Analyst Predicts Android Overtaking iPhone In 2012

Market watcher Gartner is claiming that by Q4 2012 Google's Android smartphone OS will have overtaken Apple's iPhone. Currently only the sixth most popular phone OS, Android is set to rocket into second place behind Symbian if the predictions are to be believed. The reason for the changing of the guard is that "many handset makers are betting their futures on Android, while Apple is just one company." 2012 rankings place Symbian at the top followed by Android, iPhone, Windows Mobile, and Blackberry."

Comments

I dont' see it this way

[fyngyrz]

The iPhone is ahead because of the apps and the highly capable hardware. If Android phones don't step up to the plate app-wise, AND touch-wise, accelerometer-wise, GPS-wise, compass-wise, iTunes-wise... then you're just going to have a lot of companies betting on the wrong horse.

OTOH, if Apple doesn't start letting other companies than ATT into the game so that rural areas can have the phone, there will always be an opening for other phones.

Re:I dont' see it this way

[Anonymous Coward]

What are you talking about? Is this another issue with dumbed down US market? I don't own an Android phone, but I played with one. Has touch, has accelerometer, has GPS, has compass, has apps. Fuck iTunes.

Re:I dont' see it this way

[rcolbert]

iTunes-wise...

QFT - Phones, service, apps, etc. are all fine, but iTunes is really the killer app or Trojan Horse depending on your point of view. I don't see any application out there to manage content that's nearly as robust and sustainable as iTunes. There might be desktop applications that are better at one thing or another, but the whole package is compelling. I believe most people trust that iTunes and the Apple store will be there years down the road, and are more willing to bet their music libraries on Apple's reputation. Show me the iTunes killer first, then let's talk about an iPhone killer. Otherwise, we're putting the cart before the trojan horse.

Re:I dont' see it this way

[LWATCDR]

The iPhone OS is pretty nice but the lack of multitasking is annoying.
The hardware is good but outside of looks it isn't better than what HTC and others offer. The actual hardware cpu/gpu of the ZuneHD is much better than iPhones.
iTunes? who cares. I have an iPod Touch and I hardly ever use iTunes I do everything over wifi.

1. Apps. Android needs more developers for more apps. With more android phones hitting the market the developers will follow so will the apps.
2. Betting .Apple is not selling the iPhone OS to other companies so they can not bet on the iPhone so Android, S60, and WindowsMobile are the only games in town. Android seems like the best bet to me.
3. Hardware The new Samsung Moment, HTC Hero, and the Motorola Clik all look like very good phones and in some ways are better than the iPhone GS.
4. Carriers. Android is going to be available in the US on T-Mobile, Sprint, Verizon, and probably AT&T soon. Unlocked phones are already available in the EU so Android is available on a lot more carriers.

The iPhone is a very nice phone but AT&T is a lot more expensive than Sprint and Sprint's customer service has gotten a lot better. If I could get an iPhone on Sprint I would buy one but I will probably get a Hero or a Moment.

Re:I dont' see it this way

[sopssa]

As compared to US market, in Europe it has been pretty common to buy your phone from store and *then* get a contract for it (or prepaid, refillable SIM card). The "make a contract with us, get a phone and pay for it monthly" came maybe 4-5 years ago, and they're not still even locked the operator you bought it from - you can switch to another operator and just pay the monthly price for the phone.

Interestingly, iPhone changed this a little bit in Europe where people haven't got used to it. It was exclusively available from single operators per country and you had to make a contract with them too. A bad market for Apple.

I rather buy the phone once than get tricked in to paying more to it, but just monthly for a long time. Even more so if its locked to a single operator.

That is why Android will be a lot more succesful in Europe than iPhone is. And what comes to software and the phones supporting Android, theres still only a few phones out and software starting to come out too as the userbase grows. This is different from Apple's way who just made a single phone, so it takes more time to grow.

Re:I dont' see it this way

[znu]

Yeah. Isn't this exactly what we heard about Microsoft's PlaysForSure platform? "It's a whole multivendor platform. Apple is just one company. Of course PlaysForSure will win." How did that turn out again?

I'm not necessarily saying the iPhone will become (and remain) as dominant in the smart phone market as the iPod is in the music player market, mind you. But the specific reasoning behind this specific prediction is clearly faulty. Tech industry analysts tend to assume that there's something inherently attractive to consumers about multivendor platforms, but the consumer market has demonstrated several times that this is just not the case. Consumers don't care about multivendor platforms in any abstract sense; consumers buy products, not platforms. They'll only gravitate toward multivendor platforms because of the specific products offered within those platforms.

If, for most people, there is no specific Android product (i.e. combination of device and software) that is superior to the iPhone, there is no reason the iPhone cannot outsell all Android products combined.

Note, again, that I'm not necessarily saying this will happen, just that there's no inherent reason to believe it can't.

Re:I dont' see it this way

[dbcad7]

Because it's not, really. It's a rant on how someone loves their phone, and that no one could possibly make a better one. It's not insightful to ignore what is going on in the market. It's not insightful to ignore what's going on in the world outside your own. It's a comment from someone who most likely has never even used an Android phone.. most "iPhone will never be beat" comments are written by such people.. It ignores the fact that within a month, in the US there will be 7 Android competitors across various carriers, and that by this time next year it will be at least double that.. Maybe the iPhone is just that great, that it can outsell all these models across all these carriers.. or maybe the projections are understated, and it won't even take that long.

Re:I dont' see it this way

[Inakizombie]

Seconded. I don't need to attach my G1 to a computer to do any sort of updates or activation, and all the hardware features you describe have been in the G1 since day one. And yes, with the 1.6 update it has multi-touch.

Re:I dont' see it this way

[MobileTatsu-NJG]

This is just an analyst's prediction though. So a heaping teaspoon of salt is required while reading. Sure it's possible, but is it really likely at this point?

No but it does cause a lot of ads to be served on this site.

Re:I dont' see it this way

[fuzzyfuzzyfungus]

Really depends on what you mean by "#1". In terms of being "the best phone available", it'll probably shake down more or less as it does with PCs vs. Macs:

At any given moment, you can find PCs that have cutting edge features that Macs won't have for a while yet; but, while PCs run the gamut from superb to crap, Macs are relatively consistent and don't have a real low end. In the same way, iPhone specs are consistently better than average(touch screen that is actually functional, reasonable CPU/GPU/RAM/Flash, etc.); but lags behind the high end of the android/winmo handsets(no OLED, lowish end camera, slower CPU, and so on).

If you interpret "#1" in the sense of market share, or at least smartphone share, though, android could pretty easily meet that criterion. Android devices should cut through the "featurephone" or high-end dumbphone market with ease, and will probably also grab a decent chunk of windows mobile(unless MS can stop sucking at it) and symbian(unless nokia can switch over to maemo quickly and competently) market share. Plus, android pretty much has it made among those carriers who can't get iPhone agreements with Apple.

Re:I dont' see it this way

[jo42]

If you think that Google is not already working on something like that, you're naive

And it will be in beta for at least five years...

Re:I dont' see it this way

[LWATCDR]

It maybe the band that they are using but I can hear GSM calls clicking on my compter speakers when ever anybody in my office or right outside my office gets a call. Yes even the iPhone does it.
It is not uncommon.
http://www.smartdevicecentral.com/article/that+crazy+gsm+buzz/199379_1.aspx
http://ask.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=06/04/07/2111217

Here is the reason why it happens.
"The cause of this buzzing has to do with GSM's "time division" nature. The ever-knowledgeable Keith Nowak, spokesperson for Nokia, explains it as follows: "[[With GSM]] the RF transmitter is turned on/off at a fast rate, and that 'pulsing' is often picked up by nearby devices that don't have good RF shielding. In the case of GSM the pulse rate is 217 Hz, which can be easily heard.""
In the EU the must shield computer speaker cables which in the US really isn't needed as much since CDMA phones are a lot more popular and do not cause that interference.
Of course if GSM didn't use a pulse rate in the audio range that would fix it as well.

Re:I dont' see it this way

[Aqualung812]

I'm an iPhone 3G S user, and I AM thankful for the Android.

However, this analyst doesn't see what you pointed out, reaction to pressure.

If Android starts offering things software-wise that Apple does not, Apple can (not sure they will) change their App Store policies pretty quick. Starting with getting out of the exclusive AT&T arrangement, I'm sure we'll see some changes between now and 2011

Thankfully, I'll be done with my 2 years in 2011. If Android has the same share of apps that iPhone has, I'll get to make a hardware and moral (F/OSS) choice. However, if developers don't embrace the Android, I'll be getting a iPhone 4GXXX

Re:I dont' see it this way

[rickb928]

"If Android phones don't step up to the plate app-wise, AND touch-wise, accelerometer-wise, GPS-wise, compass-wise, iTunes-wise... "

My Android phone has touch, acclerometer, GPS, and a compass. They all work magnificently, except the compass, which if you have a magnetic clasp on your iPhone case, you have similar issues.

If iTunes was let out of the box by Apple, then that would be a non-issue. Oh, wait, it is anyways, since I do not want or need iTunes. In fact, iTunes is not the only source of music. My G1 hooks up with Amazon, though I acquire my music the old-fashioned way mostly. So a non-sequiter for me. Or something like that.

Now for apps, I have a few thousand apps to choose from, everything from games to fart apps. How many fart apps are there in the iPhone store? And how many are free? The iPhone store suffers from app bloat in a big way, with countless copies and duplicates of mortgage calculators, fart apps, stupid phone tricks, and such. The raw count of apps isn't nearly as important as the variety of unique and useful apps. I suspect Android is already very close to the iPhone in that regard.

The reality is that Android is doing pretty well, and is damned good.

Now for the bad.

So far, every OTA update has caused me to do a factory wipe, and I lose data from apps that don't give me the option to save it. I don't see this changing.

The Bluetooth stack is somewhat flaky, and A2DP is very poor - reception and streaming cutout problems. Interested? I may start a blog dedicated to this. I'm understanding the hardware limitations. But I bet the iPhone has some of the same issues, which makes it a BT problem.

My G1 doesn't have enough RAM to do what I really want it to do. Sadly, it was too little, too soon. Ask some iPhone 1st Gen users how they feel. But I do like the keyboard. Sometimes, buttons are better.

I'm betting before 2012 Android will surpass all other platforms. It's free, as in beer. Just add a few developers, and you are jammin with your new models. Motorola grokked this, and will save money both in licensing and staff.

Re:I dont' see it this way

[osgeek]

So, three years ago would you have predicted that Apple would be a dominant cell phone manufacturer?

Didn't even know about the iPhone at that time?

Hmmm... you think that's air you're breathing?

Things change. I'd doubt that Apple is just going to sit on its hands for the next couple of years.

Re:I dont' see it this way

[Serious Callers Only]

In addition to the shortcomings on Android hardware (or perhaps linked to that and the limited time they've been out), the market for Android apps just isn't there yet. This is an interesting comparison of revenue from a game developer:

http://larvalabs.com/blog/iphone/android-market-sales/

One example he gives is Trism - $250,000 sales on the iTunes store, $2000 earned on the Android store.

Android is a great first effort though, and it'll be interesting to see what they do with it - the best thing they can do in my opinion is to set themselves up in opposition to Apple as a more open, welcoming alternative, which is on the side of the consumer and is not indifferent to users and downright hostile to outside developers (as Apple occasionally is).

Re:I dont' see it this way

[koolfy]

And it will be in beta for at least five years...

So should be Vista.

Google's Beta is Microsoft/Apple's post-Rock-Solid-Stable equivalent. Really, and for the last time, versions and release names are nothing but subjective marketing data.

Re:I dont' see it this way

[sakdoctor]

A common misconception.
It's actually the year the Mayans predicted as the year of the linux desktop.

Re:I dont' see it this way

[Fallen Seraph]

The lack of multitasking in the iPhone is an asset, not a shortcoming.

No, I assure you, it's a shortcoming. Palm's WebOS did multi-tasking the right way (hell, even the iPhone's browser manages tabs in that way). And when I get a call on my Pre, I've never had an issue with "having too many apps open to take a phone call" as you imply. And when I recieve a phone call, it takes up half my screen to inform me of it. You say you rolled Pre's out to your user base recently and they didn't like them, but you fail to tell us who your user base is, and as such, give us no way of knowing if the iPhone, a Blackberry, or anything else for that matter would've fared much better.

I'll say this, after owning a Pre for about 2 months now, and having nearly all of my friends own iPhones, both definitely have their benefits and issues. There are things the Pre has which my friends wish their iPhones had (updates over the air, no need to use iTunes to sync, proper multi-tasking, etc). And conversely, there are things the iPhone has which I wish the Pre had (a more developed app store, better graphics acceleration, better functionality in landscape mode, etc).

I can't honestly say that one is necessarily better than the other, and they can't either from the many conversations we've had on the issue. the big questions is what happens from here, though. Palm's already moving onto their second WebOS powered handset, while Apple's still plotting their next move. I know many of my friends are planning to switch to Android once their contracts are up unless Apple actually does something of substance with the iPhone again. But the bigger point is that thus far they have ONLY the iPhone and nothing more. There're no options. I, for example, didn't want one because it lacked a physical keyboard, and I didn't want to use AT&T. Android, by contrast, is taking the buckshot approach wherein they're basically tossing a multitude of different handsets by different manufacturers onto different carriers, many of which look vastly different in their GUIs, but all of which will share the same core app store and capabilities.

The iPhone recently tried a new marketing campaign wherein they claimed "There's an app for that." By the looks of it, Android is essentially running with "There's a phone for that."

Re:I dont' see it this way

[SputnikCopilot]

Yeah, just like Gmail, and we all know how unsuccessful that was.

Re:I dont' see it this way

[LWATCDR]

My wife has a pre and I have an iPod Touch aka an iPhone without the phone.
She loves the multi tasking. She can and does keep several applications open and once and flips between them.
It is a pain to exit one app on the touch to go to another app. I would say that you don't know until you have a phone that multitasks well.
It is funny but the lack of multi tasking comments sounds way too much like the people back in the DOS days saying that multi tasking was usless because they had TSRs.
Your feelings on the HTC phones are your. Engadget, Cnet, and a lot of other people do not agree with you.
As to the ZuneHD vs the iPhone. The Tegra cpu gpu can actually support 1080p video and is very powerful and power efficent combination. It will be in many smartbooks soon. I don't care that it isn't selling well. Many things about the software stack are really not great when you compare it to the iPod Touch but the actual hardware is very good. The statment was other companies have to step up to Apples quality of hardware. The iPhone's actual hardware is nothing all that special.
Right now the iPhone's best features are.
1. The developer community.
2. User interface.
And I think the Pre has as good of a user interface. And since I have an iPod Touch and use my wife's Pre I have seen them side by side.

Re:I dont' see it this way

[Esteanil]

I really love my HTC Hero. I've got all of the above, + IP telephony (through sipdroid, or Google Voice if you're in the US). I've been abroad for almost 2 months, and make quite a few calls per day back to Norway - and I'm usually around a WiFi spot :-) Can make do with just a prepaid subscription on the side - saves me quite a bit of money :-) Oh, and the next HTC Android - the Dragon - will have 1Ghz processor... We're talking about apps that'll make iPhone look slow and clumsy :-)

Symbian and Windows Mobile

[sopssa]

I wish Symbian would die already, its a horrible system and all apps require certification from Symbian if other users want to run them.

Windows Mobile I still except to stick around, it's quite nice system and you can run any apps on it (I have HTC so I only have experience with their modifications to it, but still)

However it doesn't really come as a surprise that Android is going to climb it's place up, and great that it is. Even if iPhone is a nice phone OS, it's way too locked down, only runs on Apple's closed phones and apps store.

Re:Symbian and Windows Mobile

[sznupi]

Wrong, some funcionalities require certification, not all apps per se (and it's actually quite trival to work around; at least on typical unlocked phone available in Europe, don't know how it is in the US...)

Better accept that Symbian stays - it still has almost half of whole smartphone market, and Nokia seem to be starting to push it into mainstream (true mainstream, occupied by S40 / feature phones now). Also...it might not be that bad, Symbian^3 or 4 will supposedly rely on Qt.

Gartner

[larry bagina]

You lost me at Gartner.

Re:Gartner

[NoYob]

Actually 30 years ago, Gartner, as in the Gartner got a reputation as having extremely accurate predictions and knowledge of the IT industry - this was in the 70s and the 80s. Of course, there wasn't as much going on in the 70s as there is now. He built up a reputation and a business.

Now, he has a bunch of associates working there doing the actual predictions and analysis. For what that's worth.

Gartner himself, I believe, is on a tropical private island and surround by beautiful naked women.

I could see that

[wcrowe]

Sure, I could see Sybian at the top.

What?

Ohhh, Symbian... Uh... Sorry...

WinMo trap

[BadAnalogyGuy]

The problem with WinMo isn't the OS itself. It's that Microsoft never pushed OEMs to build much more into their devices than the existing apps and services supplied with the WinMo development kit. So it's a half-baked system sold as a complete solution.

Google Android has the exact same problem. Google is focused on developing a great OS, but the better the OS is out of the box, the less likely OEMs are to develop their own IP and create real differentiation, not to mention a truly user-centric experience.

This is where Apple's iPhone really shines. Since it is in itself a final product, Apple can exert a huge amount of effort in order to meet their own user-centric standards. The product succeeds or fails as a product, not as a delivery of middleware to handset manufacturers.

Re:WinMo trap

[LWATCDR]

But the iPhone isn't the top smart phone.
Blackberry is in the US and Symbian is in the world.

Android has the same advantage that Windows does on the Desktop.
Lots of vendors.
HTC, Motorola, and Samsung all have android phones. In the US you can get Android phones from T-Mobile with Sprint comming on line next week and Verizon coming soon.
LG I hear is also going to have an Android phone soon.

I wouldn't bet that Android doesn't come out with a bigger market share than Apple.

Of course I an still wondering why QNX never got into the smartphone market.

Stupid.

[jcr]

The guy's just counting vendors, not counting users and apps. This is the kind of idiot who believes a spreadsheet jockey who says "if we spend enough on advertising, we'll make a fortune!"

-jcr

Biased like crazy

[mysidia]

"many handset makers are betting their futures on Android, while Apple is just one company."

Lots of companies bet their futures on Linux 5 years ago and are doing just fine, but has Linux surpassed Windows as top desktop OS?

Google is just one company.

Microsoft is just one company.

Just because some handset makers are betting on the future of Android, doesn't mean their bets are panning out.

Oh yeah.. and their bets can pan out without their OS overtaking the iPhone OS.

Can we please stop quoting "Analysts"??

[popo]

I've been an analyst. I've been a consultant. Does anyone realize how little it takes to be either of the two?

If we simply replace the word "analyst" with the word "dude" the headline more accurately reflects the absurdity of this piece (and its utter lack of press-worthiness).

i.e: "Dude thinks Android will overtake the iPhone by 2012". ...Yeah, and?

What's worse is that Wall Street plays this game daily to make non-news look like news, and to make bad news look like good news. Did your company lose money *again* this quarter? No worries, you still beat the expectation of some analyst, er "dude", somewhere.

This is non-news. Wake me up when Android actually makes a dent in the market. Some dude somewhere thinks it will? Great. Some other dude somewhere thinks the opposite. Must we write an article every time some moderately paid asshole has an opinion?

Re:Can we please stop quoting "Analysts"??

[swanzilla]

i.e: "Dude thinks Android will overtake the iPhone by 2012". ...Yeah, and?

The Analyst abides.

As always, xkcd is relevant here

[A beautiful mind]

This is what the analysts are doing.

iPod Killer

[whisper_jeff]

Isn't that the same year the iPod Killer is supposed to be released?

Yeah. That's what I thought. Talk to me when something is actually worth talking about.

and the iTunes store was crushed by rivals in 2008

[enkidu]

By that same logic, the iTunes store should have been crushed by rivals (amazon, walmart, emusic et al) in 2007. Guess what? Didn't happen that way. I think that android will gain marketshare, but most of it will be from Symbian and WinCE Mobile (or whatever they're calling it this year). Apple will also gain market share at an equal or greater pace, fueled by the advantage of the app store. Focused competition will beat apple (remember Palm vs Newton?), but unfocused, dispersed competition is going to have a hard time beating Apple at their own game.

Android + Shanzai = Number 1

[pieterh]

If you've ever tried a KIRF $50 Chinese smartphone you'll see that all that has been missing is Android. The Shanzai ability to innovate in hardware is so powerful that I predict this is the future model for building phones, computers, and such.

All that's been missing is a decent free OS.

While the Shanzai firms take over most of the world's production of smartphones, and sell their designs and models to Nokia, Samsung, Apple, and Microsoft, they will also be taking over PMPs, netbooks, and god knows what else.

And finally we'll all be using $20 smartphones and $75 computers. I cannot wait.

Two Predictions

[BryanL]

I have 2 predictions for Android (though this might seem obvious to some people.)

First, if Android overtakes Apple, it will be because Android eats into the market share of other mobile handsets/OSes. It probably won't hurt Apple as much as other companies.

Second, Android probably won't overtake Apple any time soon. Having a single company means a focused business strategy. Having many companies involved means a market strategy that is unfocused and hard to define. For every 2 steps forward the Android companies make, they will take 1 step backwards. There are just too many disparate interests involved. If Android surpasses the iPhone, it will be long after 2012.

Re:Oh that's convenient

[jmerlin]

Pretty sure that's what will cause the end of the Earth. Let's see if we can get the Discovery Channel to do a special on it.

Here's where it lost me

[UnknowingFool]

Windows Mobile's share will grow from 10.3 per cent to 12.8 per cent during the same quarters, Gartner added, which will see it remain as the fourth most popular phone-based OS.

So Gartner is saying WinMo will grow. Based on what? Their last release 6.5 is being panned by many reviewers as window-dressing of 6.1 with few new features. The only thing that WinMo users can hope is that WinMo 7 will catch up to iPhone, Android, Palm OS, etc. But at the earliest this is a year away and no one has seen it yet. By that time, WinMo competitors are not likely to be sitting idle and will be continually updating their software.

Is that you Ballmer?

[tylersoze]

"There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance."

http://arstechnica.com/microsoft/news/2007/04/ballmer-says-iphone-has-no-chance-to-gain-significant-market-share.ars

OK

[PinkyGigglebrain]

Maybe its just me but has anyone else noticed how almost everything seems to be happening during or in 2012?

re: Where do I get me a paranoid android phone

[MRe_nl]

At the Radiohead Shack.

How were YOU modded up??

[SuperKendall]

Because it's not, really. It's a rant on how someone loves their phone, and that no one could possibly make a better one.

What the hell. The post you were referring to, said phones were besides the point! It was about how iTunes is the feature that drives phone sales, and said nothing whatsoever about what you are claiming they rant about.

Re:and the iTunes store was crushed by rivals in 2

[_Sprocket_]

Focused competition will beat apple (remember Palm vs Newton?), but unfocused, dispersed competition is going to have a hard time beating Apple at their own game.

Each sector of a market has it's own influences. So it's a little tricky (if not downright self deceptive) to draw conclusions from one and apply it to another. That being said...

The PDA sector was different. The Newton was cutting edge - but it was part of an emerging market. Things really didn't take off until Palm introduced the right form factor. So while it isn't fair to say Palm invented the PDA, they really set the market. But then, that market has ceased to exist along with Palm's domination.

Another example with some parallels is the microcomputer market. Apple defined that market. They weren't the first microcomputer. But they were, at the least, among the first to treat it as a consumer device. They were the first platform for the killer microcomputer business app - the spreadsheet. A market exploded around them. And while they were challenged by IBM's entry in to that market (after IBM realized what was going on in a sector they ignored), it wasn't until IBM lost control of their platform and the "PC" became commodity did Apple get truly buried. This despite the (arguably) superior product of the Mac.

Again - this doesn't mean that what happened in the PDA market or the Personal Computer market is guaranteed to be repeated with mobile computing. But it does provide enough parallels to keep in consideration when trying to make an educated guess at the future.

Re:Mod parent up!

[Chyeld]

More importantly a metric ton of apps still only boils down to a bushel of 'good' apps. The iPhoine definately suffers from the "Oh Wow! Someone is making money on this, lets release everyhing we can think of for it. Maybe we can too!" syndrome.