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Google's PageRank Predicts Nobel Prize Winners
KentuckyFC writes "The pattern of citations between scientific papers forms a network that has remarkable similarities to the network formed by the web. So why not use Google's PageRank, the world's most effective search algorithm to rank these papers in the same way it ranks websites? That's exactly what a couple of US researchers have done for physics papers published by the American Physical Society since 1893 (abstract). The results make interesting reading because almost all of the top ten papers resulted in (or were linked to) Nobel Prizes for their authors. Which means that studying the up-and-coming entries on the list ought to be a good way of predicting future winners. Better get your bets in before the bookies get wind of this."
Preparing for an inundation of people citation bombing each other in 3 ... 2 ... 1 ...
They take bets about this kind of thing?
Um, yeah, you would be surprised what offshore betting brings to the internet. My friend had money that Obama would say "Always bet on black" for his opening speech (paid 700:1) and that he would use the word 'banana' in his speech (paid 800:1). He lost them both. He also bets on every play during football games, especially returns. And he also bets on how long the national anthem lasts at the beginning of each game.
I wish I could link you to the site but it's hard to get to.
You may be able to say that there is always someone willing to quote you a line for anything anytime as long as they get a cut/rake.
My work here is dung.
Did the star make the movie a hit, or did the movie make the star?
For 'prediction' to be valuable, it has to work with citations that were linked *before* the paper got the Nobel.
So even in this article Nicola Cabibbo demonstrated to deserve the Nobel Prize:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicola_Cabibbo
Seriously, like this is some kind of weird correlation. No shit Nobel prize winning papers would have excellent page ranks.
Can I propose a simpler scheme where your friend just mails me money while being a racist nitwit? As long as that's his idea of a hobby...
What I'm listening to now on Pandora...
The algorithm for Google PageRank is based on the concept of citations from academia. If I remember correctly, the software was originally meant only to index academic papers and eventually grew to index the whole internet. So its not surprising that it predicts winners so well (depending on how much the Nobel committee weights citations in their decisions).
Why doesn't Slashdot ever get slashdotted?
I hope they never award the Nobel Prized based strictly on this. It could be a good way of pointing people in the right direction, but it will also let in a bunch of crap.
The last thing we need is scientists Googlebombing their papers (or creating junk networks to increase page ranks). I bet the Creationists would have a field day with this. "Look, our theories have scientific basis, check out our CiteRank".
Technology is a tool, it should never replace human intelligence.
Can I propose a simpler scheme where your friend just mails me money while being a racist nitwit? As long as that's his idea of a hobby...
Sure, as long as you are willing to send him back several thousand dollars in the event of some highly unlikely event. It's called "gambling" and he loves the it. He's also Indian American and has a great sense of humor.
Perhaps your "racism" comments would be more better directed at the Irish bookie making these offerings to the betting community? I think the "Obama Cliche Betting" section has most of what was being offered.
My work here is dung.
Not having read the actual paper, the following question comes to mind: did they include only the period of time *before* the physicists got their Nobels? Because if they included the citations after that - yeah, I imagine those authors got quite a few citations being Nobel Prize winners and all...
Let's see, so far, computer models *can* predict the weather and are probably *right* about climate.
But unsurprisingly have failed to accurately manage loan portfolios to higher risk buyers, failed to manage risk books for hedge funds, could not capture currency trading, simply because they are not predictable because they are traded by panic driven, idiots who are swayed by rumour, non existent trends, and computer predictions!
The predictable but complex is predictable, the unpredictable ... is unpredictable! no matter what the overpaid consultant says!
Puteulanus fenestra mortis
Top 40 music singles chart predicts highest-selling singles of the week with astounding precision!
"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something" - Plato
The next step is obviously to let PageRank select the Nobel winners and cut out the middleman.
Anyone else really get tired of the friggin tags for a lot of these stories? CorrelationIsNotCausation (this meme here really needs to go, saying it dosn't make you sound smart when it makes no sense or is bleedingly obvious) , and BecauseItWillGetGamed? GTFO. How the hell do you as a scientist game the entire specter of academic publishing to get yourself voted as a nobel prize winner, without you know, maybe actually doing some good science (and having it further recognized by being cited heavily by peers)? The tags are next to useless unless they are good as flamebait (yes am aware of the irony)
"If someone gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude." ~ Kevin, The Office
"You're older than you've ever been, and now you're even older."
There's a tool that tries to create a network of reviews, rather than just citations. In this case, the reviewer actually specifies the level of endorsement, whereas citations can mean anything. One of the most common reasons to cite a paper is to say "Our idea is way better than this lame idea", or "These guys did something similar, but it comparatively sucked". Sometimes the worst implementations get cited the most because they are so easy to improve upon. Why should that build up a paper?