At Current Rates, Only a Few More Years' Worth of IPv4 Addresses
An anonymous reader excerpts from an interesting article at Ars Technica, which begins "There are 3,706,650,624 usable IPv4 addresses. On January 1, 2000, approximately 1,615 million (44 percent) were in use and 2,092 million were still available. Today, ten years later, 2,985 million addresses (81 percent) are in use, and 722 million are still free. In that time, the number of addresses used per year increased from 79 million in 2000 to 203 million in 2009. So it's a near certainty that before Barack Obama vacates the White House, we'll be out of IPv4 address[es]. (Even if he doesn't get re-elected.)"
Can we start the discussion by not immediately going to the "NAT will save us" argument? Just accept that while NAT deployments might put it off, IPv6 deployment is inevitably necessary.
We'll never run out of IPv4 addresses. "Peak-IPv4" is a myth created by those who hate America and want Asia's IPv6 to take over. 4 octets forever!
I've already got MY ipv6 address.
4 octets should be enough for everyone.
WTF am I doing replying to an AC at 5 A.M on a Friday night?
RTFS and do the math. 203 million addresses were allocated in 2009; a /8 is 16.7 million addresses; reclaiming a /8 (which would probably take a lot of time and effort, possibly in court) would put off the IPv4 depletion by about one month. It isn't worth the effort; better to put it into IPv6.
Anybody not paying for a business line will being going through so many layers of NAT in the near future that getting bittorrent to work will be quite difficult...
Ha ha, I'm pwning it as we spe
I just helped out a friend who lives in a remote rural section outside of Chicago. I tried for years and years to get her lit up on decent broadband service.
Finally, we got a relay from a WiMAX provider --
When I went to connect her broadband with a Cisco router - I discovered that she was assigned a FRIGGIN /27 of public numbers!! (i.e. she now personally burns 32 usefull IPV4's)
I was gonna call their support ... but why bother?
You never know if she's gonna need 30+ public ip numbers right? Just because she lives alone - she may get many friends real soon!
---- "Logoff! That cookie shit makes me nervous!" - A. Soprano
I live in one of the most tech-focused parts of the country (downtown San Francisco) and as far as I can tell there's no way for a normal consumer to order native (i.e. not tunneled) IPv6 here.
When I moved to my current apartment in 2004 I specifically went with Speakeasy because they were talking about rolling out IPv6 to customers. Over 5 years later, those plans are still stalled as far as I can tell. None of the other providers seem to be even making a peep about it. If I'm wrong, someone please correct me - I'd love to switch to an IPv6-capable provider.
I've pretty much concluded that IPv6 just isn't going to happen -- instead providers will just force all of us normal people into shared IP addresses. From a technical perspective this isn't hard to do: just move the software that's currently running in your home NAT router onto the DSLAM and only provide a NATed view. For the ISPs there's no downside to this since not only can they avoid rolling out IPv6, it means they have complete control of your network connection.
I bet in 10 years we still won't have IPv6 in our homes, and the idea of having your own IP address (even a dynamically allocated one) will just be a memory. It's a shame.
"IPv6 addresses are too long and complicated to type"
...is like saying solar panels are too hard to build when you run out of slave labor in hamster wheels.
"We don't need IPv6 since there is NAT"
...is like saying we don't need new energy solutions because beeswax candles are a tried and trusted technology.
"The Internet will be overrun by zombies when NATs no longer protect us."
...is like saying avoiding antibacterial soap will cause untold misery and disease.
"Just re-allocate some of the wasted space in Class A nets."
...is like saying overcrowding of the planet can be mitigated by decreasing the size of houses.
True confidence comes not from realising you are as good as your peers, but that your peers are as bad as you are.
Do you think the current owners are hanging onto their address spaces out of pure spite? If they rely on the Internet to do business, this crisis hurts them more than anybody.
This mess happened because of the simplistic addressing schemes that were implemented without taking into account the explosive growth of the Internet. One result is that that some early adopters ended up with Class A networks (16 million addresses) because they needed more than the 64 thousand addresses in a Class B network. Only one Class A space belongs to a university (MIT). (There used to be two, but Stanford gave its IP space back.) Other owners include Halliburton, Apple, IBM, and Xerox PARC. HP has two, counting the one that was originally issued to DEC. DoD has eight.
Reassigning all these addresses would be a logistical nightmare, because you're changing the basic logic of network routing. Imagine all the routers that would have to be reprogrammed or replaced, and the expensive down time that would result. Much more cost effective to just go to IPv6 already. Plus there are other features of IPv6 we really, really need.
Except that nobody's doing it. I used to work at Sun, where I kept suggesting that our embedded lights-out management system (all Sun servers have them) start supporting IPv6. The answer I always got was, "customers aren't asking for it." Which means that everybody is putting off this problem until the last minute. As usual.
There are so many ways IPv6 remains broken and too many of the people with influence can tend to say 'working as designed'.
I know that's controversial, so I'll enumerate my pain points:
-DHCPv6 DUID is a pain to 'pre-provision'. When any operating system or firmware instance dhcpv6 for the first time, it sends out something that you'll never know what it would be ahead of time. In 99% of cases, the DUID is a generated value at 'OS Install time' that is used only for that specific OS, and a reinstall or livecd boot will change it out completely. stateless boot, multi-boot systems and multi-stage booting (i.e. pxe -> os) cannot hold together a coherent identity because DHCPv6 is explicitly designed not to do that. Binding by MAC is considered 'evil', but it has been the strategy used for ages. I wouldn't mind so much if DUID was commonly implemented as a value retrieved from motherboard firmware tables, but no one is stepping up to drive that behavior in a spec visible to all parties.
No PXE/bootp boot. I believe they are trying to reinvent, from scratch the boot design from IPv4, and are nearing completion. I fear the extent to which the baby has been tossed out with the bathwater (i.e. 'root-path' was dropped and no one has pulled it into dhcpv6).
Some standards are missing the capability to operate in IPv6. I.e. IPMI hase some IPv4 specific portions of the standard without IPv6 capable equivalents.
XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve the problem, use more.
No no, after December 21, 2012 all the addresses will be available!!
Security is mostly a superstition... Avoiding danger is no safer in the long run than outright exposure. - Helen Keller
Agreed, look at it another way: 2**32 is four billion address, which is one address per two world citizens. OK, I could share that IP with my wife, but given the number of devices in between us, that won't really work. Now I know, that places like Africa currently don't follow the pattern of "personal" computers, but how long will that last.
More realistically, given that my phone, web-server, car, camera, email, GPS unit, home security system, etc. all should have their own IP address, we need at least 20x what a 32 bit address space can provide. And then you've to add the 'wasted space' so that we can allocate blocks of addresses in a logical fashion.
So yes, IPv6 is the only way to go, if you like it or not. Couple of /8 blocks or NAT won't help us.
Browsers shouldn't have a back button!! It's all about going forward...
Of course there is - it allows all manner of insecure and misconfigured gear to avoid being probed from the other side of the planet?
That's not an advantage of NAT. That's an advantage of a stateful firewall that disallows inbound connections. NAT is not required to get the same benefit.
All of the machines in my home have public IPv6 addresses, but I have a firewall that blocks inbound connections to all of them. Same security result. No address translation.
Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
1h2.tyj.56j.0as
I think that would solve the problem permanently.
Shoes for Industry. Shoes for the Dead.
Or you could get a router which supports IPv6 *today* and use 6to4 to use a single public v4 address to address multiple IPv6 hosts on your network, and to talk to other IPv6 capable hosts. If you want a router that's ready out of the box, my understanding is that Apple's Airport routers support IPv6. If you don't mind a little bit of tinkering, you can get a router which is compatible with a third-party firmware replacement (such as OpenWRT, load OpenWRT on it, and use IPv6 (I just got a Linksys WRT54GL for $70 at Microcenter - it's a bit more expensive than some of the other 802.11g routers, but still not too bad - and I'm going to flash it sometime in the next week or two, as I get time).