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Why AT&T Wants To Keep the iPhone Away From Verizon
Hugh Pickens writes "Saul Hansell of the NY Times has an interesting post analyzing AT&T's earnings report and highlighting the enormous stakes involved in the renewal of its exclusive contract to distribute Apple's iPhone in the United States. Hansell does some rough calculations: 'If the average iPhone customer brings in $90 a month, or $1,080 a year in revenue, and the operating profit margin stays constant at 26 percent, that means an iPhone customer represents at least $561 in operating profit over a two-year contract,' says Hansell. 'Put another way, if the company gets 2.5 million new customers a year because of its iPhone exclusivity, the deal represents at least $700 million a year in operating profits — profits that it could lose if Verizon sold the iPhone, too.' With those sort of numbers, AT&T has every reason to make Apple an offer it can't refuse to keep its exclusive deal for another few years. Of course, the incentives for Verizon are presumably the mirror image, so expect Verizon to come to Cupertino, checkbook in hand, to see what sort of deal they can make. 'The benefit of somewhat more iPhone sales from wide distribution is likely to be swamped by a huge bid from AT&T to keep exclusivity, and an equally high bid from Verizon to win some (or maybe even all) of the business for itself.'"
You have some breathing room. It will take Verizon at least a year to figure out how to disable all of the iPhone's features so their customers have to buy them back one at a time.
Apple said from the beginning it did not want to use CDMA because of its limited range to only North America. GSM is used around the world. Verizon Wireless execs have recently said (check out macrumors and appleinsider.com for the specifics) they don't expect to make an offer to carry iPhones until they roll out 4G LTE technology (aka the next GSM version), the same 4G technology ATT is using.
You won't see an non-ATT iPhone until LTE hits.
Verizon rejected the iPhone in the beginning, and they will do it again for the same reason: they want control over their network. They don't want to become just a dumb pipe, because then they are a commodity. Apple having complete control over the iPhone sets a dangerous precedent, it was the first time a phone maker had so much control.
From my perspective the commoditization of the networks can't happen soon enough. The network maintainers SHOULD be separated from the service providers, and the service providers should lease the network from the maintainers, like Virgin Mobile does now. This will increase competition, and be the best for the customer. The same thing should happen with internet service.
Qxe4
Sounds a lot like....
Brett
just like with computers, apple wants to make only minor variations of a model. for the iphone it's how much storage you want. with their computers it's only a few minor variations as well.
more choices means more expensive to produce, more testing, etc. Less profits due to higher costs.
and with CDMA, why make a phone for a dying technology?
A Verizon iPhone would be in the best interest of Apple, even if they had to give up some profits. Why?
1) AT&T's network Sucks. I have heard many complaints that the iPhone is wonderful -- at everything but being a plain cellphone.
2) AT&T's customer service sucks. DNA from a big telco. Monopoly mindset. Nuff said!
3) Mindshare is king. If there were a Verizon iPhone, there would be more Apple iPhone mindshare. I hated to leave Verizon's better network and service for AT&T's suckyness, but I did it anyways. Lower that barrier, and many more people like me would have an iPhone. In the long run mindshare = more profits!
Experiences with cell phone companies are so varied, it's impossible to draw any conclusions approaching 1) or 2)... if anything, all you can come up with is "All cell phone companies suck."
For every "AT&T's network sucks" you'll have a "Verizon's network sucks", and the same for customer service.
As an example, my wife and I both defected from Verizon. I've been with AT&T for 6-7 years, and her since the iPhone 3G launched. She left Verizon because of several experiences with rude customer service, and spotty coverage.