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Google Can Predict the Flu
An anonymous reader mentions Google Flu Trends, a newly unveiled initiative of Google.org, Google's philanthropic arm. The claim is that this Web service, which aggregates search data to track outbreaks of influenza, can spot disease trends up to 2 weeks before Centers for Disease Control data can. The NYTimes writeup begins: "What if Google knew before anyone else that a fast-spreading flu outbreak was putting you at heightened risk of getting sick? And what if it could alert you, your doctor and your local public health officials before the muscle aches and chills kicked in? That, in essence, is the promise of Google Flu Trends, a new Web tool ... unveiled on Tuesday, right at the start of flu season in the US. Google Flu Trends is based on the simple idea that people who are feeling sick will tend to turn to the Web for information, typing things like 'flu symptoms; or 'muscle aches' into Google. The service tracks such queries and charts their ebb and flow, broken down by regions and states."
If you've received a flu shot in the past 6 years the only thing you got was a chance at a bad immune reaction and a concoction of mercury, detergent and some other nasty compounds.
That's blatantly untrue. The flu strain predictions have been fairly good in the last few years, with the exception of 2003-2004 when it was only marginally protective for one of the more common strains. Even that year, it was largely protective for most strains. Get your damn flu shot and protect the rest of us. For reference:
wikipedia
I am a geek attorney, but not your geek attorney unless you've already retained me. This is not legal advice.
Umm...
You're TOTALLY wrong. WHO-recommended flu vaccines are very effective. See here for an example: http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/publicat/ccdr-rmtc/06vol32/acs-07/index.html
And: "...the only thing you got was a chance at a bad immune reaction and a concoction of mercury, detergent and some other nasty compounds..." is just a stock anti-vaccination quackery.
Well, if you RTFA, you'll see that Google's method applied to the past four years very closely mathches trend data collected by physicians in coordination with the CDC. The proof is in the pudding.
You obviously haven't heard much about The 1918 Flu Pandemic
If you've received a flu shot in the past 6 years the only thing you got was a chance at a bad immune reaction and a concoction of mercury, detergent and some other nasty compounds.
Thimerosal (mercury) is only used in multi-dose vials. Although these are legal in the US, they are in practice not used here. The chances you received any thimerosal in your flu shot if you got in the US is almost nil.
I do agree with the OP that two years of the last decade the WHO predicted which strains would be dominant in the US incorrectly and thus the shot didn't immunize the recipient properly against the strains they would actually face.
http://lkml.org/lkml/2005/8/20/95
what's Russian for "Oh sh*t we're all gonna die!" anyway?
According to Google, it's this. It translates from Russian back into English as this, which reads as "Well crap, we all will die!" I'd paste it here, but we all know how Slashcode mangles any foreign languages or special symbols.
Oh, and I have no idea how I know this, but Russian for Brraaaaiiiiins is "Maaaassssgiiiiiiii".
So really, if Russian zombies ever invade, some poor sap is just going to think it's a hobo saying "Musky" and they get bit.
Random Thoughts From A Diseased Mind (Not For Dummies)
....Penicillin is an anti-biotic. Not going to do a thing against the flu. About the only development that has helped us fight the flu is vaccination. And maybe a small bit of improvement in personal hygiene.
The number of false positive searches would probably be somewhat low
I don't disagree with the gist of your post. But having just finished a rotation of family medicine, I couldn't resist commenting.. the number of people who come into the doctor's office thinking they have the "flu", "strep throat" etc but have nothing more than the common cold is ridiculous. The number of false positives is alarmingly high.
If you watched the animation you would realize that the "general depiction of a rising and falling curve" is the point. The google prediction is two weeks ahead of the CDC data for the same changes, and can be data mined far more specifically for location and such.
How the hell does WHO predict Flu strains for immunization? I am honestly ignorant and would like to know.
No magic, really.
Basically, they pick the dominant strain that is circulating at the time that they have to make a recommendation to the vaccine producers.
The vaccine strain has to be picked ~6 months before it is needed (it takes that long to grow it up in eggs in sufficient quantity). Typically, that is right at the peak of flu season for the other hemisphere (north/south).
The selection is based on the RNA sequence for the virus, and on antigenic tests (antibodies to the strain, grown up in ferrets usually).
The selection is made much earlier than the CDC/WHO would like, but the long lead time for vaccines means you have to do it. So the track record for picking vaccine strains the last few years is pretty remarkable.
The only 'wrong' strain that got picked was the H3N2 strain in 2003. Everyone knew which strain to pick, but they couldn't make it grow in eggs. So they picked another one that did grow (better than nothing) and a lot of people died. Since then, there has been a lot more interest in getting a cell-based vaccine pushed through the FDA here in the US...
-V-
Who can decide a priori? Nobody.
-Sartre