Scientists Reconstruct Millennium's Coldest Winter

Ponca City, We love you writes "In England they called it the Great Frost, while in France it entered legend as Le Grand Hiver, three months of deadly cold that fell over Europe in 1709 ushering in a year of famine and food riots. Livestock died from cold in their barns, chicken's combs froze and fell off, trees exploded and travelers froze to death on the roads. It was the coldest winter in 500 years with temperatures as much as 7 degrees C below the average for 20th-century Europe. Now as part of the European Union's Millennium Project, Scientists are aiming to reconstruct the past 1000 years of Europe's climate using a combination of direct measurements, proxy indicators of temperature such as tree rings and ice cores, and data gleaned from historical documents."

Comments

I hope this is a lab model

[Chrisq]

Scientists Reconstruct Millennium's Coldest Winter

I hope this is a lab or computer model, and does not involve spraying particulates into the upper atmosphere.

Re:I hope this is a lab model

[interkin3tic]

This is not funny.
There are real crackpot scientists out there trying to do this.

See, that to me IS funny. The thought of failed evil scientists trying to seed the next ice age, only to be beaten by Greenhouse Gas Man... I'm going to make that into a movie.

So what about global warming ?

[Anonymous Coward]

More evidence to contradict common mythological belief in global warming! HA!

Re:So what about global warming ?

[Pentagram]

Well, if the climate models could re-create the last 1000 years

It's not too difficult to construct a model that simulates past events, because you know exactly what behaviour it should have.

I would just have a lot more faith in the models if they were open source. Correct me if I'm wrong (I'm not sure - some of them may be available),

No offence, I notice the qualifiers, but I suspect you're not well up on how the (academic) scientific world works.

First, you should note the difference between a scientific model and a computer model. Generally the scientific model is the theory and the computer model simply an implementation of it in program form (though some have argued that a computer model *is* a scientific model, but let's not confuse things).

Anyway, the theory is certainly not kept secret -- it's published in papers and discussed and argued over. That's the whole point of science!

The computer model though is generally not kept secret either. There's no need. The scientific theory is the key, and it doesn't harm the scientists to let others play with their model. Many programs used (I would guess) are open source or public domain. Even if not explicitly so, researchers will often supply copies of the code on request. If the code is not supplied, it's probably because the scientists haven't got around to it yet, or because no one needs it, or because the code involved is trivial.

but apparently it's more important that researchers keep their competitive advantages away from other researchers than to allow people to replicate their results.

I don't know where you've got this idea from, but this doesn't really happen. Researchers may keep ideas quiet until they publish to avoid someone else claiming the glory, but after they publish it's in their interests for as many people to use their work as possible. If people replicate their results, then that's independent verification of their results -- wonderful! If people build on their model to produce a better one, they get cited and gain influence -- great! The difficulty for researchers is actually the opposite problem -- getting people to notice and user their work. I'm sure there are counter examples, but that has been my experience.

Re:So what about global warming ?

[Maxo-Texas]

He would like to but the references were unfortunately lost in a hard drive melt down.

You just need to trust him on this.

Bad Science

[UbuntuLinux]

This article, and the research it talks about, is nothing but bad science. Computer models? Tree rings? Proxy indicators? This isn't the internet we're talking about, people, its the climate. IE the temperature. And how do you measure temperature? Well, I use a thermometer, why can't these people?

We all know that, over time, layers of sediment build up, and so, by digging into the ground you are seeing the earth as it was some time ago - so why don't the scientists just use a thermometer to measure the temperature of the soil at different depths?

Re:Bad Science

[Timothy Brownawell]

This article, and the research it talks about, is nothing but bad science. Computer models? Tree rings? Proxy indicators? This isn't the internet we're talking about, people, its the climate. IE the temperature. And how do you measure temperature? Well, I use a thermometer, why can't these people?

They've found a way to turn a supercomputer into an extremely powerful thermometer, far better than that wimpy glass tube you have.

We all know that, over time, layers of sediment build up, and so, by digging into the ground you are seeing the earth as it was some time ago - so why don't the scientists just use a thermometer to measure the temperature of the soil at different depths?

Because their superpowerful supercomputing thermometer is far to big to stick in the ground like that.

Re:Bad Science

[Mister Whirly]

"IE the temperature"

I use Firefox to get the temperature.

Re:Not that cold

[Anonymous Coward]

... but trees, and chickens and many types of livestock endure temps that low regularly every single year, which makes me wonder if there was some hyperbole going on back in 1709.

Are you suggesting Sir that our ancestors might be prone to exaggerating? Telling tall tales? Prone to jest?

Hogwash I say! Pure unadulterated hogwash.

Now if you'll excuse me I've an appointment with Baron Münchhausen.

Re:A somewhat Conspiracy-Theory-ish observation

[Mascot]

Where I live we just broke a 70 year old record for snowfall in a given period. I see no sign of global warming making this place snowfree anytime soon.

I keep my car running 24/7 to try to help it along, but I still have to shovel the snow _upwards_ when clearing it off the roof.

Recently read that the ski resorts in the Alps are also struggling with the highest snow fall in a decade.

We clearly need bigger cars.

Re:A story for Depression II?

[Anonymous Coward]

The last time I took the "wow! it snowed!" photos was 2007.

This was like two years ago. You must be a very old man.

Re:Not that cold

[Lumpy]

No I mean trees with non-sound judgment. Come on it's cold out and they are not wearing a sweater? What's up with that!

Sometimes the spelling checker backfires, this is one of those times.

Re:Ask and you shall receive...

[phosphorylate this]

Jeesh guys, at the very least can one side pick a player who's name doesn't begin with "M".

Mann, McIntyre and McKitrick, plus all the abbreviating! How is a sheeple like me supposed to understand your arguments if we can't tell who is wearing the white hat and who wears the black?

Re:A somewhat Conspiracy-Theory-ish observation

[mqduck]

However, if the news is trustworthy, the current fires are most all set by insane criminals.

Or their descendants.