Electric Bicycles Surging In Popularity

gollum123 writes "An accidental transportation upheaval began in China, where an estimated 120 million electric bicycles now hum along the roads, up from a few thousand in the 1990s. They are replacing traditional bikes and motorcycles at a rapid clip and, in many cases, allowing people to put off the switch to cars. The booming Chinese electric-bike industry is spurring worldwide interest and impressive sales in India, Europe, and the US. China is exporting many bikes, and Western manufacturers are also copying the Chinese trend to produce models of their own. From virtually nothing a decade ago, electric bikes have become an $11 billion global industry. In the Netherlands, a third of the money spent on bicycles last year went to electric-powered models. Industry experts predict similar growth elsewhere in Europe, especially in Germany, France, and Italy, as rising interest in cycling coincides with an aging population. India had virtually no sales until two years ago, but its nascent market is fast expanding and could eclipse Europe's in the next year. In China, electric bicycles have evolved into bigger machines that resemble Vespa scooters. These larger models are causing headaches for global transportation planners. They cannot decide whether to embrace them as a green form of transportation, or ban them as a safety hazard. Some cities are studying the halfway measure of banning them from bicycle lanes while permitting them on streets."

Comments

reasons this may not catch on in the US

[bcrowell]

Two of the many reasons this may not catch on in the US:

One is drivers. I ride a (nonmotorized) bike to work twice a week. It would sure be nice if drivers here in the US showed that they had some clue that cyclists exist. This morning I got to deal with a woman who decided to pull her car over into the bike lane so that she could talk on her cell phone. On the way home, I got a teenage girl eating a banana while wanting to turn left in front of me without signaling. Other fun experiences include people swerving around me and cutting me off because they're too impatient to let me get across an intersection, and people yelling at me because I'm not in the bike lane (hey, sometimes cyclists do need to turn left, and in any case the law says that cyclists can ride in regular lanes).

Another reason is weather. US weather has more extremes than Europe. There's a reason that all the early colonists from England died of tropical diseases.

Re:reasons this may not catch on in the US

[jchernia]

I think you'll be surprised and that it will.

I upgrated my old steel hardtail mountain bike into an ebike becuase I have a ~400 vertical foot climb from the train station to work.

I bought the Phoenix motor kit by Crystalyte (http://www.electricrider.com/crystalyte/phoenix.htm) and swapped out the acid batteries for a Lithium Ferrous Polymer at a very reasonable price (thank you Lau Chen of Hong Kong).

The result is a bike with almost 2000 watts max power (48V x 40A = 1920W) with 10Ahr of total juice. The practical range is about 10 miles at a speed of 30 MPH (I have a motor wound for slightly more torque).

My time up the hill basically beats driving (surface streets, not freeway). An interesting thing happens when you go as fast as cars - they see you better, you can get out of the way better and you take fewer stupid risks. For example, you are less likely to run a stop sign if you can re-accelerate easily. Also, if you're not pedaling hard you have more energy to focus on what's around you. It becomes more like riding a motorcycle.

I love my e-bike - once people see
1) How versatile they are (go anywhere a car can go and slightly more)
2) How cheap they are (fuel cost approaches zero even charging at home)
3) How normal you look on them (it's just a bike)
and most importantly
4) How lazy you can be on them (you don't sweat at all)

You will see much better adoption in the short range commute, even in the US.

Re:reasons this may not catch on in the US

[cduffy]

Those kinds of motorists are actually why you want e-bikes to catch on.

Statistics show a 30% increase in safety of each individual cyclist whenever the population of cyclists doubles; much of this is presumably related to folks in other vehicles learning to expect bikes on the road (though there certainly may be other factors -- such as cyclists being taken into account in roadway design -- involved as well). Something that gets more people off of four wheels and onto two is thus in all of our best interests. (For this reason also, mandatory helmet laws actually decrease cyclists' safety by discouraging cycling; while any individual cyclist is safer if they experience a head injury with a helmet than without, laws making helmets mandatory reduce the population of cyclists and thereby result in an increase in the number of head injuries suffered; even the practice of strongly encouraging helmet use may be counterproductive, as the perception that cycling is dangerous is also a deterrent to having more cyclists on the road. Nobody wears helmets cycling in downtown Copenhagen, and they seem to be doing just fine).

As for the weather argument, I don't buy it. First -- why would this apply only to electric bikes and not to conventional ones? Second -- I ride an electric bike, and live in Texas (which tends towards the high-temperature side of the extremes you speak of). The manufacturer, like many of their early customers, is in Colorado (which tends towards the cold side of things); lots of folks in California as well, and many customers overseas. The only fellow on the mailing list who's had problems with his bike linked to the weather? Northern England[1]. Yes, the Colorado folks have to put on spiked tires for navigating ice some of the time (and the company's marketing guy got himself a conversion with skis on the front and a tread on the back of his bike for Christmas), but we have folks who commute in the snow. Sure, that's a pretty extreme commute -- how would you rather start your day, with a drive or an adventure? :)

[1] - Apparently a small amount of water managed to get through multiple layers of seals and into the motor. We all ride in the rain, but he deals with some truly torrential downpours on an extremely regular basis. In any event, changes were made to address the issue, and no like problems have been reported since.

Re:reasons this may not catch on in the US

[cduffy]

No, the reason is because pretty much everyone else in the world has the sense to realise that bicyclists are pedestrians. They don't belong in the road any more than joggers or skateboarders.

I suggest you look again at Copenhagen.

Regardless -- the numbers show that vehicular cycling is safe -- and that in the US, riding on the sidewalk dramatically increases the chances of a car/bicycle collision (as drivers don't look for fast-moving vehicles on the sidewalk when pulling in and out of driveways). The League of American Bicyclists tracks statistics and offers classes (which leverage these statistics) on driving one's bicycle in a predictable, courteous, and safe manner; the accident rate for League members is on the same order of magnitude of that of motor vehicles when measured per mile traveled, but far lower when measured by other criteria.

Regardless, while the accident rate per mile is somewhat higher, the accident rate per hour spent traveling is dramatically lower for cyclists. This is critical, as the curve for peoples' commute time tends to be fairly constant regardless of vehicle -- people who use a faster mode of transport arrange their lives such that they live closer to work. As such, for a person who makes their decision to use a bicycle as a long-term lifestyle choice (and is thus eventually able to take such into account when selecting either their employer or their living space), the chance of being harmed during one's commute is actually much lower.

You might find Ken Kifer's analysis useful; the statistical arguments made are compelling. (Ken passed away some time ago, killed by a drunk driver; for anyone interested in making a point of this, I suggest comparing the frequency of this event to the rate of 3rd-party deaths caused by drunk cyclists).

Re:reasons this may not catch on in the US

[shutdown -p now]

n more friendly jurisdictions a car/bike collision automatically means that the car driver is at fault unless it can be proven otherwise. And if you think about it, that really makes sense.

No, it really doesn't. We need sane laws for everyone, not preferential ones for cyclists.

Anytime a cyclist or a motorcycle rider gets hit by a car, they are the ones that lose. Therefore, it is generally the inattentiveness and downright criminal actions of the driver that results in a crash.

Faulty logic. People do stuff that they know (or should know) will hurt them all the time. They do it a lot when driving cars, anyway, why should bicycles be any different?

I've seen way too many cyclists weaving through traffic lanes when it's clearly unsafe to do so (e.g. right after red turned green, and cars are starting to move), ignoring stop signs, and ignoring bicycle lanes when they don't need to turn left.

Re:reasons this may not catch on in the US

[cduffy]

I've seen way too many cyclists [...] ignoring bicycle lanes when they don't need to turn left.

Where I live, cars are often allowed to park next to, and even in, bike lanes. As a result, riding in the bike lane often puts one in "the door zone" -- the area in which a car door suddenly opening can throw one off one's bike and under nearby traffic -- or puts one at risk by forcing frequent lane changes (merging in and out of the bike lane to avoid parked cars). Additionally, while the city is generally quite good about keeping bike lanes and improved shoulders clean and safe, several suburbs which I ride through on my way to and from work don't share that priority.

For these reasons and others, one of the things taught in the League's traffic safety classes is recognition of times and circumstances when it's appropriate not to use bike lanes.

To summarize -- while I don't support the other misbehaviors you mentioned, if you see a cyclist ignoring a bike lane, they may be doing so for one of several good reasons.

Re:reasons this may not catch on in the US

[cduffy]

You can say it's nonsense all you like, but the statistics don't lie.

"The gain of 'life years' through improved fitness among regular cyclists, and thus their increased longevity exceeds the loss of 'life years' in cycle fatalities. (British Medical Association, 1992) An analysis based on the life expectancy of each cyclist killed in road accidents using actuarial data, and the increased longevity of those engaging in exercise regimes several times a week compared with those leading relatively sedentary lives, has shown that, even in the current cycle hostile environment, the benefits in terms of life years gained, outweigh life years lost in cycling fatalities by a factor of around 20 to 1." -- Mayer Hillman, Senior Fellow Emeritus, Policy Studies Institute, and British Medical Association researcher

See:

• British Medical Association, Cycling towards Health & Safety, 1992, Oxford University Press, ISBN 0-10-286151-4
• Hillman, M., Cycle Helmets, The Case For and Against, 1993, Policy Studies Institute Report 752, ISBN 0-85374-602-8

Re:reasons this may not catch on in the US

[collywally]

I did the same thing with my bike. At first I would pedal my bike to work and back every day but I would always be working late and after a 14 hour day at work I would then have to pedal, mostly up hill, to get home. Then I would have to wait about 2 hours or so until my body would relax enough to get to sleep. I eventually got sick of this and decided to buy a kit for my bike. 750W motor and a 48v 20Ahr LiPo battery pack does the trick. I get about 40kms and I can go about 55kph without the speed limiter. I also don't have to pedal at all if I don't want to, even while going up hill. This setup can be illegal where I am if I unplug the limiter but that never happens ;) .

The big difference that I found is that I stopped running stop signs and I would actually stop when people were in a crosswalk instead of driving around them. When I was on my normal push bike I was always trying not to lose momentum since it was so hard earned with sweat and energy. But on the electric bike I don't care since it costs me nothing in effort to start from a complete stop. I'm much more aware of my surroundings which I'm sure is from not having to spend so much energy peddling. I realize that i'm now treating the ride as if I'm on a proper motorbike and I've been driving much safer because if it.

I charge the battery at work for the most part but even if I didn't electricity is about 5.91c a kWh where I live which ends up being practically free for me. And the guys I work with appreciate it much more now that I don't arrive covered in sweat.

The best part is all the bike lanes and paths we have here in Vancouver, BC. I can get almost anywhere without being in heavy traffic and most of the routes are on proper pavement. With the Olympics coming up and all the road closures that will come with it, the bike will be, by far, the best way to get around town.

The best/worst part about it is the other bikers swearing at me when I pass them going up the hill on the way home.

Re:Nothing glamorous to see

[magarity]

The owners don't understand the concept of pride in their own possessions
 
I spent the past year in Beijing and can tell you it is not because of lack of pride in their possessions. It's a case of Chinese common sense: everyone knows the omnipresent theives want to steal shiny new ones, so the owner who wants to keep his has a ratty looking one.

Maybe not in North America

[spooje]

I really don't see this catching on in the US.

Here in Beijing lots of people (me included) ride electric bikes because it's too expensive to have a car and traffic jams are so bad it takes me 15 minutes to ride to the bank whereas it would take me about 1 hour to get there by car during rush hour traffic. Motorcycles aren't allowed in the center of the city so an electric bike is really convenient for getting around.

Then there's the question of money. I bought my bike for 2,100RMB (about $300USD). This is a little under half a month's salary for the average Beijinger so these things are very affordable especially compared to cars and motorcycles. I supect this is one of the reasons electric bikes are getting popular in places with a lot of poverty like India.

Then there's lifestyle. Here there's no Costco so I'm not hauling bags and bags of groceries at one time. Also I live in the neighborhood where I work so my commute is only about 10 minutes. That's the perfect range for one of these bikes. If you had an hour commute like many people in the US, you'd never be able to take the bike since the average charge seems to get me through about 45ish minutes before I really need to recharge. That's with peddling to help out the battery.

Re:Maybe not in North America

[cduffy]

Then there's lifestyle. Here there's no Costco so I'm not hauling bags and bags of groceries at one time.

I'm here in the US, there is a Costco, and I have no problem at all getting groceries home in the cargo trailer attached to my bike; a 100lb load is easy to tow in that trailer even on my unassisted bicycle.

If you had an hour commute like many people in the US, you'd never be able to take the bike since the average charge seems to get me through about 45ish minutes before I really need to recharge. That's with peddling to help out the battery.

Range is a matter of what kind of battery capacity (and motor efficiency) one is willing to pay for. My other (US-made electric) bike has a 2h30m runtime per battery (5 hours total if the external is attached) on economy (350W) mode, 50min per battery with no pedaling at full-power 850W. Yes, I paid the early-adopter tax -- but my legs run out of juice well before the bike does.

Increasing -- yes, but for different reasons.

[cjmapman]

Indeed, although the conditions that have spurred popularity of ebikes in China are not the same as those poised to do so in the US. In China, the trend reflects rising incomes and the switch from regular bicyles to electric-assist bicycles (typically with heavy but inexpensive lead-acid batteries.) In the U.S., growth is likely to come (1) because lots of aging baby boomer knees could use a little help, and the number of aging baby boomers is exploding, (2) because the highest cost component is a good Lithium-chemistry battery, and investments in the electric car industry are pushing those costs down fast, (3) because of the Growth of Green, and (4) because they are just SO much fun. Interested? Please join us at http://electriccyclist.com/

Ebiking for 9 months

[mbaysek]

I got on the road with my ebike in May of last year. I've got close to 3000 miles since then. I live in a city (Pittsburgh) with a lot of hills and my ride is 8.5 miles each way. I have to say that I get to work about 50% faster on average than driving my car. I also save over a thousand dollars a year on parking costs. My daily gas costs in my car were about $2.00. On the bike, it's less than $0.12 per day in electricity (including the half that I charge at work). I estimate the amortized costs of the battery to be about $0.50 per day, though I haven't had to replace my battery pack yet.

Needless to say, I am extremely satisfied with the experience, and I recommend it to anyone who's not afraid to try it. A few things I'd like to point out.

• As long I dress correctly, I can easily handle any weather, except snow/ice, including rain or temperatures down to about 20F. Sure, you get a bit wet in rain, but keep a change of clothes at the office in case you need them. Get a decent waterproof coat, shoes/boots.
• With the proper lighting on your bike, you can make it very hard for people to miss you. You should have flashing head and tail lights. Aim your head light so it will be seen by drivers in their rear and side view mirrors. It will annoy some people, but it will make sure they see you.
• If you ride at night, be sure to have enough headlighting to see safely at your target speed.
• Always keep spare batteries for your lighting.
• Merging with traffic is actually safer when you are moving at speeds closer to traffic. It gives drivers more time to see you and anticipate your movements.
• Get a good horn that people will be able to hear inside their cars with the windows up.
• Watch for car doors opening in front of you! And pot holes.
• Sometimes people like to lay on their horn at you, or pretend to run you down or pass you aggressively. If that's how they get off, then get out of their way, since there's not much you can do about it.
• Get puncture proof tires and Slime Super Thick inner tubes and you can run over broken glass and hit pot holes going 20 miles an hour without getting flats. I have ridden over 2000 miles since I did this, and still have not had a flat.
• Carry a complete toolkit with you, including duct tape! You almost never need it but you won't regret carrying it when you do.

Anyway, I thought I'd share my experience. Ebiking is absolutely a viable and economic means of transportation.