Slashdot Mirror
World Cup Prediction Failures
pdcull writes "We all read on Slashdot about the investment banks using their massive computer power and clever modeling techniques to predict the FIFA World Cup outcome. Now that Goldman Sachs's, UBS's and Danske Bank's favorite, Brazil, has been eliminated, and with JP Morgan's England long gone, the question that begs to be asked is: can we really trust these guys to predict the financial markets any better than they did World Cup?"
What's an investiment bank?! I don't trust any large institution that can't spell worth beans.
For every problem, there is at least one solution that is simple, neat, and wrong.
Guess it's time to upgrade their magic ball software. This time maybe they shouldn't outsource the project to Mattel.
Is this a trick question??
All-star baseball player struggles at figure skating - clearly shows all-star game votes don't reflect players' abilities!
Grammy award winning singer can't perform simple clown juggling routine - they hand out Grammys to anyone these days!
Nobel prize winning chemist's sculpture harshly criticized by art critics - all previous research papers under scrutiny!
Games are decided by refereeing as much as anything. Did they throw that into the model?
FIFA make UN look like a girlscout.
Fuck systemd. Fuck Redhat. Fuck Soylent, too. Wait, scratch the last one.
Goldman Sachs gave Brazil (the "favorite") only a 13% chance of winning the world cup.
The fact that Brazil was eliminated is not at odds with the reports.
Way to ruin my self-righteous rage with your little 'facts' It makes me feel better to lay other people low when times are tough. The people need a safe outlet for their anger, and some remote math geeks should have been fair game. Then you come along and tell me their predictions were soundly made..? So, now I must recollect all that anger and direct it at my wife and children. I am the victim here. Why aren't you defending me?
How good are they at climate prediction. I'm just wonderin'...
It's easy. You just have to pay off the refs.
Too complicated. The best analogy is simply to say that GS, etc al are filled with shallow crooks who can and will trick and con everyone they meet out of every cent they have.
May the Maths Be with you!
Can you put this in car terms?
GS steals a car from Customer A, picks up Customer B and pays for sex, but then beats up B and takes the money back, sells a sex tape it made with B to A, then runs down A with their own car.
I am reliably informed that it is shrill and partisan to suggest that George W. Bush did anything wrong, or that any of the problems that the United States presently faces can be attributed to his or his party's consistent and passionately adopted decisions and policies. I am also informed that anyone who ever criticizes the consistent and passionately adopted policies and decisions of conservative politicians are merely criticizing George W. Bush, who was not in fact a conservative. Keep that in mind, smart guy.
/s
Don't blame me, I voted for Baltar.
Too complicated. The best analogy is simply to say that GS, etc al are filled with shallow crooks who can and will trick and con everyone they meet out of every cent they have.
And for completeness, they're all driving in cars.
William of Ockham had no beard. The most likely explanation is that it was chewed off by squirrels every morning.
"They hand out Grammys to anyone these days!"
"DRM is like the Ford Pinto: it's a smooth ride, right up the point at which it explodes and ruins your day."-C.Doctorow
"Football is a simple game; 22 men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans always win."
Gary Lineker
Can you put this in car terms?
Customer A comes to GS and says we have views on these pool of players, help us implement that view. Goldman tells Customer B they are interested in structuring a bet (that by necessity, must have another side) with the same pool. Customer B picks the players it likes, based on its own analysis and expertise. Customer A accepts the new list of players. Customer B is initially very happy, but soon the players, for which no entity involved has any influence, start performing poorly. Customer A loses. Customer B wins. Goldman, having retained some of Customer A's stake for itself, loses, but recoups a portion of the loss through fees earned by structuring the deal. All the Goldman execs then get new Ferraris.
Now that I think about it, I'm pretty sure everything I just said is completely wrong.
Apparently, if you didn't need Tarp money, the government look at your bank as though you MUST have been doing something "wrong".
Absolutely. You see, if you weren't "in" on this largest scam in history, then you are not part of the elite capitalist clan, and thus you are obviously a communist. A communist! Oh, wait, wrong century. A terrorist! You're with the terrorists!
Assorted stuff I do sometimes: Lemuria.org
Sure. Which is the odd one out - a Goldman Sachs banker, a computer salesman or a second hand car dealer?
The computer salesman - he doesn't always know when he's lying.
Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."