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The Journal of Serendipitous and Unexpected Results

SilverTooth writes "Often, when watching a science documentary or reading an article, it seems that the scientists were executing a well-laid out plan that led to their discovery. Anyone familiar with the process of scientific discovery realizes that is a far cry from reality. Scientific discovery is fraught with false starts and blind alleys. As a result, labs accumulate vast amounts of valuable knowledge on what not to do, and what does not work. Trouble is, this knowledge is not shared using the usual method of scientific communication: the peer-reviewed article. It remains within the lab, or at the most shared informally among close colleagues. As it stands, the scientific culture discourages sharing negative results. Byte Size Biology reports on a forthcoming journal whose aim is to change this: the Journal of Serendipitous and Unexpected Results. Hopefully, scientists will be able to better share and learn more from each other's experience and mistakes."

33 of 153 comments (clear)

  1. So... by Biff+Stu · · Score: 4, Funny

    If the LHC generates an Earth-eating black hole, will it be published here?

    1. Re:So... by Asadullah+Ahmad · · Score: 5, Funny

      I don't think so. This Journal will not publish any results that were expected

  2. A great idea by al0ha · · Score: 4, Interesting

    but the obstacles are immense. Egos are massive and competition is fierce, so asking researchers to admit a mistake or give the competition a short cut is a tall order.

    --
    Did you ever wake up in the morning, with a Zombie Woof behind your eyes? -- FZ
    1. Re:A great idea by Cassius+Corodes · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I've published a paper with negative results before - there is no great pressure against it - and sometimes failing to re-create claimed results is big news. Perhaps the reason why people think negative results are not published as often is because you don't write "why my study was a big fat failure" - you report on the results you did get - why they are not conclusive / their limitations and what you think future researchers can do to improve on it. I.e. you turn what is ostensibly a failure into a win for science (not to mention a paper for you). I have read many such papers - so they are hardly uncommon.

      --
      Control is an illusion, order our comforting lie. From chaos, through chaos, into chaos we fly
    2. Re:A great idea by T+Murphy · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Given failed results wouldn't need as much verification, it may be possible for researchers to submit under pseudonyms to avoid embarrassment, and I should think not all researchers are so full of themselves to fear helping others. I agree we won't see the best stories reach this journal, but if nothing else it will be a good way for the honest, cooperative researchers to know they aren't alone.

    3. Re:A great idea by electrons_are_brave · · Score: 5, Interesting
      I agree - I have on occassion partially replicated previous research and failed to find anything significant. In psychology, at least, this is needed because so many people claim significant results on relatively small correlations (i.e. many psychs are bad at stats).

      Repeating the study on a different population and failing to find a significant result can also show that the results don't generalise to that population.

    4. Re:A great idea by Trepidity · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I agree (my first paper was a negative-results paper), but I think there are some kinds of negative results that are relatively hard to get published. Papers along the lines of: "here's an approach you might have thought would work, but it turned out that it didn't, and in retrospect we can see why, which this paper will explain". If you try to submit a paper like that, you often get push-back of, "oh well, yeah it's obvious why that wouldn't work, dunno why you didn't see it earlier". And of course it often is obvious once you've read why it doesn't work.

      As you point out, it's quite a bit easier to get negative results published if someone else had already claimed them as positive results. In that case, you're not both proposing and shooting down the idea simultaneously, but shooting down (or failing to confirm) someone else's idea, which has the advantages that: 1) you have evidence that at least one presumably smart person really didn't think it was obviously a bad idea (in fact, they thought it was a good one, and even that it worked); and 2) you're positioned as correcting an error in the literature, rather than as introducing a correction for a hypothetical error nobody has yet made.

      It's a bit tricky to fix, because some negative results really are obvious: it does nobody in the field any good to publish "we tried X on Y, and it didn't work", if genuinely nobody who was competent in the field would've thought X would work on Y, and the reason was exactly the reason you discovered.

      Incidentally, here's one previous attempt to start such a journal that didn't really get off the ground. Their one published article, which is quite good, is of the form I mention: the authors of a system called Swordfish recounted an idea they had to produce an improvement, Swordfish2, that in the end turned out to do be better than the original Swordfish. It was hard to get published elsewhere, because it wasn't correcting an existing result---nobody had previously proposed that doing what they tried to Swordfish2 was actually a good idea---but it's interesting (to me, at least) because it really does seem like a plausible idea, and I feel I learned something in reading why it didn't work.

    5. Re:A great idea by Jurily · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Egos are massive and competition is fierce, so asking researchers to admit a mistake or give the competition a short cut is a tall order.

      The funny thing is, discoveries are not "I told you!". They're "That's interesting...".

    6. Re:A great idea by irp · · Score: 4, Interesting

      In my experience it has nothing to do with egos or competition.

      But it is damn hard to publish something that doesn't work!

      I was recently involved i developing a microfluidic system for diagnostics. Every milestone and sub-problem was solved. But when the final injection molded devices were tested, they failed due to an sort of interesting non-obvious combination of factors. Two issues with publishing this; the problems were very specific to our system and the conclusion could be written in 5 lines of text.

      It would have been like a movie with huge setup, but within the first 3 minutes the hero stumble, break his neck, and dies. End credits. It was a EU founded research project, no more money no more time. You can't get founding to continue a failed project. End of story.

      But my point is, in all my experience as scientist. I've never seen one of my colleagues say "we should hide this", but I've often heard "I would like to tell about this, but I don't know of a paper that would accept it".

      Also when something fails we need to carry on, but now we're behind schedule...

    7. Re:A great idea by thrawn_aj · · Score: 2, Interesting

      3 wonderfully candid and informative posts in a row. It's a pity that that won't stop the idiots crying "OMG conspiracy of silence by egotistical scientists!" :P

    8. Re:A great idea by A+nonymous+Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      There had been 17 -- but some overlord deleted the others before anyone got a chance to see them. These three escaped censorship because they had already been seen.

      Go ahead -- prove me wrong!

    9. Re:A great idea by Hognoxious · · Score: 2, Insightful

      you report on the results you did get - why they are not conclusive / their limitations and what you think future researchers can do to improve on it.

      And why you should get funding to do a follow-up study.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  3. This could be good by Kitkoan · · Score: 2, Insightful

    No longer having to remake the broken wheel each time. Or it could lead to a bad side effect having a positive outcome like Viagra and Zyban. Both of these were not what was planned but had amazing results. Hell, penicillin saves millions and if I remember right, was a total mistake at the beginning.

    --
    Attention... all grammer nazi"s! Is they're anything; wrong with: my post,
    1. Re:This could be good by dgatwood · · Score: 5, Informative

      Penicillin? Not a mistake so much as general messiness. The guy stacked up some bacterial cultures and went on vacation. One of them grew mold. He noticed that the bacteria near the mold were dead.

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

  4. Fantastic idea by nine-times · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Sometimes talking to people with very pro-sciene views, you get the idea that "science" is either an accumulated set of known facts or a perfect method which, because of peer review, is infallible at learning absolute truth.

    In reality, it's just a set of processes that we've developed and which has been generally more successful at producing helpful results than other methods. No reason to think that the way we go about it couldn't be improved. I can't imagine that failing to share the results failed experiments doesn't sometimes result in the loss of important information.

    Coincidentally I just saw this talk which raises the question whether helpful data can be gathered even if it's not gathered through conventional rigorous scientific methods. It seems like an interesting idea-- they're essentially gathering lots of data from various sources and using statistical analysis developed by economists to try to draw conclusions. My biggest concern would be purposeful manipulation by someone with an agenda.

    But anyway, all of this is to say that this has gotten me thinking about how the scientific process may still be open to some innovation.

    1. Re:Fantastic idea by complete+loony · · Score: 2, Interesting

      using statistical analysis developed by economists

      Funny, given recent events I would be more worried about the economists models.

      --
      09F91102 no, 455FE104 nope, F190A1E8 uh-uh, 7A5F8A09 that's not it, C87294CE no. Ah! 452F6E403CDF10714E41DFAA257D313F.
    2. Re:Fantastic idea by swanriversean · · Score: 2, Funny

      "using statistical analysis developed by economists to try to draw conclusions"

      this sounds promising
      /deadpan

      --
      Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. - Dr. Seus
    3. Re:Fantastic idea by phantomfive · · Score: 2, Informative

      Stripped to its bare, ideological minimum, science is nothing more than observation. You can extrapolate the implications of those observations, but in the end everything we know in science can be traced down to an observation. That is why intelligent design fails at being a science: while it technically might be true, it is not an observation, it is a guess. FSM is not an observation it is a (silly) guess.

      All the trappings of science, the double-blind experiments, the peer review, etc. are merely ways to improve the accuracy of our observations. It is really beautiful, actually, to realize that for any fact in science you can say, "how do we know this?" and get back to the original observations that show it to be true. This is not something you can do with religion, or philosophy, or literary criticism.

      --
      Qxe4
    4. Re:Fantastic idea by Entropius · · Score: 2, Insightful

      This is because statistical error -- the error you make because of the limits of your sample size -- goes down as 1/sqrt(N), but systematic error -- the error you make because of imperfect knowledge of your model, biases you can't estimate and control for, and so on -- does not.

      A large and difficult part of the field of computational physics I do, at least, is accurately estimating systematic errors. Statistical errors are easy, you just do the probability shit. But honestly estimating systematic errors is hard.

      If you have a large sample size, of course, you should be trying to bring that huge sample to bear to reduce systematic error, which can usually be done. An example of trying to correct for systematic error is the corrections made to polling data to account for cell-phone-only voters. It can be done, and as long as it is done honestly, you will get a reliable estimate of significance levels at the end.

    5. Re:Fantastic idea by TapeCutter · · Score: 2, Informative

      "Stripped to its bare, ideological minimum, science is nothing more than observation."

      You went too far, you stripped off the meat. Science uses observation to find models that accurately predict new observations. The guts of the philosophy is that the utility of reliable predictive models is self evident.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  5. Problem is by JanneM · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The problem with any change or reform of the publishing system is that publications are so important for the individual scientist. A paper isn't just a neat way to disseminate results. They are your work evaluation and your CV; they are keeping the score as it were. Where you publish and how often you publish directly determines where - or if - you work another year or two down the road.

    And even a short paper takes a lot of time and effort to write. For an informal "don't do that; we tried and it didn't work"-email to a colleague you could just jot down three or four paragraphs after lunch. Make a paper out of it and you have weeks or more of work ahead of you - looking up other previous published reports on the same kind of experiment; doing your best to figure out and explain the exact causes; square your (lack of) results with the apparent success of other groups that did something similar; make neat, clear graphs and illustrations as needed; get formal permission from your lab and your funding agency (and your co-authors labs and funding sources) to actually publish the thing. Then revise and edit the paper multiple times after comments from your co-athours and reviewers.

    So, getting good publications is vital for your ability to make rent and buy food for your family. Writing publications take a lot of time and effort - time that is pretty limited. So, even though the will to spread the word on a negative result may be there, chances is, writing it up will be relegated to the "when I've got a bit of spare time"-pile, where it will likely sit until well after retirement.

    --
    Trust the Computer. The Computer is your friend.
  6. Technique X fails on problem Y. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    an article for the first issue? covers all questions

    So are we talking:

    Technique X fails on problem Y.

    Sue all music downloads fails to stop piracy?

    Hypothesis X can't be proven using method Y.

    All music downloaders can't be proven to be pirates

    Protocol X peforms poorly for task Y.

    Suing all music downloaders performs poorly for stopping music piracy

    Method X has unexpected fundamental limitations.

    Forcing people to buy music only on CD / Tape / Vinyl doesn't appeal to all customers

    While investigating X, you discovered Y

    While trawling torrent log files for music pirates we also found some great porn

    Model X can't capture the behavior of phenomenon Y.

    Current Music Business Model can't capture the behaviour of generation Y

    Failure X is explained by Y.

    Failing to increase revenue is explained by $0.99 tracks on Apple (damn iPod users) an music pirates too (arrrgh!)

    Assumption X doesn't hold in domain Y.

    Assuming independant music stores will be profitable doesn't hold in the .com domain

    Event X shouldn't happen, but it does.

    People shouldn't want to listen to music for free (damn radio stations, ipods, internet)

  7. Awesome! It's about time! by Fantastic+Lad · · Score: 3, Insightful

    This is a fantastic idea! It takes a great deal of strength to do this; one has to learn how to have fun and ignore the pangs of the ego.

    James Burke's Connections was based on similar philosophy. Non-linear thinking is a very powerful method of moving through time. Many geeks live in the clutches of an obsessive desire to control everything so that they don't get hurt by being wrong. If they could just relax and roll with the ups and downs and not be so hard on themselves, not care if they are laughed at, then they would find their power and perhaps start living lives of consequence.

    One university professor described an enormously powerful way of doing research; When you're up against a wall, seeking fruitlessly to find a specific title to continue your line of thinking, instead just pull out some random book nearby. Doesn't even have to be from the same shelf or Dewey code. It will have the answer. -But only if you're tuned to your inner Jedi.

    Those who deny their inner Jedi are forever lost. But the upside, I guess, is that nobody will laugh at them.

    -FL

  8. This is a great idea! by Dr_Ish · · Score: 4, Insightful

    One of the things that many scientists lack, is a good grounding in the Philosophy of Science. The public version of science, largely pushed by science teachers has an origin in the Vienna Circle of Logical Positivists. This is now largely known to be problematic, but is still the prevailing view. Folks should read Feyerabend's *Against Method* , or Ravetz's *Scientific Knowledge and Its Social Problems* for a more realistic view.

    As a scientist, I can also tell tales about how the scientific method gets distorted by ideology. When I was in grad school, I was working on a complex set of problems that were a horror -- a week doing eight hours a day pumping numbers into a scientific calculator is not my idea of fun. However, back then, it was a necessary evil. So, I was about to have to do another horror week with the calculator, which I did not want to do, so I was wasting time and did something silly. It turned out to be a great idea. It gave a whole new method to solve the problem type at hand. A number of other people had a hand in the final paper, but I got to be first author. Unfortunately, as only one author amongst many. The paper made claims about the hypotheses that was being tested, I objected very strongly to this -- there was no hypothesis, but we just got lucky. However, there is a paper with my name on in, published in the 20th Century, that contains claims about what we discovered which are false, at least with respect to hypotheses and all that stuff, in order to ensure that we were following someones idea of the scientific method. It irks me even today. Fortunately, a book about the issue now gives a more accurate account. However, there is no doubt that scientific ideology can drive out the truth. Thus, what is proposed here is a good idea. Telling the truth (even if it does not conform to the ideologically driven official method) is something I teach my grad students even today.

    1. Re:This is a great idea! by AthanasiusKircher · · Score: 2, Insightful

      One of the things that many scientists lack, is a good grounding in the Philosophy of Science. The public version of science, largely pushed by science teachers has an origin in the Vienna Circle of Logical Positivists. This is now largely known to be problematic, but is still the prevailing view.

      Thanks so much for pointing this out. It never ceases to amaze me how many scientists seem to believe blindly in some sort of simplified method taught in middle school or the interesting, but ultimately useless, Popperian epistemology.

      Is it really that complicated to understand that "falsifiability" is only a useful concept (and a somewhat limited one at that) for describing the process of testing hypotheses that are already formulated, but it gives almost no guidance about how to come up with such hypotheses in the first place? With such a "method," how could scientific progress ever happen?

      Such a "method" is not supported by any reasonable empirical study of the history of science. It's sort of ironic that with all the data available about how scientific advances actually seem to work, scientists believe in a paradigm of their own discipline that doesn't describe the evidence.

    2. Re:This is a great idea! by AndersOSU · · Score: 2, Informative

      Watching something isn't scientific observation.

      Saying I saw a comet explode isn't science.

      Saying I saw a comet explode as it neared the sun is getting close because now you're hypothesizing that the sun had something to do with it.

      Saying, "the comet exploded due to the melting of water ice as it neared the sun, similar comets should explode as they near the sun as water ice appears to be a fundamental structural element" is science because now you're making testable and falsifiable statements about the comets in general. Now scientific community didn't have to see your comet, they just have to see a comet with similar conditions.

      All we have to do is wait for a comet that matches your description fly close to the sun and see if the same thing happens again. What's more future observers can do more detailed observation and get a better sense of the comets composition before it explodes - maybe it wasn't water but thermal stresses due to heating of dissimilar materials that broke it up, but because you made a scientific statement, now the scientific community knows at least to watch for comets as they get near the sun, because something interesting might happen. Even if you're wrong, it's still science. This is important, the public ought to realize that science is a process, not The Ultimate Truth.

      It gets a touch harder with historical sciences like evolution, "the raptor evolved into the chicken," is a scientific statement because I can test it with DNA for example, but I can't say why evolution chose that particular course, nor can I say if under the same conditions something resembling a raptor will evolve into something resembling a chicken. What I can say is that the two are related and when I make my Jurassic Park lets use chicken DNA instead of african frog DNA to fill in the missing pieces, it's a closer match and if anything is going to work chicken DNA will (also chickens don't spontaneously change sex - although I am concerned with the possibility of raptors with wings.)

      The hallmark of science is the development of models that yield useful information, but the only way to know if the model is right is to test it - which is why Popper and everyone else is so obsessed with falsifiability.

  9. Great scientists weren't very scientific by syousef · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Einstein wasted the last half of his life on wishful thinking "God does not play dice". Well turns out we're pretty sure he does. See Bell's theorum which shows that it can't just be hidden variables. And by all accounts for a theoretical physicist he sucked at advanced math.

    Isaac Newton was a horrible little man. Ill tempered, neurotic, and did wild experiments that he was lucky didn't blind him. Let's not forget the nastiness with Leibniz.

    Galileo had the social skills of a village idiot which led to the suppression of his work and his imprisonment by the authorities that he angered. (They were idiots too but that's beside the point)

    They're three of the greatest but I could go on.

    We like to pretend our scientists are great men with a couple of eccentricities that are way too smart to socialise or tolerate fools but the fact is their thinking isn't so superior OR logical OR scientific EXCEPT in their areas of expertise. THAT is why they are remembered. Not because they were above being unscientific.

    --
    These posts express my own personal views, not those of my employer
  10. failed experiment by InlawBiker · · Score: 4, Funny

    Don't date Wendy from the admissions office. Spectacular failure.

    1. Re:failed experiment by jamesh · · Score: 3, Funny

      And you are basing this on one datum? Have you learned NOTHING??? Go back and try again and see if you get the same outcome.

  11. Old Problem by RobinEggs · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Trouble is, this knowledge is not shared using the usual method of scientific communication: the peer-reviewed article. It remains within the lab, or at the most shared informally among close colleagues. As it stands, the scientific culture discourages sharing negative results.

    This sort of complaint goes back a very long ways, and it's certainly as good a time as any to address it head on.

    We have a habit in writing articles published in scientific journals to make the work as finished as possible, to cover all the tracks, to not worry about the blind alleys or to describe how you had the wrong idea first, and so on. So there isn't any place to publish, in a dignified manner, what you actually did in order to get to do the work, although, there has been in these days, some interest in this kind of thing.

    - Richard Feynman, Nobel Prize Acceptance Lecture, 1965

  12. Re:This IS a great idea, and the cause of our fail by Ruke · · Score: 3, Insightful

    You may joke, but facebook is a data-mining goldmine. Never before have advertisers had such free access to the personal lives of the very people they hope to sell their products to.

  13. Is that a so good idea ? by Yvanhoe · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I can't help but remember Sony founder explaining how they were looking for ways of doing efficient small transistors with various materials and that they had learned from Bell labs that silicium gave very poor result so they spent minimum resources on that.

    I can't help also wonder if this is a good use of "peer reviewing" which has a kind of shortage, or so I heard.

    --
    The Wise adapts himself to the world. The Fool adapts the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the Fool.
  14. conferences and informal communication help by davros-too · · Score: 2, Interesting
    Not all knowledge is in formal publications, a heck of a lot of information that falls short of the publication threshold is shared at conferences and through informal communication. While rivalries can sometimes reduce communication there is a lot of information shared between colleagues.

    In addition there is often a lot of benefit in working things out for yourself - this provides the in depth understanding to base deeper work on which can be lacking if merely following instructions...

    --
    In theory, there's no difference between theory and practice; in practice there is.