The Underappreciated Risks of Severe Space Weather

circletimessquare notes a New Scientist piece calling attention to a recent study by the National Academy of Sciences, which attempts to raise awareness of the dangers of severe solar electromagnetic storms. "In 1859, amateur astronomer Richard Carrington noticed 'two patches of intensely bright and white light' near some sunspots. At the same time, Victorian era magnetometers went off the charts, stunning auroras were being viewed at the equator, and telegraph networks were disrupted — sparks flew from terminals and ignited telegraph paper on fire. It became known as the Carrington event, and the National Academy of Sciences worries about the impact of another such event today and the lack of awareness among officials. It would induce un-designed-for voltages in all high-voltage, long-distance power lines, and destroy transformers, as Quebec learned in 1989. Without electricity, water would stop flowing from the tap, gasoline would stop being pumped, and health care would cease after the emergency generators gave up the ghost after 72 hours. Replacing all of the transformers would take months, if not years. The paradox would be that underdeveloped countries would fare better than developed ones. Our only warning system is a satellite called the Advanced Composition Explorer, in solar orbit between the Sun and the Earth. It is 11 years old and past its planned lifespan. It might give us as much as 15 minutes of warning, and transformers might be able to be disconnected in time. But currently no country has such a contingency plan."

Comments

Re:Doomsday situation

[I.M.O.G.]

12 months? I ignored that part because it was painfully naive.

If they have a 12 month production cycle, what do you think that factory is doing right now? Sitting empty waiting for a catastrophe to occur so that they can hire an entire staff to start their 12 month production cycle? Get a clue.

They are producing units right now, albeit well under max capacity. The units they produce are being sold across the global market, because thats the nature of big electrical infrastructure equipment. Whats not immediately sold is being warehoused until it will be sold. When the catastrophe hits in your imagination these warehouses will be depleted and production will ramp to max and the problem will solve itself.

Your also basing your argument on the assumption that nothing has occured since 1859 which makes our electrical grid more robust and resistant to such disturbances.

All in all, there are a lot of mitigating factors you have to ignore in order to expect that when an event like this occurs that entire regions of the US will be without power for months. Its a pipe dream.