SpaceX's Fourth Launch Attempt RSN

jcgam69 writes "SpaceX's Falcon 1 is on the pad in the South Pacific Kwajalein Atoll ready for its fourth launch attempt, according to a blog post over the weekend from SpaceX CEO Elon Musk. The countdown is scheduled for Tuesday, Sept. 23, between 4 p.m. and 9 p.m. PDT, though the launch window will extend through Thursday if need be."

Comments

Not Today...

[crymeph0]

From an email I received this morning from the SpaceX news mailing list:

The static fire took place on Saturday [20 Sep 2008, CA time], as expected, and no major issues came up. However, after a detailed analysis of data, we decided to replace a component in the 2nd stage engine LOX supply line. There is a good chance we would be ok flying as is, but we are being extremely cautious.

This adds a few extra days to the schedule, so the updated launch window estimate is now Sept 28th through Oct 1st [CA time].

Re:Not Today...

[CraftyJack]

On the one hand, their whole approach to this endeavor screams failure. They have insisted on relearning the lessons of the past 60 years the hard way. Predictably, they've paid for it. I simply don't think a private corporation can afford the learning curve.
However, I truly hope they pull it off. I fear that failure by SpaceX would dry up entrepreneurial space efforts in a big way.

Re:Not Today...

[lysergic.acid]

well, first off, all of NASA's research and technology should be freely available in the public domain. that would make it much easier for commercial space travel to take off. i mean, why are we funding public research if it's not going to be public?

i wonder if the patents NASA is auctioning, or has auctioned, off would make SpaceX's task easier. i mean, i don't care if private corporations start taking over space exploration or if space travel is commercialized. it doesn't even matter if private corporations profit from tax-funded research--so long as _everyone_ has access to that research and is allowed to do the same.

but now it's like if we'd taken all the money used to fund NASA over the past few decades and instead just given it to a handful of private corporations. they alone get to profit from research paid for by the American public and then charge everyone else for access to the technology that our tax dollars already paid for. it's almost like the situation with the telecoms where the infrastructure we paid for is being privately controlled and we're charged extortionate rates to use.

Re:Not Today...

[georgewilliamherbert]

They've tripped over some previously known issues before, yes. However, it's not like large aerospace companies and NASA don't do the same thing all the time as well. And the total money input into SpaceX for the Falcon 1, (cancelled 5), and 9 vehicles so far is less than it would take to finish the paper studies part of any traditional aerospace companies' new launch vehicle.

Imperfect, yes, but no worse than many others, and much much cheaper.

Re:Not Today...

[FleaPlus]

They have insisted on relearning the lessons of the past 60 years the hard way.

Actually, it's more that they're starting from scratch, taking advantage of the lessons learned from the past 60 years. When mistakes have occurred, they've fixed the bug and tried again. Nothing that I've seen suggests any problems inherent to what they're doing.

I simply don't think a private corporation can afford the learning curve.

What is your reason for this belief?

Re:Not Today...

[Richard_at_work]

The problem is, affordable documentation can never make up for experience. In order for there to be useful transfer between NASA and the general public, there would need to be a boat load of extra documentation written by the entities doing the development. We aren't just talking technical documentation here, or blueprints etc, we are talking proper development documentation - eg 'we tried this but disregarded it because of this, we also tried this and it didn't work because of this'. That would raise the developmental cost significantly, and no one is willing to pay for that.

This is why I often roll my eyes whenever someone says 'but they are making all the same mistakes NASA made - NASA has done this before, why aren't they benefiting from their experience?' Experience walks out the door when someone retires, and most of the people on the Apollo program are dead, let alone retired. There's no way you can get that experience back, documenting it isn't cost effective at the time (regardless of how cost effective it may be in 50 years).

Re:Not Today...

[PeeAitchPee]

well, first off, all of NASA's research and technology should be freely available in the public domain.

Uh, NO. I don't want space technology developed with my tax dollars made freely available to the governments of Iran or North Korea (unfriendly governments who are trying to develop / have developed nukes), let alone Cuba or Venezuela for that matter. It's one thing to share it with US companies / individuals who are specifically trying to compete in the private space industry in this country, but this country has enough problems right now without giving away tech to our enemies.

Re:Not Today...

[GooberToo]

To be fair, this is not their failing. That type of experience simply doesn't exist much any more. This is a fact which has constantly repeated it self over time.

Lacking experience is the constant component which simply disappears. This can be observed in many technical areas.

o Military contractors are constantly relearning lessons well known since WWII and Korea.

o It now takes 20%-40% longer to build aircraft which have changed little since the 60s. This is believed to be directly attributable to both the change in accepted work practises but also the lacking expertise which was commonly available from WWII, Korea, and Vietnam era workers.

o Contrary to popular myth, rocket scientists with actual developmental experience are exceedingly rare. For the most part, all of these guys have retired. Ignoring the current rocket engineering resurgence, for the most part, there hasn't been any new rocket engine engineering taking place since the space shuttle. Don't forget, most of that took place in the 60s. With some simple math, it's easy to figure out most of these guys have moved on, retired, or dead.

To make matters worse, Corporate America no longer values experience. This fact is underlined, bolded, and well documented. The outsourcing of America is in it self validation of this fact. Ignoring outsourcing, and it's still well documented. These days experience is equated to mean, expensive and having no value.

Re:Not Today...

[Geoffrey.landis]

They have insisted on relearning the lessons of the past 60 years the hard way.

Actually, it's more that they're starting from scratch, taking advantage of the lessons learned from the past 60 years. When mistakes have occurred, they've fixed the bug and tried again. Nothing that I've seen suggests any problems inherent to what they're doing.

To be fair, learning by doing really is the best way to learn, and as long as they are learning from each of their failures, they're doing good. If they can survive the bad PR, they're gaining experience that should, in the long run, be very very valuable.

If you're not free to fail, you're not free to learn. It's the learning the lessons and keeping on after failure that's hard, but they seem to be able to do that, so I'd say, good job; keep it up.

Re:Not Today...

[sexconker]

Durrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Castle in a Swamp!

[onkelonkel]

Listen, lad. I built this kingdom up from nothing. When I started here, all there was was swamp. Other kings said I was daft to build a castle on a swamp, but I built it all the same, just to show 'em. It sank into the swamp. So, I built a second one. That sank into the swamp. So, I built a third one. That burned down, fell over, then sank into the swamp, but the fourth one... stayed up! And that's what you're gonna get, lad: the strongest castle in these islands.

Re:Castle in a Swamp!

[jollyreaper]

Listen, lad. I built this kingdom up from nothing. When I started here, all there was was swamp. Other kings said I was daft to build a castle on a swamp, but I built it all the same, just to show 'em. It sank into the swamp. So, I built a second one. That sank into the swamp. So, I built a third one. That burned down, fell over, then sank into the swamp, but the fourth one... stayed up! And that's what you're gonna get, lad: the strongest castle in these islands.

Good reference there. I was thinking more along the lines of an ancient rap....

We like the rockets, the rockets that go boom! We're Tina and Buffy and we like tha boom.

Re:Castle in a Swamp!

[Anonymous Coward]

It's "Tigre and Bunny". Now excuse me, I must go hang my head in shame for knowing that.

Learning from your mistakes

[crowtc]

I'm all for learning from my mistakes, but how much do these things cost to build and launch? You have to admire the dedication though - sinking that kind of money from your own pocket into something like this takes some guts. If he pulls it off, he might have something.

Re:Learning from your mistakes

[doug]

Aren't they underwritten by the US Gov't? I seem to remember that NASA or DOD was shoveling them money. Considering the number of failures, I just hope that it isn't a cost-plus scheme like so many federal projects. I'm not saying that no private money is going into this, just that the sting of failure is lessened by public largess.

Re:Learning from your mistakes

[crowtc]

I did some research and I guess these things cost like 10M each. Musk supposedly dumped 100M of his own money into the company, but they've apparently got contracts with NASA and the DOD to toss stuff into space. I'm guessing they're not exactly strapped for cash - this may be a throw-away rocket to them.

Re:Learning from your mistakes

[Areyoukiddingme]

They sell launches for $7.9 million each, or $9.1 million for the extended version. I'm sure they cost less than that to build. Price quoted down at the bottom of this page: http://www.spacex.com/falcon1.php

Prices include insurance and launch range fees, so no hidden costs.

They're not precisely throwaway, either, since the stages are designed to be recovered, refurbished, and relaunched.

Re:Learning from your mistakes

[Hatta]

sinking that kind of money from your own pocket into something like this takes some guts.

If you have that kind of money to throw around, what else are you going to do with it? Losing 100 million isn't going to affect his standard of living at all, so essentially there is no risk on his part. Money is like RAM, if it's not used, it's wasted.

Re:Learning from your mistakes

[Anonymous Coward]

Yes, SpaceX is receiving funding under the NASA COTS program.

Re:Learning from your mistakes

[Martin Blank]

They're not precisely throwaway, either, since the stages are designed to be recovered, refurbished, and relaunched.

Does the price include the cost of the Super Glue needed after the last three attempts? :)

(It's a joke. Really it is. I want these guys to succeed, and I've watched two of the three launch attempts.)

Re:Learning from your mistakes

[Areyoukiddingme]

I think it must. They used to quote $6.1 million per launch. :)

Re:Learning from your mistakes

[FleaPlus]

I'm all for learning from my mistakes, but how much do these things cost to build and launch

SpaceX charges $6.7 million for them. They apparently make a profit at that price, so the actual costs are presumably somewhat less than that.

It should be noted though that in general the per-launch costs (fuel, materials, etc.) tend to be quite low compared to the costs of paying the salaries of people in the company. One of the reasons SpaceX's prices are so low compared to the competition is because they designed from the get-go to minimize the number of people required to build and launch their rockets.

Re:Learning from your mistakes

[zmollusc]

I think the number of people required to build and launch rockets(or indeed perform any function) is always affordable, it is the layers of management ( with its associated support staff, offices, expense accounts, travel etc ) that cost money.

it is delayed a week

[Danny Rathjens]

The static fire took place on Saturday [20 Sep 2008, CA time], as expected, and no major issues came up. However, after a detailed analysis of data, we decided to replace a component in the 2nd stage engine LOX supply line. There is a good chance we would be ok flying as is, but we are being extremely cautious. This adds a few extra days to the schedule, so the updated launch window estimate is now Sept 28th through Oct 1st

http://www.spacex.com/updates.php

Re:it is delayed a week

[Kamokazi]

week=7
28-23=5
5=7
???

Re:it is delayed a week

[Danny Rathjens]

launch window=oct 1 - sep 28= 4 days
oct 1 - sep 23 = 9 days
28 - 23 = 5 days
(9+5)/2 = 7 days. :)

Just messing around, though. Obviously if I meant exactly 7 days I would have said 7 days rather than a week. There is an implied margin of error when you use larger units. :)

Re:it is delayed a week

[dullnev]

week=7
28-23=5
5=7
???

week=7
28-23=5
5=7
Profit!!!

(fixed it for ya)

Trebuchet

[Hognoxious]

They should use a trebuchet. Can't be any worse than what they've tried already,

Re:Trebuchet

[statemachine]

...using Earth as the counterweight. Brilliant!

Re:Trebuchet

[michaelmuffin]

...using Earth as the counterweight. Brilliant!

that's not a bad idea. but what would be the fulcrum?

Re:Trebuchet

[Anonymous Coward]

Turtles.

Re:Trebuchet

[byornski]

Archimedes?

Re:Trebuchet

[michaelmuffin]

heracleides?

Re:Trebuchet

[Anonymous Coward]

Did we find a place for him to stand?

Re:Trebuchet

[eagl]

Yea... It's turtles ALL THE WAY DOWN. Didn't anybody tell you?

Those trees look mighty close...

[Anonymous Coward]

So do all those very combustible looking trees fold over at launch like those ones in Thunderbirds?

Let me know when they get one up

[MythoBeast]

Seriously, while I appreciate their tenacity, these attempts weren't news the last time either. Please skip the "here they go again" post and just let us know how it went, ok?

Re:Let me know when they get one up

[Free the Cowards]

I couldn't disagree more. I'm interested enough that I might watch it live, but would never hear about it anywhere else. Please post to Slashdot a few hours before they launch!

Re:Let me know when they get one up

[michaelmuffin]

Seriously, while I appreciate their tenacity, these attempts weren't news the last time either. Please skip the "here they go again" post and just let us know how it went, ok?

in other news, ailing former dictator fidel castro is still alive

Saturday, with luck

[Geoffrey.landis]

Space.com says launch on Saturday at the earliest ( Sept. 28 )

Good luck to them! Space-X has already won the stick-to-it award for persistence-- now let's hope they win the "great-success-after-hard-work" award.

this launches motto

[Coraon]

"What goes up, better doggone stay up!"

Somewhat

[WindBourne]

They did pay for the first 2. The last one and this one are on Spacex's dime. As to the # of failures, EVERY group that has started with rockets has a number of failures up front. Once they have their first couple of successes, then it tends to be with new versions (though the shuttle says otherwise).

Add an accelermeter to the stage seperation logic.

[LWATCDR]

Just a suggestion.
"As it turned out, a very small increase in the time between commanding main engine shutdown and stage separation would have been enough to save the mission."

If the residual thrust was the problem I would think that an accelerometer would act as a good safeguard. Heck I would thing that the INS could provide this input.

We Look For People To Make It Go

[DynaSoar]

Not relevant to TFA, but to the /. crowd:

Unix/Linux admin and software engineer positions open at the L.A. facility. https://spacex.com/careers.php

The subject line is a ripoff of a ST:TNG episode. I'm not with SpaceX. I'm still trying.

Re:We Look For People To Make It Go

[LanMan04]

"Looks like their rubber band broke"

package delivery

[floatingrunner]

so like, do you think crowbars are effective in space? where do i send it?

They should talk to Cid ...

[winomonkey]

They could use a few cues from Cid circa FFVII and avoid potential catastrophe by rechecking the oxygen tanks BEFORE initiating the launch sequence, lest they have another rocket sitting in the middle of nowhere due to a lack of funding.

RSN?

[Anonymous Coward]

What does that mean? It's not defined in the summary or the article and google returns crap for "define:rsn" and "spacex rsn".

If it's "Real Soon Now" as acronymfinder suggests, then the summary writer and editor both suck.

Re:RSN?

[Chris Burke]

If it's "Real Soon Now" as acronymfinder suggests, then the summary writer and editor both suck.

Naw, it actually stands for "Retarded Spinning Narwhal", a complicated and beautiful acrobatic maneuver that some rocket ships can perform just as they leave the atmosphere. "Narwhal" as a comparison to the long and pointy nature of the ship and a reference to the animal's aquatic dexterity, "Spinning" which describes what the move consists of, and "Retarded" for both the crazy-looking pattern of multi-axis rotation and a jibe at the people who'd risk their lives and a multi-million space craft doing such a dangerous trick just to show off.

I have to say I'm pretty surprised that SpaceX would attempt a RSN on what they hope to be their first successful launch. Most firms and more so pilots would like to make sure the ship will make it to space and back safely a few times before trying it. On the other hand, a well-executed RSN is one hell of a way to announce their success, a giant space-born banner reading "We're here, we're in space, get used to it!"

The more you know!

Re:RSN?

[fdrebin]

What does that mean?

It means "soon" but in a nonspecific way. As in "we're working on it, honest". Or "Johnny, take out the trash! ...OK, mom, Real Soon Now".
Could also be used sarcastically.
A little like Duke Nukem Forever, but not nearly so much so.

To my knowledge, initially coined and/or made popular by Jerry Pournelle back in the days of Byte magazine. He'd use the term in reference to someone saying they were working on fixing or releasing something.

/F

South Pacific???

[MountainLogic]

Minor point, but at approximately 8 deg 43 min N, 167 deg 44 min E would Kwajalein not be in the Northern Pacific or at least Central Pacific?

(GMT -12:00) Eniwetok, Kwajalein

[Dachannien]

So they're the ones who've been creating all those forum spam accounts!

Re:Add an accelermeter to the stage seperation log

[Nit Picker]

Is the use of an accelerometer to control second stage separation the norm? (I am neither a rocket scientist nor a rocket engineer, but I would like to know.)

Also, are ullage motors normally used for stage separation engine starts, or are they reserved for engines starts after a longer weightless perion?

CEO

[Anonymous Coward]

I've got grave doubts about any company whose CEO has a name that sounds more like a perfume brand.

Re:CEO

[Anonymous Coward]

...and I think it's hilarious that anyone would trust the guy who brought us PayPal to try and launch a rocket. The laws of physics aren't interested in beta versions.

Good luck!

[Anonymous Coward]

Would really like to see this attempt succeed. Many of the Google Lunar X PRIZE teams are relying on it, and this would be an excellent first step in that direction.

http://www.googlelunarxprize.org/lunar/about-the-prize/preferred-partners

Re:Add an accelermeter to the stage seperation log

[bucky0]

I would think accelerometers aren't used. Another point of failure and all.

Re:Add an accelermeter to the stage seperation log

[Profane MuthaFucka]

Ullage is used for stage separation too. The Saturn V had big'uns. The motors didn't separate the stages, they provided a little acceleration to settle the fuel at the back (bottom) of the tank before the stage ignition.

You see them on each stage here.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b2/Saturn_v_schematic.jpg

Re:Add an accelermeter to the stage seperation log

[Nit Picker]

Ullage is used for stage separation too. The Saturn V had big'uns. The motors didn't separate the stages, they provided a little acceleration to settle the fuel at the back (bottom) of the tank before the stage ignition.

You see them on each stage here.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b2/Saturn_v_schematic.jpg

So is the lack of an ullage motor on the Falcon 1 second stage likely to cause problems?

Re:Add an accelermeter to the stage seperation log

[Profane MuthaFucka]

The second stage fires relatively soon after the first stage is done burning, so there's little time for propellants to move forward in the tanks. The Saturn had a relatively longer gap between first and second stage burnouts so ullage motors were included. The later Saturns actually removed the ullage motors from the second stage, since that one lit off just under 5 seconds after the first stage burned out.

Maybe you were thinking

[ciroknight]

Atlas, the Titan who held the weight of the world on his shoulders.

"Elon Musk?"

[aquatone282]

What is this, an Issac Asimov novel?

Let's play Global Thermonuclear War

[celtic_hackr]

Yes, let's make all that advanced rocket design public information so anyone can build intercontinental ballistic missiles!

BRILLIANT!

Hey, Bin Laden come on out we've got free rocket designs! Still got any of those oil millions left to build one?

Hey Pyongyang, want to make better rockets? Here you go!

Re:Let's play Global Thermonuclear War

[celtic_hackr]

I would like to add, I think it's equally stupid for NASA to not help commercial ventures like this get a leg up on research, and also to rent all this research to the highest bidder.

Re:Let's play Global Thermonuclear War

[lysergic.acid]

so if we hide this info then no one can build ICBMs without our consent? that's a rather ignorant way of trying to promote national security.

i mean, where do you stop? should we keep nuclear physics from being taught/researched because it can be applied to nuclear weapons? or put a ban on the export of biology/chemistry research because they could aid in the development of bio/chemical weapons?

Re:Let's play Global Thermonuclear War

[Morty]

NASA's research is available to the public, both in scientific publications and via NASA FOIA. NASA is helping SpaceX specifically -- NASA granted them an IDIQ contract worth up to US$1 billion. What more did you have in mind?

[Disclosure: I do IT at NASA as a contractor. However, the above is based on publicly available information. I speak for myself, not for NASA.]

Re:Let's play Global Thermonuclear War

[celtic_hackr]

Well if all of NASA's research is freely available, then what is it they are proposing to auction off?

I'm fully aware NASA is helping and encouraging private space flight firms, although I couldn't name any specifics so left it off my comment. But not everything NASA does is freely available. Some of the work they do is classified for national security reasons, and FOIA won't get you those papers. For good reason, although there is an awful lot of dangerous information out there that is easy to get.

Perhaps you should have responded to the parent of my original post.

Re:Let's play Global Thermonuclear War

[celtic_hackr]

You'd have a hard time building nuclear weapons just from learning the physics of them. I know this because I am a physicist by training with engineering study also, and a life long hacking history. If you're going to outlaw a field it would be engineering you'd want to outlaw.

However, making easily available the technological knowledge to build ICBMs is like posting a list of user ids and passwords in a public place. While security through obscurity is not solution to security, public advertisement is surely even worse. What good would it do to make the specifications necessary to build ICBMs be to you or any average person? What could you possibly do with that information? It is knowledge that is suited only for engineering students, companies trying to build spacecraft or compete for government contracts, or organizations with large sums of money that could actually build such things (like the North Korean government, and some terrorist groups).

I don't try to promote national security. I think we have enough idiots trying to do that, but I also don't promote national idiocy either. Something we also have too much of.

And by the way there is a ban on the export of all kinds of research, including that particular branch called biological and chemical warfare. Along with strong encryption. Moreover, almost every country has bans on the export of certain dangerous knowledge.

And there are many definitions of "Dangerous". I'd like to see you try to take the chemical blueprint for nerve gas out of the country, or the technical drawings for nuclear triggers, or for the US secret propellers. I'll send you a postcard when they lock you up in Leavenworth. Also, in case you're unaware, in the US you can be convicted and imprisoned in a Federal facility for applying for a foreign patent on a device the government deems to be a matter of National Security.

Re:Add an accelermeter to the stage seperation log

[LWATCDR]

Well the INS has an accelerometer and if it fails then you are in a world of hurt. I would assume that they are redundant.
What I would suggest would be something like this.
waitX secs
check accelerometer.
If still getting thrust wait a bit more.
If wait time is getting too long stage anyway and hope for the best.
There has to be an optimum time to stage and a last chance time to stage.
But it is just an idea.