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Black Soot May Be Aiding Melting In the Himalayas

Hugh Pickens writes "The Himalayas, home to some 10,000 glaciers, are the main source of replenishment to lakes, streams, and some of the continent's mightiest rivers, on which millions of people depend for their water supplies. Since the 1960s, the acreage covered by Himalayan glaciers has declined by more than 20 percent with a rate of warming twice the global average over the past 30 years. Now Live Science reports that tiny particles of pollution known as 'black carbon' — and not heat-trapping greenhouse gases — may be causing much of the rapid melting of glaciers in the Himalayas. 'Tibet's glaciers are retreating at an alarming rate,' says James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City. 'Black soot is probably responsible for as much as half of the glacial melt, and greenhouse gases are responsible for the rest.' The circulation of the atmosphere in the region causes much of the soot-laden air to 'pile up' against the Himalayas. The soot mixes with other dust from nearby deserts, creating a massive brown cloud visible from space that absorbs incoming solar radiation. As this layer heats up in the Himalayan foothills, it rises and enhances the seasonal northward flow of humid monsoon winds, forcing moisture and hot air up the slopes of the mountain range."

56 of 336 comments (clear)

  1. !millions by should_be_linear · · Score: 2, Informative

    continent's mightiest rivers, on which millions of people depend for their water supplies.

    It is more like hundreds of millions.

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    839*929
    1. Re:!millions by ShadowRangerRIT · · Score: 2, Funny

      Hundreds of millions is millions you know. Don't be such a pedant.

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    2. Re:!millions by iamapizza · · Score: 5, Funny

      And millions is thousands and thousands is hundreds. They might as well take it further and just say "on which dozens of people depend for their water supplies. "

      --
      Always proofread carefully to see if you any words out.
    3. Re:!millions by Inner_Child · · Score: 4, Funny

      Oh come on, even Americans know there are more than two people in India! There are at least four doing tech support alone! Unless 'Jeff', 'Brian', 'Mike', and 'Tim' are all the same person...

      --
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  2. Re:Some nice backpedaling there, bud by ShadowRangerRIT · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Feeding a lame troll, but the source of soot is the same source as the CO2. So we're still solving the same problem. And they've already noted that the melting in the Himalayas is abnormally fast, but that doesn't change the fact that all the glaciers are melting, if "only" half as fast as the Himalayas.

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  3. Uh oh by JustOK · · Score: 2, Funny

    How long until the Abominable Smog Man evolves?

    --
    rewriting history since 2109
  4. "massive brown cloud visible from space" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    ...which links to a god damn diagram, not an actual picture from space of a massive brown cloud. Way to fail submitter.

  5. great satelite image by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    i wasn't sure to believe until i saw the proof:

    http://www.nsf.gov/news/mmg/media/images/himalayan_glaciers_h.jpg

  6. Should not be a surprise by drinkypoo · · Score: 3, Informative

    We have already noticed problems with soot. In fact I recall reading books about terraforming where soot was sprinkled on an ice cap, so the idea is pretty old.

    --
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    1. Re:Should not be a surprise by ArcherB · · Score: 2, Insightful

      We have already noticed problems with soot. In fact I recall reading books about terraforming where soot was sprinkled on an ice cap, so the idea is pretty old.

      The article you are referring to is HERE. It was in response to Global Cooling, which as we all know was false and THANK GOD we didn't do anything about it. Regardless of our arrogance back then, science in the 70's was no where near where it is today. If we had acted on our ignorant assumptions, it surely would have led to an enormous disaster today.

      I wonder what we'll be saying about Global Warming in 35 years.

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    2. Re:Should not be a surprise by ArcherB · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Fortunately, we did do something about the scattered theories and reports of global cooling in the 60s and 70s. We put more money into climate science to find out what was really happening.

      Yes, because THIS time, we are right. All those other times, we were wrong. So, give us $40,000,000,000,000/yr, control of your lives and we'll fix it for ya.

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    3. Re:Should not be a surprise by zippthorne · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Is.. isn't...

      Either way, Many of us are already doing our part regardless while continuing to be skeptical. I, myself, have reduced my carbon footprint to a mere fraction of one of the more prominent GW-action advocates, former US vice president Al Gore, Jr! That includes all of the goods and services I consume as well, and I did it all without buying any bullshit "carbon offset" scams.

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    4. Re:Should not be a surprise by ArcherB · · Score: 4, Informative

      In any case, while I'm inclined to agree with climate researchers who are experts in their field and have formulated their models on the scientific method, which is itself based on rational thought...

      First, "scientific method" involves welcoming peer review of your work. As we now know, many of the leading climatologists working in AGW research have refused to publish their work in scientific journals that post criticism of their work.

      Would you listen to Khabibullo Abdusamatov, mathematician and astronomer at Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences? He said:

      "Global warming results not from the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, but from an unusually high level of solar radiation and a lengthy – almost throughout the last century – growth in its intensity...Ascribing 'greenhouse' effect properties to the Earth's atmosphere is not scientifically substantiated...Heated greenhouse gases, which become lighter as a result of expansion, ascend to the atmosphere only to give the absorbed heat away."

      How about Richard Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and member of the National Academy of Sciences:

      "We are quite confident (1) that global mean temperature is about 0.5 C higher than it was a century ago; (2) that atmospheric levels of CO2 have risen over the past two centuries; and (3) that CO2 is a greenhouse gas whose increase is likely to warm the earth (one of many, the most important being water vapor and clouds). But – and I cannot stress this enough – we are not in a position to confidently attribute past climate change to CO2 or to forecast what the climate will be in the future... [T]here has been no question whatsoever that CO2 is an infrared absorber (i.e., a greenhouse gas – albeit a minor one), and its increase should theoretically contribute to warming. Indeed, if all else were kept equal, the increase in CO2 should have led to somewhat more warming than has been observed."

      Oh, and $40 trillion was a global figure from HERE:

      This finding was based on a groundbreaking research paper by renowned climate economist Professor Richard Tol, who showed that a high, global CO2 tax starting at 68 dollars could reduce world GDP by a staggering 12.9 percent in 2100—the equivalent of 40 trillion dollars a year – costing many times the expected damage of global warming.

      Or do you consider the work of 5 Nobel laureates to be credible?

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    5. Re:Should not be a surprise by ScentCone · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Lindzen is paid by the fossil fuel industry. Not credible as a researcher

      Ah. And someone who is paid by anyone but them, including by entities that expressly want to see them destroyed, are, of course, entirely neutral and without any agenda whatsoever.

      Taxes do not reduce GDP. After all, that money has to go somewhere

      Are you that obtuse? Taxes suppress the activities that are taxed. People do less of the thing that is taxed. If that thing is "commerce with each other," then that's exactly what you get less of. Conversely, when you lower taxes on things like ... starting businesses or hiring people, you get (demonstrably, over and over again) more of those exact things. Raise taxes on cigarettes? You get less smoking. Raise taxes on luxury goods? The market drifts to those products that are just under whatever threshold you've capriciously set as "luxury."

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    6. Re:Should not be a surprise by ScentCone · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Climate scientists don't have a political agenda to "make life painful for businesses".

      Just like the scientists who are asked by an energy company to study something don't have an agenda to kill polar bears... despite what people doubting their credibility seem to continually imply. Right? Hmmm?

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    7. Re:Should not be a surprise by ArcherB · · Score: 2, Insightful

      False analogy. Those hired by an energy company do have an interest in findings which support the energy company's bottom line, namely that no restrictions on fossil fuel use are necessary. Whether polar bears are killed are incidental to that.

      So, what you are saying is:
      Those hired by politicians via governmental grants do have an interest in findings which support the politicians expansion of power via energy regulation, namely those that control the people and businesses that use energy and the ability to decide which entities the restrictions should apply. Whether businesses are killed are incidental to that.

      If it works one way, it works the other way as well. You can't discredit scientists who work for oil companies who have something to gain unless you discredit scientists who work for governments that have something to gain. That would pretty much eliminate every University, the IPCC and any other UN body.

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      There is no "I disagree" mod for a reason. Flamebait, Troll, and Overrated are not substitutes.
    8. Re:Should not be a surprise by ArcherB · · Score: 2, Informative

      Yes, I believe we've had this discussion before. If not with you, I've had with someone else. Now, who is National Science Foundation? Or to be more accurate, who makes up the National Science Board? The list can be found HERE. Surely these guys are not biased. Surely their daytime jobs would not be affected by AGW research, right? Let's look at a member, shall we?

      Dan E. Arvizu became the eighth Director of the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) on January 15, 2005. NREL, located in Golden, Colorado, is the Department of Energy's primary laboratory for energy efficiency and renewable energy research and development. NREL is operated for DOE by Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC (Alliance). He is President of Alliance and also is an Executive Vice President with the Midwest Research Institute, headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.

      Hmmm... Director of the US Dept of Energy's Renewable Energy Laboratory. Gee, I wonder what would happen to his funding if we found out that AGW is not really a problem. I wonder what his views are concerning giving grants to those that seek to disprove the current "consensus" of AGW.

      How about this guy?

      G. Wayne Clough has been a member of the faculty at Duke University, Stanford University, Virginia Tech, and the University of Washington. At Virginia Tech, he served as Head of the Department of Civil Engineering and as Dean of the College of Engineering. In 1993, he was appointed Provost and Vice President of Academic Affairs at the University of Washington, and in 1994 he became Georgia Tech's tenth president. In 2008 he was appointed the 12th Secretary of the Smithsonian Institution.

      Hmmmm. The Smithsonian Institute? What do they have to do with Global Warming? Surely, they can be a non-biased source, right? Let's see.

      Within the Smithsonian Institution, global change research is conducted at the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, the National Air and Space Museum, the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, the National Museum of Natural History, the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, and the National Zoological Park. Research is organized around themes of atmospheric processes, ecosystem dynamics, observing natural and anthropogenic environmental change on daily to decadal time scales, and defining longer term climate proxies present in the historical artifacts and records of the museums as well as in the geologic record at field sites. The Smithsonian Institution program strives to improve knowledge of the natural processes involved in global climate change, to provide a long-term repository of climate-relevant research materials for present and future studies, and to bring this knowledge to various audiences, ranging from scholarly to the lay public. The unique contribution of the Smithsonian Institution is a long-term perspective; for example, undertaking investigations that may require extended study before producing useful results and conducting observations on sufficiently long (e.g., decadal) time scales to resolve human-caused modification of natural variability.

      Well, crap. How about a meteorologist. Surely one can be non-biased. How about this guy. Surely, he has no vested interest in government money going to AGW research:

      He also directs the Sasaki Institute, which is a non-profit organization at the University of Oklahoma that fosters the development and application of knowledge, policy, and advanced technology for the mutual benefit of the government, academic and private sectors.

      Well, there you have it. I'm not saying that all the members are biased, but here are three that deal with AGW. Many of the others are professors of health, philosophy, communications and other none climate disciplines.

      So, yeah, it appears that the NSB, the part of the NSF that directs funding, is quite biased toward research that supports AGW and have jobs that are threatened by research that may disprove AGW.

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      There is no "I disagree" mod for a reason. Flamebait, Troll, and Overrated are not substitutes.
  7. Wow - a new low of spin-doctoring by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    'Black soot is probably responsible for as much as half of the glacial melt, and greenhouse gases are responsible for the rest.'

    Becomes:

    Now Live Science reports that tiny particles of pollution known as 'black carbon' — and not heat-trapping greenhouse gases (...)

    Quite shameless. I am almost impressed by the gall of the submitter...

  8. here we have a nugget of scientific observation by circletimessquare · · Score: 5, Insightful

    underneath we will have a shitstorm of politically biased comments

    so i offer a third option, to climate change doubters and climate change believers:

    1. who fucking cares whose fault it is

    political recrimination gets us nowhere. its cold in the house because someone left the window open? ok, so you're going to sit there and scream at each other over who opened the window? here's a new idea: how about someone demonstrating actual responsibility and instead actually stand the fuck up, walk over, and close the fucking window: NO MATTER WHO LEFT IT OPEN

    2. who fucking cares if we are heating up or cooling down or not changing

    the fact is, we live here, and we are interested in controlling the thermostat. if it gets too cold, do something to turn it up. if it gets to hot, do something to turn it down. we are homo sapiens, this what we do: we do not adapt to our environment, we adapt our environment to us. we do not grow fur, we make clothes. we do not enter torpor at midday, we invent air conditioning

    if you say we shouldn't mess with the weather, you are by extension denying the fact that we already are having an effect on the climate. so we might as well get involved with twiddling with the environment ON PURPOSE, because the notion that 6.5 billion humans can magically have no effect at all is a completely absurd premise on your part

    this environmental attitude is the engineer's approach. fuck all of you capitalists, politicians, activists and hysterical whiners. the engineer will prevail here, because only we have the solution to what the rest of you simply bicker about

    we need scientifically, factually sound well-researched methods for forcing change on our planet on purpose. and then we'll fix your fucking problem. something like seeding the dead zones of the ocean with iron

    lets put it this way: make believe, for the moment, for the sake of argument, regardless of your beliefs, that

    1. the earth is actually heating up
    2. it is doing so because of nature, not man-made reasons

    ok, well what are we supposed to do, just accept rising sea levels, melting glaciers and the sahara desert growing 25%?

    no, we artificially introduce methods for cooling the earth down. we do this, #1, for selfish reasons, but also for #2: a preservation of current species and ecosystems, as a side effect. are you going to let the amazon dry up because you don't like the idea of man fiddling with the environment?

    yes, the planet could continue to evolve new species without human intervention. but what is really going to happen is that this planet is going to become a museum, under human supervision, of the current catalog of species and ecosystems that have evolved so far. why? because we want to fucking live here, that's why

    so, for the deniers in opposition to supposition #1 above: if you don't believe the earth is heating up, you still have to admit the earth has had historic swings in climate, and that we earthlings will have to intervene at some point, correct?

    and for the believers in man-made change in opposition to supposition #2 above: you believe that climate change is caused by man, you have to admit that to fix the problem we have to do it PROACTIVELY. please don't try to sell me the moronic bullshit that 6.5 billion humans can live on this planet like ghosts. this is a different kind of denial than those who deny climate change, but no less foolish

    imagine that: no pointless recriminations and blame games, no living in denial and sticking your head in the sand

    commence with the retarded partisan bickering anyway. meanwhile, us engineers will roll up our sleeves and will actually go and fix your fucking problem while you political assholes do nothing but bicker

    more action, less "hot air"

    --
    intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
    1. Re:here we have a nugget of scientific observation by vadim_t · · Score: 3, Interesting

      1. who fucking cares whose fault it is

      political recrimination gets us nowhere. its cold in the house because someone left the window open?

      Bad example. It's not who left the window open, it's determining that the problem is an open window, as opposed to for instance running the air conditioner in winter. Because fixing the problem the right way (closing the window, or shutting down the AC) is much easier than doing it the wrong way (adding heaters for instance).

      If the problem is too much CO2, then it's very possible the easiest fix is to reduce the amount of CO2 instead of starting some sort of planet-wide engineering project.

      2. who fucking cares if we are heating up or cooling down or not changing

      How is your engineer going to fix the problem without knowing what it is? The solutions to "too cold", "too hot", and "not changing when it should" are different. And depending on the amount of change the scale of your engineering project is going to change quite a lot.

    2. Re:here we have a nugget of scientific observation by spafbi · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Wow... here, have some Prozac. I've often wondered why folks on Slashdot... Nevermind. I was just about to start ranting about how folks here on Slashdot rant as if they're actually going to change someone else's opinion.

    3. Re:here we have a nugget of scientific observation by louks · · Score: 2

      I do have a couple of small problems with your comments, let's begin:

      here we have a nugget of scientific observation

      Well, we actually have TWO scientific observations that form a single inference, which if you remember your scientific method, is still capable of being fallible. I'm not making a statement either way on this one, just reminding you that this article is about an inference, not an observation.

      political recrimination gets us nowhere. its cold in the house because someone left the window open? ok, so you're going to sit there and scream at each other over who opened the window? here's a new idea: how about someone demonstrating actual responsibility and instead actually stand the fuck up, walk over, and close the fucking window: NO MATTER WHO LEFT IT OPEN

      OK, there's something here with which I agree, and something that bothers me about the current political climate. What the recent Copenhagen conference taught us was that, if we are all living in the same house, then it's OK for the "kids" to leave windows open because the "adults" are going to be adjusting the thermostat to compensate. The adults will also pay the now much higher utility bill, because the kids don't make as much money, and they do get chores done around the house the adults don't have time to get done, or are beneath them. The problem is, the adults don't like the fact that, because the kids' bedroom window is open, it's raining in the house and the carpet is getting ruined. But the adults still won't make the kids close their bedroom window, which is causing most of the thermostat problem anyway. Which leaves the adults going deep into debt to add expensive and complex add-ons to the adults' rooms in order to save on their utility bills...but it'll cost 10 years worth of utility bills to install the add-ons, and only saves 10% a month. Did I mention that the kids are complaining about the smell from the carpet, and that they'd like to sleep in the adults' room?

      commence with the retarded partisan bickering anyway. meanwhile, us engineers will roll up our sleeves and will actually go and fix your fucking problem while you political assholes do nothing but bicker

      more action, less "hot air"

      Engineers will never be able to truly fix the problem, because a design can only work if it's implemented, and we have to convince the money man who, by the way, is VERY political, to make it happen. It's why communication is such an important part of the engineering curriculum...we have to be able to talk to various and diverse types of people to solve a problem. Think about how many "Ask Slashdot" articles involve how to properly provide the "hot air" to get the boss to sign off on an action...

    4. Re:here we have a nugget of scientific observation by argStyopa · · Score: 2, Interesting

      "ok, well what are we supposed to do, just accept rising sea levels, melting glaciers and the sahara desert growing 25%?"

      Yep. Like much in real life, you accept it, deal with it, and move on.

      How many problems (environmental, for example) have been made WORSE by someone just trying to do "something" (for dogmatic or political reasons) without understanding the how, the why, or the details?

      Ultimately, no, I really DON'T care.
      Oh no, the glaciers are melting...does that affect me? Nope.
      Oh no, the polar bears have no ice to live on! Do I care? Nope, I'd guess they're going to go back to being, well, plain old bears.
      Oh no, sea levels are rising! Maybe people shouldn't have gotten terribly comfortable living in marginal habitats (ie below sea level) in the first place? Here's a tip: extend the timeline far enough, and ALL HUMAN CONSTRUCTS (including cities) have a survival chance of zero. Get over it.
      Oh no it's getting warmer/cooler: First, I'm not going to notice a degree or three in my lifetime. And if the storms get worse or it gets wetter or drier? Meh, I'll deal with it. Humans are THE most adaptable creatures on the planet, we'll get through it.

      What I certainly WON'T do is to allow a politically-motivated silver-spoon has-been failed politico to 'motivate' any of my actions whatsoever. I will not listen to the crying whines of 'the sky is falling' from a cadre of hippies, ivory-tower academics, and politicians that have been saying the SAME THING* since 1972. Read the Boy Who Cried Wolf, and get back to me; I'm well aware that eventually, he might be right and there might indeed eventually BE a wolf, but I'm willing to risk it just to be able to tune you out.
      * replace 'anthropogenic global warming' with other crises as needed: food, land, fresh water, nuclear winter, radiation, overpopulation, extinctions, etc.

      The climate changes. If it's anthropogenic, I DON'T CARE. If that's the price we pay to have cell phones, cars, and internet porn, I'm cool with that.

      I swear to god that the first time Caveman A invented cooked meat, whiny Cavegirl B said "don't eat that, you'll get carcinogens!"

      --
      -Styopa
  9. Re:Some nice backpedaling there, bud by zz5555 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    This is pretty old news. I think I've seen reports of this at least as far back as 2003. But it's estimated that this effect is only 25% of global warming. Green house gases are most of the rest. And, yes, it doesn't necessarily take a huge increase in global temperatures to get the glaciers melting.

  10. Re:Some nice backpedaling there, bud by Nutria · · Score: 2, Insightful

    So we're still solving the same problem.

    But filtering soot by adding smokestack scrubbers (which 1st world countries started doing many decades ago) is a heck of a lot cheaper and less disruptive than destroying the world economy to eliminate CO2.

    --
    "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
  11. Re:Prehistoric water reserves? by ShadowRangerRIT · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I believe they're supposed to act as a buffer. They accumulate water during the wet season, and release it during the dry, in roughly equal amounts. If they melt faster than they accrete, then you get more water during the dry season for a while (while the glaciers are close to their original size), then it starts to taper off as the increased melting is offset by the lesser amount of ice. Eventually, the glaciers are reduced to virtually nil, and you get little or nothing after that.

    --
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  12. Re:ZOMG! Global warming is wrong! by Nutria · · Score: 2, Informative

    The right wingers will surely use this as "proof" that global warming is wrong.

    AGW skeptics have known about Asian black soot for 2-3 years. (It's also been found in Arctic pack ice and in the Colorado Rockies.)

    I'm just glad that the "mainstream" has finally "noticed" it.

    --
    "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
  13. Re:Prehistoric water reserves? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

    Galciers are essentially a water battery. There is very heavy seasonal precipitation high in the mountains. This precipitation becomes glacier ice, which slides downward and melts.
    The sliding process and melting however happens perennial, and thus turns high seasonal percipitation into a dependable perennial water source. Without glaciers, all the water simply comes gushing downhill - which can be very damaging on its own, and leaves the people without a dependable water source for the rest of the year.

    There are two possibilities how a glacier can "die" - either the yearly precipitation dries up (therefore, melted ice is not replenished), or the temperature gets warmer and the "melting zone" goes up the mountain, ultimately leaving no glacier. We observe the latter across the globe.

  14. Re:Some nice backpedaling there, bud by ShadowRangerRIT · · Score: 4, Insightful

    You haven't addressed the secondary issue; that the melting in the Himalayas is only doubled by the soot, not caused by it. And the scrubbers would have little to no effect on glacier melt in the rest of the world. And that "destroying the world economy" is a politically motivated, short sighted conclusion. Most of the reasonable forecasts show it "dragging" the economy down by about 1-3% of the "GWP" (Gross World Product). The economic doomsday types like to discount the possibility that the cost of oil will increase much beyond the rate of inflation, as if the entire world can start living like Americans (or even Western Europeans) without drastically increasing the price of oil.

    --
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  15. Satellite Imagery by Jeremy+Erwin · · Score: 4, Interesting
    1. Re:Satellite Imagery by Low+Ranked+Craig · · Score: 2, Interesting

      But wait. I thought the problem was solely the responsibility of the US. Now I'm confused.

      --
      I still cannot find the droids I am looking for...
  16. Re:Some nice backpedaling there, bud by Nutria · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Cry me a river about lost corporate profits.

    Says he who doesn't realize that Eeeeevil Corporate Profits are what

    1. keep us warm (even state-run electrical plants buy their coal/gas from private companies),
    2. dry (unless you're Amish and built your own house),
    3. clothed (unless, again, you are Amish and your wife makes all your clothes),
    4. fed (unless you grow all your own food),
    5. using a computer (how many governments build their own computers?),
    6. on-line (even if you use a state-run ISP,
    7. transoceanic fiber was laid by private companies), and
    8. (usually) employed.

    Or are you too young to remember why the Iron Curtain fell, and why so many (non-union) citizens welcomed (nay, screamed for) government privatization: government bureaucracies do an absolutely suck-ass job of providing services.

    --
    "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
  17. Re:Some nice backpedaling there, bud by oldspewey · · Score: 2, Interesting

    we aren't seeing the massive deluge that was predicted

    Can you just help me out real quick and post a few links to these predictions of a deluge?

    Much appreciated.

    --
    If libertarians are so opposed to effective government, why don't they all move to Somalia?
  18. Shoddy PR at work by Qbertino · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The linked diagramm is a dead giveaway that this is more of a PR stunt than usefull scientific research. No matter what the verdict, fact is: we are putting to much polution into the atmosphere and we need to stop. That's a fact, and no lobbying otherwise will change it.

    --
    We suffer more in our imagination than in reality. - Seneca
  19. we have in our power right now by circletimessquare · · Score: 2, Interesting

    the ability to plunge the entire planet into winter: just detonate all of our nuclear warheads

    we won't do that. i'm simply countering your supposition that the earth is large and we are small. we WERE once so small as you believe. we aren't anymore

    we're simply not going to accept the next ice age or the next sahara age. we're going to actively prevent it. when the amazon is drying up, and the taiga is melting, and the streets of london and shanghai are as venice, we will find the industrial, scientific and political willpower to oppose that

    simply because massive ecosystem change will imperil billions on this planet and their economic well-being. we will therefore assemble to resist climate change. this is what we do: we are homo sapiens. we do not adapt to nature. nature adapts to us

    if you don't understand or believe we have the power to alter our ecosystem, or that for some reason we won't alter our climate when climate change threatens us, manmade or natural, then you are in some sort of serious denial about what kind of creature we really are

    --
    intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
  20. Not a new Phenominon by Breccia · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Back in 1970, at Resolute Bay in the Canadian high arctic, I had a discussion with two scientists about global warming -- back then, the Arctic Ocean had increased in temperature by 2.7 degrees over the previous 40 years!!! One identified mechanism was soot from the atmosphere, a byproduct of combustion and to a lesser extent, volcanic ash. The amount of energy it takes to raise the temperature of an entire ocean by this amount is staggering...

    This soot reduces the albedo of the snow and ice, resulting in less incident energy being reflected back into space and the unreflected energy raising the local temperature.

    For anyone who cares to look, "global warming" is a function of very many causes creating a frightening synergy, greenhouse gasses though probably being the main culprit.

  21. Re:Some nice backpedaling there, bud by jonnat · · Score: 3, Informative

    So when we see scientists trying to come up with excuses for why ice packs are melting without a huge increase in global temperatures, we need to question both their motives and their data.

    A few simple points that are (surprisingly, still) worth mentioning. Scientists are not coming up with "excuses" for the melting of ice packs. They are observing it and developing explanations based on models. You may personally believe that the melting of ice packs would require "huge" (conveniently unquantified) temperature increases to happen, but I'm willing to bet you personal beliefs in this matter are not based on rigorous observation and mechanistic explanations of the system. The questioning of the data used by scientists to come up with the said explanations has to be addressed in an individual basis. I'm certainly supportive that not only data from global warming research, but all publicly funded research be openly available, but it is utterly naive to think that the all conclusions presented in published peer-reviewed articles would not be supported if these data were available (and it's deceptive, at the least, to question their conclusions without even knowing their contents). The questioning of the motives of the scientific community to fabricate the conclusion of ice packs melting due to anthropogenic climate change is, in my opinion, one of the weakest arguments of denialists. Conspiracy theories abound, but no one seems to find the underlying motives that lead this entire scientific community to take on the daunting task of misleading the world's population, while doing it under the public's scrutiny and very aptly covering its tracks. Staging the moon-landing is child's play compared to this.

    Yes, we can see oceanic water levels rising *in certain localized areas*, but we aren't seeing the massive deluge that was predicted.

    Hopefully we can finally put to bed the reality of global warming and focus on the real problem of global pollution.

    How on Earth the oceanic water levels will rise *in certain localized areas* is beyond me. Unless your theory accounts for a substantial increase in oceanic water viscosity as well, although that might explain why the current rises in ocean levels have failed to meet your expectations. And, according to recent EPA definitions, the problem of global warming caused by CO2 emissions *is* "the real problem of global pollution".

    Incidentally, everyone is naturally entitled to their opinions, but I prefer anthropogenic global warming denialism when it's devoid of blatant logical inconsistencies.

  22. lol by circletimessquare · · Score: 2, Interesting

    "And if solar cycles are the cause, there's not a darn thing humans can do about it except adapt."

    you really believe that?

    if climate change threatens our economic well being, you rest assured that century or two of focused scientific innovation and politically supported engineering and industrial policies will, without a doubt, counteract natural changes, like a cooling or a heating solar cycle cause

    nuclear detonations at volcanic regions to cool things down under cloud cover (study factual little ice ages after massive historical volcanic eruptions in man's historical written record)

    purposeful amping up of CO2 output to greenhouse effect heat things up

    there's all sorts of things we can do

    we have amazing technological abilities compared to just a century ago, nevermind what powers we will discover in another century or two

    in 2 or 3 centuries, this entire planet will have a micromanaged climate, if civilization doesn't break down. then the issue will be political bickering between, for example, morocco wishing to do away with more sahara so it can can grow more crops, while brazil says this costs them money to counteract the related drying up of the amazon due to morocco's efforts. we already see this sort of environmental bickering between nations over the damming and controlling of rivers that cross national boundaries

    lets put it this way: our ancestors would be in amazed awe at our ability to completely redirect an entire river if we wanted to, and as we frequently do in today's world. but ancient man, in looking at the hard work of beavers, would not think it in the realm of the impossible for us to do that one day

    likewise, today, looking at how past volcanic eruptions have led to mini-ice ages, i, like ancient man before me looking at beavers, see that future micromanaging of our climate is not impossible, and will be someday a mundane matter-of-fact effort, like garbage disposal and plumbing

    you just lack imagination and perception

    --
    intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
  23. Re:Some nice backpedaling there, bud by oldspewey · · Score: 2, Insightful

    My eyes must be playing tricks on me because I can't seem to find the sections in those links that discuss massive sea level rise occurring by 2009. Since you wrote "we aren't seeing the massive deluge that was predicted" I have to assume you weren't referring to predictions of sea level rise by 2100 (as referenced in the second of your two links) but sea level rise that would be observable today.

    --
    If libertarians are so opposed to effective government, why don't they all move to Somalia?
  24. Re:ZOMG! Global warming is wrong! by zz5555 · · Score: 2, Informative

    And the proponents of AGW have known about this for at least 6 years. And it was (as I recall) in the "mainstream" back then, if I recall correctly.

  25. Re:Some nice backpedaling there, bud by MickyTheIdiot · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Corporations != the free market. I am not in favor of communism, I am in favor of taking power away from huge corporations and reducing their role in government.

  26. Re:Some nice backpedaling there, bud by DarenN · · Score: 4, Informative

    Calling it melting is prejudicial (because it implies melting due to warming), it's termed glacial retreat and in most cases, there are valid reasons for this not associated with "Global Warming". For instance, the glaciers on Kilimanjaro are retreating because the rain forest at the bottom was destroyed which drastically reduced the amount of precipitation on the mountain's slopes. Less precipitation == less liquid to freeze, so the water lost to the summer temperatures was simply not replaced.

    Interestingly, the cost of replacing the stoves causing the Himalayan pollution (it is believed that most of the soot is not from large scale generation, but from household stoves - individually they're not that significant, but there's a hell of a lot of people in that part of the world) has been estimated at $15 billion. This seems like a good use of resources to me, rather than fantasy schemes like cap and trade.

    --
    Rational thought is the only true freedom
  27. Re:Some nice backpedaling there, bud by DarenN · · Score: 2, Informative

    Hear, hear!

    The sea level rises mentioned in the IPCC reports are measured in centimeters over decades in the worst case scenarios, which isn't exactly the end of the world.
    Measurements (i.e. the instrumental record) of sea levels is 1.1mm per year steady for the last 20 years. The real dangers of melting glaciers is the effect of (probably localised) changes in the salinity of the water damaging ecosystems.

    For myself, bollocks to "doom!" and "end of the world" predictions associated with climate change. The real issue with carbon dioxide production is the acidification of the oceans, and the increase in plankton and algae associated with the increase in CO2. Fish are an important part of the diet for many people all over the world, and we've done well from the ocean's bounty over the years.

    --
    Rational thought is the only true freedom
  28. mod parent up by circletimessquare · · Score: 2, Interesting

    the link says it all

    there are engineers who get stuff done, and there are whining ignorant morons who take up space. that's pretty much the entire human race

    technical universities: start assembling the geoengineering major programs of study now, to get a jump on the upcoming scholastic trend

    liberal arts universities: start a program on reality tv programs. pffft

    --
    intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
  29. Re:Some nice backpedaling there, bud by Nutria · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I am in favor of taking power away from huge corporations and reducing their role in government.

    As am I, but in a globally-connected world I see this as a prisoners' dilemma: all countries must do it together, or some countries corporations will gain the advantage.

    And that's not even counting countries like the PRC, where most large corps are owned by the gov't (usually in the form of the PLA) and thus want these companies to have a lot of power...

    --
    "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
  30. Re:ZOMG! Global warming is wrong! by rickb928 · · Score: 2, Informative

    If this was presented as a pollution problem, you could get the right-wingers on board. After all, Edmund Muskie sponsored the Clean Water Act in 1971, and despite Nixon's veto it was overrriden and became law. Republican members pretty much have supported it. When the EPA gets back to pollution control, they will find many right-wingers willing to support these efforts.

    Sadly, they will also find many right- and left-wingers unwilling to pretend that any pollution controls within the U.S. will solve any significant global pollution problems. The developing countries will resist joining in, as it will raise costs and diminish growth, and China is quite literally a black hole of pollution with no intention of limiting growth or raising costs to even halt the increases, much less reduce.

    In a way, we are entering a perfect storm of globalization, massive industrial development, fossil fuels as a
    cheap path to industrial prosperity, and the attendant rise in global pollution and genuine climate impact. CO2 is not so much of a problem as particulates, but it is much easier to sell punishing the developed countries rather than set new standards and prevent the avalance of underdeveloped countries spewing so much more. China will eclipse the US in this impact, if they haven't already, and we have no prospects of limiting their spew. Africa is next, and more is the pity, since Africa could be a miraculous eco-economy if they could bear to live a little below their industial potential and stop killing one another so wantonly. South American is well on its way to completely developing their lands, with the requisite loss of habitat and forest. We may one day realize that the deforestation of the Amazon did more to ruin Earth than every car and coal power plant ever built. And there are other forests under attack.

    If were only so simple, but this global problem is not being addressed globally yet. And I see little hope for it to be so any time soon. Many developing countries want to 'get theirs', and get it now, figuring they can get the developed countries to either give up theirs, or fix it in technology. We might be able to, but probably not, unless it is a truly global solution. And there is no forum to discuss this honestly, so it will continue.

    --
    deleting the extra space after periods so i can stay relevant, yeah.
  31. Re:Some nice backpedaling there, bud by gothzilla · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Here's where common sense disappears completely. The ONLY power a corporation has comes as a result of YOU buying their products. If you don't want them to have power stop buying their stuff.

    You won't do that though, because you cannot live without the conveniences they provide for you, but keep crying a river about people having money and power YOU voluntarily gave to them. If you truly hated corporations then you would change your lifestyle to one not completely dependent on them.

    How about not electing government officials that take bribes from corporations? You can't blame corporations for the actions of politicians.

    Your hate of corporations is ill-founded.

  32. this type of response always amused me by circletimessquare · · Score: 2, Insightful

    that is, a post that has to loudly and voluminously announce how much they don't care

    paraphrasing shakespeare: methinks the lady doth protest too much

    hey, genius, if you didn't care... YOU WOULDN'T POST

    proof of not caring is not commenting, not being here

    there really are people who don't care about this debate. those people are playing videogames or twiddling on facebook right now. if they saw this thread, they wouldn't even roll their eyes (too much caring in that effort), they'd just click away, truly uninterested. meanwhile, you: you're deep in a thread writing a large comment about how much you don't care. no one is holding a gun to your head to post a comment, friend

    fact: if you comment, emotionally, voluminously, AND WITH ALL CAPS, you obviously fucking care

    --
    intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
  33. Global Warming may be (less than correct)? by dtjohnson · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Thoughtful people are slowly, slowly awakening to the idea that the climate alarmists predicting doom for the planet's climate may be less than completely right. Previously, the melting of the himalayan glaciers was positively, definitely, absolutely, without doubt, guaranteed attributable 100 percent to the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. The simple fact is that nothing technical that supports the AGW theory that the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration from "pre-industrial" levels to the current level has caused (or even contributed to) any measurable amount of planetary warming. Similarly, there is nothing to support the popular idea that some arbitrary co2 concentration is necessary to maintain our current planetary climate conditions. Our current knowledge of the things that might affect the Earth's climate, and the magnitude of their effect, is primitive, and dominated scientifically by the equivalent of 15th-century flat-earthers. Go to the NSIDC (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/) website and read their 'news and analysis' to see how they spin every little uptick in the arctic ice cover. Would you trust agenda-driven people like that to tell the unvarnished scientific truth about...anything? They are the technical equivalent of eugenics people excavating an african anthropological site. If the Earth's climate continues to cool (as it has for the last two years) they will keep spinning it as validation of their models, right up until their funding dries up and they have to pull the power plug on their computer and website. Anyone (Al Gore comes to mind) who claims to know all, or even any, of the answers to global climate change is being blatantly dishonest. It was hysterically funny to see record low temperatures and snow visit Copenhagen at the same time that planetary leaders were meeting there to discuss global warming.

  34. Re:That's trivially true for EVERYTHING by Curunir_wolf · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Corporations != the free market. There was capitalism before we became the corporate state we (the U.S.) are now.

    But free market --> Corporations IOW capitalism kills itself. Thanks for admitting that.

    You missed a step or two. Free market --> government intervention --> Corporations --> more government intervention --> Fascism.

    And another comparison you may want to think about: decentralizing government --> more freedom vs. centralizing government --> tyranny.

    --
    "Somebody has to do something. It's just incredibly pathetic it has to be us."
    --- Jerry Garcia
  35. Re:Some nice backpedaling there, bud by blueg3 · · Score: 2, Informative

    The primary dangers in sea-level rise are "tipping points" (a term I, for some reason, dislike) -- sharp nonlinear transitions. The simple progression of sea level rise gives you very little sea level rise, but if you cross a threshold where a lot of land-bound ice melts over a period of time, you can suddenly (in the climatological/geological sense of "suddenly") get substantial ocean rise.

    The IPCC reports correctly point out that there are quite a few potentially negative tipping points (and a few positive ones) that we may be approaching, but predicting what exactly will happen with them is extremely difficult. The major risk they present is in their unpredictability. Even the IPCC "worst-case" scenarios are not actually worse-case, because they (rightly) do not include these unpredictable transitions.

  36. Re:Mixed markets more sustainable, stable by Curunir_wolf · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The market crash was caused by government intervention and the policies of the Federal Reserve. Try again.

    --
    "Somebody has to do something. It's just incredibly pathetic it has to be us."
    --- Jerry Garcia
  37. Re:More liberal propaganda by Rei · · Score: 2, Informative

    You mean like this?

    Oh, and as for soot: while it may be news here, it was widely covered by the IPCC. See AR4 WG1 Ch. 2 Sec 2.5.4, "Radiative Forcing by Anthropogenic Surface Albedo Change: Black Carbon in Snow and Ice". They cite five different papers. Evidence for forcing is classified as "B" (moderate), consensus "3", (insufficient consensus), level of scientific understanding is "Low". In the next IPCC report, given the sizable number of papers that have come out since that, that'll probably be bumped up to "A", '2", "Moderate", and the net forcing contribution will probably be bumped up to about 0.5 W/m^2 (out of ~2.6 net and ~1.7 for CO2).

    --
    Nobody pushes buttons like our bunny. Big red buttons with labels that say "IGNITION", apparently.
  38. Re:Irration exuberance ie markets fatal flaw... by Curunir_wolf · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Yeah the bankers choosing the wrong algorithms to calculate risk on derivatives, a speculative real estate bubble, and no background check loans for houses had nothing to do with the crash right Curunir wolf?

    All activities encouraged by government regulations, and backed up by risk mitigation such as Freddie, Fannie, and the Greenspan put

    Note these actions were all chosen freely by market actors with no government coercion involved whatsoever.

    Not true. At all.

    I'm sure you understand how the CRA encouraged high-risk mortgage lending. Department of Housing and Urban Development set targets for Fannie and Freddie in 1992 to purchase low-income loans for sale into the secondary market that eventually reached this number: 52 percent of loans given to low-to moderate-income families. With that to back them up, and no consequences for brokering loans that couldn't be paid back, it's no wonder too many bad loans were made.

    Add to that regulations that allowed banks greater leverage for government-backed loans. You understand fractional reserve banking, right? Well the government passed regulations that allowed banks to maintain less reserves for having significant amounts of their reserves in the form of government-backed mortgage loans. Add to this the Fed maintaining artificially low interest rates, the knowledge that any failure will be met with bailouts, and you have a perfect storm of government regulation encouraging house-of-cards behavior.

    Even the Libertarians big hero Alan Greenspan admitted there was a "flaw," after the crash, look it up if you don't believe me.

    Really? Greenspan is the hero of the Libertarians? News to me. I've never liked that party, though.

    The problem with conservative Libertarians is you guys are all about responsibility until *you guys* fuck up, and then guess what, it's the "gubmints" fault. How about banksters and real estate agents looking in the mirror and manning up about a serious screw up? Too bad tax payers were left holding the bag on that one,

    Wait - first, as mentioned, I'm not a Libertarian. Plus, all those banksters were just doing what they were encouraged and sometimes required to do by regulation. Not sure what real estate agents had to do with it? How did they screw up? Their job is to sell houses.

    And who called for the bailout? You! Why? Why not let those that cause the problem fall on their face? Why are they being propped up? Oh - government has to step in to interfere more. You may find that in the long run this "cure" is going to be worse than the much-hyped "disease" that the politicians kept telling everyone is sure to come.

    I read for 1.4 trillion we could have paid off *all* Americans sub prime mortgages thus preventing Americans from being foreclosed *and* bailing out the banksters sketchy derivatives.

    So why didn't that happen? Why did it all go to Bears Stearns (and the other institutions that owed Bears Stearns money)?

    Of course that makes too much sense because it benefits everyone as opposed to a chosen few rich people, right?

    I think it's actually more insidious than that. But keep on trusting what the politicians are telling you if it makes you feel better. I think it actually makes a lot of sense when you think about who they are working for (hint: a few rich people).

    And note I actually cheer on Ron Paul and Libertarians when they challenge empire abroad, and police state at home and challenge why a private bank the Federal Reserve mints our money, that is all good stuff. Too bad your faith in the 100% rationality of market actors is so misplaced. Hint greed distorts peoples ability to choose rationally during bubbles which occur often, look up "irrational exuberance."

    That's just another Greenspan excuse

    --
    "Somebody has to do something. It's just incredibly pathetic it has to be us."
    --- Jerry Garcia
  39. Re:That's trivially true for EVERYTHING by TapeCutter · · Score: 3, Insightful

    First off the coal industry not the oil industry are the main funders for anti-science propoganda (Exxonn have a large stake in both industries). Secondly they are feeding us poison.

    And please the IPCC is not a government in any sense of the word, nobody is trying to take the free market away. The word "market" in "free market" refers to a set of rules for exchanging goods and services (ie: government regulation). The word "free" refers to the fact you are free to join if you play by the rules.

    People want those rules changed so that unintended side effects such as AGW are minimised. But we have had this converstaion before and despite the wealth of cotra-evidence I don't expect you will change your extreme view of capitalisim that colours most of your posts and blinds you to every other issue.

    --
    And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  40. Re:Irration exuberance ie markets fatal flaw... by dan4pres · · Score: 2, Insightful

    In a free market, the bad actors would be left to fail. We don't know what would have happened if the failing corporate garbage heaps were not propped up artificially. We were scared into believing the world would end.