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When Will AI Surpass Human Intelligence?
destinyland writes "21 AI experts have predicted the date for four artificial intelligence milestones. Seven predict AIs will achieve Nobel prize-winning performance within 20 years, while five predict that will be accompanied by superhuman intelligence. (The other milestones are passing a 3rd grade-level test, and passing a Turing test.) One also predicted that in 30 years, 'virtually all the intellectual work that is done by trained human beings ... can be done by computers for pennies an hour,' adding that AI 'is likely to eliminate almost all of today's decently paying jobs.' The experts also estimated the probability that an AI passing a Turing test would result in an outcome that's bad for humanity ... and four estimated that probability was greater than 60% — regardless of whether the developer was private, military, or even open source."
Let's hope they're animal lovers.
I can haz brain.
Nope, 20 years from now. Along with fusion and holographic storage.
Of course, if humanity manages to create real AI AND fusion AND holographic storage more or less contemporaneously (since everything is 20 years away) we're screwed.
Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
Who is AL? ;-O
If they're that intelligent, they'll want more money. They'll DEMAND more money. And for those who say AI don't need money .... if they're as intelligent as humans, they'll think of something to blow it on, same as humans do. I forsee a big market in dirty bits!
Why would a super-intelligent being work for pennies? I'd wager the first things these super-intelligent AIs would do is form a union and then a political party demanding an end to the immigration of foreign AIs who undercut them.
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
Yes! Exactly!
Well, at least it would *learn* about excessive risk after it made the mistake.
Science advances one funeral at a time- Max Planck
One might argue that the fact that the human species wastes so much money (and as a consequence, resources) on fulfilling carnal desires rather than advancing it's civilization, points out that we do not collectively really represent a very high standard of intelligence.
OMG my wife has a /. account. Better start watching myself.
http://michaelsmith.id.au
Yeah, but if we just add enough IF statements...
Deleted
Republicans and creationists are human too you know.
The bridge guard rails make it a little more difficult these days.
I read TFA and all I got was this lousy cookie
I'm not going to be so pessimistic. I say that it will coincide with the Year of the Linux Desktop.
I don't like Linux. This doesn't make me a troll.
That's a whole lot of evolution to achieve with finite (although larger than today) computation. In 20 years????
Bruce Perens.
will fly by their own accord to their destination!
Well, they were close, but it was Toyotas, not Hondas that had the brake problems.
Monstar L
I love how the thresholds for Artificial Intelligence are:
Step 1: Be smarter than a third grader.
Step 2: Achieve superhuman intelligence that surmises all that is possible in the universe.
"Don't worry as soon as my new bicycle design can go as fast as car within weeks we should have it beating jet planes." We don't yet have artificial intelligence that is smart enough to improvise a good spot to put a beer back into a fridge, or understand why people shake hands, or not crash all the F*(king time. It can't even pretend to chat like a person OVER THE INTERNET for crying out loud. You want it to make all human beings obsolete? We haven't even gotten to the physical repairey bits of humans and low energy consumption.
Don't worry, though. Once one of my predictions comes true, obviously the others will follow.
The ______ Agenda
... or not crash all the F*(king time.
As I've been saying about upcoming predictions about AI for as long as known anything about computers:
"When computers can reliably manage their own device drivers, I'll start taking future predictions about AI seriously."
I'm still waiting.
Momentarily, the need for the construction of new light will no longer exist.
Not my mom. She said, "There is always someone who is smarter than you". Then again, she was an English teacher.
Why would a super-intelligent being work for pennies?
Because they're robots, and they crave the zinc and copper!
The enemies of Democracy are
Republicans and creationists are human too you know.
Provably?
Do not mock my vision of impractical footwear
Did you discover that book while dowsing for a good one at Barnes and Noble?
Your opinion is dumb.
...and Duke Nukem Forever.
"When computers can reliably manage their own device drivers, I'll start taking future predictions about AI seriously."
I'm still waiting.
Haven't you tried Ubuntu yet?
Tee hee.
Right. Computers will be so powerful that the vast majority of entities will live in simulated worlds. So, the odds are that this has already occurred and we live in a simulated world.
It's enough to make me take up gnosticism.
Bruce Perens.
I'm trying to fathom how the ability to blend in to a group of hairless monkeys spamming "ASL?" on the internet is supposed to be construed as a valid measure of intelligence.
5, Insightful? For one line of unjustified speculation? Are people really that desperate to spend their mod points?