Motion Control To Lengthen Console Hardware Cycles

With the recent E3 demonstrations of new motion-based control for consoles — Microsoft's Natal, Sony's Motion Controller, and Ubisoft's camera-based system for the Wii — analysts now expect the current console generation to last longer than normal. Microsoft exec Shane Kim said he expects the Xbox 360 to last until around 2015, in part due to Natal and new services available through Xbox Live. Signal Hill's Todd Greenwald thinks this cycle may not need to end at all: "Microsoft and Sony have invested so much in their current hardware line, as have third party publishers, that we don't think any party is seriously interested in throwing away these investments and starting over from scratch. For all of these reasons, we think this cycle will last longer than those in the past, and don't see new hardware coming until 2011 at the earliest, and 2012 to 2013 more likely (if at all — if new services like OnLive take off, or if Xbox Live and PlayStation Network become more and more robust, there may not be a need for another console cycle).'"

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Re:Blu-Ray...

[RedWizzard]

Yes they did.

However, was there not research showing that the attach rate (i.e. frequency of game buying) was very much lower for casual/Wii gamers? Making the Wii continue to pay might be difficult.

That's a myth.

From Wikipedia:

Best selling PS3 games:

1. Gran Turismo 5 Prologue (3.31 million)
2. MotorStorm (3.31 million)
3. Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (3 million shipped)

Xbox 360 games selling more than 3.31 million:

1. Halo 3 (8.1 million)
2. Gears of War (5 million, may include PC version)
3. Gears of War 2 (5 million)
4. Grand Theft Auto IV (4.074 million approximately)
5. Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (3.772 million approximately)
6. Call of Duty: World at War (3.35 million approximately)

Wii games selling more than 3.31 million:

1. Wii Sports (45.71 million)
2. Wii Play (22.98 million)
3. Wii Fit (18.22 million)
4. Mario Kart Wii (15.4 million)
5. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (8.43 million)
6. Super Mario Galaxy (8.02 million)
7. Mario Party 8 (6.72 million)
8. The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (4.52 million)
9. Link's Crossbow Training (3.76 million)
10. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (3.4 million)
11. Animal Crossing: City Folk (3.38 million)

So the Wii has 5 games that have sold more than any game on either the PS3 or the Xbox 360.

Looking at it another way, the top 10 PS3 games have sold a total of 21.4 million copies, the top 10 Xbox 360 games have sold a total of 29 million copies and the 10 Wii games have sold a total of 133 million copies. The consoles themselves have sold 21.3, 28, and 50 million copies each respectively. So for the Wii, excluding Wii Sports, that's 87 million top 10 games for 50 million consoles: 1.7 games per console. The other two consoles manage only 1 top 10 game per console.

In terms of total games, PS3 has sold 94 million and the Wii has sold 353 million. Not sure about the Xbox 360. So that's 4.4 games per PS3 and 7 games per Wii (6 excluding Wii Sports).

Clearly, the idea that the Wii has a lower "attach" rate is pure BS. It might have been true initially but now the attach rate is significantly higher for the Wii.