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PageRank Algorithm Applied To the Food Web

An anonymous reader brings word of a new application for PageRank, Google's link analysis algorithm: monitoring the food web in an ecosystem. A team of researchers found that a modified version of PageRank can predict with great accuracy which species are vital to the existence of others. Quoting: "Every species is embedded in a complex network of relationships with others. A single extinction can cascade into the loss of seemingly unrelated species. Investigating when this might happen using more conventional methods is complicated, as even in simple ecosystems, the number of combinations exceeds the number of atoms in the universe. So, it would be impossible to try them all. Co-author Dr. Stefano Allesina realized he could apply PageRank to the problem when he stumbled across an article in a journal of applied mathematics describing the Google algorithm. 'First of all, we had to reverse the definition of the algorithm. In PageRank, a web page is important if important pages point to it. In our approach, a species is important if it points to important species.'"

22 of 94 comments (clear)

  1. Why is this surprising? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Pagerank is just a repeated application of a transformation matrix. It has the effect of running a Markov model (a way to model discrete states) until there is convergence. He just used a Markov model the way that it is supposed to be used...

    I dont get it... what's notable here?

    1. Re:Why is this surprising? by PC+and+Sony+Fanboy · · Score: 2, Funny

      I dont get it... what's notable here?

      We're finally able to figure out what species will have the most impact if it is removed. Likely, the folks at google are turning this into some sort of biological warfare device - They want to figure out which species of mosquito we have to kill in order to remove all mouth-breathers from the planet, leaving all the hot women alive for the rest of us.

      More seriously, if we can figure out which species are most important (and which are least important), doesn't that give both the tree-hugging sea-kittens at PETA more firepower? And doesn't it enable logging companies to say "Well, that species of rat isn't actually important to anything except the animals that live in this forest anyways ... "

      Either way, I approve of this message.

    2. Re:Why is this surprising? by xenocide2 · · Score: 4, Funny

      It's remarkable because a biologist discovered math and possibly statistics.

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    3. Re:Why is this surprising? by DeadDecoy · · Score: 5, Informative

      Because it's a novel use of an existing method? It was published in PLoS and not some mathematics journal. So, while the algorithms are not new, they may be new to the intended audience. The actual claim of the article is that it can offer a predictive analysis of extinction rates of a species and validated them on some in-silico experiments. This could be useful for bench-scientists, as they could figure out what might happen in an experiment before running expensive tests. This might be useful for conservations trying to make sure whole ecosystems don't die out due to the removal of a species; the 'might' is significant as real-world ecosystems are generally more complex. But anyways, it's interesting because the models have practical application outside of theory to help us understand the world.

    4. Re:Why is this surprising? by invalid_user · · Score: 2, Funny

      Actually the Markov model is prevalent in bioinformatics, as well as other statistical methods. However, the biologists are an entirely different race, typically unfamiliar with advanced mathematics. In fact, the entire field of biology works on foundations and culture so alien to science (fondness for objectivity and modesty) sometimes I wonder whether it is right to call them scientists, or just group them with the social scientists and psychologists.

      It's a pity they dominate the big science journals.

    5. Re:Why is this surprising? by jpmorgan · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Yes, it is notable that this wasn't published in 'some mathematics journal'. Pagerank is computing the limiting distribution of a discrete-time markov chain applied to webpages using a certain statistical model of hyperlinks. It makes no sense to talk of applying 'pagerank' to things other than webpages, because that's what makes pagerank special! As soon as you take pagerank out of the web-context, it's just a steady state analysis of a markov chain, which is a standard statistical technique covered in undergraduate statistics courses. It's like saying applying bayesian inference to a problem in ecology is using a 'spam filter.'

      For me, this tells me that perhaps these researchers should wander over to their local mathematics department more often. They might find all sorts of goodies that mathematicians have developed in the past few centuries. Dr. Allesina might have discovered that there was no need to reverse engineer the algorithm, since the underlying mathematical principles have been well understood for over a hundred years. We might have a better understanding of the world if most sciences took mathematical models as seriously as physicists do.

    6. Re:Why is this surprising? by speedtux · · Score: 2, Informative

      Mathematical biology has a history that goes back further than computer science. Many biologists probably know a lot more math and statistics than your average computer scientists.

  2. More than atoms in the universe? by JordanL · · Score: 2, Interesting

    What factorial does it take to equal that number? I know that its very easy in math to get numbers that large, but this wasn't a place I expected to find it.

    1. Re:More than atoms in the universe? by cmseagle · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Yeah, I would tend to call BS on that particular statistic. Let's say the average water bottle is .5L. In that one, single water bottle that is sitting on my desk, there are 5.01*10^25 atoms. That's one hell of a number.

      Now, let's pretend God has a really good magnifying glass and a really small set of tweezers, and he's removing atoms from this water bottle at a rate of 1 per second. Conservative estimates put the universe at 13.5 billion years old, which converts to 4.25*10^17 seconds.

      So, since the beginning of time, God has removed 4.25*10^17 atoms from my water bottle. A lot, right? Not quit. (4.25*10^17)/(5.01*10^25)=8.00*10^-9.

      Even removing an atom every second since the beginning of time, only a few trillionths are missing from my bottle of water. That's just a bottle of water, now imagine the number of atoms in the ocean, or in the sun. Something does not seem right with the "More than number of atoms in the universe" claim.

    2. Re:More than atoms in the universe? by MyLongNickName · · Score: 2, Informative

      Here ya go. About 59.

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    3. Re:More than atoms in the universe? by MyLongNickName · · Score: 3, Informative

      What does your tweezers and removing atoms have to do with combinations? It is trivial to come up with a situation where there are more possible combinations that atoms of the universe. The number of possible chess games starts to get close (magnitude of 50 versus 80 for the atoms in the universe. Slightly more complex scenarios would easily go past 10^80. The trick is to find a way to model the complexity with a much simpler algorithm.

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  3. Importance by Darkness404 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    In PageRank, a web page is important if important pages point to it. In our approach, a species is important if it points to important species.'"

    The difference is, its pretty obvious to a human if a page is important. On the other hand there are a lot of species that we don't know if they are important or not. So how do we know what the "important" species are? Other than humans, we don't know of any real "important" species. Could the ecosystem survive without X? Theres no way we can really know that.

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    1. Re:Importance by JorDan+Clock · · Score: 3, Informative

      The model helps determine if a species is important. That's the whole point. Previously, we didn't have an easy way to determine a particular species impact on an ecosystem until it was almost extinct or already gone. Now by using "PageRank" to determine their importance, we can model what will happen if specific species are no longer part of the food web.

    2. Re:Importance by Hadlock · · Score: 4, Informative

      NO! Page Rank is not named after webPage. It's named after Larry Page who created it. Arrrgh.
       
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PageRank
       
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Page

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    3. Re:Importance by Onymous+Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I was worried about this. Either underspecifying "importance" or using it in a simplistic way (though you may not actually be doing these things).

      It measures a kind of importance. Not importance in all respects. Specifically, it measures importance in interdependence. Which only very roughly translates to an idealized general or universal importance.

      Remove humans from the web and you won't get much "impact on [the] ecosystem" (in the form of cascading die off). Yet humans are generally regarded as "important".

      It should be noted (now and in each subsequent discussion of this topic) that the value of a species needs to be assessed by other measures as well. Like how beautiful its plumage is.

  4. Very helpful for Endangered Species Act by Kligat · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I've often been annoyed by the excessive focus on the iconic and popular species in many endangered species awareness campaigns. It is easy to say "we are spending a million dollars on protecting a worm?" in Congress, but when more renowned species like a hammerhead shark variety are endangered, they will naturally get more attention. Now scientists can defend their case for funding by pointing to this algorithm.

    1. Re:Very helpful for Endangered Species Act by icegreentea · · Score: 2, Insightful

      People generally don't want to spend their money saving some worm. As it's been suggested before, the focus on megafauna partly exists just because they are charismatic. Panda bears are fricking cute. And people will donate money to save panda bears, their habitat, and everything else living there. It's unfortunate, but it's just facing the reality of the situation. Being able to identity the real keystone species would be great for the actual scientists, conservationists, and policy makers. But when its time to get funding, donations and support especially from the public, you can bet it'll be some megafauna. I mean, look at that cute widdy tiger cub. Worm eggs? UGH.

  5. Importance is easy to determine... by PC+and+Sony+Fanboy · · Score: 2, Funny

    Have you learned nothing from history? We can know if an ecosystem survives without certain members.

    It just isn't a good idea to experiment.

  6. PigeonRank by FooAtWFU · · Score: 2, Funny

    I would have thought that an animal-based algorithm such as PigeonRank would be more applicable to this problem.

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  7. Re:But solve the real problem? by macraig · · Score: 2, Insightful

    If you're under 40 and in good health you're in for a rather rude awakening, with those beliefs. You'll likely live to see the shit begin to hit the fan in a serious way. Google and other online sources should be education enough for you. I'm too disorganized to do anything more than plant the seed; you'll have to water and feed it.

  8. Re:But solve the real problem? by Darkness404 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    So lets see here, I'm supposed to believe some random person on the internet because of A) Sci-Fi films, B) "facts" that contradict reputable sources such as the United Nations and C) ideas that don't make much sense. Lets see here, we have technology that allows us to grow more crops in a single area than ever before, technology that lets us grow more crops with less effort (we have less humans employed as farmers than before yet have more crops than before) and technology that will let us grow crops in places that could never have had crops planted before. We similarly have lots of habitable space, more than ever before. Someone could live in the middle of the desert, yet still have food, a habitable place to live and water.

    So in the end, we have more food than we know what to do with, technology enabling us if there was some kind of food shortage to grow our own food in our basements if need be, no shortage of space, etc. Seriously, part of science fiction is... fiction. If it was true, well perhaps I should start carving Ego in big letters in rocks in case humanity forgets about individuality and the word I (for those not in the know this is a reference to Ayn Rand's book Anthem). But really take a look at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Population_growth_rate_world.PNG -large- portions of the world have a negative birth rate. So with no science to back up your claims, other than a few science fiction movies, why should I believe you?

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  9. Eigenvector Centrality Measure by sugarmotor · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The pagerank algorithm is better understood as a kind of Eigenvector Centrality Measure.

    See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eigenvector_centrality#Eigenvector_centrality

    Meaning it is not new as a method by itself, but applying it to the linking-structure of the WWW in order to produce
    relevant documents for a query, was new. I think it is fair to say that the Google Pagerank matters very little, outside of being able to rank otherwise
      not-comparable search results.

    And so it is better to state that "a specialized Eigenvector Centrality Measure can predict with great accuracy which species are vital to the existence of others" instead of "a modified version of PageRank can predict with great accuracy which species are vital to the existence of others". One can see that also when one realizes that these biologists have no query, no search, no equivalent of search keywords.

    On the other hand, when the post says "Co-author Dr. Stefano Allesina realized he could apply PageRank to the problem when he stumbled across an article in a journal of applied mathematics describing the Google algorithm." -- I guess he might have found the method through the Google name.

    Stephan

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