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The Problem With Estimating Linux Desktop Market Share
jammag writes "It's long been one of those exceptionally hard-to-quantify numbers: exactly what percentage of the desktop PC market is held by Linux? Doubters suggest it hovers around a negligible one percent, while partisans suggest it's in excess of 10 percent. Bruce Byfield explores the various sources of estimates, dismissers' and fan boys' alike, and guesstimates it might realistically be 5-6%. Still, he admits, 'the objectivity of numbers is often just a myth.'"
Can't wait until Wolfram Alpha goes online. This question will finally be answered once and for all.
There it is! The most intelligent 1st post ever created.
Although the analogy of the consequences of using a, admittedly daft, word is a little over the top.
Just ask MediaSentry to look up the number of *nix distros flying around torrents. Then we'd have a good 30% market share.
My prediction would be:
Huh?: 50%
Word: 10%
Internet: 10%
Windows: 10%
No computer: 10%
Mac: 8%
Linux: 2%
There probably should be an option with ISPs in there, but I can't be bothered.
SIG: TAKE OFF EVERY 'CAPTAIN'!!
Man did this make me regress. Back when I was doing tech support and I had to ask what ISP people used I tended to get all kinds of wonderful answers.
Me: "I just need to ask you a few questions to better understand your problem"
Them: "Ok"
Me: "What internet service provider are you using?"
Them1: "Netscape"
Them2: "Internet Explorer"
Them3: "Windows?"
Them4: "I don't have one"
Everyone else: "AOL"
Me: "What operating system are you using"
Them1: "Dell"
Them2: "Netscape"
Them3: "AOL"
Them4: "I don't have one"
"I have great faith in fools: Self confidence my friends call it." ~Edgar Allan Poe
Now, every time I hear the word estimate, I assume that the number started from some actual data, rather than from someone's rectum.
Except for estimates of colonoscopy, I guess.
Of Code And Men
Not to forget: "Operating System? No wait, I'm not a surgeon."
I am the lawn!
The number is somewhere between 0 and 100%
This being the internet, I look forward to somebody disagreeing with me.
Seriously, how to you define desktop today?
On a typical day, when you sit down to surf the web, what operating system is your browser application running on top of? That's your desktop OS.
Linux holds a decent share of the POS/retail market. Are point of sale devices desktops?
No.
How about thin-clients? Some have a small Linux OS that RDP's to a Windows server. Is that a Linux or Windows desktop?
It's not a desktop.
I just finished a project where the thin clients were diskless and hosted totally on servers. Do I count the servers or the thin clients as desktops?
Neither.
At home I'm 80% Linux, 10% Mac and 10% Windows, but from the outside how am I counted.
As a nerd.
I prefer the term "swag". Scientific Wild Ass Guess.
I did a quantifiable survey. On my desk, I have two machines running Linux, one machine running Vista and one running XP.
2/4 machines are running Linux.
Therefore, Linux adoption is 50%.
(The margin of error for this survey is +/- 50%)
The Kai's Semi-Updated Website Thingy
Wikipedia is only an estimate of the real definition of the word.
"But this one goes to 11!"