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Math Indicates Pollster Is Forging Results
An anonymous reader writes "Nate Silver suggests the political pollster Strategic Vision is 'cooking the books. And whoever is doing so is doing a pretty sloppy job.' Silver crunched five years worth of their polling data, and found their reported results followed a suspicious pattern which traditionally suggests fraud. The five-year distribution of the numbers 'is not random. It's not close to random.' The polling firm had already been reprimanded by the American Association for Public Opinion Research for failing to disclose their methodology, though the firm argues they did comply with the organization's request. Their response to Silver's accusation? 'We have a call in to our attorney on this and fully intend to take action that will vindicate us.'"
From TFA, it looks like they handle a fair variety of sundry topics in American politics. Not a giant deal, I've certainly never heard of this particular outfit before; but I find it extraordinarily hard to believe that anything which increases the amount of false-but-plausible-looking noise in the world is a good thing.
On important topics such is more dangerous than on less important ones; but its mere existence makes the world a less knowable place either way. Either you have people believing false data, or you have people falling into the essentially nescient "all data are just source biases" position.
First of all, I don't think "What do I care" is anything but flamebaiting. Who cares if you don't care?
Second, if they're the same "strategic vision" that the article is talking about, their webpage says
"Strategic Vision has worldwide experience developing tools to measure decision-making, human behavior, attitudes and perceptions. Its globally relevant, comprehensive theory of human behavior creates the most effective strategies addressing decision-making in product development and communications in the widest variety of fields, including automotive, customer service, government and politics, medicine and healthcare, organizational and jury, travel and leisure, food and beverages, and education." So they probably report on anything you will pay them to poll on, or rather, anything you will pay them to make a graph from nothing.
Their self-reported client list. Granted, they may have just made that list up as well.
Lastly, a quote in TFA by the company gives you plenty of reason to care:
There you go: the company is mad about being uncovered and is doing the next step any stupid assholes do when their misdeeds come to light: sue in a vain attempt to keep the information from becoming well known. Therefore, -everyone- should know they're faking the results. I'm tempted to e-mail all their clients with a link to the article. If they go out of buisiness, maybe other shitty companies will finally realize you don't sue people who expose you as charlatans.
Bwhahahah, sometimes I say ridiculous things.
Well said.
I find it disturbing, too, that the media just reports the polling companies' results, without reporting things like what questions were asked, in what order, how the poll was conducted or who commissioned it, all of which can have a big effect on the results. A lot of "push polling" goes on, especially when the polls are commissioned by special interest groups, business associations, unions or political parties themselves.
I'm not in the US, so I don't know this polling company, but I've had a municipal, provincial and federal election in the past 12 months (with another possible federal election imminent) and I think polling and radio call in shows have a great deal of effect on people's opinions these days, more so than traditional newspaper and television newscasts.
If Strategic Vision was conducting fraudulent poles, I would be looking at their client list and going after whoever paid for them as well.
I don't care why you're posting AC