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Data-Sifting For Timely Intelligence Still an Elusive Goal
gyrogeerloose writes "Although there was evidence to suggest that the Japanese navy was up to something in December 1941, that information was scant and came too late. Today's intelligence agencies have another problem altogether — more information than they can deal with, and computers aren't helping as much as one might expect for reasons that will be familiar to Slashdot readers: computers can crunch numbers faster and more accurately than humans, but they're still easily baffled by language as it is commonly used in the real world. Metaphor, slang and simple figures of speech can confuse the best algorithm and, as quoted in the linked article in the San Diego Union-Tribune, 'A system that takes a week to discover a bombing that will occur in a day isn't very useful.'"
Squadron Leader: "Top hole. Bally Jerry pranged his kite right in the how's your father. Hairy blighter dicky-birded, feathered back on his Sammy, took a waspy, flipped over on his Betty Harper's and caught his can in the Bertie."
Computer: WTF?
Pilot: "Bunch of monkeys on your ceiling, sir! Grab your egg and fours and let's get the bacon delivered."
Computer: (explodes)
We use an expert system to try and figure out what air traffic controllers are doing in a simulation. It is a big system and making it fast means trading alot of memory for speed. Identifying rules to categorize what a subject is doing is hard, especially because you see things that arent' expected when you think about what rules the system can use to identify a category of interaction. Looking at a stream of recording of system events is similar to looking at a stream of intelligence hits like 'subject crossed border x', 'subject a called subject b', 'subject purchased x, y, and z with credit card #k at mid #l with location coordinants (m,n)' The hardest part is that the system wants context but computers don't do context very well. To do it fast, you have to come up with vectors representing context state and rules and accept a certain amount of errors. Data can easily run into the hundreds of gigabytes for only 1 hour of monitoring a self contained experiment. It is fun though...
That depends upon what the meaning of "is" is.
Intelligence is worthless without an intelligent decision-making process. During the run-up to the second Iraq War, the CIA sent Iraqi-Americans related to Iraqi nuclear scientists to inquire about the status of that country's nuclear program. Thirty Iraqi-Americans were debriefed by the CIA and sent independently of each other. All thirty returned with news that the Iraqi nuclear program had been run into the ground by a relative of Saddam, that the scientists lied about their progress to Saddam to stay in his good graces, and that Saddam was bluffing by denying UN inspectors.
In fact, a few scientists reported that Iraq had no real capability to make nuclear bombs since the early nineties. A crucial centrifuge facility had been destroyed in the first Gulf War. The facility had been unknown to Western intelligence until Saddam's hand-picked boss ordered it to be moved to a safer location. American intelligence detected the activity. They didn't realize that was a nuclear processing facility but knew it was a military target. Thus, the facility was put as a secondary target on the Air Tasking Order designating targets for air bombardment.
One day, a fighter-bomber returning to its carrier had unexpended laser-guided munitions because its primary target had been masked by weather. Back then, American planes could not land with unexpended munitions because the explosives were not inert and posed a risk of fire or explosion. The air traffic controller directed him to the nuclear facility. The bombs hit their target and that was the end of the Iraqi nuclear program.
A NYC lawyer blogs. http://www.chuangblog.com/