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AI Predicts Manhole Explosions In New York City
reillymj writes "Every so often, a 300-pound manhole cover blows sky high in Gotham, followed sometimes by a column of flame and smoke. (There are a few hundred 'manhole incidents' per year in the city, not all of them this dramatic.) Researchers from Columbia University applied machine learning algorithms to Con Edison's warren of aging electrical wires and sewage access points around Manhattan. As the system learns where dangerous mixtures of sewer gas and decrepit wiring are likely to come in contact, it makes forecasts about trouble spots, including where the next explosion may occur. The team has just completed rankings for manholes in Brooklyn and the Bronx, and plans to return to Manhattan's grid, armed with the most recent inspection and repair data." The research was published in the July issue of Machine Learning.
Southern California Edison requires two ventilating pylons for each manhole. They are much bigger than you might expect, and need to be spaced apart. It greatly increases planning complexity.
Methane build-up is only one cause though. Venting that causes ...odors... that people tend to not want to be near. The more common cause is failure of oil-filled equipment ranging from link switches to transformers to oil-insulated cables. When these go you need someplace for the explosion to expand to... or you will destroy everything in the manhole.
This is an interesting solution to the problem, but I have trouble understanding how it is more effective than root-cause analysis and post-incident review of data they already have. It isn't like the combination of factors is the problem... more like aging and over-burdened equipment that should already be on a predictive-maintenance plan.
An investment in repairing decaying infrastructure and even putting in new infrastructure is not a zero sum game. Let the infrastructure decay long enough and you will no longer be able to support industry and commerce, leading to an exponential rate of decay. Meanwhile, working laborers will be able to afford to consume and increase the growth of industry and commerce.
The New deal gave us a national network of interstates, bridges and highways that have dramatically increased the productivity of the nation as a whole for the last 50 years. These were only designed to last about 50 years. Now after 30+ years of neglect and decay they are falling apart. Now more than ever, we need a reinvestment in national infrastructure. I am not talking about just roads and bridges; but power, water and information distribution systems as well.