Nationwide Shortage In Supply of Swine Flu Vaccine

Hugh Pickens writes "The NY Times reports that as the number of swine flu cases grows to levels unprecedented for this time of year, health officials predict a shortfall in the supply of swine flu vaccine. Forty-three children have died from swine flu since August 30 — about the same number that usually die in an entire flu season.' These are very sobering statistics,' says Dr. Anne Schuchat, the director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, 'and unfortunately they are likely to increase.' Projections of the supply of swine flu vaccine have widely varied. During the summer, health officials said 120 million doses would be ready in October but later dropped the estimate to 40 million doses. Now officials expect only 28 million to 30 million doses, adding that the exact number is impossible to predict and could change daily as vaccine manufacturers report that production was behind schedule. 'Vaccine production for influenza is pretty complex,' says Schuchat explaining the delay, 'and the complex process this year is taking a bit longer than we had hoped.' Schuchat warned parents with sick children to be alert for signs that medical attention is required including not eating well, difficulties breathing, and turning blue or gray. A particularly important sign is when children start to get better, then have a relapse, usually a sign that pneumonia is developing, and immediate treatment should be sought."

Comments

43 healthy children? Or 43 total children?

[BobMcD]

It makes a difference. All forms of influenza are devastating to an ill child. We must assume that some ill children have been exposed to H1N1 by now. So, which is the case:

1) All 43 were ill

2) None of th 43 were ill

3) Some portion of the 43 were ill

Also bear in mind that this is only about twice (possibly trending towards three times) as deadly as using school-buses:

"Approximately 27 school aged children die in school bus accidents every year." http://www.onlinelawyersource.com/personal_injury/bus/statistics.html

The 1918 pandemic was certainly something that we do not wish to see repeated. However, it was deadlier than this situation on the order of millions of times more.

Please stop scaring people. Please?

Re:Same News Cycle Every Year

[techess]

Instead of doing a flu shot a few years back I got a pneumonia vaccine. Usually it is the pneumonia that kills you when you get the flu. It doesn't protect you against all forms of pneumonia, but as an added side affect if I get hospitalized for some other reason my chance of getting a secondary pneumonia infection is reduced.

The other bonus is you get one or two shots in your lifetime instead of having to get a shot every year. I guess I'm a bit more trusting of a vaccine that doesn't seem to revolve around a yearly profit cycle.

Re:Do not want

[Firethorn]

1. Your girlfriend got lucky, at least a little. One of my coworkers wasn't so lucky. She died from H1N1, and it wasn't pretty. One could argue that it takes bad luck(and pre-existing conditions) to die from the flu, most cases aren't bad, but even if the death rate was .1%, that's still 100 dead out of 100k infections.
2. Being in the hospital predisposes you to see the bad effects. Kinda like how if you work in a prison you'll see more criminals.
3. Vaccines aren't a cure. If you view viruses like terrorists(who all share a family resemblence), a vaccine is like distributing a rap/identification sheet. Your immune system still has to respond to fight the infection, it just gets a leg up. Against a replicating 'enemy', said leg up can be the difference between life and death.

You might have an arguement about the antibiotics, but that's a 'too late, open another front in the war' - the immune system has already been roused.

If anything, antibacterial soap and sanitizing cleaning products would make a better target. But even then, how much is it our immune systems 'getting lazy' and how much is 'people with weak immune systems aren't dying early'?