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NTSB Says a Downdraft Killed Steve Fossett

Posted by kdawson on from the windy-up-here dept.

jd writes "The National Transportation Safety Board has now released the text of its examination (full narrative available) into the crash of Steve Fossett's aircraft on Sept 3rd, 2007. It concludes that downdrafts were the likely cause of the crash, dragging the plane into the mountain with such force that, even at full power, it would have been impossible to escape the collision. Pilots experienced in the area report that those winds can rip the wings off aircraft; and Mark Twain remarked that they could roll up a tin house 'like sheet music.' One must wonder why such a skilled aviator was taking a gamble with such hostile conditions, given that he was looking for a flat stretch of land to race cars on, but that is one mystery we shall probably never know the answer to."

27 of 101 comments (clear)

  1. One must wonder ... by qoncept · · Score: 4, Interesting

    One must wonder ...

    ...how pilots experienced in the area and are still alive know that these downdrafts can rip the wings off an airplane?

    --
    Whale
    1. Re:One must wonder ... by Sir_Lewk · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Perhaps they've seen wreckage where it was evident that's what happened.

      --
      "linux is just DOS with a UNIX like syntax" -- Galactic Dominator (944134)
    2. Re:One must wonder ... by qoncept · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Then maybe instead of "pilots experienced in the area," it should have said "pilots who have seen wreckage."

      --
      Whale
    3. Re:One must wonder ... by maxume · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Are those two things mutually exclusive?

      Perhaps experienced pilots in the area, who have seen such wreckage, choose not to fly when the weather indicates such winds are likely.

      --
      Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
    4. Re:One must wonder ... by vertinox · · Score: 4, Funny

      ...how pilots experienced in the area and are still alive know that these downdrafts can rip the wings off an airplane?

      Experienced pilots experienced the phenomena by experiencing the event from a safe distance because they were experienced.

      --
      "I am the king of the Romans, and am superior to rules of grammar!"
      -Sigismund, Holy Roman Emperor (1368-1437)
    5. Re:One must wonder ... by DoofusOfDeath · · Score: 5, Funny

      One must wonder ...

      ...how pilots experienced in the area and are still alive know that these downdrafts can rip the wings off an airplane?

      Yes, it's odd. Almost as though they can somehow communicate amongst themselves or even read NTSB reports.

      Yes... this definitely is something we need to understand better.

    6. Re:One must wonder ... by tnk1 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Experience could certainly mean that they have flown the area and frequented places where fellow pilots who know about incidents congregate. They may have also experienced lesser effects of this phenomenon personally and then read about reports of similar incidents which match their (not as extreme) experience.

      I am an experienced system administrator for large numbers of high-end systems. This means I know about all sorts of threats to my hosts, active and historical, because I am experienced and have had to explore the possibility of intrusions and read studies of those that went too far. That is a function of my experience that you would have trouble obtaining without time in front of the keyboard, if only because you'd usually have no interest in such things if you never had to deal with the real possibility of them happening to you. I have never experienced an intrusion personally, but my experience is why I would know about them.

      While it is not "first-hand" experience, these mountain conditions are something that an "experienced" pilot would know about because it is their best interests to know about it... or they may die. That is why it is interesting that Mr. Fossett, who we all know is experienced, seemed to be either ignorant of these conditions, didn't care, or something else happened. This would seem to be pretty basic stuff for general aviation flyers to know, so we would be allowed to wonder what happened.

    7. Re:One must wonder ... by timeOday · · Score: 2, Insightful
      But Fossett was about as experienced as they get.

      Stuff happens, at least he lived a very full life.

    8. Re:One must wonder ... by JWSmythe · · Score: 4, Informative

          In searching for Fossett, they found numerous unreported or otherwise undocumented crashed planes. More than likely, any aviator who said that they "knew" it could happen were witnesses to another plane crashing, helped with the search and rescue of a fellow aviator, or simply accounted for the forces and the strength of small aircraft.

          I had discussed this with some people who are very experienced aviators, and they all came to the same conclusion. It was most likely wind that brought him down. The second guess would be a mechanical failure and attempted crash landing. They ranked the second one way behind the first.

          If I read the NTSB review correctly, his altimeter was reading above the mountain peaks, but adjusted for current temp and pressure that would put him a bit lower than them, which should have been ok. They lost radar contact with him approx 1km from the crash site. In that time, he went about 1km (obviously) and a dropped a few thousand feet.

          The report does state that the entire plane was present at the accident site. Well, except for the burnt off parts. They indicate the wingtip lights were present, which would imply the wing came down with the plane. If they had broken off, they would have likely been found at a different location.

          I'm sure he did everything he could. Sometimes that's just not enough, even for people who are really good. :(

      --
      Serious? Seriousness is well above my pay grade.
  2. With due respect by mewsenews · · Score: 2, Insightful

    To Mr. Fossett,

    "The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next."
      -- Ursula K. LeGuin

  3. NTSB is wrong by Em+Emalb · · Score: 5, Funny

    Sudden deceleration is what killed him.

    --
    Sent from your iPad.
  4. Great Mystery - Probably not by travdaddy · · Score: 2, Insightful

    One must wonder why such a skilled aviator was taking a gamble with such hostile conditions, given that he was looking for a flat stretch of land to race cars on, but that is one mystery we shall probably never know the answer to."

    Even if we did know the answer, I doubt it would be very interesting. It's probably a little of Steve being an adrenaline junkie mixed with underestimating the danger.

    --
    Adidas To Bring Back Sneakernet
  5. Um, obvious speculation? by Chris+Burke · · Score: 4, Insightful

    One must wonder why such a skilled aviator was taking a gamble with such hostile conditions, given that he was looking for a flat stretch of land to race cars on, but that is one mystery we shall probably never know the answer to.

    I wondered, but in about a second I came up with this: An adventurer and thrill-seeker, in the course of looking for a place for future thrill-seeking, decided to seek some thrills?

    Sure it's just idle speculation... but based on what little I know of the man, taking gambles with danger while tooling around alone in his private plane sounds exactly like something he would do. It makes enough sense for me, at least.

    --

    The enemies of Democracy are
    1. Re:Um, obvious speculation? by Lil'wombat · · Score: 3, Interesting

      There are BOLD pilots
      There are OLD pilots

      But there are no OLD BOLD pilots

      --

      Truth: If it's not one thing, it's another

  6. Can a Slashdot pilot tell us . . . by PolygamousRanchKid+ · · Score: 2, Interesting

    When you register your flight, does the FAA (or whoever) give warnings about dangerous areas?

    During your flight does the ATC tell you, "Be careful, you are about to enter a dangerous area?"

    I guess what I want to know, is if he had a chance to know what the local pilots knew.

    --
    Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
    1. Re:Can a Slashdot pilot tell us . . . by ubergamer1337 · · Score: 2, Informative

      If your flying "general aviation" (private flying, non-commercial), then the answer is no. Once your in the air, the ATC doesn't talk with you. General Aviation does its own thing once their airborne. General Aviation pilots just have to stay out of restricted airspace that is used for commerical, controlled-by-ATC flights. As to filing a flight path, I'm not sure whether General Aviation has to do that or not, but I am pretty sure the FAA wouldn't give them a warning based on what they filed. It's up to the pilots to make sure the area they are going to be flying in is safe, not anyone else.

    2. Re:Can a Slashdot pilot tell us . . . by ColdWetDog · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Your basically correct. This page has a nice brief explanation. Even if Fosset were flying IFR (Instrument Flight Rules), where the pilot would file a flight plan, it's not clear that a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) (sexist assumption noted) would mention winds over the Sierra Nevada. Now, one of the pilots the investigators talked to who had flown over the general area that day said the weather was "weird". Perhaps, if enough pilots had mentioned some unusual conditions, the local controllers might have issued a NOTAM, but this is pretty much in the middle of nowhere so it may not have attracted much attention.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    3. Re:Can a Slashdot pilot tell us . . . by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 3, Funny

      Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) (sexist assumption noted)

      (illiterate lesbian noted)

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    4. Re:Can a Slashdot pilot tell us . . . by CompMD · · Score: 2, Insightful

      He should have known about the possibility for dangerous winds given the area. He was probably flying VFR, instead of having filed an IFR flight plan, which is part of the reason it took so long to find him. He should have called a weather briefer before taking off to get the weather conditions and forecast for his trip. In flight he could have contacted FlightWatch for more up-to-date weather in case he noticed things were changing.

      Keep in mind that rarely does a single event cause an airplane crash. It is quite often a series events culminating in a situation in which the pilot has no chance to save himself.

    5. Re:Can a Slashdot pilot tell us . . . by rand.srand() · · Score: 2, Informative

      Any pilot can call for a weather briefing prior to a flight, but most don't. For most private traffic, the pilot never talks to anyone other than the other pilots in the area advising what they are up to... and technically don't have to do that even if the airport doesn't have a control tower (most don't).

      It is extremely unlikely that the weather briefer or ATC would inform pilots of mountain phenomena because it's like warning pilots that bright blue light shines from every possible direction when not obscured by clouds. It's just a given.

      There are basics about mountain flying you are taught regardless of where you learn, and any west coast pilot has to deal with these realities if they go anywhere inside of the coast. I've fought off 400 ft/min downdrafts on flat land 800 miles from a mountain.

      Fossett would have known very well about mountain waves. He would not have continued towards the peak of the mountain if he was sinking. The probable cause report doesn't really inform us of anything more valuable than "the sky is blue".

    6. Re:Can a Slashdot pilot tell us . . . by superdana · · Score: 2, Interesting

      This is a curious description of how aviation works in the U.S. While it's certainly possible for GA flights to "do their own thing" if they stay out of any airspace more restrictive than Class E, this is by no means representative of GA as a whole. A Cessna flying under instrument rules will be in constant contact with ATC. Even if you're just flying under visual rules, you have to get landing and takeoff clearances at controlled airports, you need a clearance to enter Class B airspace, and you need permission to transition through Classes C and D. Outside of controlled airspace, a pilot flying under visual rules can voluntarily request radar advisories. And at the extreme end, corporate and charter jets are considered GA too, and they fly in Class A airspace every day.

      But to answer the original question, you're not required to file a flight plan if you're flying under visual rules. If you choose to file, the FAA isn't required to give you a weather briefing at that time, but most pilots ask for one.

  7. Mountain Wave Action by Nobo · · Score: 5, Informative

    The proper term for what they're describing is a mountain wave or wave action. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_wave contains a good description of the effect.

    Mountain waves can be felt in small piston powered aircraft even flying significantly above the tops of the mountains, even several thousand feet above the peaks on either side of the valley you're crossing.

    If you're holding altitude, you see that you speed up when you're crossing falling terrain and slow down when you're crossing rising terrain -- because as you cross the rising terrain, you're in the downdraft and so to maintain altitude, your airplane "feels" like it has to climb to stay at the same altitude in the falling air. Climbing requires additional power over simple cruise flight, or you slow down.

    I've seen airspeed of an aircraft that should cruise at 150 knots, range from 90-180 knots, depending on whether you're on the uphill or downhill side of the wave. In severe conditions, you just cant' maintain altitude without slowing down too much, and you have to vary altitude to ride the waves.

    It can be a scary experience knowing you don't have enough power to out-climb the wave -- That's the reason that you typically fly significantly higher in the mountains, even with good visibility -- You're not worried about hitting the mountains because you can't see them, you're worried about getting sucked by these waves and not having enough altitude to ride them out.

    1. Re:Mountain Wave Action by smellsofbikes · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Mountain flying is technically challenging -- as challenging for an experienced pilot, as just flying is for a person who doesn't know how to fly. There are a lot of things you do when you train in mountain flying to minimize your risk, but if you're in a small piston-engined plane, there are a lot of places where you just don' t know what the best plan is, so you have to make a quick decision and hope you were right.
      First off: fly down valleys, not up them. That's not always possible, though: you sort of have to fly up one valley to go over the pass and fly down the next. Another is you don't fly up the middle of a valley. You fly up one side, so that you have room to make a quick turn if you find that you're in a narrow bit of the valley and you need to get out. But here's the tradeoff: there are sometimes strong upslope/downslope winds along the valley sides, so by preserving your ability to turn, you might run into an intense downdraft. (Generally, winds are faster, the higher you go, but in valley conditions, downslope winds known as foehn or scirroco winds tend to be intense right around the valley itself, particularly if you're flying up an old glacial valley with hanging valleys intersecting it: there are these big cold air currents flowing down them just like water would and pouring down into the main valley.)
      Likewise, once you're in a downdraft you have to make some hard decisions. You pull the nose up to best angle of climb, full power, and you hold it. What if you're aiming right towards a big rock? If you turn, your stall speed increases, and you're already fairly close to stall speed, so you have to weigh reducing your angle of climb (which in a microburst or downdraft means increasing your speed towards the ground) to make the turn, vs. trying to ride out your current heading and hoping you'll miss that big object. You don't know, a priori, which one is going to work. Maybe you'll break out of the downdraft. Maybe it's worse over there where you're about to turn. That's where skill, experience, and lots and lots of luck come into play.
      Where I live, sometimes the clouds from the mountain waves are visible in long rows at over 25,000 feet elevation, in lines for a hundred miles downwind of the mountains themselves, and every one of those is strong enough to shake a plane like a ragdoll. A B-52 bomber had its vertical tail ripped off and lost part of a wing in clear air turbulence 5000 feet above the nearest mountain.

      --
      Nostalgia's not what it used to be.
  8. Re:SO uh, when did Mark Twain have a plane? by JaneTheIgnorantSlut · · Score: 5, Funny

    Just thought I'd ask.. me thinks Mark Twain died before the aircraft age.

    Reports of his death were greatly exaggerated.

  9. Re:Its lovely in the Sierra Nevadas by osu-neko · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Yeah... I find the attitude of "why would he be flying there?" as if it were some great mystery why someone would want to fly in the area kinda baffling. More baffling to me would be why anyone would avoid flying through the area given an opportunity to. The answer to that, of course, is because it creates dangerous flying conditions, but Fosset was an experienced pilot. If he figured he could do it and live, it would make sense that he would, even if it was a slight detour from his eventual planned destination. Alas, luck was not with him, and on that particular day, the presumption that he could do it and live turned out to be wrong... :(

    --
    "Convictions are more dangerous enemies of truth than lies."
  10. Every pilot in California and Nevada knows by wsanders · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I used to fly out of the Bay Area, and the club I flew with specifically prohibited us from flying over the Sierra without supplemental training. Every pilot in California and Nevada is usually trained of the danger, not to cross the Sierra without several thousand fleet of ground clearance.

    And when I took hang gliding lessons, there were many many stories of pilots who tried to fly the huge lift coming off the eastern slope, only to return to earth under a parachute with pieces of their broken gliders falling all around them.

    Mountain flying can be tricky - one of my flight instructors was killed several years ago in the Rockies, flew into the end of a canyon. He was not a risk taker, and had been regularly flying between the Bay Area and Lake Tahoe for many years,

    --
    Give a man a fish and you have fed him for today. Teach a man to fish, and he'll say "WHERE'S MY FISH, YOU IDIOT?"
  11. Re:Insulting summary by AB3A · · Score: 4, Informative

    To someone who isn't an experienced pilot, it isn't obvious. But you should know that it is a significant part of the training for all private pilots.

    I've been licensed for more than 20 years as a private pilot. I've taken mountain flying instruction. I've flown around and over the Rocky Mountains. This hazard is a simple issue of flight planning.

    I know exactly what performance my aircraft is capable of, as should every pilot who sits in the left seat. I read reports of the winds aloft. I set personal minimums for what I'm willing to fly in. I know, for example, that if the winds aloft at 3000' are approaching 30 knots, that I can expect significant turbulence and down-drafts from the Appalachian mountain chain for up to 100 miles East. I might fly in those conditions if I'm going Eastward. However, if the winds aloft are 35 knots or greater at 3000, I know I'm staying on the ground.

    It's not that I can't handle those situations; I can and I have. My goal is to have a reserve in case the forecast is wrong. I've seen blown forecasts more times than I care to think about.

    Steve Fossett had a momentary lapse of judgment. It happens to the best of us. Every year, people crash while flying around mountains and canyons from exactly the same damned thing that bit him. There is little room for error when flying in the mountains. Each flight should include a careful evaluation of local and regional weather conditions, terrain, and aircraft performance. Yeah, there are people who launch in to the blue without checking this stuff. Most of the time, they survive without incident.

    Those who don't do adequate flight planning in this terrain are accidents waiting to happen.

    --
    Nearly fifty percent of all graduates come from the bottom half of the class!