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Bill Gates's The Road Ahead, 15 Years Later

Posted by kdawson on from the answer-unclear-try-again dept.

smooth wombat writes "It's been 15 years since Bill Gates wrote his book The Road Ahead, in which he talks about how technology would shape the future. In the intervening years, technology has changed many aspects of our lives for better and worse. So how did Bill do on his predictions? The Atlantic takes a look at the hits and misses of some of his prognostications. Overall, it appears Bill let optimism guide his thoughts, except when it came to the Internet — his biggest miss of all."

26 of 280 comments (clear)

  1. Microsoft best innovation. by ls671 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I feel like Microsoft has never developed a key software innovation and is not that good at predictions. I guess a lot of people feel the same as me. They are excellent at marketing their products and at keeping a healthy business although.

    I searched Google with the terms "Microsoft innovation" and "Microsoft best innovation" to try to prove myself wrong but I did not find anything. Try it for yourself.

    The best innovation from Microsoft I could think of is DOS, but it was originally written to IBM specs then Microsoft recycled it into MS-DOS which is more a profiting after the fact attitude.

    So here we go slashdotters: What is the best innovation Microsoft has brought to us and/or which Microsoft prophecy turned out to be the best prediction ?

    http://www.dwheeler.com/innovation/microsoft.html

    --
    Everything I write is lies, read between the lines.
    1. Re:Microsoft best innovation. by Pop69 · · Score: 4, Funny

      See, the problem is you're searching on Google.

      Try Bing, I'm sure it will be full of wonderful Microsoft innovations

    2. Re:Microsoft best innovation. by MickyTheIdiot · · Score: 4, Interesting

      DOS is not a great innovation. DOS, like most Microsoft products, is just a rework of someone's earlier innovation. If there is innovation there it's in how they adapted well established systems (like CP/M and, even earlier, BASIC) from Mainframe and Mini computers to much less powerful PCs and home computers. Bill Gates is good at that, but he by no means has been an inventor. At best he's dumbed down many of the best computer innovations so he can get them through the front door of offices and homes.

    3. Re:Microsoft best innovation. by c++0xFF · · Score: 5, Insightful

      What is the best innovation Microsoft has brought to us?

      The BSOD, of course. Bob and Clippy are tied for 2nd place.

    4. Re:Microsoft best innovation. by Monkeedude1212 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Visual Studio per se probably isn't innovative, but it's a really stable product and better than anything else on the market. Microsoft also used to publish great and also innovative games (why not anymore?)

      You hit VS right on the head - it's not really anything new, but the features that they add to each version are usually pretty rock solid in their implementation. Not a whole other suites were offering LINQ - but they were there. Microsoft just made it easier to use those kinds of features.

      As for the games, its a lot like their web content. Most of the games Microsoft has made have been other dev studios being purchased or bought out or simply backed by Microsoft. Microsoft put their name on Halo, even though it was Bungie's work. They also have their name on the Age of Empires, though that was ensemble studios. Perhaps the only one I can think of that was MS was Microsoft's Flight Simulator.

      As for innovation, perhaps people shouldn't be expecting it from these large companies. In essence, a lot of the newer technologies today come from some super intelligent geek who has a dream to make it real. So once they get out of MIT or wherever, they start their project, demo it at TED or some festival, than they either get picked up by one of these corporations or their idea gets stolen.

    5. Re:Microsoft best innovation. by harlows_monkeys · · Score: 5, Interesting

      So here we go slashdotters: What is the best innovation Microsoft has brought to us...

      The "brought to us" part is the hard part. Plenty of important innovation has happened at Microsoft, but they aren't that good at turning it into products.

      For example, Microsoft researchers developed a kind of help system that observed what a user did, and learned their use patterns, and was able to recognize when they were having trouble with something and offer suggestions. It worked very well, mostly only interrupting with suggestions when you were in genuine need of help.

      When this moved from the lab to the product people, the marketing people loved it, but complained that it didn't show up enough. They wanted to advertise this great feature, but if the typical user only actually saw it do something once a week or so, that would suck (from the salesman's point of view). So marketing forced the people implementing to turn the thresholds way down, and make it pop up a lot, with often inane suggestions. And that's how Clippy went from being perhaps the most sophisticated automated assistant in the world when it was in the lab, to perhaps the most annoying automated pest in the world when it ended up in products.

      Another good example is statistical spam filtering. Microsoft internally had one of the earliest, and best, spam handling systems. They also were the first (in a partnership with outside researchers at, I think, Stanford) the first to publish academic papers on Bayesian filtering. But it was others who picked up on this and wrote articles for the non-academic crowd that made outside programmers aware of these techniques, and so few realize Microsoft was one of the pioneers here.

      Their spam filtering actually went far beyond just filtering for spam. At one time they had a system internally that could look at your incoming mail, analyze it, figure out what it was about, and rank the importance of it. This was tied in with other systems, such as the web cam on your computer and the microphone on your computer. The web cam could watch you, and the microphone listen to what was going on in your office. If it say and heard that you were meeting with others, it could see who they were, and hear what you are talking about, analyze that and figure out its importance, and decide if the mail you just received can wait or is important enough to interrupt you.

      Aside from one or two articles in the press that mentioned this system as part of stories profiling research at MS, I've not heard anything about it since. It apparently never made it to any kind of product development stage. Someday, someone else will do it all the way through to product (Google's a good candidate), and no one will remember that Microsoft had it first.

    6. Re:Microsoft best innovation. by need4mospd · · Score: 5, Funny
      It looks like you're trying to write a snarky comment about Microsoft. Would you like to:

      - Make references to the instability of the operating system

      - Discuss alternate software or operating systems that may be more functional

      - Spell Microsoft with a dollar sign

    7. Re:Microsoft best innovation. by mcgrew · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Bing itself was innovative from Microsoft, even so far that Google copied Bing's sidebar from them,

      I keep hearing about this sidebar, mostly from people who hate it, but I've never seen it, either at work in IE6 on XP or at home on Firefox on Win7 (wish I could figure out how to install Mandriva on a netbook). I can't figure that out, either. Is the sidebar an iGoogle thing? At any rate, what good is an innovation everyone seems to hate?

      and Bing was the first one to demonstrate and introduce real-time 3D video mapped into street view.

      I not only didn't know Bing had anything like street view, I can't even find it on Bing. Googling "streetview" on Bing gives me only satellite images and links to Google Streetview.

      Google isn't really that innovative either. They're different, sure, but any larger "innovation" they've done has come from smaller companies they have bought

      You must be new here -- to the internet, I mean. Google's biggest innovation was their pagerank, which actually gives meaningful results. Before Google, Infoseek was the best search engine, and we didn't even realize how badly it sucked until Google came along. And infoseek was head and shoulders above MS's search (yes, MS had search before Google existed. It just wasn't any good).

      I think Courier was quite innovative.

      Vaporware isn't innovation.

      Visual Studio per se probably isn't innovative, but it's a really stable product

      So what's your point? You were responding to a comment about MS's lack of innovation, not its lack of stability. What makes you such a MS fan? Yes, I like Excel and consider it the best spreadsheet I've used (better than Quattro, Lotus, or Open Office spreadsheet), but so what?

      Microsoft still spends millions into R&D while Apple does nothing like that.

      What you spend on R&D isn't important, the results of that R&D are. They spent millions on Vista alone, and even Ballmer says it was a dog. As to Apple, I think the iPod and iPhone prove you wrong even though I don't have one of either, or for that matter any Apple product (I think all of Apple's stuff is way overpriced). You think they didn't expend any money on R&D for those products?

      Large companies cant afford taking that kind of risks and losing.

      They can and they do. Streetview was an incredibly expensive risk no startup could possibly have accomplished, and the iPod was certainly a risky and expensive endeavor. Not to mention the Prius, SpaceShip Two, etc. The Edsel didn't bankrupt Ford.

      What division of MS do you work for? If not, why are you so gung-ho about Microsoft? I like a few of their offerings, but by and large most of the stuff I've had the displeasure of using sucked badly and were in no way innovative.

      --
      Free Martian Whores!
    8. Re:Microsoft best innovation. by Chris+Mattern · · Score: 4, Interesting

      What about Office?

      Office is the sum of its parts, which were originally separate. Word was built on a prototype called Bravo that Microsoft bought from Xerox PARC. Access and Excel appear to be MS originals, though. Fun fact: Excel 1.0 was a Mac exclusive. Not until 2.0 (actually, 2.05) was there Excel for Windows.

  2. Re:To Acknowledge One's Mistake Is One Thing by spun · · Score: 5, Interesting

    You forgot, "never show empathy." And now we have a complete diagnosis: sociopath. Only sociopaths have what it takes to succeed in modern business, everyone else is just too weak. We used to shun or kill monsters, now we elevate them to the status of Gods.

    --
    - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
  3. Email... by Knara · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Does anyone really work for an organization that 1) has people who regularly don't get emails and 2) is encouraging people to use email less?

    Seems like workflow problems, not email problems.

  4. Still worked out better than my own predictions by Skyshadow · · Score: 5, Funny

    It's easy to make fun of Bill for his predictions, but I'll admit my own haven't worked out so great either. Here from 1995:

    - By 2010, as many as 1 out of every 25 people will have an email account, causing massive slowdown of the FidoNet.
    - I'll never be that old guy who gets his video-game ass handed to him by 13 year olds.
    - Register sex.com? Nah, that'd be a waste of $100.
    - Being a programmer will be a totally safe field -- it's not like people in India will suddenly all get computers and start coding.

    Ouch.

    --
    Every year during my review, I just pray the words "slashdot.org" aren't mentioned.
  5. Microsoft purchased DOS. by Futurepower(R) · · Score: 4, Informative

    Quote: Microsoft purchased 86-DOS, allegedly for $50,000. It was an improvement of the CP/M operating system.

  6. still no progress in .... by u19925 · · Score: 5, Funny

    "The obvious mathematical breakthrough would be development of an easy way to factor large prime numbers." (p.265)

    1. Re:still no progress in .... by pjt33 · · Score: 4, Informative

      I can factor large prime numbers really easily.

  7. face to face by citylivin · · Score: 4, Insightful

    "But friendships formed online don't regularly lead to face-to-face meetings."

    The author of this retrospective was dead wrong. I know plenty of people who chat on facebook and then meetup in real life. Its generally for dating purposes. Not to mention craigslist, and the multitude of online games, fourms and other avenues to connect your real life to the internet. Infact, I think gates was more prescient than the author is giving him credit for. If you had asked me 15 years ago, I would have said that was unlikely as everyone uses pseudonames and tries hard to hide their real selves.

    This is clearly no longer the case, so I think gates was correct that the "superhighway" has led to more face to face interactions.

    --
    As a potential lottery winner, I totally support tax cuts for the wealthy
  8. Gates Miss on Networking actually a Hit. by jedidiah · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I disagree with the networking assessment. Even the fastest "home" wireless is still significantly slower than consumer wired ethernet. Higher end wired networking is faster still. Also, while wireless might seem at least barely adequate at home, it can quickly become unusable outside the home. 3G coverage is spotty and often completely unusable. Wireless still has a ways to go. Although of course there are always some that push technology and those that don't.

    Although the main problem with wireless is security, not speed.

    --
    A Pirate and a Puritan look the same on a balance sheet.
  9. Re: Never Seen a Quote from Bill's Book by Black+Parrot · · Score: 4, Funny

    that is why he left for something he was fully qualified to do: give away money.

    I liked the Jon Stewart comment after the police raid over the lost iPhone:

    [in confused voice, after reminding us of the Apple "1984" commercial:] 'Apple is busting down doors in Palo Alto and Bill Gates is killing mosquitoes in Africa.'

    --
    Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
  10. Ballmer by sckirklan · · Score: 4, Funny

    The Steve Ballmer developer jam. Although not foretold in Gates' book.

  11. Re:So what? by jedidiah · · Score: 4, Interesting

    No. When that book was written, it was already obvious that the Internet was going to kill off proprietary services like Prodigy and AOL. By the time that the net came along those services were OLD. They were an OLD model. They were long overdue for a disruption. Any technophile worth his salt should have seen this. More likely, Gates saw his interest lying in replacing AOL and wanted to push that idea whether he thought it was likely or not.

    He simply wanted to try and push the world into his particular Walled Garden.

    What a businessman tells you can't be taken at face value.

    Ultimately he's going to want to sell you something.

    --
    A Pirate and a Puritan look the same on a balance sheet.
  12. The real prediction by ch-chuck · · Score: 4, Funny

    He could easily have predicted, "In the future, I'll still be filthy rich" - not one to be careless with money.

    --
    try { do() || do_not(); } catch (JediException err) { yoda(err); }
  13. Re:To Acknowledge One's Mistake Is One Thing by spun · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I would say rather, it has changed, to a high water mark in the 1950s, when the top tax bracket was 90%, but has changed back as the monsters fought back. Of course, I'm sure we all agree that we need to stop them at all costs. One can not bargain nor reason with monsters.

    That is the true purpose of government, the people banding together to protect themselves from those who would oppress and abuse them. It is our duty, as individuals and citizens, to do everything in our power to stop them.

    In any case, whether I am right or you are right about what has come before, I hope we can agree that being led about by monsters is not the optimal state of affairs, and we need to change things so society does not favor sociopaths. Sociopaths do not deserve the freedom to oppress others without consequences. No one does.

    --
    - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
  14. Re:To Acknowledge One's Mistake Is One Thing by RazorSharp · · Score: 5, Interesting

    You're right. I remember reading a study in a psychology class about how sociopathic CEOs tended to be. If not a sociopath, they tend to be obsessive compulsive. Think about it: most people, if paid as much as a Fortune 500 CEO, would retire after one year. Being a CEO is extremely stressful and most will never utilize the vast amounts of wealth they acquire. For them, business is a game that they just can't put down.

    I think Microsoft with Gates/Balmer are a prime example of this. Their willingness to sink more resources into a project than it will profit for the sake of market-share demonstrates that they view business as a game of Monopoly. Look at the XBox, Bing, and IE. Gates cares more about his legacy than anything else. He cares more about having credit for modern technological achievements than actually contributing to society. Just look at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. I know it's taboo to criticize, but as the Priest in A Clockwork Orange said, "What does God want? Does God want goodness or the choice of goodness?" Intentions and motivations matter, and Gates has demonstrated time after time that he is motivated by selfishness and arrogance. If he cared about technological progress he wouldn't try to beat the competition to the market with half-assed products, stagnate progress once he has a lock on a market, and make an enemy of open source. If he cared about helping people then he wouldn't insist on being given credit for it with interviews every time his foundation spends a few cents. He's a sociopath.

    --
    "From the depths of my skeptical and rationalist soul, I ask the Lord to protect me from California touchie-feeliedom."
  15. Well, Marvin Minsky was wrong too. by dbuttric · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I was in the AI lab at MIT, testing my wits against LISP. In walks Marvin Minsky.

    I asked him if he could give me a tip or two about atoms.

    His response to me was: "Well, why dont you wait until the computer speaks your language... Then program it in that?"

    That was alot longer ago than 15 years...

  16. How are these misses? by digiplant · · Score: 5, Insightful

    1) Email - Seems to me that his statement is a "hit". Email does alleviate the need for as many meetings and does allow my collegues and I to show up more informed. You really have to question the author's judgement if he doesn't think this was the biggest "hit" of all. Email has definitely changed the way I collaborate. This author wants us to believe that he never reviews documents that were emailed to him before a meeting?

    2) Social Networking - Again, what planet does this person live on? Not the planet earth where facebook gets more daily hits than google? This is so ridiculous he would call this a miss in any way. I definitely interact with people I would've otherwise lost contact with daily. I've also met several people online and then in real life.

    3) Online Shopping - Here the author is relying too much on Gates's exact words, and not the spirit of his statement. The internet has definitely revolutionized online shopping. Every book I buy, I first explore inside on amazon. When I was looking for cars, I find many online videos about it. When I rent a hotel, I can take a 360 view tour to make sure it is as swank as I would like it to be.

    4) The Internet and The Web - Again, I just don't see how Gates was really wrong here. The Internet is just part of the "information superhighway", albeit a large piece. I connect with private market data feeds from all over the world at work. I watch tv on my sprint cell phone. I use gps signal from satellites. I send text messages on my phone. I watch tv on my cable tv system. I play games against my friends over Xbox Live. I have a private network at home that I share video and music on. I buy quicken at best buy to manage my finances which also connects to my bank accounts. I also of course browse the web and send email.

    I could probably go on. The point is that this article either biased or wrong, maybe both.

  17. I'm tired of this dissing of Microsoft by rigorrogue · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Seriously.

    I've been a *nix user since 1996. I'm a fan. I try and turn people to the light side every day. Linux rocks seismically.

    But I'm fed up of too many idiots dissing the researchers at Microsoft. Sure, the company makes dumb-ass decisions. What do you expect? Their responsibility is to shareholders, whose interest is clear and short-term by and large.

    Check out their research.

    Here's their latest sidebar snippet:

    Understanding the Rainforest Ecosystem
    http://research.microsoft.com/c/1101/en-us/news/features/rainforest-051910.aspx

    The company, with its billions, employs some of the most productive and interesting research in applied Information Theory in the world. Yes , they suck at implementations for end users because they're committed to some daft User Interface decisions. But fuck, do they hire and fund well.

    My favorite is Haskell. Guess who funds Simone Peyton-Jones? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon_Peyton_Jones). Microsoft.

    Microsoft is a company. It's an independent personality in law. Its responsibility is to its owners. And that would all be evil and everything except that _lots_ of fine upstanding pillars of the academic community take Microsoft's shilling to pay the bills and still work on AMAZING technology.

    We /.ers love to praise Google, dis M$, scorn Apple, and worship *nix. Dumb. It's an ecosystem. We all contribute. Sure it's competitive. We all win.

    Or am I just an idiot?

    --
    science in government