Slashdot Mirror
Arctic Ice Extent Understated Because of "Sensor Drift"
dtjohnson writes "The National Snow and Ice Data
Center (NSIDC) has been at the forefront of predicting doom in the arctic as ice melts due to global warming. In May, 2008 they went so far as to predict that the North Pole would be ice-free during
the 2008 'melt season,' leading to a lively Slashdot discussion. Today, however, they say that they have been the victims of 'sensor drift' that led
to an underestimation of Arctic ice extent by as much as 500,000 square
kilometers. The problem was discovered after they received
emails from puzzled readers, asking why obviously sea-ice-covered
regions were showing up as ice-free, open ocean. It turns
out that the NSIDC relies on an older, less-reliable method of tracking
sea ice extent called SSM/I that does not agree with a newer method called AMSR-E. So why doesn't NSIDC use the newer AMSR-E data? 'We do not use AMSR-E data in our analysis because it
is not consistent with our historical data.' Turns out that the AMSR-E data only goes back to 2002, which is probably not long enough for the NSIDC to make sweeping conclusions about melting. The AMSR-E data is updated daily and is available to the public. Thus far, sea ice
extent in 2009 is tracking ahead of 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008, so
the predictions of an ice-free north pole might be premature."
And for those who say "long term weather is easy to predict", I'm still waiting for the "warm, wet winter" that was predicted for this location--as it's again 10 degrees BELOW NORMAL YET AGAIN today--it's only been above normal a couple of days the entire winter. If this is "proof" that you globil warmin' doomsayers can predict long term trends, than it looks like another ice age is coming...
dtjohnson,
...near-real-time products do not undergo the same level of quality control as the final archived products, which are used in scientific research published in peer-reviewed journals.
I love how you cherry picked the article and mislead everyone into believing the analysis and predictions of NSIDC are flawed. Did you even read the article???
From the article:
"Sensor drift, although infrequent, does occasionally occur and it is one of the things that we account for during quality control measures prior to archiving the data. See below for more details.
We caution users of the near-real-time products that any conclusions from such data must be preliminary. "
Do you understand now?
Jackass.
"The fact that there are "Denialists", "Believers", "Supporters" and "Followers" makes this area of science look a lot like religion. The fact that it also includes politicians, corporations, lawyers, and lots of appeals to emotion ("Someone think of the cuddly polar bears!") makes it look a lot like pork. Those two things alone removes much of it's potential appeal to me as I heavily devalue things of that nature as a waste of my time."
Well said.