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Biggest Study On Cellphone Health Effects Launched in Europe

An anonymous reader writes "The biggest study to date into the effects of cellphone usage on long-term health was launched today, aiming to track at least a quarter of a million of people in five European countries for up to 30 years. The Cohort Study on Mobile Communications (COSMOS) differs from previous attempts to examine links between mobile phone use and diseases such as cancer and neurological disorders in that it will follow users' behaviour in real time. Most other large-scale studies have centred around asking people already suffering from cancer or other diseases about their previous cellphone use. Researchers said long-term monitoring will provide more time for diseases to develop, since many cancers take 10 or 15 years for symptoms to appear."

34 of 109 comments (clear)

  1. permanent mouth movement by CdXiminez · · Score: 5, Funny

    I wonder what mental and dental health effects they find now that most people's mouths never stop moving anymore.

  2. Foil hats by Hognoxious · · Score: 2, Funny

    Foil hats on, chaps!

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  3. More info on study by thijsh · · Score: 4, Informative

    There is some more info here: http://www.mthr.org.uk/research_projects/COSMOS.htm

    Apparently the project is in the UK, Scandinavia and The Netherlands, let's see if I can participate...

    No details on how the study is performed but I guess they will just try to gather data for statistical analysis. I hope they will make a difference between calling for hours daily (holding at your ear) and using mobile Internet over 3G for hours daily (on your lap / in hand)... Most studies until now just looked at the length of use and calculate the energy absorbed by the body (i.e. a sack of water), and I guess there aren't really a lot of interesting things to learn from that...

  4. Cause or effect? by Joce640k · · Score: 5, Insightful

    So...um, if they find brain cancer in the sector of the population who can't ever seem to put their phones down, will that be diagnosed as a cause or an effect?

    --
    No sig today...
    1. Re:Cause or effect? by OrwellianLurker · · Score: 2, Funny

      So...um, if they find brain cancer in the sector of the population who can't ever seem to put their phones down, will that be diagnosed as a cause or an effect?

      Whichever use better fits whatever point I am trying to make.

      --
      'Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.' - Mao Tse-tung
    2. Re:Cause or effect? by Joce640k · · Score: 2, Insightful

      This is the real problem. The believers will go right on believing no matter what the conclusion is.

      --
      No sig today...
    3. Re:Cause or effect? by jamesh · · Score: 4, Insightful

      This is the real problem. The believers will go right on believing no matter what the conclusion is.

      Truer words were never spoken. The results of the study can never be 'mobile phones cause cancer'. If there is any correlation it will be something like 'heavy use of a mobile phone increases your chance of brain cancer by x%' where x is likely to be quite small or we'd have noticed it by now, and certainly small enough that it won't have much meaning to anyone and they'll keep on doing the same thing as they always have.

      What we know right now is that talking on the phone while driving reduces your concentration by some amount (depending on a whole load of factors including the person) and increases your chances of an accident by some amount. It doesn't seem to stop anyone from doing it though. Neither does the threat of punishment. The numbers are small enough that people can rationalise them down to zero through the various cognitive biases that inhabit the human mind. In particular "it will never happen to me".

      (My bet is that phone related distractions cause more accidents and deaths than phone radiation will ever cause.)

    4. Re:Cause or effect? by Thanshin · · Score: 3, Funny

      (My bet is that phone related distractions cause more accidents and deaths than phone radiation will ever cause.)

      My bet is that there will be more deaths by phone-attracted lightning than by phone radiation.

    5. Re:Cause or effect? by TheLink · · Score: 3, Insightful

      > My bet is that phone related distractions cause more accidents and deaths than phone radiation will ever cause.

      If that is true heavy cellphone use could actually help reduce your chances of getting cancer ;).

      So even if cancer risks actually increase for heavy users who never drive while using them (who are probably a small minority), the results of the study might be "no increase in cancer" to average person :).

      --
  5. Re:What, now? by ZombieWomble · · Score: 5, Informative
    With regards to this data being relevant to cancers from "yesteryear" - to be blunt, they don't care. The purpose of these studies is to determine whether current mobile phone usage poses a risk to the population. If someone developed a cancer from using a phone which was made to poorer standards a decade ago, that's a shame, but there is no particular reason you should expect this research to be relevant to them, and moreover what good would it do? Unless they were anxious to try and throw around lawsuits, there's no benefit to working out the risk factor they were exposed to.

    And as for why this study has taken so long to do - you don't launch a study costing many millions of pounds and spanning decades as a first step in research (particularly in a field with relatively sketchy underlying hypotheses). You start with smaller, retrospective, studies which allow for large effects to be readily detected, at a fraction of the cost. The problem with mobile phones is that there is no evidence for the type of large-scale, acute effect which can be readily quantified by such small projects, so a larger project (like this one) is required to look for smaller-scale effects (which may still be significant on the level of the population).

    And the problem with a big project is actually managing to get enough stats for sufficient predictive power - in the early days of mobile phone usage there simply weren't enough people regularly using mobile phones to make meaningful predictions about the effects on the level of a population. Indeed, it notes that even five years ago a study of this kind had to be halted because of a lack of participation.

    Berating scientists for wanting to perform good-quality studies is not very productive. The demand for scientists to produce dramatic information very quickly tends to lead to lead to misleading results being presented, and statements of that kind (see: foods which cure/cause cancer every other week) is one of the reasons many people are losing faith in science.

  6. Control group? by igaborf · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Yeah, but where are they going to find a control group of people who don't use a cellphone?

    </kidding>

    1. Re:Control group? by lxs · · Score: 2, Funny

      I manage the same thing with a cellphone and no friends.

    2. Re:Control group? by Charliemopps · · Score: 2, Funny

      Amish...

    3. Re:Control group? by ShadowRangerRIT · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Actually, I doubt there will be a strict dividing line between control and test. They'll use their cell phone records to determine how many minutes they are on the phone per month (possibly taking into account self reported use of hands free devices). You can't tell thousands of people that they may not buy a cell phone for the next 30 years, but you can track usage, and determine if the people talking for half an hour per month have more or less cancer than the people talking for three hours a day.

      --
      $_ = "wftedskaebjgdpjgidbsmnjgcdwatb"; tr/a-z/oh, turtleneck Phrase Jar!/; print
    4. Re:Control group? by wvmarle · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Exactly what I was thinking. Especially as there are no Amish or so in Europe.

      Likely there will be no "control" as such and also no placebo group (after all proper medical research is done double blind with the real thing and placebo controls - however a placebo mobile phone just doesn't work), but there will be people that use their mobiles less than an hour a month, and others that don't put them down other than to change batteries. You can easily look at the difference between those two groups and still see whether mobile phone usage increases the risk. If there is a cancer risk, then more usage will increase this risk.

      And another option for a "control" is the period until say 1980 - when mobile phones did not exist. How about brain cancer rates in that period of time compared to now?

      Actually I think researchers should be able to find some effect simply by looking at total (brain)cancer rates in the population compared to mobile phone usage. Did the cancer rate, or the ratio of brain cancers vs. other cancers, increase over the last few decades?

      Most Western countries keep lots of statistics including all kinds of medical records, so such a research should be relatively simple to carry out (simple as in: the data is there already, just has to be compiled together - just a lot of work). I can't believe it hasn't been done yet, still I don't recall having read anything about such a project let alone that it would show brain cancer increases together with mobile phone use increases.

    5. Re:Control group? by maxume · · Score: 2, Interesting

      There are more than a few Amish that use cell phones.

      --
      Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
    6. Re:Control group? by ShadowRangerRIT · · Score: 2, Informative

      Using pre-1980 numbers for control won't work. Many forms of cancer have been increasing in prevalence over the years. The exact causes aren't known, but it's likely from a combination of reasons. Environmental contamination is one possibility; e.g. BPA and other hormone mimicking chemicals may affect the rates, as could other dietary changes like the increasing prevalence of salt, transfats and HFCS. Some or all of those may be harmless as far as cancer goes, but if any of them do matter, your control is worthless. More importantly, detection methods, particularly for brain cancer are *much* better. Traditional x-rays are useless for detecting most tumors, and the tests prior to 1970 were invasive and dangerous; not used unless there was an urgent need. Commercial CT scans weren't introduced until 1972, and they didn't spread quickly until the 80s. MRI, which is by far the best non-invasive detection method available at present, didn't even enter human trials until 1977. Sure, some cancer would be detected by the invasive, dangerous methods, or post-mortem at autopsy, but you're still going to have numbers that aren't remotely useful for this study.

      The presence of so many confounding factors makes it nigh unto impossible to attribute any effect to cell phones without a real study. For instance, CT scanners, which both detect brain cancer and deliver a dose of ionizing radiation, thereby increasing the risk of getting cancer in the first place, spread at roughly the same time wireless technology was taking off (maybe a decade or two before the cell phone craze, but in line with the spread of thousands of other wireless technologies that should be just as dangerous as a cell phone, assuming cell phone radiation is a threat). Same goes for the increased use of plastics (containing BPA) and HFCS as a sugar replacement. You'll never be able to separate out a specific cause, because too many potential cause all arose and spread in a similar time frame.

      I do agree that there won't be a proper control and test group with rigorous sorting (I said as much half an hour before you posted); they'll simply monitor minutes and look for patterns in heavy users vs. light users. But your suggestions to simulate a control group using historical data are flawed; the results of a study making such a comparison might get trumpeted in the media, but any decent medical journal would laugh them out of the room.

      That said, for a smaller scale study, it might be possible to pay individuals to use or not use a cell phone; if you pick from city dwellers or farm workers for both control and test (as opposed to suburban commuters), they'll have access to a phone when they need it 95% of the time anyway and might be willing to give it up for compensation. Or provide the control group with a cellphone with the builtin speaker and mic disabled, but with a wired handsfree device, so the radiation from the cell phone would be a few feet from the head; the inverse square law would mean they're getting a massively lower dose of radiation to the brain.

      --
      $_ = "wftedskaebjgdpjgidbsmnjgcdwatb"; tr/a-z/oh, turtleneck Phrase Jar!/; print
  7. 30 years... by Yvanhoe · · Score: 2, Interesting

    In 30 years, brain cancer may very well be a curable disease.

    --
    The Wise adapts himself to the world. The Fool adapts the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the Fool.
    1. Re:30 years... by ShadowRangerRIT · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Brain cancer, and brain diseases in general, are likely the last to be cured. Because on top of the whole "finding a cure for cancer in the first place", you need to be able to deliver the cure to the brain, and many drugs and chemicals will not pass the blood-brain barrier. And cancers of the brain are a tiny fraction of cancers; 1.4% overall, and 2.4% of deaths, so the priority is lower. So while I expect a few cancers to be effectively cured in that time frame, if any remain, brain cancer is likely to be one of them. Beyond that, the study could produce preliminary results well before the 30 years are up that may be useful; dismissing it due to the slow return on investment is ignoring the usefulness of the ongoing results.

      --
      $_ = "wftedskaebjgdpjgidbsmnjgcdwatb"; tr/a-z/oh, turtleneck Phrase Jar!/; print
  8. Re:Cell phone use in public == Neurological disord by Thanshin · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Problem:

    I commute by train to work, and must listen, involuntarily, to the conversations that cell phone addicts have, and who seem to think that what they have to say is important and should be shared with the rest of the world.

    Solution: Don't commute by train.

    General solution: Reduce interaction with strangers if you dislike such interaction.

    Rule: Reduce disliked situations.

    Law: Be happy.

  9. Re:Will the results be relevant ? by Stooshie · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The reason it is such a large study is to counteract the problems you mention (like some people may drink green tea and have a lower risk of cancer anyway). A big study makes it more likely that there are the same proportion of green tea drinkers in the control group and the test group.

    --
    America, Home of the Brave. ... .and the Squaw.
  10. Re:Results by SharpFang · · Score: 3, Funny

    And the cave people will be called Morlocks and the wave-people will be called Eloi...

    --
    45 5F E1 04 22 CA 29 C4 93 3F 95 05 2B 79 2A B2
  11. Re:What, now? by nedlohs · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I use my cell phone for about 2 hours a month. My wife uses her cell phone for about that much a day.

    I'm pretty sure they can find enough people with different usage levels such that unless there's a very low threshold for risk increase and there's no increase in risk with more use they'll be able to see an affect (if there is one at all).

  12. new category of story by argStyopa · · Score: 4, Insightful

    +1, we're going to keep studying this until it agrees with our preconceived ideas.

    --
    -Styopa
  13. Re:Cell phone use in public == Neurological disord by ShadowRangerRIT · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Yeah, cause I'll be way happier getting hit by one of these same morons making calls while they're driving?

    --
    $_ = "wftedskaebjgdpjgidbsmnjgcdwatb"; tr/a-z/oh, turtleneck Phrase Jar!/; print
  14. So you consider the matter already settled? by Benfea · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I don't have any opinion on the relationship between cell phone use and health. None. However, the more information the better, particularly in a field as fuzzy and complicated as health. Given how new cell phones are, I would be very much surprised if there was already enough research to consider the matter settled.

    Surely, if there is a correlation between cell phone use and this or that health problem, the effect is rather small. Otherwise, as others have noted, we would have already noticed the effect without the assistance of detailed research and statistical analysis. If a problem is found, hopefully sufficiently detailed research will help cell phone manufacturers make cell phones that minimize or even eliminate the effect.

  15. Wow! by gbutler69 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    It's comments like this on a site supposedly frequented by those most educated in science and engineering that make me believe that the future of our society and civilization is doomed to the ignorance and intellectual laziness of the masses. All the movies about zombies that get made are really about our innate understanding that our end will be at the hands of a mass of unthinking humanity that only wishes to engorge itself on the fruits of the "BRAINS"!

    --
    Over-the-top Response Guy! Giving "Over-the-Top Responses" since 1970.
    1. Re:Wow! by Mathinker · · Score: 2, Insightful

      It's comments like this on a site supposedly frequented by those most educated in science and engineering that make me believe that a good portion of these frequenters are doomed to ... give the rest of us a bad name.

      Yes, great, you may have a point there (I think you overestimate the ability of most people to have a broad knowledge of various subjects --- the post might have been made by a genius computer games programmer who has zero knowledge outside his narrow field of expertise, for example), but really, couldn't you have also explained to the poor, ignorant AC, whoever he is, that the radiation generated by a cell phone on standby is much smaller than that generated by the same phone being used for communication, and that he could have understood this himself if he had just thought about the fact that cell phone batteries are rated by how long they can power the phone in both modes from a full charge, and all cell phones have much longer full-charge standby times than full-charge talking times?

  16. Re:What, now? by blackfrancis75 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    .. many people are losing faith in science.

    IMHO Faith and Science are exact opposites.

  17. Re:What, now? by jibjibjib · · Score: 2, Informative

    An idle cellphone will transmit occasionally to tell the network it's still on, but not very often and not for very long. Something on the order of a few seconds per hour. The 2 hours per month might become 3 at a stretch, but certainly not 20 or 200.

  18. Non-Ionizing radiation by SciBrad · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Cannot break apart molecules. How exactly would an electromagnetic wave that can't ionize anything cause cancer? Usually to cause a cancer from radiation you need to cause some sort of ionization damage as far as I'm aware. Physics quite strongly says that these microwaves do not have the proper energy to do this, even if you have a lot of them. People can go on about 'heating effects' which is a common response I see to the non-ionizing radiation bit, but if that were the case, prolonged exposure to heat packs should also cause cancer. Luckily the body is quite good at dissipating heat. Based on physics there is no plausible mechanism for a cell phone to cause a cancer. The radiation just isn't energetic enough to break any bonds, and that is what counts.

  19. Re:What, now? by Kozz · · Score: 2, Insightful

    .. many people are losing faith in science.

    IMHO Faith and Science are exact opposites.

    Come on. It's an expression. I think you knew that. It's perfectly clear what the GPP meant.

    1. confidence or trust in a person or thing: faith in another's ability.

    --
    I only post comments when someone on the internet is wrong.
  20. There is faith in science (just very little) by jonaskoelker · · Score: 3, Insightful

    IMHO Faith and Science are exact opposites.

    There's a scientific meta-claim that submitting theories to trial by experiment (and discarding the theories which disagree with the world) is likely to produce good theories about how the world works.

    How would you verify this? Experimentally? Why would you believe that experimenting is a good way to learn the truth?

    Yes, in the end I'm asking "you believe that what you see (perceive) is a reasonably accurate reflecting of what the world really is like; why?" But my answer is still the same: there is an element of faith in science.

    That said, I want that kept small, carefully watched and well understood.

  21. Still a bad study by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Unfortunately, although it's better than studies that try to quantify exposure by asking people to self-estimate their cell phone use (these studies are completely lacking in value, unfortunately), it's still a bad study protocol.

    The kind of people who take steps to reduce their microwave radiation exposure from cell phones are, unfortunately, very likely to be the same kinds of people who take steps to reduce their exposure to other possible risks, some of which actually do cause cancer. Not all of these confounding factors can be adjusted out.

    Keep in mind the placebo study which showed that not only does the use of a placebo benefit health, but the people who take the placebo regularly and according to instructions benefit more than people who take the placebo less meticulously.

    --
    http://www.geoffreylandis.com