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US, Russia Reach Nuclear Arsenal Agreement

Peace Corps Library writes "The United States and Russia, seeking to move forward on one of the most significant arms control treaties since the end of the cold war, announced that they had reached a preliminary agreement on cutting each country's stockpiles of strategic nuclear weapons, effectively setting the stage for a successor to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (Start), a cold war-era pact that expires in December. Under the framework, negotiators are to be instructed to craft a treaty that would cut strategic warheads for each side to between 1,500 and 1,675, down from the limit of 2,200 slated to take effect in 2012 under the Treaty of Moscow (PDF) signed by President George W. Bush. The limit on delivery vehicles would be cut to between 500 and 1,100 from the 1,600 currently allowed under Start. Perhaps more important than the specific limits would be a revised and extended verification system that otherwise would expire with Start in December. The United States currently has 1,198 land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-based missiles and bombers, which together are capable of delivering 5,576 warheads, according to its most recent Start report in January, while Russia reported that it has 816 delivery vehicles capable of delivering 3,909 warheads. 'We have a mutual interest in protecting both of our populations from the kinds of danger that weapons proliferation is presenting today,' said President Obama."

64 of 413 comments (clear)

  1. Fallout by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    boooo, there goes my hopes of one day having a child that would roam the wastelands and be the savior of all humanity.

    1. Re:Fallout by Big+Hairy+Ian · · Score: 2, Funny

      Don't worry if they both keep cutting their arsenals like this they will just leave themselves at the mercy of China. BTW this child saviour of yours does he have a talking dog?

      --

      Build a Man a Fire, and He'll Be Warm for a Day. Set a Man on Fire, and He'll Be Warm for the Rest of His Life.

    2. Re:Fallout by kestasjk · · Score: 4, Interesting

      China is also reducing its arsenal, it's the trendy thing since the people like it and you can still keep enough weapons to destroy your enemies several times over.

      --
      // MD_Update(&m,buf,j);
    3. Re:Fallout by Shakrai · · Score: 2, Insightful

      China is also reducing its arsenal

      Citation needed. China has not been very open or forthcoming at all with regards to their weapons programs, nuclear or conventional. In fact they are currently in the process of building new ballistic missile submarines and deploying road mobile ICBMs. How is this compatible with "reducing" their arsenal?

      --
      I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
      We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
    4. Re:Fallout by kestasjk · · Score: 2, Informative

      The DOD table followed a fact sheet published by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs in April 2004, which stated: "Among the nuclear-weapon states, China...possesses the smallest nuclear arsenal." Since Britain has declared that it has less than 200 operationally available warheads, and the United States, Russia, and France have more, the Chinese statement could be interpreted to mean that Chinaâ(TM)s nuclear arsenal is smaller than Britainâ(TM)s.

      Link

      --
      // MD_Update(&m,buf,j);
    5. Re:Fallout by debrisslider · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The Chinese actually have a really smart nuclear policy: no first use. In a nuclear war, there are different kinds of targets: counterforce (sending warheads to blow up other warheads in an attempt to minimize retaliation) and countervalue (detonating warheads over strategic cities). The Chinese have never had the arsenal necessary to threaten a convincing first strike (the whole purpose of a first strike being to do enough damage to another nation's capacity to strike back that losses are kept to an 'acceptable' amount), but they have had just enough capability to threaten a significant counterstrike to the aggressor's cities. The whole point of submarine and mobile missiles is to maintain the ability to send a large enough retaliatory response if a nation implements a nuclear strike against them; Britain's entire nuclear arsenal is submarine-based so that it would be impossible to wipe out a strategically meaningful amount of their total capacity (submarines carry MIRV'd missiles, which are basically impossible to defend against with any modern antiballistic missile system). Having a hidden, unpredictable, mobile striking capacity is actually a good thing: it keeps everyone honest. While there's always the possibility of limited war, with such a small arsenal, there'd be no way to meaningfully survive a counterattack and hence no reason to initiate war, and similiarly, with a sub and truck based launch platform, there's no way to guarantee you'd be able to take out enough of their retaliatory capacity in a first strike.

      I can't speak to the buildup of their conventional capacity, but China's nuclear intentions are about as honest as you're going to get from a nuclear power.

    6. Re:Fallout by Dark_MadMax666 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Same exact thing could be said about US. just US organized crime is much more refined as they had time to cultivate from robber barons to CEOs. Russia "ruling elite" had to grind they teeth in mob wars just recently -in 1990s

    7. Re:Fallout by kestasjk · · Score: 2, Informative

      It does mean that if they didn't used to have the smallest arsenal, and that's a matter of public record. Citation needed, citation given. End of story.

      --
      // MD_Update(&m,buf,j);
    8. Re:Fallout by mjwx · · Score: 2, Insightful

      They are in the process of modernizing and expanding their arsenal. See the Type 94 submarines and road mobile DF-31 missiles for more information.

      This really doesn't prove anything. China is upgrading everything, their weapons tech is still behind that of Russia, let alone NATO. They still don't have a locally produced 4th generation fighter when Europe and the US have their 5th gen fighters flying and Russia's is nearing completion.

      are not being particularly forthcoming with their goals or intentions.

      Neither are NATO or Russia. You don't publicise military secrets, this is not an indication of bad intents or dreams of conquest.

      --
      Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
  2. Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by eldavojohn · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The indefinite combinations of human fallibility and nuclear weapons will lead to the destruction of nations. - Robert S. McNamara

    Slightly offtopic but in high school I read a few books by Robert S McNamara who died yesterday. It's too bad he didn't get to see this agreement between old enemies. He was Secretary of Defense from 1961-1968. Although I did not agree with a lot of his views he shaped a lot of the nuclear buildup during the cold war. I believe he was responsible for abandoning Eisenhower's policy of massive retaliation in the event of a nuclear war. He was first tasked by Kennedy of explaining nuclear fallout. McNamara favored non-nuclear power and one of the books I read "In Retrospect: The Tragedy and Lessons of Vietnam" shed a lot of light on the Vietnam war for me.

    If you haven't seen Erol Morris' "The Fog of War" you should.

    Rest in peace Robert Strange McNamara. You revealed to me the horrors that leadership must face during war.

    --
    My work here is dung.
    1. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by castironpigeon · · Score: 2, Insightful

      That's ok, the entire article is off topic for /. unless someone wants to argue that nuclear war would put an end to all modern technology and other nerdly pursuits so news about nuclear disarmament is nerd news. Meh

      --
      mmmm...forbidden donut
    2. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by readin · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Slightly offtopic but in high school I read a few books by Robert S McNamara who died yesterday [nytimes.com]. It's too bad he didn't get to see this agreement between old enemies

      Don't feel too bad. He did get to see the far more important breakthrough agreements negotiated and signed by Presidents Reagan and Bush 41.

      --
      I often don't like the choices people make, but I like the fact that people make choices. That's why I'm a conservative.
    3. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by FesterDaFelcher · · Score: 2, Informative

      It's too bad he didn't get to see this agreement between old enemies.

      Srlsy? It's not like this is the first such agreement.

      --
      My user number is prime. Is yours?
    4. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by MozeeToby · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I've really got to love our society. A more than slightly crazy musician and probable child molester dies and it's all the news can talk about for three weeks as people cry in the streets and memorial concerts are held all over the country. A man who was partially responsible for guiding the world through the cold war without destroying modern civilization dies and no one even knows who he is.

    5. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by bogjobber · · Score: 3, Insightful

      In case you did not know, the massive nuclear buildup by the US in the 1950's and 1960's was largely based on incomplete intelligence and a great deal of incompetence by the Eisenhower and (much less so) the Kennedy administrations. Although McNamara recognized that the US had a large advantage in both nuclear warheads and delivery systems, he still continued the massive buildup in nuclear weapons started by Eisenhower and pushed the idea of mutually assured destruction. It led to the greatest period of nuclear tension we ever had, and almost led us to nuclear war.

      In the 1950's the US thought the Soviets were greatly increasing their nuclear arsenal in order to gain first strike capabilities. This was false and not supported by strong intelligence, and many in the Eisenhower administration did not take proper precautions to ensure this was correct. The US initiated a period of nuclear proliferation that was understandably viewed by the Soviets as an attempt to gain first strike capability, and they quickly followed suit with their own nuclear buildup.

      Mr. McNamara did not abandon the idea of massive retaliation, he actually advanced it. He said himself said (paraphrasing) that it was pure luck that we did not end up in a nuclear war during the Cuban missile crisis. He also continued the ludicrous notion of the domino theory which led to the escalation of the Vietnam War under his command.

      Also, (taken from the NY Times book review of his autobiography) he realized relatively early in the Vietnam war that it could not be won by military force, but did not fight for his opinion and didn't take a public stance on that position until the 1990's. He and the Kennedy/Johnson/Nixon administrations destroyed the common trust and confidence in our government, which still has far-reaching consequences today. He oversaw one of the largest expansions of the US military in history, which can be directly traced to our ridiculous defense policy and budget today.

      Mr. McNamara was a brilliant man, but he is a symbol of how arrogance and loyalty to authority dragged our country to the brink of destruction. Combined with his (and the rest of the government's) mismanagement of the Vietnam War, Mr. McNamara is certainly not a politician that will be missed by me.

    6. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by eln · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Well, as the number of nuclear missiles is reduced, the number of times each country could completely destroy the other is likewise reduced. For example, if the US and Russia could utterly destroy each other 30 times over with their current arsenals, reducing those arsenals by half would mean they could only completely annihilate each other a pitiful 15 times. So, think of it as a mathematics exercise. That's kind of geeky, right?

    7. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by Shakrai · · Score: 2, Insightful

      A more than slightly crazy musician and probable child molester dies and it's all the news can talk about for three weeks as people cry in the streets and memorial concerts are held all over the country. A man who was partially responsible for guiding the world through the cold war without destroying modern civilization dies and no one even knows who he is.

      You forgot the part where the crazy probable child molester pushed the coverage of the struggle in Iran off the front pages.......

      Fourth estate indeed.

      --
      I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
      We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
    8. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by kaiser423 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      You don't think that one of the most technically advanced and mind-blowing weapons every created is geeky?

      Now this article might not be geek-a-riffic, but the fact remains that nuclear warheads, the science behind them, and all of the crazy software/hardware that goes into them is extremely geeky.

    9. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      When you say "partially responsible for guiding the world through the cold war without destroying modern civilization", are you referring to Billy Jean or Beat It?

    10. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by LWATCDR · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Okay.
      1. I am not and have never really been a fan of MJ but that fact that you must thrust him even into this shows you are part of the problem of which you speak. He is dead and I feel sorry for his family.
      2. McNamara sucked. No really he was a walking talking disaster area. The complete re writing of history around JFK drives me nuts. McNamara and JFK over saw the largest increase in the nuclear stock pile in history. He made no agreements involving arms control except the Nuclear Test Band Treaty which was a good thing I will give you.
      Eisenhower tried to talk the the USSR about weapons but the U2 over flight really killed it. Eisenhower was really trying to limit the growth in arms and for some reason people forget that Kennedy ran on "The Missile Gap" to show that the republicans where weak on defense.
      Then we have the Bay of Pigs disaster.
      And the Cuban Missile Crisis
      Then we have Vietnam.
      McNamara's strange ideas in weapons development. He thought that since Ford could make several different models from one car the military could make a Navy fighter and an Air Force bomber out of the same plane. That actually produced a good bomber for the Air Force even if it was more expensive and complex than it needed to be. The fighter got canned after a lot of money was poured into it.
      Over all I agree with the idea that in general is a stupid waste of effort. Every thing else is just as silly.

      --
      See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
  3. Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by fantomas · · Score: 4, Insightful

    BBC radio is reporting this will bring the USA and Russia down to owning a mere 95% of the world's nuclear weapons. Go USA! Go Russia!

    Seriously, good work both countries for making a step in the right direction. But keep going, you've got a long way to go before you can start preaching to countries with a dozen or nuclear weapons about the need for restraint.

    1. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by oneirophrenos · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Is there really that much difference in having a thousand or having a dozen? Could the country with a dozen warheads not fuck any other country beyond repair or redemption just as well as one with a thousand nukes?

    2. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 4, Insightful

      As one of the Rand Corporation's stone cold game theorists said, those would be "tragic, but distinguishable, outcomes".

      Nuclear weapons are powerful, extremely so by the standards of just about anything else(short of real sci-fi stuff, or fuel air bombs representing a week of the western world's refinery output); but they are hardly powerful enough that a dozen and a thousand are the same.

      Even if we overestimated and supposed that, for ease of calculation, a single nuclear strike could completely eliminate a city, all but the very smallest countries have substantially more than 12 cities, and a fair amount of hinterland. Not to mention the fact that unpleasant side effects like nuclear winter and social chaos, which would presumably do most of the killing after the first couple of days, would be far more severe with more warheads rather than fewer.

    3. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by A.+B3ttik · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I don't think a dozen nukes would cripple the US beyond repair... not by a long shot. It would be like a dozen hurricane Katrina's and the economy would go to shit but for the most part, the survivor's lives would still be better than 95% of the rest of the world's and we'd still be eating at restuarants and driving nice cars to work. it's not like we'd be roaming the wastelands eating Iguana-on-a-Stick or anything like that.

    4. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by A.+B3ttik · · Score: 4, Insightful

      But keep going, you've got a long way to go before you can start preaching to countries with a dozen or nuclear weapons about the need for restraint.

      I don't buy that. One madman with a nuke is worse than a peaceful leader with a thousand nukes.

      It's not our number of nukes that allows us to preach to Iran and N. Korea, it's the fact that our leaders are held to certain standards. Our presidents get in trouble for misspeaking or forgetting to bow or not dispensing enough foreign aid; the leaders of the aforementioned countries give speeches advocating genocide... to thunderous applause.

    5. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by dkleinsc · · Score: 4, Interesting

      As one of the Rand Corporation's stone cold game theorists said, those would be "tragic, but distinguishable, outcomes".

      General Turgidson: Mr. President, we are rapidly approaching a moment of truth both for ourselves as human beings and for the life of our nation. Now, truth is not always a pleasant thing. But it is necessary now to make a choice, to choose between two admittedly regrettable, but nevertheless *distinguishable*, postwar environments: one where you got 20 million people killed, and the other where you got a 150 million people killed.

      President Muffley: You're talking about mass murder, General, not war!

      General Turgidson: Mr. President, I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed. But I do say no more than 10 to 20 million killed, tops. Uh, depending on the breaks.

      --
      I am officially gone from /. Long live http://www.soylentnews.com/
    6. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 5, Interesting

      It is either amusing or disturbing; but that part of Dr. Strangelove is very nearly a string of quotations from actual military theorists. One Herman Kahn in particular.

    7. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "Our presidents get in trouble..."

      haha.
      good one.

    8. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Hatta · · Score: 3, Insightful

      One madman with a nuke is worse than a peaceful leader with a thousand nukes.

      One nuke in American hands justifies the arsenal of every madman out there. As long as America holds a single nuke, any dictator can point to it and argue that he has a sovereign right to self-defense against American aggression. Do as I say, not as I do never works. It's far more dangerous to have these things than to not have them. We need a clear, unambiguous policy that nukes are absolutely forbidden for every state with no double standards. Only then will anyone take disarmament seriously.

      --
      Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
    9. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 2, Informative

      I suspect it would be rather worse than a dozen Katrinas. Katrina's damage to the area's energy production and refining capacity was nontrivial; but much of it was back online fairly quickly. Most of the rest of the impact was either to the local economy(severe; but not really a broader issue) or psychological(most of those hardest hit have been treated as essentially expendable for years; but we usually didn't have to see it). The actual death toll was only a few thousand.

      Any nuclear strike on a decent sized city would, at a minimum, cause deaths in the range of a few hundred thousand, likely topping a million in the larger cities(particularly once you take things like the resultant fires into account). Furthermore, unlike a hurricane, nuclear strikes would presumably be deliberately aimed for maximally important targets, not just ones that happen to be on the wrong bit of coast at the wrong time. Major population and industrial centers would be essentially certain to make the list.

      It would be survivable(for some people), certainly; but it'd also be pretty damn grim.

    10. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by readin · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Madmen dictators are not 4-year-olds. They don't decide whether to build nukes based on their dad setting a good example for them. The calculate their self-interest and make their decision. Or they calculate whatever mad purpose they have (genocide against Israel) and make their decision. They don't think about the need to defend against American nukes because they know that the US refrains from using nukes except when attacked by nukes. Building nukes for themselves increases the risk of being a victim of a US nuke attack. The only kind of attack the dictator's nukes deter are conventional attacks - and that has nothing to do with the US already having nukes. The US abandoning nukes would make it even more attractive for smaller countries to build them. Right now, NK's nukes merely deter a conventional American attack. Remove American nukes and threats of nuclear retaliation, and suddenly NK's nukes give them the ability to extort anything they want from their defenseless neighbors. Americans and western Europeans need to give up their patronizing attitudes toward other countries. Those other countries aren't children who will imitate our adult ways like a child imitates his parents. Those other countries are ruled by adults who calculate their self-interests the way an adult does.

      --
      I often don't like the choices people make, but I like the fact that people make choices. That's why I'm a conservative.
    11. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by tpjunkie · · Score: 2, Insightful

      You are neglecting to factor in the damage caused by the over pressure wave created by the blast, as well as the radiative damage caused by the blast. The shockwave created by a moderately sized nuclear detonation will create an overpressure effect that can be incredibly damaging to structures not designed to withstand it; see Hiroshima, which had an area of near complete destruction a mile in radius, excepting a single concrete structure which can best be described as "bombed out." This was produced by a 20 kiloton bomb. Assuming more robustly built structures in a modern city, I would still suspect that a 10 megaton bomb, releasing 50 times more energy would be much more destructive than 200-300 meters. Secondly, radiative damage would be devastating, as that becomes an increasing factor with bomb strength. Nuclear weapons can release the equivalent amount energy as radiation as the actual explosion; in fact it is the X-ray pressure of the fission primary that is responsible for ignition of the fusion secondary in a hydrogen bomb. This means that for the bombs dropped on hiroshima and nagasaki, objects three miles from the blast site were severely burned or ignited from the thermal radiation of the blast. Again, extrapolating to a multi megaton device today results in a somewhat significantly larger burn radius, although this is constrained by the fact that the radiation travels in a direct line of sight and in a dense city, assuming a near ground level detonation this radiation will likely be absorbed well before dispersing to a "safe" level. Of course, with an air blast, the damage inflicted will be significantly higher, with the added bonus that much of the terrain directly below the blast will be heavily irradiated then sent airborne, dispersing fallout throughout the area.

    12. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by R2.0 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "We need a clear, unambiguous policy that alcohol is absolutely forbidden for every state with no double standards. Only then will anyone take Prohibition seriously."

      Or substitute marijuana, tobacco, fast food, etc.

      Cat's out of the bag, friend. Pretending that it's possible to simply ban nuclear weapons by fiat is catastrophically naive. Deal with the world as it is, not how you would pretend it to be.

      --
      "As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly." A. Carlson
    13. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Repossessed · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Um... the largest bomb ever built was 50-100 megatons. No bombs of that size were ever built in a deployable system (tsar bomba was too damned big to hit another country with it easily).

      You can destroy roads and railroads easily with conventional bombs (which are really good at taking out everything in a straight line when dropped en mass).

      At 1 megaton, you can destroy an office building 2.8 miles away reliably (the 10 PSI mark, few buildings will not stand up to 10 PSI of overpressure). Many building would be destroyed at 4 miles, and fires would be started as much as 7 miles away.

      The majority of nukes launched in a nuclear war would probably be aimed at other nuclear launch sites. Since survival is very dependent on getting the other guys nukes before they launch. (which is what nuclear armed submarines or the constant planes flying to Russia were about, no way to avoid getting destroyed with a first strike).

      --
      Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite (TM)
    14. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Cite some examples, I think most of your numbers are hog-wash and made up on the spot.

    15. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by vlm · · Score: 2, Informative

      Assuming more robustly built structures in a modern city, I would still suspect that a 10 megaton bomb, releasing 50 times more energy would be much more destructive than 200-300 meters.

      No, not really. Even at the most optimistic level, you need to take a cube root to go go between radius and volume... cube root of 50 is about 3.7. So, at the most optimistic, 50 times more volume of destruction equals about 3 something larger radius. Round down for improved building codes and improved technology. Round down for realistic blast effects (shading from bigger buildings, lots of the extra "power" just makes the fireball go upwards even faster).

      Secondly, radiative damage would be devastating, as that becomes an increasing factor with bomb strength.

      Nope, nada, zactly precisely totally the opposite effect. Check out the old book "effects of nuclear weapons" or the wikipedia entry. There used to be a palm pilot calculator that used the equations more than a decade ago on a little slide rule...

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_nuclear_explosions

      In summary, for the little bombs, its a mighty close tossup as to killed by blast, burns, or radiation, although radiation has a slight lead, so most folks will probably die of radiation exposure if a small bomb hits. But for big bombs, most folks die from the burns which are real bad if you were outside in visual range (slashdotters need not worry about that) or for that matter in a burnable building (Moms basement counts, unless all masonry and steel roof shingles and metal window blinds), if you're close enough to be seriously fried in the fire then the blast will probably get you anyway, finally radiation is so short ranged it won't kill you unless you were so close you were in the utterly "ground to dust" range (like, bank guard chilling in an empty, closed bank vault or similar during the blast).

      Or rephrased, for a small bomb its three virtual identical circles of destruction like earth vs its oceans and atmosphere kind of diagram, but for big bombs its a (relatively) tiny little radiation circle, surrounded by a big ole blast circle several times larger, surrounded by a modestly larger thermal circle, like saturn and some of its rings scale of diagram.

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    16. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Martin+Blank · · Score: 4, Interesting

      You are really underestimating the power of nuclear weapons, or you're using a different definition of complete destruction than everyone else. If by complete, you mean "vaporized," then you may be correct. However, according to this site, a one-megaton surface blast would leave a crater 200 feet deep and a thousand feet across, and everything within about 3200 feet of of the detonation would be gone except for some foundations. Out to 1.7 miles, only heavily reinforced building still have some remnants. Out to 2.7 miles, some multi-story buildings would still have their skeletons standing, and significant damage to structures would extend out to about 4.7 miles.

      This doesn't get anywhere close to the documented blast of Tsar Bomba, which was a 50MT bomb that had a 4.6km fireball, caused damage at significant distances (with atmospheric lensing causing damage hundreds of miles away), and would have caused third-degree burns to creatures 60 miles away. It was detonated on the island of Novaya Zemlya, and it broke windows in Finland and Sweden.

      I don't think that either nation could ever have blanketed the entire planetary surface with nuclear weapons; blast effects and areas just don't match up. But to suggest that nuclear weapons are little more effective than conventional weapons -- which is essentially what your post says -- is dead wrong.

      --
      You can never go home again... but I guess you can shop there.
    17. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by jackspenn · · Score: 2, Insightful

      you've got a long way to go before you can start preaching to countries with a dozen or nuclear weapons about the need for restraint.

      If we have little or no nukes left, why would the listen?

      I find it odd that people have a problem with the United States having weapons of mass destruction. Given that we have been in the Korean war, the Vietnam War, two Gulf wars and countless military operations without using them.

      The fact that we were willing to settle on a stalemate in Korea and actually lost Vietnam, yet had enough restraint to not use our arsenal demonstrates we have control and restraint (Hence we have earned the right to preach).

      The same cannot be said for North Korea (who does not have sufficient working nukes), yet has fired missiles and tested nukes whenever it wants something from the world (if only to be paid attention to) or Iran (which is not there yet) but has proclaimed they would use them as soon as they get them on Israel (Doesn't show much control, regard for life, regard for environment or understanding).

      Furthermore, a Republic or a Democracy is naturally more restrained or at least slower to act (if for no other reason then the required public debate cycles) then a dictatorship or oligarchy.

      --
      Respect the Constitution
    18. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by nojayuk · · Score: 2, Informative

      There are very few 1MT-plus nukes left in anyone's arsenal. Accurate aiming and the need to shrink the physical size of the weapons to provide MIRV capability in sub-based missiles and smaller silo-based launchers meant a move away from the older higher-yield devices. Typical maximum yield from the latest generation of weapons is about 500-600kT. The WE177 freefall bomb deployed by the RAF had a dial on the side that allowed the yield to be adjusted from about 200 to 500kTonnes.

      Radius of effectiveness at the target depends on how high up the bomb is triggered. Attacking hard targets such as docks, freeways and railheads (all built low to the ground of concrete and stone with few structral voids) requires a lower detonation point compared to destroying clusters of freestanding buildings. Going after buried structures such as command bunkers requires ground-burst or even earth-penetrator weapon designs.

      It is believed the Chinese have some megatonne-range weapons to compensate for their delivery systems probable error on target but the Big 4 (US, Russia, UK, France) all have accurate warhead deployment systems that have negated the need for high-yield weapons.

    19. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by icebrain · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Yeah, nuking a bunch of big cities will have an impact on human society--but on the grand environmental scale, it's not going to do very much. People have a misconception that setting off a mere handful of devices will somehow blanket the whole world in radioactive fallout and kill every living thing--and that's not the case by any means. Close to 1000 atmospheric tests took place before 1963, and we're all still around.

      --
      The meek may inherit the earth, but the strong shall take the stars.
    20. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by TheBracket · · Score: 4, Interesting

      (See The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, and also "The Pentomic Army" for sources on this)

      The 200-300m quoted distance is the "100% probability of kill" range, I believe. Double that range, and the probability halves.

      You also have to remember that Hiroshima was almost perfectly designed to be obliterated in a nuclear blast. The topography is that of a bowl, so overpressure actually wraps around rather than just releasing in an outwards pattern. Also, a lot of the buildings were made of very weak materials - residences had a lot of paper and wood, which a) burned really well, and b) did little to absorb the blast overpressure on the way through.
      Nagasaki actually fared quite a bit better, as have various test ranges around the world.

      In a modern concrete and steel city, the reflective/absorbitive properties of building materials considerably reduce the spread of blast overpressure on a lateral trajectory. Additionally, few cities are built inside a bowl (New Orleans excepted!) - so most of the time, the overpressure only hits you once.

      There really are only four lethal mechanisms that accompany a nuclear blast inside the atmosphere: prompt radiation, fireball, blast overpressure (and sometimes a secondary overpressure from air rushing in to fill the resultant vacuum), and residual radiation.

      Prompt radiation travels in a straight line, and is blocked quite effectively by earth, heavy metals and some types of clay. At larger distances, even curtains can help with the flash. If you are in direct line of sight to the flash, within lethal range - you are dead. If not, you're probably ok - and the radiation types released in the flash typically don't stick around.

      The fireball is typically not very large, but will incinerate whatever it comes into contact with. Most modern designs try to air-burst, and the fireball often won't ever touch the ground.

      Blast overpressure hits just like a conventional explosive: a sphere of rapidly moving blast pressure, reducing in power over distance, and also losing energy as it hits things. The same protections against prompt radiation help here: a good wall of dirt does wonders for stopping overpressure, whether it's from regular artillery or a nuclear explosion. Note that studies have shown that blast overpressure is the primary kill mechanism for regular nuclear bombs, just like any other bomb.

      Finally, you get residual radiation. This can be avoided almost completely with a carefully designed airburst - most "fallout" and residual radiation occurs when dirt is sucked into the fireball and irradiated there. Burst high enough to not have the fireball encompass a lot of dirt, and you don't have very much long-term radiation. It's largely unknown what the long-term effects of residual radiation are; the area around Chernobyl didn't behave at all like the models we had!

      Then there are different bomb designs to consider. A really small nuclear bomb behaves a lot like a really large conventional charge: you could set it off in a football stadium, and probably not worry too much about damage to buildings a few hundred yards away; man-portable nukes were designed on that assumption, as were things like the horribly-design Davey Crockett round.
      "Neutron bombs", which really should be called "reduced blast bombs" focus on enhancing prompt-radiation release at the expense of a MUCH smaller blast/fireball (and consequently very little residual radiation). Why would you want to do that? a) It greatly reduces long-term contamination of your target area (meaning you might get to go there!), but more importantly b) it's FAR more effective at taking out tanks and similar. Tanks are really, very, very good at withstanding blast overpressure (it's pretty much their primary defensive purpose - survive artillery and shells while they move forward). It's not at all practical to burst enough regular nuclear weapons to reliably take out a distributed, dug-in tank force. However, they are almost entirely made of metal - and prompt radiation does a "wonder

      --
      Lead developer, http://wisptools.net
    21. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 4, Interesting

      By the way, one thing you Westerners should keep in mind.

      In my school days in Russia (which were late 90s, far more liberal and pro-Western than it is today), we still studied things such as an effect of an urban nuclear explosion, complete with a diagram of the bombed city with affected areas, and a simulated aerial photo. We were taught how to behave to maximize the chances of survival during the initial blast, how to find proper shelters and secure them (and what kinds of shelters are good enough at various distances), and so on. I think that's still being taught.

    22. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by amorsen · · Score: 2, Informative

      They don't think about the need to defend against American nukes because they know that the US refrains from using nukes except when attacked by nukes.

      The US has a clear nuclear first-strike policy. Nuclear weapons (specifically bunker-busters) were definitely considered for both Afghanistan and Iraq, but they were (fortunately, IMHO) ultimately not used.

      --
      Finally! A year of moderation! Ready for 2019?
  4. Russia and the US have already done this before... by phoxix · · Score: 4, Informative
    Its called Nunn-Lugar/CTR.

    Basically the United States gave Russia a billion or so and tactical/technical/administrative support every year to reduce their weapons stock pile.

    So even when Bush and Putin had their panties bunched up, great work was being done cooperatively by both sides. The program considered pretty successful by government standards.

    I know, I know, the idea of good news from government is a scary one!

  5. Would any country ever give up ALL their nukes? by Trip6 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I think not! These weapons are with us for good.

    --
    I hate being bipolar; it's awesome!
  6. Really?!? by Comatose51 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    But John R. Bolton, who was ambassador to the United Nations under President George W. Bush, said Mr. Obama was going too far. "The number they are proposing for delivery vehicles is shockingly low," he said.

    Really? They're aiming for 500 launch vehicles. Are there even that many targets to nuke or does Bolton just want us to do it a few times over for the refried beans effect? Also, this is 500 launch vehicles and 1,500 warheads so I assume there are some MIRVs in there. I was under the impression that the whole defense aspect of nukes was to make retaliation too expensive for the other side to shoot first. If that's the case, 500 launch vehicles and 1,500 warheads would be enough to make anyone regret it. France, China, and the UK seem to be pretty secure with even less.

    --
    EvilCON - Made Famous by /.
    1. Re:Really?!? by YrWrstNtmr · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Also, this is 500 launch vehicles and 1,500 warheads so I assume there are some MIRVs in there.

      'Launch vehicles' also includes aircraft. B-1, B-2, B-52, and F-16. All of these can also be used with conventional munitions. So bringing down the total number of 'launch vehicles' to 500 will, of necessity, bring the numbers of these aircraft down to some very low, possibly unsustainable, number.

      I'd fully agree with bringing down the number of actual warheads. But when you include aircraft that can also be used for other functions, we may be getting into a place where the conventional forces are too small to do anything.
      The argument could be made that this is a good thing, but that's a discussion for another day.

    2. Re:Really?!? by YrWrstNtmr · · Score: 2, Informative

      Anyway, we still have aircraft delivered nuclear warheads, and the plane that can deliver a warhead doesn't count against the launch vehicles limit.

      Under START I & II, aircraft did count as launch vehicles. Verifiable destruction to include slicing the wings off B-52's, and leaving the carcass outside long enough to be photographed by a Russian satellite. Also, onsite inspections at various air bases and missile launch facilities on both sides.

  7. Keeping Count by DynaSoar · · Score: 4, Informative

    START requires only that the weapons be deactivated, not destroyed. The US currently has over 4,000 "deactivated" nuclear weapons. Believe someone who used to shove them up a Buff's (B-52) belly, they can be reactivated in short order.

    Also, START is 'Strategic' Arms Reduction Treaty. It says nothing about tacticals, either battlefield or ship based weapons, or EMP devices.

    --
    "I may be synthetic, but I'm not stupid." -- Bishop 341-B
  8. Getting rid of obsolete weapons by hessian · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Both sides are developing SDI/anti-missile defenses. This makes many of these weapons obsolete, as they no longer have a guaranteed first-strike capability.

    The old arms race was big missiles and bombers; the new arms race is drones and micro-cruise missiles.

    But it was a nice press opportunity for both men to come out smelling like roses while they quietly plan each other's destruction.

    1. Re:Getting rid of obsolete weapons by debrisslider · · Score: 2, Informative

      There's a huge difference between what Reagan wanted with SDI and what is technologically possible even today. Our current ABM programs are designed to shoot down single missiles, from rogue countries or an accidental Russian/Chinese launch. They are in no way feasible for stopping any sort of full-on attack or retaliation. As a strategic weapon, ICMBs and submarine-launched ballistic missiles are FAR from obsolete. Drones and micro-cruise missiles are TACTICAL weapons; you're not going to fight a full nuclear conflict with them.

      I will grant that the idea of a full-scale nuclear assault is an obsolete idea, and nuclear missiles are obsolete in the sense that they will never be used as part of any realistic military objective, and maintaining massive quantities at a moment's notice is a wasteful relic of a reality over two decades past.

  9. The inevitable tiring from the indefensible by NZheretic · · Score: 2, Informative

    We have been told that because others in the West - and their advocates are here tonight - carry the fearful burden of a defence which terrorises as much as the threat it counters, we too must carry that burden. We are actually told that New Zealanders cannot decide for themselves how to defend New Zealand, but are obliged to adopt the methods which others use to defend themselves.

    Lord Carrington [the Secretary-General of NATO] made a case in Copenhagen recently against the creation of nuclear weapon free zones. He argued that if the people of the United States - as advocated by my friend over there - found themselves bearing the burden alone, they would tire of bearing it. Now that is exactly the point. Genuine agreement[s] about the control of nuclear weapons do not cede the advantage to one side or the other: they enhance security, they do not diminish it. And if such arrangements can be made, and such agreements reached, then those who remain outside those arrangements might well and truly tire of their insecurity. They will reject the logic of the weapon and they will assert their essential humanity. They will look for arms control agreements which are real and verifiable.

    DAVID LANGE, Oxford Union debate, 1985

  10. Quick agreements are often bad agreements. by reporter · · Score: 2, Interesting
    Please read the essay titled "Arms Control Amnesia" and published by the "Wall Street Journal".

    A member of the bipartisan Congressional Strategic Posture Commission -- headed by former secretaries of defense William J. Perry and James R. Schlesinger -- warns that the preliminary agreement signed by Barack Obama guts part of the American nuclear arsenal but does not demand significant gutting of the Russian nuclear arsenal. Two points of serious note are (1) nuclear launchers and (2) tactical nuclear weapons.

    Nuclear launchers are mechanisms for launching the intercontinental ballistic missiles. The Russians are demanding that we Americans reduce the number of our launchers to 500, but the Russians were already (before the signing of this agreement) planning to reduce the number of launchers to close that number because they cannot afford to replace the launchers that must be shutdown due to reaching the end of their operational life. In other words, the Russians do not make any sacrifice on this matter but demand that the Americans make all the sacrifices.

    As for tactical nuclear weapons, the Russians successfully insisted that these weapons be removed from coverage in this preliminary agreement. The Russians have a 10-to-1 advantage over us Americans in tactical nuclear weapons.

  11. Didn't we learn ANYTHING from the 80's? by Alzheimers · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The only winning move is not to play

    How about a nice game of chess?

  12. Re:Anyone know by gmack · · Score: 2, Informative

    I'm blown away that this entirely inaccurate screed got modded informative.

    Said President's term wasn't up until January and as much as he wanted to extend his term limit he wasn't likely to succeed. It also wasn't likely that had he succeeded in extending his term limit he would have been reelected anyhow since his approval ratings were at an all time low.

    I also need to point out that an ally of Chavez he wasn't an American ally by any stretch of the imagination.

    Proper democracies work by voting lame duck leaders out at the end of the term so what happened was a military coup. Obama speaking out against a military coup was, in fact, arguing in favor of the rule of law not against it.

  13. Re:Anyone know by Ill_Omen · · Score: 3, Informative

    Let's get some facts straight here...

    The Honduran President's term was not up. It's not up until January. He was trying to organize a vote on a constitutional referendum to allow him to run for a second term, which would likely have failed anyway. Yes, he was doing something illegal. But so was Nixon, and I don't remember the army ousting him.

    To single out President Obama for his condemning of the coup is pretty disingenuous, considering pretty much every country in the region, and the UN, said the same thing.

  14. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by MightyYar · · Score: 4, Informative

    It isn't governments job to "pull them out of their bad position" its their own individual job.

    No, but it is the government's job to stop the majority from actively keeping them in a bad position. Jim Crowe was only a few years ago.

    but this is 2009 not 1950

    Try the late 60s, which weren't so long ago. Many people who still hold a lot of sway were either part of the problem or are directly descended from those people. I'm white and I hear what other whites aren't afraid to say about blacks when there aren't any blacks around. To imply that racism is dead among whites is very disingenuous.

    Asians make more on average than whites, shouldn't whites get special treatment now?

    No. Asians tend to make more in the US because they tend to come here as well-educated people who bear well-educated children. This is not an injustice, just a statistical anomaly, and a direct result of our immigration policy. Visit Asia sometime if you think that Asians can't be poor and ignorant. Blacks come from a history of being ACTIVELY held down, and it's going to be a while before this nation recovers from that. Having blacks in powerful positions helps their cause, and they know that and vote accordingly.

    --
    W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
  15. For more about NonProliferation by twmcneil · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I can recommend the book Epicenter of Peace by Nursultan Nazarbayev, President of Kazakhstan. While Nazarbayev is not very well liked in certain circles for other reasons, the book is an interesting story of why he decided to lead Kazakhstan to denuclearization.

    One of the many things I learned from this book was the difference between nonproliferation and denuclearization. Kazakhstan didn't simply agree to store away the warheads like the U.S. and Russia have agreed to do, they dismantled them and shipped them entirely out of the country (basically to Russia and the U.S.). Then they dismantled the accompanying infrastructure, reseach facilities, education facilities, etc so that hopefully, nuclear arms would never again be deployed in Kazakhstan.

    It's an interesting story.

    --
    "The ferrets, they're every where I tell you!"
  16. Question! by hesaigo999ca · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Would they be able to use up the dismantled nuclear materials to make another reactor with without having to pay for mining of the stuff...(plutonium, uranium, etc..), or is the materials wasted in the making of the warhead to begin with?

  17. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by Hognoxious · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Blacks come from a history of being ACTIVELY held down, and it's going to be a while before this nation recovers from that.

    Is there a white equivalent of the NAACP? Is there a Caucasian College Fund?

    At a certain point, the effects of ancient history have dwindled to nothing. I'd say that point is already past.

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  18. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by MightyYar · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Is there a white equivalent of the NAACP?

    No, why would there be? Was there a white equivalent of slavery in the US?

    Our histories are parallel and intertwined, but not equal. Without injustice, the NAACP would not be necessary. The NAACP was started in the early 1900s, when blacks often couldn't vote or stay in the same hotel or use the same drinking fountain. The NAACP is a demonstration of exactly what I'm talking about - we still haven't healed.

    Face it - in the US it is still a tremendous advantage to be a white man.

    At a certain point, the effects of ancient history have dwindled to nothing. I'd say that point is already past.

    The numbers disagree with you. Blacks are still disadvantaged. If you, as a white guy, don't see racism on a day-to-day basis then I'd say you aren't paying much attention, or you are very lucky and live in a place which I would love to move to.

    --
    W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
  19. Re:Comes up a little short by debrisslider · · Score: 2, Informative

    It depends on what kind of 'solution' you are interested in. The U.S. already has an anti-ballistic missile system designed to stop small-scale launches (a single missile from North Korea, an accidental launch of a Russian or Chinese missile). However, there is no technology that would work in a larger-scale conflict. Nuclear weapons and delivery methods are simply too effective. As has been said many times, hitting a missile out of the air is like hitting a bullet with a bullet, only harder. Technology isn't a quick or easy fix, you have to stop it at the source - it's easier to prevent someone firing a gun than stopping the bullet once it's launched.

    A modern ICBM is very hard to track; it only burns fuel for about 5 minutes, then continues to ascend for 20 minutes, reaching a height of over 1000 kilometers. A MIRVed missile will then break apart into (up to) eight separate warheads, as well as releasing chaff, reflective balloons, and decoy warheads. These warheads then fall to Earth at 4 km/s in less than two minutes, in a variable pattern (something like this ). That is a little under 30 minutes to see the launch, determine the ballistic course, and launch enough missiles from hundreds of miles away to attempt to intercept hundreds of real warheads amongst the greater amount of decoys and penetration aids. Oh, and some warheads can be set to detonate in the atmosphere to create an EMP effect, throwing off radar and other tracking systems. Radar and ABM sites will also be among the first targets. We have a hard enough time shooting down slow-moving single targets (the military has effective tactical anti-missile technology such as the Patriot and AEGIS, but there are orders of magnitude of difference between tactical missiles and ICBMs), but the very idea of a strategic nuclear defense is laughable. We've spent hundreds of billions of dollars on a system that we hope can take out a rogue missile or two.

  20. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by sumdumass · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Actually, most of the slavery was carried out by the Africans. In fact, Africa is the only continent that still has legal slavery to this day. And the so called Anglo Saxons consisted or Portuguese ans Spanish who purchased the slaves from African tribes and sold them to settlements under the British crown.

    As for reparations, they have already been paid in both the loss of life in gaining the freedoms of the slaves and in the welfare and housing benefits given to minorities and the special treatment they got starting with the civil rights legislation of 1964. Every descendant of a slave has had the opportunity to be more then anything that the slavery took away. Even if you attach the Jim crow laws that were around as late as the early 1960, this means that almost every distressed minority is at least 1 generation out if not 2 or more. There is no need for a cash payment or anything because the people who were harmed and their families directly effected are no longer alive.

  21. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by DigiShaman · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Blacks come from a history of being ACTIVELY held down

    That USED to be the case, but not anymore. Today, the actively hold each other down as they accept government hand-outs and cling on to a state of "victimization". Simply put, it's a culture thing. Not race.

    It's the truth. Just look at the numbers. Per 2007 data, Whites make up 80% of the population while blacks make up 12.8%. However, American Indians only make up 1% while Hispanic make up 15%. This is important to point out for the simple fact that three of the four races I mentioned do *not* bitch about their situation even the slightest when put in comparison.

    While I really do feel bad how blacks were treated in America's history, they no longer have any excuse to be clinging on to victimhood in this day and age.

    --
    Life is not for the lazy.