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Technology Changes To Kill Netbooks?
The BBC is reporting that the netbook craze may already be nearing the end of its run. Citing rising netbook prices and many other evolving technologies that can potentially fill that gap, some critics think that the limited power of netbooks will ultimately bring about the quick demise of the once popular device. "Ian Drew, spokesman for chip designer Arm, also believes netbooks are in for a shake-up. Consumers, he said, were chafing against the restrictions that using a netbook imposed on them. 'We have failed the consumer because we have imposed constraints on them,' he said. Changing web habits and greater use of social media will mean consumers will be looking for gadgets that are tuned to specific purposes. 'It will be a lot of different machines for a lot of different people,' he said. 'This whole market will be exploding in the next couple of years.' Impetus for this change will come, he believes, from the phone world where many, many types of gadgets are already blooming."
I wonder whether or not the same thing will happen to phones. As people use their phone for more and more, will the cost rise so much that it will be prohibitively expensive? Does this mean that, at least for the near future, the idea of a phone as a true personal computer is just a device from science fiction stories(just like flying cars)?
I don't like Linux. This doesn't make me a troll.
and
The World Wide Web is dying. Soon, we shall have only the Internet.
Handhelds such as the iPhone and Android family don't allow for touch typing. Netbooks allow touch typing and as such, they will always have a place as a laptop replacement.
The main thing that would dethrone netbooks would be an external bluetooth keyboard for a smartphone, and it's interesting to note that even the popular iPhone doesn't officially support one, though it can be done with a hack.
Also, netbooks generally run some flavor of Windows which allows people to have a laptop/desktop experience on the road. Handhelds don't quite replicate that experience, though as we move more of our data and applications online the local operating system will become increasingly irrelevant.
The bottom line is that for at least the near future, netbooks still have their place, mainly as a replacement for more fully featured laptops for most purposes, and eventually they will probably be themselves partially displaced by handhelds for most people.
it's = "it is"; its = possessive. E.g., it's flapping its wings.
ARM has always been smart both in design as well as production (via licensees). While Intel gets all the press ARM is stealing the show and marketshare.
It is not clear if the net book is a good idea, but if you go down to bestbuy or microcenter, you find things that are almost as exspensive as a regular laptop, with cruddy features, poorly designed trackpads with the buttons on the side, tiny screens that need scrolling (is that a fubar or what) and, since they don't run linux, they don't have the 30 second boot time that was one of the most desirable featues - turn it on, check the cloud, turn it off before the first windows splash screen
What's he talking about? The Wikipedia says the Eee PC was introduced at a price of $399 US. Taking a wander around the racks at the local electronics retailer suggests that the average netbook, which has considerably better specs than the Eee is priced around $300-$350 CAN, which some being as cheap as $250 CAN.
it fills a very important need slot : fast, small, web capable device that you can carry around and with capabilities of a normal low end office pc.
as long as people are on the move and need to connect to web from a capable device (of the capabilities of a pc), that need will never cease. its not about 'social networks' or anything, its about a very common need.
i dont know from where the shitty need to link everything with social networks and whatnot comes. probably they are just playing along with the fad.
Read radical news here
Mine (Acer aspire) was less than $300, is small and light enough to take along every day, and
is powerful enough to support the work I do (sw development). All three are important for me
to have my work with me all the time. Any more expensive and I'd think twice about taking it
everywhere. At $300 if I loose it or break it it's annoying but easy enough to replace. Any
bigger or heavier and I'd think twice about throwing it in my backpack every day. Any less power,
or no keyboard, and I couldn't do my work. It's in the sweet spot for portable computing. Sure
more battery time would be nice, but not at the expense of the keyboard, the power, or the
manageable size and low cost.
Impetus for this change will come, he believes, from the phone world
The predicted convergence is very unlikely for two reasons: keyboard and display. It is not possible to be as productive on a less-than 25cm wide cell phone keyboard as on a netbook, and nobody has holsters or shirt pockets large enough for a real keyboard. The same holds true for displays. Phones are fine for reading WAP-enabled HTML and composing short emails or text messages, but that's not what people use netbooks for.
Apple's rumored iSlate, an iPhone with ports for keyboard and monitor, may work for some but the hassle of carrying around a keyboard/monitor won't be easier than carrying around a netbook, and netbooks will always have far more CPU and RAM.
I have to agree with my engineering friends on the other side of the pond and chalk up another faux-pas to the BBC, whose website, streaming audio, and tech reporting have never been particularly cutting edge. Not that our own NPR/PRI does tech any better.
Microsoft and Intel have been very uninterested in netbooks since they don't have the same market share as full size laptops. That's why the third generation of Atom chips aren't really any faster than the first generation and why the version of Windows 7 that gets stuck on a netbook is so limited you can't even change the background.
But other companies, without a large amount of profit coming from fullsize laptops, will jump at the chance to increase their bottom line. Ubuntu and ARM for example, have nothing to lose by offering netbook products, since they don't have any real marketshare in the laptop market.
AMD has been suspiciously quiet the last couple of years. I'm waiting to see if they might come out with an "Atom-killer". And don't forget Via. They already have a competent netbook chip.
There's definitely a market demand for low cost netbooks, so Intel and Microsoft can continue ignore this segment and risk that their competitors will take it away, or they can get in the game themselves. I think we'll see a real change in the netbook market maybe not this year, but early in 2011 as more and more alternatives to Atom and Windows 7 become available.
It seems that netbooks in the 7-9" range have started to disappear, instead they've grown slightly (both in size and specs) to essentially have become 10" cheap laptops. I know many people that use them as machines to take while traveling (especially internationally) and even more people that use them as their primary portable (typically with a larger laptop or desktop relegated to, well, the desk). $300 for a small, durable laptop with more than enough performance to do word-processing, web browsing and watch movies on, most which get 5+ hours of battery life (depending on usage) is still an amazing deal.
A good indication of their continuing success is the fact that 10" netbooks still account for 4 out of 5 of the top sellers in the computers and accessories categories on Amazon.
'It will be a lot of different machines for a lot of different people,'
What bullshit. People are predictable, and as with languages, humans will always simplify. If we can make it easier then we will use it.
To use the car analogy: The reason I don't own a motorcycle, a car, and an SUV (one for efficiency, one for general use, one for adverse weather conditions) is because I simply don't have room/money for three vehicles. These items take resources from our lives, just as these portable devices do. I'm sometimes annoyed enough as it is that I have to carry around my keys, my cellphone, wallet, and my keyfob. I'd only carry a netbook/notebook if I needed the additional computing power (or a keyboard, for that matter). Otherwise, my Droid works just fine for most other things. The point is is that we do not want more devices, we want consolidation. We want a one-stop shop because, simply, we don't have the resources to purchase a multitude of devices.
ARM's fatal flaw is that it can't run non-free Windows apps that aren't ported to CE. Windows CE netbooks exist, but a lot of Slashdot users say they find CE and its limit of 32 MB of RAM per process inadequate for the kinds of things that are done on netbooks nowadays. For example, what CE web browser can display SWF objects?
We've had the Atom for about 18 months now, and it's about to be replaced by a newer version that... runs at the same speed.
This is where the major problem lies. Those 18 months have seen CULV CPUs come down in price and go up in performance, but the Atom is sat there anchored to a 1.6GHz speed, most likely for another year or so. The other kicker is that the 7" and 9" machines with SSDs were soon replaced by 10" and 12" models with HDDs which blurs the line considerably to the extent that a netbook is now just a laptop with a slow CPU. The benefits of the small footprint and limitations of small storage have been lost.
Some people will still say that they can do all their basic stuff on a netbook, but when you can fork out an extra $100 and get something like a Dell 11z or 13z (Core 2 Duo 1.3GHz, 9 hour battery life), I really don't see the point.
Who waits for booting when you can just put the machine to sleep/hibernate when you're not using it?!?
People who have to make do with broken device drivers that come out of sleep with no sound or (worse) no video. I've seen it happen in both Windows and Linux.
"They" failed in the sense that they created a product for simple web browsing. The netbook is a failure because people still want to be able to burn CDs and DVDs, watch DVDs, play games that require > netbook spec hardware.
Soon you'll see the "DVD Netbook" and the "Gamer's Netbook" and the "Touch Netbook with extended battery life and cell modem with flipout nightlight".
Both statements are fine. You can fail and adjust. This is wonderful business.
All of these technologies can be considered stop-gaps until we have enough bandwidth to support either thin or hybrid thin/network-bootable clients. The only difference between a smart-phone and a laptop (or workstation) should be it's dimensions and form. If I store my data and environment on the network I can be almost device agnostic. I can use any workstation and access all my data, applications and any running processes. I can upgrade my system or expand/add capacity without needing to replace a single device. If you have the money why not carry a super computer in your pocket? Just don't carry the super computer parts.
Quack, quack.
> Changing web habits and greater use of social media will mean consumers will be looking for gadgets that are tuned to specific purposes.
Yeah, sure. As a consumer I really want to load my belt with my phone, my music player, my pda, my pager, my tag reader, my gps, my ebook reader and whatnot. I don't mind having ten different battery-chargers in my living room. What I don't want is a 300$ netbook because it does not have a specific purpose.
Which reminds me: when will best buy sell a Facebook device, a Slashdot reader and a youtube player? Cause I still have three inches left on my belt to hook gadgets.
lucm, indeed.
The problem is the things that make a netbook so desirable by a lot of people - amazing battery life and small form factor - are being discarded by hardware makers. They are insisting consumers want more powerful devices, so they are beefing up processor and memory which eats into battery life. Similarly, they are insisting users need larger screens which increases form factor and also eats into battery life.
So basically hardware makers are wandering into small laptop territory, when I'm not sure the core Netbook market is really moving at all - it's just the hardware makers are moving away from it and finding people don't want what they are making as much.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
As they demand more and more laptop features ( and higher costs ).. as eventually they will become laptops and the market will vanish. The people will still want them, but they wont exist. ( barely do now )
---- Booth was a patriot ----
wen evrything u say is n txts, u dont need 2 touch type
I need a real computer. I would like to be able to have it anytime, anywhere,
and net-connected of course.
I want to be a contributor, a producer, a writer, a creator, with my computer,
not just a consumer whose expresion of choice amounts to little more
than clicking the channel changer on the advertainment opiate-for-the-masses drip.
So I need a full keyboard or equivalent. NOT a touchscreen virtual keyboard.
I just need continued miniaturization, so that my current 4.5 pounder iBook G4 12"
becomes a 1 pound "wafer thing" wonder that I can stuff in a big pocket of my
jacket and go. But somehow, I need at LEAST 1024x768 resolution.
Hey but that's just me. Maybe the real deal will be a separate 1024x768 or better
tablet with a separate bluetooth fold-up keyboard optional.
Where are we going and why are we in a handbasket?
What is it with all the netbook weirdness.
I have an Eee 900 20G. Basically it is a small, cheap, very light, well built machine with a moderate battery life. It can combine those properties because it was very low spec compared to its contemporaries. Other than that, it is just a laptop. There are no restriction or lack of featuers. It is just a laptop.
I happen to like it because I don't require a fast machine or a large screen. Therefore it is better than almost all other laptops (for me) because it nails the specs I do care about.
When I am at home, I plug it in to an external monitor and DVD drive and it works well as my home (entertainment) computer.
I can't believe I am the only person in the world who does not need a fast machine. I have particular trouble believing it because they sold so very well.
I can see that the netbook markey it "dieing" mainly because the speed, size, weight and cost has gone up, making them merge with the normal laptop segment. There's therefore nothing to distinguish them from normal laptops. But when they were small, cheap and light they sold well.
The great thing about generic PCs is that they span niches from Vortex86, PC/104, through to laptops (with any practical range of speed, weight, battery life, cost size), luggables, desktops (from tiny Via /atom to quad socket behemoths) through to servers in as many shapes and sizes.
Why does this particular combination of weight, speed, size and cost seem to cause so much consternation?
SJW n. One who posts facts.
The netbook is just the first of many. We got a nice device outside of the Wintel duopoly and people discovered that they loved it. Then the duopoly imivated their own version, locking down specs and defining it to be what they wanted it to be - in the process driving up the price and netting them a bunch of embarassing low-margin sales, but at least preventing the other guys from reaping the full benefit of their innovation. If OEMs want to create new things and keep control of the markets they create all that's needed is to avoid platforms Windows can run on.
I think that OEMs are coming to understand that there is a market for any device that enables and empowers individuals to do new things - if it's portable and reliable and doesn't impose unnecessary restrictions. It's not really about the widget, it's about the people.
Help stamp out iliturcy.
CE sucks. WiMo sucks. The fact that if you use ARM Microsoft and Intel can't swoop in on your party and run off with your guests like they did with netbooks isn't just not a fatal flaw - it's a main reason for going with ARM in the first place.
Help stamp out iliturcy.
Didn't we go through this already? Arm made their push with PDA's then pushed their demise with the declaration that everyone wanted all their gadgets integrated. Now they claim everyone wants their gadgets separate and specific? Guess their original world domination plans didn't work out quite the way they wanted?
While I agree that the netbook as it is now will change and evolve, there is now a proven niche for low-mid cost devices that can do basic computer tasks, features and abilities will increase but I don't see this market segment going away. There are plenty of us that like the idea of a kindle for instance but find it too limited in what it can do, tablets seem like the natural progression. I know they have been tried before, but integration in the past wasn't nearly at the level it is now and cost of production and ownership kept the really good ones out of the hands of mainstream consumers. Perhaps improvements in communication, power consumption, quality, speed and costs have advanced us to the point that Star-Trek like data tablet is finally ready for prime time?
My new netbook is the same size and relative speed as my 5 year old Toughbook (CF-M34), just less drop-able.
And I think my 1995 IBM 701 thinkpad was even smaller.
The format stays the same, we're not going to carry-around another device just for Facebook. Even non-smart-phones can change your status, and I doubt Facebook will change that.
The netbook just made an old product new again.
It's a new sub-notebook at the same price as a 5-10 year old "Used" small laptop(sub-notebook) that you can find on E-Bay. And it runs at about the same speed. The netbook just tapped a market that was previously limited to used computers and the netbook I'm using right now is $100 dollars cheaper than when I first bought it 6 months ago.
You can now spend $300 every 18 months and replace your netbook as often as your cellphone.
As to specialized gadgets.
When I leave home, I've got my:
Smartphone, (Always)
Music player, (Only if I know I will use it, and I want to conserve cellphone battery life)
Netbook, (Only if I will do some serious work(or net-surfing))
8-track player (Only if I know I will meet someone from the BBC so that they can write an article about how the world is going to re-embrace analog music, cause it just sounds so much better than that MP3 mumbojumbo)
oh, and a Coffee-cup (Always)
People want cheap laptops. Thats all they want. Yeah, netbooks are good because at the time they were -cheap-. Is there a market for ultra-portables? Yeah, there was before the netbook fad and will be afterwards. The thing is, at this time last year, if you wanted a $350 laptop, it would have to be a netbook. Today, you can get a laptop with a 15 inch screen and a CD/DVD drive for the same price.
Taxation is legalized theft, no more, no less.
I was playing Flash movies on a Pocket PC five+ years ago in Pocket Internet Explorer.
Five years ago, Flash sites didn't require the same version of Flash Player that they require now. How well does, say, YouTube run in Pocket IE?
This is just wishful thinking on the part of the manufacturers. "Consumers want power! They want specialization!" No, that's almost exactly the opposite of what consumers want, which is low cost and flexibility. Rather, uber-powerful, single purpose devices are the manufacturer's wet dream. They've been pushing that idea since the '90s, and if anything, the opposite has happened. Phones and gaming consoles are now more like general-purpose PCs than ever.
If netbooks die, it won't be due to "technology changes," it'll be due to Microsoft and Intel doing everything in their power to kill them off, despite high consumer demand. This is a short-sighted, greedy move on their part, and if they don't offer what consumers want, then someone else will move in that will. This is why I think Chrome OS, despite its simplicity, will be huge. If nothing else, it'll light a fire under Microsoft's and Intel's feet.
vi ~/.emacs
So basically, the article says netbooks are going to fail because of:
* rising netbook costs
* smartphones increasing in functionality
* ARM preeminence on the horizon
* specialized devices (ie Kindle and kin) serving people's needs
Basically, what it boils down to, is "Netbooks are too expensive now due to Windows".
Frankly, I think the article is full of crap. The netbook isn't going anywhere; in fact, I think we'll see netbooks getting more features in the coming year, reducing their cost and/or increasing their diversity. Namely:
* That Pixel Qi or whatever screen which is viewable in direct sunlight we've been hearing about. Who needs a Kindle (for only $100 less) which is a crippled device, when you can get a full computer?
* "Convertible" displays (ie tablets), again challenging the Kindle
* Touchscreens
Granted, if ARM based devices can get into the market in the sub-$300 range and have all of those above features, I don't see why they wouldn't be able to "compete" with Intel based machines - x86 Windows and x86 apps included.
Personally, I've been waiting for better part of a decade for what is, essentially, a modern ARM tablet with a low-power display (loooong use) which is also similar to the NEC MobilePro 790 and/or 900. Might actually have a chance of that at some point. Surfing the internet from the top of a mountain after weeks of being there, via packet radio, would be so cool...
~/ssh slashdot.org ssh: connect to host slashdot.org port 22: too many beers
The problem with convergence is that the more functionality you put into a given device, the more load you put on that device's battery.
No single device - yet - has the ability to power all the various sub-tasks that we use these devices for and still maintain an acceptable level of readiness.
My Palm Lifedrive (which was really ahead of its time) made a great ebook reader, GPS (using a bluetooth GPS receiver) PDA, music and audiobook listener, and a passable video device, gaming platform, and web browser. But all those functions drew on the same battery. And some of those functions (GPS and internet access) require radios to be active (Bluetooth and WiFi) and so they hammer the battery even harder than self-contained apps.
When it is out of charge, you're dead in the water for all those functions.
So now, I have an iPod for audio/visual. I have a Kindle for ebooks. I have an eeePC 901 for internet, general purpose computing, and gaming. I have a Garmin 765 for vehicle navigation and audiobooks. I have a PSP-Go for gaming (xmas present) And I have a phone for communications and emergency web access.
Yes, that is a hell of a lot more devices to manage, and there is a nontrivial amount of mass in power adapters. In some ways, this is a step backwards. But by spreading tasks amongst devices, I ensure that I always have enough battery charge to do whatever task it is I want, when I want it. Or put another way, because I spread the power consumption amongst several devices, the likelihood of .any given device being charged up enough to carry out the intended task for the duration I want is very high.
Another factor (which is related) is that device specialization means the device can be better tuned for the task at hand, and storage requirements aren't a zero-sum. I can have a lot of music and video in my iPod (it's a 160Gb) I can have a lot of books. I can have fully detailed maps of the world and a bunch of audiobooks. I can have lots of games. And I can have a workable keyboard! All this without having to rob Peter to pay Paul in a single device.
Eventually, this will all get worked out. The iPhone unquestionably trumps my LifeDrive as a convergence device. I fully expect the 5th or 6th gen iPhone will have sufficient storage space and mature applications to fully take over the media, ebook, and quite possibly gaming functions, as well as be a serviceable personal GPS. But it will also have to be able to power these functions for at least 24 hours of use without recharging before it can fully replace all the other devices, and I don't think it will ever replace the general computing function of the netbook.
DG
Want to learn about race cars? Read my Book
To use the car analogy: the reason that there are still motorcycles cars AND SUVs is because each person chooses what is most important to them. People each make their individual choices about what is most important to them.
Back to the non-analogy: you're happy with your droid, and it does what you need/want it to. My friend has a 7" or 8" netbook, and it fits in her purse, and it does everything she wants it to. I have a 10" netbook, and it fits in my backpack, I don't carry it with me at all time, but I don't need it to be with me all the time. My boyfriend has a desktop and a full laptop... it works fine for what he needs to do with it.
The reason why netbooks will stick around for the long-term is because it fills a niche. Even with convergence, each device will converge in a slightly different way, based on what it is capable of. When phones start having a full keyboard (no matter the size) I may need to evaluate my needs, but until then, my netbook is the closest to perfect I can get.
WARNING! This girl exceeds the MAXIMUM SAFE standards established by the FDA for BRATTINESS
As others have pointed out, the anti-netbook push is a desperate attempt by manufacturers to prevent the computer industry from migrating to $199 laptops. The EeePC was originally announced as a $199 laptop. Massive efforts have been expended to stop that trend, by both Microsoft and Intel. Microsoft, of course, frantically announced a life extension for Windows XP, with CPU speed and screen size restrictions designed to cripple "netbooks". Intel actually has a screen size restriction for Atom-based netbooks. (For a CPU manufacturer, that's sheer arrogance.) The netbook manufacturers were pressured to move away from Linux. (The first generation of netbooks ware all Linux-based.)
It's been successful. Since 2007, the price point for netbooks has moved up, not down. Try searching on Amazon. (Hint: search "netbook computers -case -cover -sleeve -stickers -skins -adapter -keyboard -screen -charger -drive -speaker -phone -accessory -komputerbay -battery -cable -mouse", then use the "Sort by lowest price" option. Amazon doesn't make it easy to find the cheapest product.) The cheapest is a Visual Land 7" laptop at $149. EeePC units now start at $249. The cheapest new newbook on Google Shopping (which seems to be mostly a rehash of Amazon) is $229. The cheapest netbook at WalMart is $278.
I want a small one that is easy to carry.
I am sure I am not alone.
I don't need 15inch screen, neither do I need CD/DVD drive!
IANAL but write like a drunk one.
I completely agree with the guy. We need more specialized devices. Unfortunately clothing manufacturers are not keeping up with the number of pockets required for them but they will see the light.
Look at my gadget bag, its perfect, cell phone, Peek, Twitterpeek, Celio Redfly, iPod touch, Epson photo viewer, Canon ELPH digital camera and EeePC. I can't wait for Peek to release Facepeek for Facebook!
I am also looking for Palm Fooleo on eBay. I dont understand why they have cancelled this device. It would be great seller and would help Palm much more than stupid Pre and WebOS.
I really need to buy more crappy ARM powered one function devices because my bag looks empty. Ian Drew, than you for your vision of the future, I can't wait!
The article had dollar values as well. Netbook sales in 2009, according to the article, were worth $11.4 billion dollars, which is just over 10% of the total for portable PC sales. What's more, because of the low price of netbooks the unit sales numbers are even more impressive. Apparently 33 million netbooks were sold out of 169 million portable PCs. In short, approximately 20% of all portable PCs fit into the netbook category.
Perhaps even more interesting is that while unit sales for all portable PCs were up 5% net revenue was down 12%.
The article doesn't cover demographics (I would doubt that anyone has that information) but apart from that it actually covers most of your questions.
The idea that netbooks are dead, at this point at least, is simply ridiculous.
And you can't use this technology or a similar one for a notebook display why?
Production eInk screens, at present, have 16 shades of gray, and refresh rate of - at best, sacrificing image quality! - half a second or so. Do I need to explain why this would do horribly bad for any general-purpose notebook?
By the way, if you want open and do not want DRM, nothing stops you from using the dedicated eInk, reader hardware, and run FLOSS on top of that.
Some people will still say that they can do all their basic stuff on a netbook, but when you can fork out an extra $100 and get something like a Dell 11z or 13z (Core 2 Duo 1.3GHz, 9 hour battery life), I really don't see the point.
1. Dell doesn't make a 13z, it makes the 11z and 14z. 2. Only the 14z comes with a core 2 duo processor, the 11z only comes with single core processors 3. The 14z with dual core processor, 9 hour battery and crappy intel integrated graphics costs $789... Only $100 more than a normal netbook? In what dreamland? The 11z costs around $414 with a celeron processor and 6 hour battery, which is $100 ish more than a 'normal' pine trail netbook but its specs aren't much better than a normal netbook other than the processor.