Linux Reaches 1% Usage Share

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Posted by kdawson on Friday May 1, 2009 @04:46AM from the hitslink-confirms-it dept.

je ne sais quoi writes "The April data is out for the Net Applications 'market share' survey of operating systems (more accurately referred to as a usage share). For the first time, Linux has reached 1%. This past month the Linux share increased by 0.12% which is well above the average monthly increase of 0.02%. Historically, the Net Applications estimate of market share has been lower than that of other organizations who measure this, but the abnormally large increase reported this month brings it closer to the median estimate of 1.11%. For other operating systems, Windows XP continued its slow decline by 0.64% to 62.21%, whereas Vista use is still increasing to 23.90%, but its rate of adoption is slowing. That is, this month's increase of 0.48% is well below the 12-month average increase of 0.78% and down from the peak rate of increase of 1.00% per month on average in January-February 2008. The total Windows share dropped to 87.90%. Mac OS use decreased slightly to 9.73% from 9.77%, but usage share of the iPhone and iPod Touch combined increased by 0.1%."

30 of 414 comments (clear)

Boy oh boy! by BadAnalogyGuy · 2009-05-01 04:47 · Score: 5, Funny

I can't wait! At this rate, 2024 will be the year of Linux on the Desktop!
1. Re:Boy oh boy! by Diabolus+Advocatus · 2009-05-01 04:56 · Score: 5, Interesting
  
  My girlfriends mother bought a laptop about two years ago. She struggled with Windows as she had never used a computer much before. I installed gOS and she's doing fantastic with it.
  Just because you are used to Windows and find it hard to transition, don't blame the OS, blame yourself.
2. Re:Boy oh boy! by levell · 2009-05-01 04:56 · Score: 4, Insightful
  
  I can't wait! At this rate, 2024 will be the year of Linux on the Desktop!
  If it increases at 1 percentage point per year (which is what is has increased in the whole of its life so far), we'll reach 100% a lot later than 2024
  
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3. Re:Boy oh boy! by A.+B3ttik · 2009-05-01 05:00 · Score: 5, Funny
  
  My girlfriends mother bought a laptop about two years ago.
  
  Who do you think you're fooling with this?
4. Re:Boy oh boy! by orkybash · 2009-05-01 05:00 · Score: 5, Insightful
  
  I often wonder how easy a time people who are new to computing can have with Linux. It seems to me that re-learning can in many cases be a harder barrier to cross than learning.
5. Re:Boy oh boy! by ColdWetDog · 2009-05-01 05:06 · Score: 4, Funny
  
  A pair of rabbits will produce offspring fairly regularly. This does not mean that the number of rabbits grows at a linear rate.
  Yeah, but we're talking about Jackalopes here. Not clear at all if their population growth follows a geometric progression.
  
  --
  Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
6. Re:Boy oh boy! by TooMuchToDo · 2009-05-01 05:09 · Score: 4, Interesting
  
  Keep in mind that Linux is the OS used by Google across hundreds of thousands of their servers. How many people a day use their search, gmail, maps, and other services? Linux use is up, just not in the traditional desktop sense. In another year or two, you could probably get away with a slim Linux image that boots into Firefox, and use that for your basic needs if the work/home environment allowed for it.
7. Re:Boy oh boy! by fl!ptop · 2009-05-01 05:53 · Score: 5, Interesting
  
  I often wonder how easy a time people who are new to computing can have with Linux.
  i sell ubuntu systems to regular users. as part of a purchase, if they're local i offer to install it in their house and give an hour of time to answer questions for free. after a brief orientation (don't buy a new ipod, before buying a printer check here or call me, etc.), i spend the time showing them how to find and install software using synaptic, where update alerts appear and what to do, how to use firefox instead of ie, and a few other tips. i leave with them knowing they can call or email me anytime they have a question and i'll do my best to answer it.
  i've been doing this for several years now. i always install the latest LTS version of ubuntu, and i offer to do software upgrades for $60. most customers are happy they no longer have to deal w/ virus, malware and spyware, even though there's a bit of a learning curve. i've had a few who installed xp because they just couldn't "get it," and out of them at least 4 of them come back with, you guessed it, malware and virus infected boxes. i've also had 2 customers who brought the computer back and asked me to set it up for dual-boot w/ xp. i found out later they boot to windows only to use itunes (being unable to get it working correctly in linux) and generally use the ubuntu side for everything else.
  for the most part, i've found that spending just that initial hour is enough to put the customer at ease. additionally, knowing i'm just a phone call away helps too.
  for customers who aren't local, i prepare a pdf document that basically contains what i go over w/ the locals in that orientation hour.
  i've had just a couple of customers who were "new users," who basically had never used a computer before. since they don't know the difference (that there's other o/s's that aren't linux), they take to it a little more quickly.
  
  --
  When you recognize love in another and realize how precious it is, everything else seems so insignificant.
8. Re:Boy oh boy! by TooMuchToDo · 2009-05-01 06:06 · Score: 5, Insightful
  
  That's like saying "I don't drive a semi to work, therefore no one is using them", while neglecting to understand that almost all goods are shipped via semi trailer.
9. Re:Boy oh boy! by miknix · 2009-05-01 06:12 · Score: 5, Interesting
  
  I did setup a gentoo desktop at my parent's house. They use it regularly and they like it a lot. They only need a browser (with flash to browse youtube), a music player, pdf viewer, text editor and java. Java is needed because the government taxes simulation program is written in java (cross-platform).
  Since I have my own personal server at home, I have shell access to the desktop computer and I deal myself with the updates.
  I must say that is kind of funny when my parents see on the TV news that FOOBAR virus is in the wild and if they shouldn't take care. :P
10. Re:Boy oh boy! by cp.tar · 2009-05-01 06:20 · Score: 4, Interesting
  
  Both my father and my grandfather got Ubuntu as their first operating system. I did not want to have to fix all the viruses and spyware and whatnot they'd get from porn and other stuff the internet is for. As complete newbies, there was nothing to impede their learning process, and my father for one is getting along quite nicely. Him I've given a Windows partition, too, and he uses Windows for some tasks, but he largely prefers Linux.
  Thing is, the only thing that really prevents learning a new system is the magical, ritualistic thinking acquired from rote learning. I let my father explore Linux, explained him the basic concepts and had him understand the basics of the filesystem. Then I showed him Windows, and let him notice the ways in which it was similar. That was enough to let him continue on his own for the most part; I still have to teach him some things, which is rare because we live in different countries, but it is enough for me to show him the basics. Sometimes I don't know more than that because I do not use all the things he needs, but he does learn.
  My grandfather is a more recent initiate in the arts of computing, but he seems to have taken fairly well to the internet, organizing his photos, and card games. Now I'm teaching him how to rip his CDs to disk. Still, he does learn more by rote; his memory is not what it used to be, and his attention span is rather like a 4-year-old's.
  
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11. Re:Boy oh boy! by nine-times · 2009-05-01 07:39 · Score: 4, Insightful
  
  There are distros like ubuntu that try to make as much as possible accessible from the surface, but when you have to do something not exposed by pretty control panels you need a level of understanding far beyond that of the average user.
  That's true of Windows and OSX too. Don't tell me you'd advise normal low-level users to open up the Windows Registry.
  So here's the real question: how much of the functionality required by new/unknowledgeable users is not exposed by pretty control panels?
12. Re:Boy oh boy! by TheLinuxSRC · 2009-05-01 07:48 · Score: 4, Insightful
  
  Which is *exactly* the reason why he mentions it to his clients. If someone is made aware of an issue before it becomes a problem (thus giving them all the information they need to avert the potential problem), in their mind there is no problem.
13. Re:Boy oh boy! by Dunkirk · 2009-05-01 07:58 · Score: 5, Insightful
  
  Sounds like someone hasn't had very good luck with using Linux on the desktop. Yeah, well, me neither, but it hasn't stopped me from using it on my desktop machines (both at home and at work) for over 10 years now. You can say it sucks, but, in my experience, it just sucks DIFFERENTLY than the alternatives.
  
  --
  Acts 17:28, "For in Him we live, and move, and have our being."
14. Re:Boy oh boy! by Culture20 · 2009-05-01 08:05 · Score: 5, Funny
  
  My girlfriends mother bought a laptop about two years ago.
  Who do you think you're fooling with this?
  More importantly, is the apostrophe [iend's] or [iends']? That's an important distinction.
15. Re:Boy oh boy! by Requiem18th · 2009-05-01 13:51 · Score: 5, Interesting
  
  Is not that easy. I'll try to make it short, my aunt, a prototypical Aunt Tillie user was getting sick of malware and viruses util I installed ubuntu in her laptop. Everything went alright but some problems started to creep.
  OpenOffice fonts looked "jagged", only ate the default zoom level but that was enough.
  Some websites don't load ok, these resulted to be using very intrusive windows only drm plugins, (unsusrprisingly, they were christian radio stations, those pious bastards)
  The old printer, that didn't work because of bad drivers still didn't work.
  One excel/VBA game/joke some friend sent her didn't work.
  That was the straw that broke the camel's back! She bought a Vista Laptop with MS Office 2007 home edition.
  Several hundred $$$ later, the printer still doesn't work, those problematic radio stations still don't work but at least the leaping frog VBA game did work now. A year later it seems to have gotten a virus.
  My point is, ye old saying, Linux must be twice as good as windows to get the same level of respect.
  
  --
  But... the future refused to change.
But seriously folks by BadAnalogyGuy · 2009-05-01 04:51 · Score: 5, Insightful

Should we really be including both Windows and iPhone in the same OS usage chart?
My John Deere riding mower does a bang-up job cutting my lawn (get the fuck off it), but it's not quite built for the same purpose as my around-town Escalade.
1. Re:But seriously folks by TheModelEskimo · 2009-05-01 05:37 · Score: 5, Insightful
  
  Windows is indeed a lot like an Escalade. An overpriced, bloated, and inefficient showcase of false beauty.
  
  And I guess the iPhone is a lot like a John Deere riding mower, too. People buy it for the brand prestige, then get angry when their neighbor goes out and buys one the next day. Because everybody knows your neighbor is a jerk.
GIGO? by AliasMarlowe · 2009-05-01 04:54 · Score: 5, Insightful

How do they come up with these numbers anyway? The jump from 0.90 to 1.02 is relatively large, as was the drop from 0.91 to 0.71 a few months ago. Do they have uncertainty estimates? Inquiring minds want to know.

--
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I wonder how it breaks down... by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · 2009-05-01 04:56 · Score: 4, Insightful

When you look at browser numbers, it is reasonably doable to get a sense of where the browsers are being used. IE6 spikes during working hours, while FF and friends increase on nights and weekends. Fairly obviously, there is a huge difference in usage rates between workplaces, especially big ones, and the home/small business market.

I'd be curious to know how Linux's market share breaks down in those terms. Is the 1% growth assimilation of the more or less geeky home/school user? Is it j. average user with a netbook or machine set up for them by somebody else? Did a few large corporations shift 250,000 call-center seats in order to save a few bucks on what are basically just terminal emulators?

I'd be curious to know what the data actually say; because you can tell the story either way: You can say "Linux will make it in the home setting first" and argue that the home has relatively fast app turnover, few critical legacy apps, and tends to suffer from viruses/spyware/malware because it lacks professional admins. On the other hand, you could argue "Linux will make it on the corporate side first" because they have highly standardized hardware and software needs, so there are fewer driver issues and "why isn't aunt maybell's scrapbooking shareware working" issues, and professional admins can handle the tricky configuration bits. Whenever something can be argued either way, that is a sign that you need actual data.
Re:Economy and No-Man's Land by PrescriptionWarning · 2009-05-01 05:00 · Score: 4, Interesting

A friend of mine recently had a similar decision to make. His XP PC he's had since college finally kicked the bucket, as in hardware failure, and he didn't have the money nor the real need to purchase a new computer with Vista at the tune of $500. So I ended up helping him out, sold him my old PC from early college years which was similar in specs to his old one, only I stuck Ubuntu on it and sold it for $50. Now he's able to get back to his basic computer needs, which are mostly web surfing, email, and MP3 playback/syncing. It works with his video iPod and works with his digital camera which for some reason doesn't work on his girlfriend's windows laptop. Not too shabby I'd say.
Methodology? How do they measure that? by wowbagger · 2009-05-01 05:00 · Score: 5, Insightful

I get very suspicious of any site that doesn't go into detail on their methodology for making a claim like this.
Especially when the site seems to be a web advertiser.
Have they corrected for the fact that Linux users are more likely to be able to use a variety of ad blocking and filtering tools, and thus may not be showing up in their statistics?
I always try to be clear about exactly what I am measuring - what are these guys measuring? When they say "market share", what "market" are they referring to? "Users who see our ads?" "Users visiting this set of sites (many of which refuse to work with That Which Is Not Internet Explorer)?"
Absent a statement of exactly of WHAT this is 1%, and a statement of methodologies used to make that measurement, this is a very questionable number.

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I used to be in that 1% by pablo_max · 2009-05-01 05:02 · Score: 5, Interesting

I consider myself to be a bit more advanced than the typical computer user..maybe not compared to the slashdot crowd.
I had Ubuntu(gusty) on a partition for a long time. For about 3 months for so I used it as my primary partition. I liked the look and feel for the most part.
I even enjoyed learning the command line stuff to get my screen rez correct..it took a long while to set that damn thing to 1366x766! But, once I figured it out, that was that.
In the end, I went back to Windows and that is where I will stay and here's why...
Bluetooth!
At that time, my wife lived overseas and we used skype to talk. None of my Bluetooth dongles would work in the slightest with Linux. I tried and tried and tried, but could not make it work..and hell.. at that time my job was maintaining and creating bluetooth RF test cases!!!!
I was so sick of having to boot to windows every time i needed to "do" something I said forgot it..im sticking with windows.
the power of the pre-loading by Locutus · 2009-05-01 05:08 · Score: 5, Insightful

back in the old days( ~1994 ), IBM was fortunate enough to find one or two top OEMs in Germany who couldn't be paid off by Microsoft and accepted the technically superior IBM OS/2 as their primary preloaded OS. In one short year, OS/2 had 25% marketshare in Germany.
Preloading is the game and Microsoft knows this and is willing to pay out millions in marketing kickbacks to make sure a Microsoft OS is what is preloaded instead of a Linux distro. Remember the ClassmatePC deal in Nigeria? Microsoft got caught purchasing the favor of replacing the preloaded Mandriva with Windows XP once they were delivered. Egypt took tens of millions and became a Windows-only government at the expense of the OLPC MOU for a million units. And that is just the tip of the iceberg. Microsoft just redirected billions of "R&D" funds and you know where those will likely end up? Most likely place is in the pockets of companies looking to preload Android, Ubuntu Netbook Remix, or other Linux products. IMO.
It's the preloads. So when you hear the press complaining about Linux as it came from the OEM and not about installation problems, it's game-on and most likely game-over for MSFT.
LoB

--
"Anyone who stands out in the middle of a road looks like roadkill to me." --Linus
netbooks reverting to Windows by bcrowell · 2009-05-01 05:09 · Score: 5, Interesting

The really troubling trend, from my point of view as an OSS fanboy, is that netbooks are reverting to Windows. I teach at a community college. A year or two ago, one my students showed me his eeePC running Linux, which was the first eee I'd seen. This year my wife saw a eee with Linux in Target for $270. "Wow," I thought, "Linux in Target!" I bought her a eee with Linux (not the Target one, but a $400-ish model, via Amazon) as a birthday present, but the wifi was misconfigured. Asus tech support told me the wrong card was installed, and there was no way to fix it in software. We returned it and gave up on the netbook idea. If you look at the reviews on Amazon, you'll see tons of customers complaining about problems with their eee/Linux boxes. Now when I walk through the cafeteria at work, I see lots of students using netbooks, but when I sneak a peek over their shoulders, it's always Windows. IMO Asus really dropped the ball by not getting the quality of their Linux configuration right. They were supposed to be the flagship of the new wave of Linux on netbooks, and it just didn't happen. I guess this kind of thing is just expensive to get right.
It will be interesting to see if this predicted new wave of ARM-based netbooks really comes to market, and whether they really have a decent price-to-performance ratio. If so, it would be great, because Windows doesn't run on ARM, and if the price gets down to $100-200, there's really no room for profit for MS even if they did make an ARM version of Windows. But so far, the history of netbooks has all been bait and switch. They keep saying they're going to have them at price x, but they're always really at price 2x. Performance is still a problem, too. I'd hate for people to get the impression that Linux is slow and crappy, simply because netbooks are underpowered to run Firefox/js/flash.

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Re:In related news... by Chabo · 2009-05-01 05:12 · Score: 4, Informative

It's because 90% of /. readers browse /. using their Windows work machines, then go home and use Linux.

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Re:Inexplicable statistical variations by je+ne+sais+quoi · 2009-05-01 05:41 · Score: 5, Insightful

Hi there, submitter here. One certainly wonders what the statistical variability is, it's probably pretty high for month to month data. That's what I was trying to do by reporting the 12 month average increase or decrease. I posted a chart of that data here. Rather than look at percent usage share, this is the percent change in usage share for a given month. If it's positive, it means the OS grew, if it's negative it means it shrank.

Ultimately this is one of those things like political polling data, nobody can really know what the actual answer is. What's interesting here is that there are big bumps in all the OSes, which is the random error, but if you look at the averages, they follow what you might expect. That is, XP stopped increasing a long time ago, but didn't start to shrink (go negative) until Vista was released. Vista really is slowing in its growth, you can clearly see the peak in the average data right at Jan or Feb 2008. For linux, the latest little uptick is this newest data, which in itself is probably insignificant (as is the arbitrary 1% mark), but what is significant is that linux on average is enjoying positive growth as there's more upticks than downticks, as is OS X.

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Re:bluetooth RF engineer and Ubuntu by Erikderzweite · 2009-05-01 05:44 · Score: 5, Informative

To be fair, bluetooth audio wasn't simple in Linux (and I know what I'm talking about, I've been using a bluetooth headset for some years with Linux now).
First you had to use snd-bt-sco driver with btsco program, you couldn't avoid some console work, had to explicitly start btsco to make it work. But it did work pretty stable, however.
Then, around bluez-3, they have started using ALSA for bluetooth, you had to put your dongle ID in .asoundrc and you were in trouble using Skype on 64-bit systems (at least so was I, had to copy some libs from 32-bit chroot to make it work).
Only about a month ago, with pulseaudio-0.9.15 and blueman project it has become possible for me to set up and use my headset the easy way, exactly as I want it to work, and that's without knowing its ID, without console fiddling and so on.
You turn it on and pulseaudio reroutes earlier chosen sound streams to the headset, even if it's already playing. I can pick up/end twinkle calls with headset's button, blueman's killer feature for me.
Skype on my 64-bit system has trouble with it though, but they promise a fix soon (doesn't matter for my family because we use SIP with ekiga/twinkle anyway).
Of course, there has been bluesoeil for Linux, but I haven't used it.
Re:what's the margin of error? by hey! · 2009-05-01 05:48 · Score: 5, Funny

The margin of error is the numerical magnitude by which, within a specified degree of statistical certainty, the true value of a figure for a population may vary from a specific statistical estimate of of it. due to the effects of chance on the composition of the sample population used to calculate that estimate.
But that's not important now.

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Quick! Do your part! by Anonymous Coward · 2009-05-01 05:52 · Score: 5, Funny

Windows Registry Editor Version 5.00 [HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE\SOFTWARE\Microsoft\Windows\CurrentVersion\Internet Settings\5.0\User Agent] "Platform"="X11; U; Linux i686"