6xxx and 7xxx series is still popular around here with ATI almost nonexistent,and just about everyone under 40ish has some sort of DVD ripping software. Oh,and DVD burners are REAL hot sellers right now,thanks to the low price of blanks. I am currently waiting on some Lite-On burners to come in right now. Like I said,that is just what I am seeing in my little shop.
Maybe we got more tech minded folks,or just a lot of guys that know just enough to be dangerous? Hell if I know. All I can say is more and more I'm seeing DVD Fab on the desktop,with about a 50/50 split between the free and pay versions. As far as the economy goes,trying to buy our way out by printing more money while we are bleeding money from two wars smells like a recipe for disaster to me. And as always this is my 02c from out here in BFA,YMMV
ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
No, that was "talk like a pirate day". "Talk like a parrot day" is this week. Next week it'll be "talk like Poirot day". Mon dieu!
"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something" - Plato