When Will AI Surpass Human Intelligence?

destinyland writes "21 AI experts have predicted the date for four artificial intelligence milestones. Seven predict AIs will achieve Nobel prize-winning performance within 20 years, while five predict that will be accompanied by superhuman intelligence. (The other milestones are passing a 3rd grade-level test, and passing a Turing test.) One also predicted that in 30 years, 'virtually all the intellectual work that is done by trained human beings ... can be done by computers for pennies an hour,' adding that AI 'is likely to eliminate almost all of today's decently paying jobs.' The experts also estimated the probability that an AI passing a Turing test would result in an outcome that's bad for humanity ... and four estimated that probability was greater than 60% — regardless of whether the developer was private, military, or even open source."

Comments

That sound? Inevitability Mr. Anderson.

[headkase]

Doubters and those who don't truly understand deny Strong AI will happen. Let them live in their bubble for another *short* while. The numbers, when you're talking 100Ghz processors on the horizon, are starting to get there. Of course there are going to be critical impacts on all aspects of human society. To minimize it perhaps we should move to the system that requires an amazing level of technology to function. Yes, the big, bad, boogaboo of communism. Just because people tried to make it work without having the necessary pieces doesn't mean it's old and busted. Well, to people who aren't stupid anyway. The inefficiency issues are greatly mitigated by using computerization technology to simply track everything and eliminate duplication of effort. From there, with the further piece of AI, well: you program the machines so that they *like* to do the work and allow humans to *just live* without this quaint rat-race to go to every day *because it is not longer needed*. Of course there will be wars and heartbreak along the way because of course people are dumb in holding on to their resistance to change itself, even if for the better. And of course we won't see it cleanly because most people will also insist on conflating the issues of means with values, communism as a governing system for production and consumption doesn't *really* have anything to do with rights such as speech. The ghost of McCarthy will sink that discussion anyway too.

Re:When?

[Ltap]

You know, people might take what you have to say more seriously if you stopped talking about "obsolte" things and "comptuers". Just a tip.

Also, medical science is a fishy thing. Eliminating disease isn't necessarily a good thing; what we're (hopefully) moving towards is a smaller world population with each person better educated and more supported. Eliminating diseases aren't especially useful, since many diseases simply kill people, which is what we want - population reduction. What is more useful in the long run is development of prosthetics and helping long-term ailments, which means that people that would otherwise be housebound can now rejoin society.