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Why No Billion-Dollar Open Source Companies?

Glyn Moody writes "If open source is such a success, why aren't there any billion-dollar turnover open source companies? A recent briefing by Red Hat's CEO, Jim Whitehurst, to a group of journalists may provide an answer. Asked why Red Hat wasn't yet a $5 billion company, as he suggested it would be one day, he said getting Red Hat to $5 billion meant 'replacing $50 billion of revenue' currently enjoyed by traditional computer companies. If, as is likely, that's generally true for open source companies, it means they will need to displace around $10 billion of proprietary business in order to achieve a billion-dollar turnover. Few are likely to do that. Perhaps it's time for managers of open source startups to stop chasing the billion-dollar dream. If they don't, they will set unrealistic ambitions for themselves, disappoint their investors, and allow opponents of free software to paint one of its defining successes — saving money — as a failure."

20 of 487 comments (clear)

  1. Pftt by somersault · · Score: 4, Insightful

    they will [..] paint one of its defining successes — saving money — as a failure.

    Hmm.. so they're bringing in 10% of the revenue of non open source equivalents - basically meaning that their clients need to spend 90% less.. how is that not saving money?

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    which is totally what she said
    1. Re:Pftt by PatHMV · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Well, the idea behind open source companies is that the software is free, and the company pays for support. Thus, no licensing fees for the development, and ONLY the support costs associated with being able to call and talk to a support personnel. That's where the savings comes in to the end-user client.

    2. Re:Pftt by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      because we all know that closed source programs require zero administration time.

    3. Re:Pftt by mcvos · · Score: 5, Insightful

      And the advantage of this is that customers who call with a problem actually get a useful answer. They're paying for that support, rather than for the license.

    4. Re:Pftt by Culture20 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Open Source is only 90% cheaper if your time is worth 10%.

      Best joke ever.
      If I had to rate difficulty of OS maintenance and setup, it would be:
      Microsoft (Any), Most difficult
      Solaris
      Mac OS X
      Linux (Any except gentoo), easiest

    5. Re:Pftt by commodore64_love · · Score: 5, Insightful

      >>>the software is free, and the company pays for support.

      What if I don't need support? That's why Red Hat and other liberated software companies will probably never see 1 billion. Bottom Line: A lot of us are cheapasses. ;-)

      --
      "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - historian Evelyn Beatrice Hall
    6. Re:Pftt by oakgrove · · Score: 5, Insightful

      All you have to do is pop-in a CD and install. After that the system usually has everything the user needs (web browser, Microsoft Office, etc).

      I don't know where you're getting your Windows CD's but I've never seen one that came with a preinstalled copy of Office. However, practically every copy of Linux comes with OpenOffice.org.

      my Linux laptop refuses to execute flash websites (like disney.com or tv.com)

      Which Linux? Which Browser? I've never seen Ubuntu fail to install and run Flash and version 6 of the Chrome Browser comes with Flash nowadays.

      And I can't get it to talk to my Netscape ISP.

      I can't get Windows 7 to talk to my scanner. I'll talk to my scanner manufacturer and you talk to your ISP.

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      The soylentnews experiment has been a dismal failure.
    7. Re:Pftt by b4dc0d3r · · Score: 5, Informative

      Very large companies need to have a disaster recovery plan in place, and contacts to call when downtime is costing money. Especially outsourcing or service providers. If you run linux in this environment, "my team knows linux" is not going to cut it. You want to be able to place the blame on the "vendor" as opposed to being responsible yourself. So you don't modify the code, and you buy the support package.

      Red Hat should be very profitable, given that, except Microsoft makes sweetheart deals with the big companies to keep them using microsoft tools. I have a full MSDN subscription, which would cost me piles of money but most likely costs my employer very little per head. I can download and use and develop with anything I want, for free. It only costs money because the production servers have to be fully licensed and legit.

      Microsoft is everywhere, so they can afford to give away freebies, charge for just the production installs, and still make boatloads of cash. If you take a look at the revenue compared to actual software usage, I wouldn't be surprised to find that Microsoft is giving away as much or more software than Red Hat. Direct end-user sales are just the icing on the cake - someone paying full price for Windows is very rare, it's usually OEM cost, which is approximately 10% of the cost. So Red Hat's numbers are probably not far off Microsoft's numbers, it's just reported as software sales vs. support costs. And even that difference is a technicality - Microsoft still charges for support depending on what you need and where you got the software.

      Fundamentally, it's the same business model. Give lots of software away and make up for the sales losses with support charges - but with OEMs in the middle it's not transparent to the end users. Only the businesses see how the model truly works.

  2. Um, IBM, Intel, Xerox by linzeal · · Score: 5, Insightful

    There are almost too many to count when it comes to billion dollar companies involved in open source. They are the main motivator in new Linux kernel development and amongst 100's of other projects including Apache, Perl, MySQL etc you will find @email's from dozens of billion dollar companies in the dev-lists. O'Reilly himself squashed some of these rumors about open source himself over 11 years ago now, so why discuss this? It is just going to turn into a flame war about licenses and corporate responsibility.

    1. Re:Um, IBM, Intel, Xerox by NervousWreck · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Agreed. People assume open-source means twelve-year-olds in basements and "commies." Very few think about the fact that multi-billion dollar companies are involved.

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      I do not have a sig. You are hallucinating.
  3. Re:What about Google? by Lunix+Nutcase · · Score: 5, Insightful

    You mean the same multiple open-source side projects that add little to nothing to their bottom line? Google gets it's money from it's proprietary search engine and ad platform.

  4. Huh? by PopeRatzo · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Why no building dollar bicycle-pump manufacturers? Why no billion-dollar indie record labels? Why no billion-dollar oil companies that have not polluted? Why are there no billion-dollar hockey franchises?

    Asking why there are no "billion-dollar" open source companies is kind of stupid. Considering how much of the very fabric of the Internet and the web are open source, I'd suggest that if "open source" disappeared tomorrow, a lot of "billion-dollar" companies wouldn't be worth anywhere near a billion dollars.

    This story is the Slashdot equivalent of "If you're so smart, why ain't you rich?"

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    You are welcome on my lawn.
  5. They get bought out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    A quick search on the Internet revealed that a lot of them get bought out.
    http://royal.pingdom.com/2008/02/06/the-seven-largest-open-source-deals/

    Sun buys MySQL, $1 billion, 2008
    Sun now has their hands on the world’s most widely used open source database.

    Red Hat buys Cygnus Solutions, $675 million, 1999
    Red Hat started the open source acquisition race early when they bought Cygnus Solutions, providers of open source software support.

    Citrix buys XenSource, $500 million, 2007
    Considering how hot virtualization is right now, we can see why Citrix bought XenSource, the company behind the Xen virtualization software.

    Yahoo buys Zimbra, $350 million, 2007
    Yahoo already have their own email services, and with Zimbra they got an integrated email, messaging and collaboration software.

    Red Hat buys JBoss, $350 million, 2006
    Red Hat strengthened their SOA offerings by buying the JBoss Java application server.

    Novell buys SUSE, $210 million, 2003
    Novell got their own Linux distribution by buying SUSE.

    Nokia buys Trolltech, $153 million, 2008
    Trolltech is the company behind the Qt GUI framework which is used by the popular Linux desktop environment KDE.

  6. You make more money using open source than selling by number6x · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Just ask Google.

    Why should your profits go to Adobe, Microsoft, IBM, Oracle and all those other closed source companies? Look at the .com companies that survived the 'dot bomb' era. They used open source.

    Using expensive proprietary solutions is a sure way to increase your expenses and decrease your profits.

    How do you become an open source billionaire? Ask Sergey Brin and Larry Page.

  7. Because of the Concept of Intellectual Property by eldavojohn · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Copyright laws and software patents make traditional closed source business models too lucrative. And while copyright and patent infringement may still occur, it is a better model to chase in the eyes of investors because a company like Microsoft will offer them reports on how much money is lost to such things and claim that as potential profit or unrealized profit or put it on the balance sheet to make investor's eyes light up. How much "theft" (don't jump on me for using it, that's what Microsoft calls it) do you think Red Hat suffers from? Not a whole lot, I'd imagine as I believe the bulk of their profit comes from support and that support is kinda hard to steal.

    Anyway, if copyright laws didn't exist for software? Well, you'd see companies like Microsoft fall apart and companies like Red Hat thrive. Because the business model would shift from protecting your source code through litigation to making it available for free since that would be the only way to effectively combat piracy. Right now, the system is so screwed up that even when the original Windows becomes public domain, no one is going to have the source code and if they do they're not going to release it. I almost wish the Library of Congress kept a proprietary source library if that didn't leave to government abuse and a multitude of problems with huge security concerns.

    As a young idealist, I once thought that open source should be welcomed by all since there's an infinite amount of code that the populations will always need written. If they don't need an operating system, they need a web server. If they don't need web server software, they'll need the specific application on a per company basis. Ad infinitum. And therefore you shouldn't fight open source when you're generating revenue from such a general purpose and widely used tool. Unfortunately I came to understand copyright, marketing and how Microsoft keeps making bank on Windows despite it being -- in my opinion -- an inferior product. And so my logic was inherently flawed--especially in the eyes of stockholders and lawmakers. Such skewing of profits between open and closed source companies reveal this.

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    My work here is dung.
  8. Ask the opposite and get the same answer by SpazmodeusG · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Try asking why are there no billion-dollar companies using 100% CLOSED source software?

    The answer is simply because billion dollar companies dabble in a bit of everything. Oracle has a lot of open source products. It also has a lot of closed source products. Same with IBM, Microsoft, Google, Apple, etc etc. If you don't consider these billion dollar companies to be open source companies then you can't consider them to be a closed source companies either. They all dabble in a bit of both because they are all really big.

  9. Re:What about Google? by Lunix+Nutcase · · Score: 4, Insightful

    So what? This article wasn't about multi-billion dollar companies leveraging open source for their bottom line. It was about companies selling and supporting open source products that they create.

  10. Re:What about Google? by Lunix+Nutcase · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Neither. I'm merely pointing out the facts which are that the Linux kernel they use is an internal, proprietary fork, their GoogleFS is proprietary, and the version of Ubuntu they use is an internal and proprietary fork. Why would it make me a troll to make sure that the entire story is heard?

  11. Re:What about Google? by dave420 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Socialism is the realisation that a large proportion of a population are so self-centered and selfish that they simply don't realise the benefit of helping everyone in their society. "Without giving me nothing in return" - what are you smoking? If I have to give you examples, then you clearly don't have a fucking clue about what you're talking about. Your logic is a fucking joke.

  12. Re:What about Google? by iceaxe · · Score: 4, Insightful

    So when you grow a garden, you only grow exactly how much food you need to eat an no more, because producing extra profit is evil right?

    Nobody said that.

    You seem to not understand what capitalism and free markets are.

    Too easy, I'll pass.

    You're leaving out the part that says anyone, regardless of class, race, sex, or anything can, if they choose, pursue as much profit as they wish. You don't even have to work if you don't want to. You can choose to sit on a corner and beg like a lot of people do. Capitalism and free markets are essential to freedom.

    This is where my BS meter went into the red. This would be true ONLY in a condition of true equality, which condition cannot exist in the real world. In the real world, a noticeable percentage of people lie, cheat, steal, commit violence against each other, discriminate unfairly against people who look, sound, or act different from themselves, and generally are complete bastards whenever they think they can get away with it.

    This is why idealistic ideology falls apart in the face of actual events, whether it's capitalism, communism, libertarianism, or benign authoritarianism. All of these theoretical ideals offer important insights, and should be pursued, but should be recognized as measurements, not goals. The human experiment thus far tends to suggest that a balance of competing ideals is the most workable solution. We must learn to recognize that going too far in ANY direction causes more problems than it solves.

    Luckily, most of humanity realizes this, and acts accordingly, with local variations and frequent missteps. You know this, yourself, as you proceed to demonstrate:

    When government takes my work away from me in the form of taxes and uses it for schools, police, or fire departments, I don't really mind. It beats going out and actually helping build a road myself. Instead of working on a sewer system, I can do other work that I freely choose to do and trade that work in the form of money for a sewer system. Everyone benefits, including me, and I get something in exchange for my work.

    Aha! So, what you are saying, I think, is that in some cases the collective good outweighs personal freedom and absolute capitalism. An interesting twist of phrasing, working "freely choose" in there. But an essential recognition of truth at some level.

    Under socialism, when government takes my money and gives it to another person without giving me anything in return, that is no different than forcing me to work for that person for free, getting nothing in return. That is the very definition of slavery.

    Oh dear, now you contradict yourself. If your house does not catch fire, was your tax money wasted on the fire department? Please step away from the loaded words for a moment. Notice that, sans the "S" word, you just described the same situation as your previous statement, only this time instead of "freely choose" we have "Socialism" (shudder).

    Newsflash: Collective action, in the form of taxation and government services, OF ANY KIND, is a form of "Socialism". Here's a useful set of definitions. See especially definition number one.

    So, your defense system, court system, fire service, police service, border guards, etc. etc. are all part of the socialist side of the balance scales, along with the usual "evil socialism" suspects of public financial assistance and health care. It's amusing, in a "makes me want to vomit" sort of way, to hear otherwise generally intelligent people decry one sort of socialism while practically worshiping another sort.

    Unfortunately, there are lots of people out there who believe slavery is superior to freedom.

    More unfortunately, there are far too many people out there who believe in a fantasy world where you get to, or

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    WALSTIB!