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A Mathematical Model For a Spreading Zombie Infestation

cloude-pottier writes "What do you do when zombies attack? Turn to a mathematician to come up with a model for the spread of a zombie infestation, of course! Students at Carleton University and the University of Ottawa have published a paper in a book titled Infectious Disease Modelling Research Progress detailing how to model the spread of a zombie population and various complications in managing the spread of the infestation. They even give humans a fighting chance in some cases! The original paper (PDF) can be found at their professor's website."

24 of 121 comments (clear)

  1. Been done by computer scientists already by The_mad_linguist · · Score: 4, Informative
    1. Re:Been done by computer scientists already by HidingMyName · · Score: 2

      Perhaps the parent comment should have been rated funny, the zombie simulator at kevan.org is a model of a city where humans are getting infected. However, the work by Kephart and White is prior art which wasn't cited. However, the models used in this paper are pretty standard fare for population dynamics and epidemiological modeling, and use the classical simplifying modeling by treating the population as continuous (i.e. they aren't using a discrete individual based modeling approach). Additionally, these are homogeneous mixing models (every host can reach every other host with equal intensity). I'll need to look closer, they did ask an interesting question about how to model a system where some of the infected machines are repaired, I'm not sure that this is truly novel (Bilogists have Susceptible Infective, Susceptible Infective Removed models and Susceptible Infective Removed Susceptible models) so this may be old hat.

  2. Sick of zombies by lyinhart · · Score: 5, Funny

    I am officially sick of the concept of zombies. Yes, they used to be cool and frightening, but nowadays, they're everywhere. In video games (Left 4 Dead, Dead Rising, Plants vs. Zombies (what the heck?), etc.), lots of movies (movies about Nazi zombies, Woody Harrelson versus zombies, even another Romero movie), comics books (Marvel Zombies), and even classic literature (Pride and Prejudice and Zombies?). Now they're in math too?

    It's time that someone called for a moratorium (no pun intended) on zombies in the media.

    --
    Freedom is drinking a beer in the park when you're supposed to be at work.
    1. Re:Sick of zombies by digitalunity · · Score: 2, Insightful

      But its on digg, and therefore Slashdot is required to post it...

      Maybe I'm trolling here, but it seems like a voluminous number of articles these days are already on diggs front page. Not sure whats so hard about finding new and interesting things to post.

      --
      You can't legislate goodness. Let each to his own destiny, by will of his freely made choices.
    2. Re:Sick of zombies by FlyingSquidStudios · · Score: 5, Funny

      You're just jealous because none of them think your brain is worthy of eating.

    3. Re:Sick of zombies by Lord+Kano · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Outside of entertainment, Zombies are a metaphor for social unrest. When I was house shopping, my girlfriend asked me what criteria I was using to evaluate properties. I explained that there was price, location, condition, number of bedrooms, yard space, parking, garage space, and defensibility in the event of a zombie holocaust. She thought that I was joking with that last one. Then I explained that I wasn't talking about movie zombies. I was talking about small to medium sized groups of attackers in the event of widespread social unrest. If the economy goes south and we have people robbing and looting, how well can I defend this property? The house that I eventually chose wasn't the highest on the zombie defense mark, but it was in the top third.

      LK

      --
      "Hi. This is my friend, Jack Shit, and you don't know him." - Lord Kano
    4. Re:Sick of zombies by Hellhog · · Score: 2

      If I had mod points, I'd be giving them. Amen to everything you said. Zombies are abso-fucking-lutely played the hell OUT. Sadly, it seems we're going to be back on overusing vampires very soon. This stuff's cyclical, you know.

      --
      Your sig sucks and so does mine. Now watch my videos.
    5. Re:Sick of zombies by vantar · · Score: 2

      That's because the democrats are in power.

      Yeah uh.. this has what to do with anything?

      There is a frequently referenced correlation between the political party in power and the popularity of vampires or zombies. Source:

    6. Re:Sick of zombies by mOdQuArK! · · Score: 2

      I refuse to accept anything that "sparkles" in sunlight as a true vampire.

    7. Re:Sick of zombies by Lord+Kano · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Sounds like the train of thought the Militia type in Michigan go through.

      Or shopkeepers in Los Angeles.

      Or anyone who's aware of events that took place in the 1960s.

      LK

      --
      "Hi. This is my friend, Jack Shit, and you don't know him." - Lord Kano
    8. Re:Sick of zombies by Trogre · · Score: 4, Funny

      FREE O.J.

      Where? And do we need to bring our own cups?

      --
      "Nine times out of ten, starting a fire is not the best way to solve the problem." - my wife
  3. Oblig. by dln385 · · Score: 3, Funny
    1. Re:Oblig. by JoshuaZ · · Score: 4, Funny

      Oh great. Earlier I worried about zombies. And I worried about velociraptors. Now I need to worry about zombie velociraptors? How about I just curl up under my covers and pretend the world isn't out to kill me.

    2. Re:Oblig. by sconeu · · Score: 2, Funny

      Probably more appropriate: http://xkcd.com/348.

      --
      General Relativity: Space-time tells matter where to go; Matter tells space-time what shape to be.
  4. Zombie Modelling by BrightSpark · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Many of today's top models look like zombies. :-p I have had many zombies on my unix systems and Wikipedia here shows how to kill them.. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zombie_process Not as satisfying as Left 4 Dead, but it does the job.

  5. Interesting, but... by russotto · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Until we manage to create real zombies and release them on the population, we'll never be able to test the model.

  6. Convergent serie by gmuslera · · Score: 4, Funny

    It grow fast but always is limited by the absolute numbers of installed windows PC.

    1. Re:Convergent serie by techno-vampire · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Oh, good! It's nice to see that I wasn't the only slashdotter to read the summary and think it referred to zombified PCs.

      --
      Good, inexpensive web hosting
  7. Ahhh the possiblities... by ae1294 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The key difference between the models presented here and other models of infectious disease is that the dead can come back to life. Clearly, this is an unlikely scenario if taken literally, but possible real-life applications may include allegiance to political parties, or diseases with a dormant infection.

    Did anyone else RTFA? Note the bold part... I always knew there was more to political fandom than met the eye. Apparently it involves your brain being consumed...

  8. Pass along to Obama by Rehnberg · · Score: 2, Funny

    Once we get done reforming healthcare, perhaps someone could pass this up to Obama and get a plan for a zombie infestation drawn up. Never a bad idea to have one of those...

  9. Missing variables... by Dahamma · · Score: 5, Funny

    Unfortunately, after reading this study there seem to be several missing elements:

    1. zombie speed and effectiveness. Are these 28 Days Later psycho zombies or Shaun of the Dead shambling loser zombies? And sure, they modeled an "encounter" but it's a simple one-on-one winner takes all. Any good zombistician knows most zombie encounters are between a small band of survivors and a horde. It needs to be modeled!

    2. It appears that any individual can transition between the "Zombie" and "Removed" state. There needs to be a 4th (end) state: "Brains Splattered By Shotgun".

    3. Bruce Campbell.

  10. Senior author by plasmidmap · · Score: 2, Informative

    The senior author is a professor at the university I attend--he is a super nice guy and does very interesting non-zombie related research too.

  11. Let us by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    Consider a spherical zombie in simple harmonic motion...

  12. Spatial stochastic disease modelling by Spacelem · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Modelling a zombie outbreak?

    That's entirely similar to the work I've been doing for the last year, modelling the spread of a disease among an animal population. I've been trying to work out under what situations culling will lead to an increase in the number of infecteds.

    So, if I name the particular species I've been working on "zombies", and adjust some of the parameters, I've got an SI model that is not only very similar to this, but also includes spatial structure and stochasticity, which is crucial for describing the stability of the disease, and modelling the spread when the population size is low.