Why Being Wrong Makes Humans So Smart
Hugh Pickens sends in an excerpt in last week's Boston Globe from Kathryn Schulz's book Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error. "The more scientists understand about cognitive functioning, the more it becomes clear that our capacity to make mistakes is utterly inextricable from what makes the human brain so swift, adaptable, and intelligent. Rather than treating errors like the bedbugs of the intellect — an appalling and embarrassing nuisance we try to pretend out of existence — we need to recognize that human fallibility is part and parcel of human brilliance. Neuroscientists increasingly think that inductive reasoning undergirds virtually all of human cognition. Humans use inductive reasoning to learn language, organize the world into meaningful categories, and grasp the relationship between cause and effect. Thanks to inductive reasoning, we are able to form nearly instantaneous beliefs and take action accordingly. However, Schulz writes, 'The distinctive thing about inductive reasoning is that it generates conclusions that aren't necessarily true. They are, instead, probabilistically true — which means they are possibly false.' Schulz recommends that we respond to the mistakes (or putative mistakes) of those around us with empathy and generosity and demand that our business and political leaders acknowledge and redress their errors rather than ignoring or denying them. 'Once we recognize that we do not err out of laziness, stupidity, or evil intent, we can liberate ourselves from the impossible burden of trying to be permanently right. We can take seriously the proposition that we could be in error, without deeming ourselves idiotic or unworthy.'"
Just because being wrong doesn't necessarily make you an idiot, that doesn't make you not an idiot for being wrong.
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I realize paranoia is delectable, but you will feel much better if you seek peaceful oblivion before the Illuminati win.
I suggest suicide.
"This post is an artistic work of fiction and falsehood. Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact."
Is it? I'm hearing stories coming-out where engineers wrote e-mails warning this blowout would happen.
If they did, then either they or the people they told, or both, are personally responsible for the deaths of the 11 men who died in the accident.
BP gives everyone the authority to stop a job for safety concerns, and they make damn well sure everyone knows it. It's one of their "Eight Golden Rules", and following these rules is a condition of employment for both employees and contractors.
Either the engineers were just passing emails to each other, and nobody was speaking up, or they sent it to someone who was unconnected with the operation, or they sent it to a manager/supervisor and that person did not do his job.
Obviously if you aren't physically there, you can't go waiving your arms and tell everyone to stop, but generally the engineers are on the rig, so they actually can go waiving their arms and telling everyone to stop. There is absolutely no excuse for not stopping a job if you have a reason to believe it is unsafe. Period. This is almost certainly not a case of the engineers being ignored, but a case of the engineers not doing their duty to protect their coworkers, and 11 men died because of it.
If they stayed quiet, instead of raising hell, in spite of serious safety concerns, then the engineers are personally responsible for not preventing the accident. They are the ones who would know if the mud is insufficient, and it's their duty to stop the job if it's unsafe. If that is the case, and I really don't see how it could not be, then I'm not sure how they can live with themselves right now. Perhaps its only by blaming others for their own failures, eh?
Security is mostly a superstition... Avoiding danger is no safer in the long run than outright exposure. - Helen Keller