Slashdot Mirror


Was Flight Ban Over Ash an Overreaction?

HaymarketRiot writes "Richard Branson has claimed that the flight ban, due to the eruption of the volcano Eyjafjallajokull, was an overreaction on the part of the authorities. Britain's government has even called for the airlines to be compensated. This does look like a perfect excuse for already greedy airlines to try and get more money ... any experts care to comment on the effect of volcanic ash on planes?"

24 of 673 comments (clear)

  1. From what I've heard, it really is that bad... by seebs · · Score: 5, Informative

    Basically, the jet's internals are hot enough to melt rock back into glass... So after a couple of passes through ash clouds, you have a thin layer of glass covering all the internal turbine blades. Which completely destroys the engine, and is extremely hard to repair without completely replacing the blades.

    So, basically, what I've been told is that, yes, flying a jet through a volcanic ash cloud is a good recipe for completely destroying the engines, such that they need to be rebuilt, within two or three passes through the ash. It sounds plausible, and I've not yet heard anyone who actually does aircraft maintenance or anything like that suggest that it's harmless.

    --
    My blog: http://www.seebs.net/log/ --- My iPhone/iPad app: http://www.seebs.net/seebsfrac/
    1. Re:From what I've heard, it really is that bad... by BagOBones · · Score: 5, Informative

      Exactly, I am not sure why past tragedies have not been mentioned by ANY of the officials or NEWS networks..

      I remember seeing something about this on Discovery or History channel years ago and a quick search pointed me to British Airways Flight 9 on Wikipedia, all four engines FAILED!

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Airways_Flight_9

      --
      EA David Gardner -"... but the consumers have proven that actually what they want is fun."
    2. Re:From what I've heard, it really is that bad... by russ1337 · · Score: 5, Informative
      Agree, and the argument is more fundamental than that.

      Federal Aviation Regulation 25.1309 relates to airworthiness standards for aircraft, and the fundamental aspect of this regulation is system safety. Excerpt below, with emphasis:

      (a)The equipment, systems, and installations whose functioning is required by this subchapter, must be designed to ensure that they perform their intended functions under any foreseeable operating condition.
      (b) The airplane systems and associated components, considered separately and in relation to other systems, must be designed so that--
      (1) The occurrence of any failure condition which would prevent the continued safe flight and landing of the airplane is extremely improbable, and
      [(2) The occurrence of any other failure condition which would reduce the capability of the airplane or the ability of the crew to cope with adverse operating conditions is improbable.

      Firstly, Aircraft are not designed to fly through clouds of corrosive silica ash.

      Secondly, 'Extremely improbable' is defined in the Advisory Circular (AC 25.1309) to that regulation, which requires chance of catastrophic loss to be less than "extremely improbable" or "1x10^-9" chance of total loss. Techniques such as Fault Tree Analysis are used to allocate reliability of systems to sub-systems, so the entire aircraft can be built from components with realistic reliabilities. However, the volcanic ash offers a 'common mode' failure across all engines including gas turbine Auxiliary Power Units.

      The regulators have an obligation to ensure the chance of total loss of an aircraft due to flying through an ash cloud remains 'extremely improbable', i.e 1x10^-9.

      Also, if the airlines lost an aircraft because they were allowed to go flying, and were being sued by the families of the victims, they'd be screaming blue murder at the regulators saying they didn't do enough to protect the airlines.

    3. Re:From what I've heard, it really is that bad... by russ1337 · · Score: 4, Informative

      He is also going to be screwed by his engine repair facilities. Most airlines operate a 'power by the hour' arrangement for their engines with an Engine Overhaul facility (Maintenance Repair Organization (MRO) where they pay a fixed amount per flying hour. This comes with many conditions including "thou shalt not fly through volcanic ash".

      Come time to send the engine in for overhaul (after about operating 30,000hrs) if there is sufficient evidence of turbine erosion that can be attributed to volcanic ash then the airline will be stuck with the US$7M per engine invoice. My college (who deals with engine health monitoring and MRO's) reckons a medium sized airlines may be in the hole for US$2B should they're engines be exposed to ash.

      Branson is being a doosh on this one, and should thank his lucky stars the regulators kept him out of the sky.

    4. Re:From what I've heard, it really is that bad... by causality · · Score: 4, Informative

      While I know next to nothing about planes or volcanoes, I do know that volcanoes erupt along the pacific rim all the time, without the airspace of an entire continent having to be closed for a week. Apparently the authorities in the US just issue an advisory, and airlines just fly around the worst affected parts. Branson isn't the only airline director who went to the media saying that the flight ban went on far longer than was necessary, and that they fly through some levels of volcanic ash or desert dust every day.

      I think the "explosive" type of volcano that can hurl concentrations of ash into the air is just one specific type. I would guess that it's like Mt. St. Helens in that a magma flow encounters significant resistance, pressure behind it continues to build, and eventually the pressure reaches a point where the resistance is overcome suddenly and catestrophically, causing a huge explosion. By comparison, volcanoes like those in Hawaii tend to erupt frequently, and when they do, quantities of liquid lava well up from the ground and no sudden explosions or launches of ash take place.

      I am definitely not a volcanologist or a geologist. Having said that, it's possible that the kind of eruption that causes problems for airplanes is only one possible event of several or many possible events and may be a rarity.

      --
      It is a miracle that curiosity survives formal education. - Einstein
    5. Re:From what I've heard, it really is that bad... by leetrout · · Score: 5, Informative

      I think it's worth specifying that the wind screen becoming opaque wasn't from ash sticking to it, but was from the ash sand-blasting it. It had the same effect on the landing lights and with this incident happening at night, added yet another level of difficulty to the situation.

    6. Re:From what I've heard, it really is that bad... by Z00L00K · · Score: 4, Informative

      The difference here is that a volcano like the one on Hawaii does have frequent eruptions and the amount of water absorbed into the rock is low, but with volcanoes that seldom erupts and/or are located under glaciers you will get a lot of water involved which tends to create a fine dust cloud of the ash that spreads easily.

      The real culprit here is in fact water! When pressure drops you will get a chain reaction where water goes from liquid to gas form in a moment which results in several things; A quick cooling of the rock to solid state (transiting from liquid to gas costs energy), intense expansion of the mixed mass of lava/steam causing a powerful eruption and as the rock was rapidly cooled it will be brittle and easily cracked into very small particles that easily stays in the atmosphere for a long time.

      Now - this dust is essentially really fine sand particles, and when you fly through them they will sand blast the aircraft, but also they will melt in the jet engines possibly extinguishing the flame and cause deposits in the turbines. Under some conditions (depending on throttle of the engine, engine type and composition of the particles) they will not melt, but just sand blast the engines essentially acting as an engine cleaner - however since there are too many unknowns involved so you can't count on that.

      Anyway - engine damage to aircrafts is the major reason for the "No Fly" directive - an aircraft without engines will sooner or later make an unplanned landing and those are usually messy. Secondary issue is that the windshields of the aircrafts get sandblasted too so the pilots may have a hard time see what's in front of the aircraft. Missing the runway won't be good and make a mistake when taxing is embarrassing to say the least. Decreased view while in the air isn't that much of a problem as long as you have your instruments.

      --
      If builders built buildings the way programmers wrote programs, then the first woodpecker would destroy civilization.
    7. Re:From what I've heard, it really is that bad... by Goffee71 · · Score: 4, Informative

      The engine makers set the limit at 0, many years ago. The airlines were asked if they wanted a review of that in 2008. They ignored that offer, so it is the airlines fault, pure and simple. Any other argument is just posturing.

      --
      If he's the Walrus then can I be a penguin please?
    8. Re:From what I've heard, it really is that bad... by Wheely · · Score: 4, Informative

      They didn't take passengers up with them but they did say "hey we didn't die on our flight" in order to get public opinion to pressure the authorities into opening the airspace. The fact that the useful data obtained from their flight was as close to zero as makes no difference (and they knew it) was an irrelevance for them.

      You saw no volcanic ash because it was microscopic and several thousand feet in the air. The British scientific plane that went up, loaded with specialised instruments that could actually detect volcanic substances in the air and could test densities landed with the pilot saying they had a couple of scary moments. They could smell the sulphur and they wouldn't fly a jet liner up there.

      The cloud covered the whole of Europe from Scandinavia down to Northern Italy. There were no corridors that anybody could detect. They may have been there but if you cant find them, you cant fly along them.

      I am sorry you got stuck and I probably would have felt more like you in your situation but fortunately these kinds of decisions are not taken by people in desperate situations.

    9. Re:From what I've heard, it really is that bad... by jo_ham · · Score: 3, Informative

      The ferry and train services out of Europe were slammed from the minute the closure was announced. They just weren't set up to handle the sudden demand. The Eurostar has been booked solid ever since, and it still booked to capacity with the backlog of passengers.

      It's a great plan to take the Eurostar back - so great that everyone else had the same idea. There's a reason the British Royal Navy has been acting as a ferry service from European ports back to the UK - supply is far short of demand at the moment.

  2. Airline, not government, wants compensation by Dan+East · · Score: 4, Informative

    The summary is wrong. It is the founder of Virgin Atlantic that wants compensation, not the government. Has anyone ever heard of a government wanting to dish out compensation?

    --
    Better known as 318230.
  3. Boeing says it's not a good idea. by Moofie · · Score: 5, Informative

    Don't know if you put any stock in what an aircraft manufacturer might say on the subject, but...

    http://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/aero_09/volcanic_story.html

    Summary: If you find yourself flying into an ash cloud, turn around immediately.

    So, yeah, maybe Branson wants a check, but flying into ash clouds is a very bad idea. And they don't show up on weather radar.

    --
    Why yes, I AM a rocket scientist!
  4. Engines stalling enough for you? by Tony · · Score: 3, Informative

    I dunno. KLM Flight 867 lost all four engines after flying into Mt. Redoubt's ash plume, back in 1989. I was in Fairbanks at the time, and many people I know where stranded, trying to get home for Christmas vacation.

    Ash is not good for jet engines. Period.

    --
    Microsoft is to software what Budweiser is to beer.
    1. Re:Engines stalling enough for you? by gyrogeerloose · · Score: 5, Informative

      Hey moderators--look a little more closely and you'll notice that the so-called flamer and the person he flamed were the same people!

      --
      This ain't rocket surgery.
  5. As a pilot... by WarJolt · · Score: 4, Informative

    I know almost all regulations are written in blood. If the wind decides to shift and a plane goes down that's unacceptable.

  6. This has just been discussed over at ScienceBlogs by Opyros · · Score: 4, Informative

    Erik Klemetti's Eruptions blog has a recent post called Eyjafjallajökull flight cancellations: How the right decision is being made to look wrong defending the decision to cancel, with much discussion in the comments section. (IMO, that blog's recent series of posts on the Iceland situation has been the best place to read about the eruption.)

  7. Re:But that was with potato flour added. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

    That's a really telling translation. It appears as if the Google translator is trying to decipher the sentence in a way that assumes Finnish word suffixes are directly mapped to English prepositions. It saw the "sta" at the end of "perunajauhomaista" and assumed it means "from", and properly translated "perunajauho" as potato flour... Of course, the word is a form of "perunajauhomainen" which is an adjective that basically means "resembling potato flour" that was being used to describe the volcanic "ash dust".

  8. Eurocontrol right, Branson wrong by Animats · · Score: 4, Informative

    Shutting down most of Europe's airspace was entirely the right decision. All it would take is one flight through an unexpected dust cloud to produce a near-disaster, if not a crash. That's happened at least five times in the past. Read Boeing's advisory on volcanic ash.

    Read Branson's autobiography? Several times in his life, he's been involved in adventure vacations that left someone else dead. This is not someone you want making risk management decisions for others.

    The big problem now is that the airlines are botching the logistics of getting people back where they're supposed to be. There are people being told they can't get a flight until mid-May, because they booked a flight using frequent-flyer miles or via some discount deal that has a low priority. They can't get the airline on the phone, and they get hit with heavy roaming charges while on hold. This is really tough on people in transit running out of money.

  9. Damage by arikol · · Score: 3, Informative

    I would like to add that on the near accidents mentioned above the damage to the aircraft was also VERY extensive. The BA flight needed 4 new engines (around U$ 14 million EACH), new windows (more expensive than you would think), new pitot and static ports (and an overhaul of tubing and sensors) and a paintjob (big surface, costs quite a bit) as well as a thorough overhaul of pretty much everything.

    Even if no one dies it is still extremely expensive to fly accidentally into an ash cloud.

    I really don't think this was an overreaction. Safety must be paramount, and if only one or two aircraft had gone down due to ash that would have seriously impacted the publics faith in the airline industry and their view of safety. That would have been a lot more expensive in the long run, and the airline industry has spend decades building an image of themselves as super safety minded.

    And just for the record, I'm an ex-commercial pilot. From Iceland. I've flown smaller aircraft around volcanic eruptions and had great fun.

  10. Aerospace Engineer Angle by knapper_tech · · Score: 5, Informative

    The cooling system used in gas turbines (jet engines) is very sophisticated and necessary to keep the superalloy blades from creeping too fast. The system consists of bypass air channeled through the blades and exhausted through tiny perforations, creating a layer of cooler air between the blade and the hot flow from the combustor. Furthermore there are two ceramic layers on the outside of the blade. One to prevent oxidation. One to slow heat transfer (insulate). As has been mentioned in other articles, the cooling pores could get clogged by the ash. I also suspect the coating might fail if impacted by ash. If the coating fails or otherwise reacts with the ash, then you can definitely have a problem.

    If the blades get just a few tens of degrees hotter, they will surely fail. There's not a lot of margin for error with jet engines. Through good design and manufacturing control, we've managed to make gas turbines extremely reliable, but ash is not a design condition at all. It's abrasive, might react with the coating, and might accumulate on the blades, changing both their mass and aerodynamics.

    --
    "There are some people that if they don't know, you can't tell them." ~ Louis Armstrong
  11. Re:I am no expert ... by Maxmin · · Score: 5, Informative

    That's an apple-oranges comparison. The video shows a GE-Honda HF120 turbine, a 2,000 lb two-stage, two-compressor turbofan designed for the light jet market. A very different design from...

    Commercial airline engines are rated from 14,000 (old-school Boeing 737) to over 100,000 (Boeing 777) pounds.

    Aside from that, the difference in scale of a fine volcanic ash particle compared with a grain of sand determines the melt rate. Volcanic ash passing through a turbine is essentially a fluid, one that melts at around 1000 C. Aggregate sand (in the video) melt between 1500-1700 C.

    Turbofan combustion chambers burn at between 1500-2000 C. Grains of sand are too thick to melt, given the airflow rate through an engine (250-1400 mph.)

    --
    O lord, bless this thy holy hand grenade, that with it thou mayest blow thine enemies to tiny bits, in thy mercy.
  12. Norway by andersh · · Score: 4, Informative

    That's the problem, I'm not from a major European country. I'm Norwegian. Norway took the correct measures to stave off any negative effects (according to the OECD). Jobs, banks and housing markets remained stable. We have 2.6% unemployment.

    While there might be more to the story than simply having regulated our banking industry we did very well during this recession. It doesn't hurt that we're the world's 3rd largest exporter of oil, or that we have no national debt, and put our oil revenue in a huge sovereign fund invested abroad. We base our welfare state on taxes, not on oil revenue.

    Part of the reason our banks were already regulated was the fact that during the 1980s Norway had its own bank crisis and housing market crash. The government had to take control of the collapsed banks and rebuild them. Since then our banks have been strictly regulated and the housing market stable.

    The UK was badly hit by the recession obviously, but Germany has been out of recession for a long time now. Germany is the major nation in Europe. I believe France technically came out of recession too. Spain, Portugal and Greece are not large countries. I doubt you can find a European country that experienced the recession on the scale of the US.

    I can provide a source too if you like: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2009217763_norway14.html

  13. Re:Business Interests, Not Safety Concerns by dunkelfalke · · Score: 4, Informative

    Dude, maybe you should just stop thinking, because thinking doesn't work very well for you. I mean, 10-20 percent? You are basically saying that you don't have any hard data and just pulling some number out of your arse, then adding that the figure might be twice as high.
    Well, I've got news for you. In 2008 the unemployment rate in France was at 7.9%. Now the unemployment rate in France is 9.7%, which is exactly the same rate as in the USA.
    Judging from your other postings here you are just a selfish prick who has missed his flight and had to stay in Frankfurt/Main. Dude, as someone who lives in Frankfurt, I can only say that I am very glad that you finally went back from whence you came. It is people like you who give Americans a bad name.

    --
    "It's such a fine line between stupid and clever" -- David St. Hubbins, Spinal Tap
  14. Let's see... by k.a.f. · · Score: 3, Informative
    • We do know that ash particles in high concentration can case jet engines to fail very quickly.
    • However, we do not know where the threshold for criticality is, because we have next to no experience with such incidents, and the manufacturers don't know either.
    • We also do not know very well how high the concentration is at any given point, because radar is useless for measuring it, and satellites are next to useless.

    So that's an easy one: no, it wasn't.