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Doubts Multiply About the "Long Tail"
fruey sends in a New Scientist analysis of the many second thoughts about the Long Tail theory. It summarizes four studies that show, in different markets, that the tail is both flatter and thinner than originally supposed, and that blockbusters are not going away in those markets — they are getting bigger. It's theorized that widely used collaborative filtering software is magnifying the winners' share of the various pies, and peer influence is a large contributor to consumer behavior.
What is the long tail? The summary, and TFA (I skimmed it so maybe I missed this) seem to indicate that the long tail theory means the more obscure stuff will be more popular. I thought it simply meant that you could make money off the obscure stuff when your distribution costs went to zero (because of the Internet). Am I missing something, or does the article interpret the idea of the long tail incorrectly?
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There's a certain segment of the population that enjoys finding obscure stuff. I'm not sure of the size, but I'd guess it's about the same size as the introverted segment of the population, around 25%, as the two behaviors are somewhat correlated. (i.e. folks who actively stray from the herd socially are more likely to express interest in consumables that are different from the herd's preferences) So, given that assumption, the drivers of a long tail market, "funky stuff seekers," could be overpowered by the general population.
On top of that, it's my guess that researchers in this area, as researchers in most areas, tend to be "funky stuff seekers" themselves. (I mean, it's their job to search and speculate on the edge of their field of study.) So, right off the bat, there's a bit of inherent bias in interpreting the effect of their cohort on the market. In other words, they're following the non-herd herd. :)
I mean, have the major labels actually put out that much good music in the last 10 years to even download? It seems like the bar has gotten awfully low.
Possibly. Or maybe you've just aged and your tastes have changed as they've become more refined (a nice way of saying you've become pickier). That sort of makes sense since you, being older now, are not the RIAA's primary target market (which tends to be in the teens, younger 20s, etc). Additionally, being older, you're also not as impressionable. A song that would have affected you at age 15 (when emotions were high, and many experiences were imprinting themselves on your mind) would barely make a dent now or may not even be noticeable.
There has been good stuff produced in the past 10 years. I know names like Britney Spears pops to mind when you think about the crap out there, but there are a lot of artists who are part of the big labels who don't get the same face or radio time for whatever reason.
The habit (of wanting what everybody else wants) is not waning as selection and availability increase. The habit is reinforced by the increasing channels by which we can see what everybody else wants and adjust our own wants to that.
The Internet, while logistically making the long tail feasible, is socially making blockbusters bigger.
Go green: turn off your refrigerator.
The idea was not only that the internet would enable sellers to tap into this market more effectively (through lower costs) but also that this would in turn lead to the tail becoming yet larger (both because increasing number of items sold means more potential sales, and because these rarer items may pick up additional momentum and sell more copies, thus giving more events with higher frequencies) as compared to the "blockbuster" events, which suffer due to increased choice.
More specifically, the issue is not "stuff one person will buy won't outsell stuff millions of people will buy" but rather "will many items purchased by a few people exceed the sales of a few items purchased by many people", given improved choice. The long tail hypothesis as presented in the Wired article says yes (or, at least, that the few-selling items will gain ground in the scenario presented by the internet) but evidence in this article says no. Perhaps still not the most shocking discovery in the world, but certainly a bit more than the trite discovery you make it out to be.
Also, as an aside, IQ is a very bad choice to illustrate the "long tail" because IQ is by definition normally distributed, and thus has a relatively short tail, as such things go - a long tail distribution is typically characterised by a significant slowdown in falloff as you move further from the median.