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The Frontier of the MMO Genre
Eurogamer is running a feature about what they call "frontier" MMOs, games that are on the fringe of a market flooded with attempts to replicate the success of Everquest and World of Warcraft. Many publishers already have more MMO projects than they know what to do with, and often leave the more unusual and unique games out in the cold, preferring to stick with familiar IP or a tried-and-true approach. "Like any gold-rush, the MMO market also attracts a different kind of adventurer: the fearless, inexperienced, determined and solitary dreamer, making a go of it on nothing but their own resources and pluck. The online distribution and direct revenue streams — be they subscriptions or micro-transactions — make it theoretically possible to make a mint in MMOs without any help from the gaming establishment at all." They take a brief look at several such games currently in development, including Earthrise, Gatheryn, and Global Agenda.
Ultimately, I think WoW may actually be bad for the development of MMOs as a genre. So long as WoW controls so much of the market, it's going to be nearly impossible for new MMOs, especially from smaller companies or based on original IP, to get any traction.
When it comes to MMOs, they face a chicken and egg problem (or maybe chicken and chicken problem would be more accurate), players won't join if there are no (or very few) other players. You need players to get [more] players. And when most of your potential players are in WoW, what do you do to pry them away?
WoW is certainly not beneficial for MMO development, but not because of its sub numbers, but because of VC expectations. 5 years ago, before WoW was launched, getting 200k subs in a year was already great. Today, it's a reason to fold.
The 70% market share of WoW don't hurt the other games too much. Sure, the big players of their time lost subs, but they were reaching their life expectance anyway. WoW hit the market right when the market needed something. But their often toutet 70% market share are to a sizable portion, and I'm wagering 80% here, subs that didn't exist before, not subs "stolen" from other games. 4 of 5 WoW players didn't play an MMO before.
What really hurts new games are expectations. The "must be like WoW" mantra that's chanted throughout the marketing halls. So every single game that comes out looks like a cheap (or rather, expensive) WoW knockoff. Sometimes so blatant that it outright hurts.
And as it has been stated before, you CANNOT make the new WoW. Do you remember what WoW was like when it was launched? 2 days per week almost assured downtime. A good 30% of quests that either didn't work, weren't finishable under certain conditions or were simply impossible unless you were a specific class. And let's not start about balancing. A game that was started like this today would meet the bargain bin 2 months after release (at the same time, their servers are merged down to 4-6), and a year later it's closing time.
In a nutshell, do not try to beat WoW on their own game. You cannot. You would have to sink YEARS of development into it, polish it to the point that WoW is today after almost a decade of development and millions of gametesters (who also pay to do the work). Make another game. And most of all, aim lower! If you cannot survive on 200k subs, don't do it at all. If it takes off like WoW, great. But don't hope for it or, worse, outright require it.
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