Swine Flu Genetics Suggest a Vaccine Is Possible

Kristina at Science News writes "The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced findings May 1 from genetic studies of swine flu virus from six different countries. A strong similarity from country to country suggests all the infections are from one strain, making a vaccine a strong possibility. It will be several months at least before such a vaccine would be developed, though."

Comments

Re:H1N1 A flu, please

[pnuema]

Because the last time we saw a flu with this mortality rate, it killed between 20 and 100 million. Back then, we had a sixth of the world's current population. So, taking into account modern medicine (the following is just a wild ass guess), let's say it only kills 10% of what it would have in 1918. That's half a million dead in the US alone (300 million people * .4 infection penetration * .04 mortality * .1 = 480,000 dead.) That's more than Katrina, 9/11, the tsunami, and all of the earthquakes for the last 10 years combined. In the US alone. Can you imagine Mumbai?

That's a whole lot of fucking car accidents. Our information has improved in the last week, but what we knew last Monday looked positively apocalyptic. We still don't have enough information to rule this thing out as a major plague. So, given the stakes, I think a little careful scrutiny is warranted. You don't mess around with plague, man. Out of all the natural disasters humans face, it is absolutely the most deadly, and most certain. It will happen. Maybe not this time, but it will.

Re:H1N1 A flu, please

[pnuema]

Because the last time we saw a flu with this mortality rate, it killed between 20 and 100 million. Back then, we had a sixth of the world's current population. So, taking into account modern medicine (the following is just a wild ass guess), let's say it only kills 10% of what it would have in 1918. That's half a million dead in the US alone (300 million people * .4 infection penetration * .04 mortality * .1 = 480,000 dead.) That's more than Katrina, 9/11, the tsunami, and all of the earthquakes for the last 10 years combined. In the US alone. Can you imagine Mumbai?

As of Monday of last week, we knew two things that this flu had in common with the Spanish flu of 1918: that this flu killed healthy adults between 20 and 40, and that the mortality rate given the information at the time was between 4 and 5 percent. In the last week, those mortality figures have not held up, but what we knew last Monday looked positively apocalyptic. We still don't have enough information to rule this thing out as a major plague because we know of less than a thousand cases outside of Mexico. We just don't have a large enough sample, and in 1918, it started out weak in the spring, and slaughtered in the fall. So, given the stakes, I think a little careful scrutiny is warranted. You don't mess around with plague, man. Out of all the natural disasters humans face, it is absolutely the most deadly, and most certain. It will happen. Maybe not this time, but it will.