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A Crowdsourcing Project To Make Predictions More Precise
databuff writes "Predictions are critical to modern life. Police predict where and when crimes are most likely to take place, banks predict which loan applicants are most likely to default, and hotels forecast seasonal demand to set room rates. A new project called Kaggle facilitates better predictions by providing a platform for forecasting competitions. The platform allows organizations to post their data and have it scrutinized by the world's best statisticians. It will offer a robust rating system, so it's easy to identify those with a proven track record. Organizations can choose either to follow the experts, or to follow the consensus of the crowd — which, according to New Yorker columnist James Surowiecki, is likely to be more accurate than the vast majority of individual predictions. The power of a pool of predictions was demonstrated by the Netflix Prize, a $1m data-prediction competition, which was won by a team of teams that combined 700 models. Kaggle's first competition is underway, and it is accessing the 'wisdom of crowds' to predict the winner of this May's Eurovision Song Contest." Understandably, participation requires registration.
"Past prediction is not an indicator of future performance."
While we're at it, why don't we let everyone pool together their lottery number predictions?
Behold my amazing precognitive abilities, as I look into the future of crime and predict:
Most crime will take place in that part of town with the highest concentration of check-cashing and liquor stores, between 5 pm and 3 am. Most of the alleged defendents will not be college educated and will have prior criminal records. Very few actual crime arrests will involve white collar fraud or the elaborate, diabolically-planned crimes that make up the bulk of criminal activity shown in popular TV shows, comic books, and movies. The vast majority of accused criminals will be, in fact, guilty of the crime they are accused of. Very few criminals will be represented by a crusading public defender with the resources to conduct a thorough analysis of their case and order elaborate DNA tests to prove their innocence in a last-minute dramatic countroom reveal.
SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.
Crowdsourcing Project To Make Predictions More Precise
I think they used to call them "polls".
How can I believe you when you tell me what I don't want to hear?
How about this. Get a group of "police" that predict who will commit a crime, and arrest them beforehand. We could give it a silly name, like "minority report".
Who would win this election: Andrew Weiner vs Andrew Weiner's weiner.
The wisdom of crowds works when everyone is looking in the same area for the answer to a question with a somewhat fuzzy answer. The group average can often be better than any single expect that attempts to calculate it. However this is a poor approach when the crowd isn't even looking in the right place. Simple majority decision making would be disastrous for many of the big decisions organizations make. The pubic is massively ignorant on scientific issues and continues to be plagued by religious, corporate, and state imposed falsehoods. Freeing people from these shackles and providing full education for all could allow us to crowd source more important decisions and lead to a more efficient and just society.
------ Take away the right to say fuck and you take away the right to say fuck the government.
They're just legally prevented from interceding before the when. In fact, in my old home town, the police knew a certain criminal had been murdered because of the reduction in the crime rate at certain times and areas.
Only a small proportion of real crimes and criminals are not predictable.
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