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Reading Terrorists' Minds About Imminent Attack

An anonymous reader writes "Imagine technology that allows you to get inside the mind of a terrorist to know how, when, and where the next attack will occur. In the Northwestern study, when researchers knew in advance specifics of the planned attacks by the make-believe 'terrorists,' they were able to correlate P300 brain waves to guilty knowledge with 100 percent accuracy in the lab, said J. Peter Rosenfeld, professor of psychology in Northwestern's Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences."

10 of 206 comments (clear)

  1. Lab Accuracy != Real World Accuracy by Da+Cheez · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "they were able to correlate P300 brain waves to guilty knowledge with 100 percent accuracy in the lab"

    Bet the accuracy wouldn't be so good in a non-controlled, non-laboratory environment. Of course, that wouldn't necessarily stop such a technology from being used, now would it?

    1. Re:Lab Accuracy != Real World Accuracy by camperdave · · Score: 5, Insightful

      "Without any prior knowledge of the planned crime in our mock terrorism scenarios, we were able to identify 10 out of 12 terrorists and, among them, 20 out of 30 crime- related details,"

      Yeah, 10 out of 12 is 100%. We need to give these guys more money so they can upgrade from their first generation pentiums.

      --
      When our name is on the back of your car, we're behind you all the way!
    2. Re:Lab Accuracy != Real World Accuracy by retchdog · · Score: 5, Informative

      The 10/12 is a new study "without advanced knowledge of the `terrorist' plans," whereas the 100% was with this knowledge. The presence of this distinction should further set the stage for skepticism about their experimental design.

      Further, they have achieved only 100% (resp. 83%) sensitivity (=true positives) with an unknown (or unreported) specificity (=true negatives) since they had no controls. What if I'm having an affair or high-stakes slightly-shady business deal in New York?

      --
      "They were pure niggers." – Noam Chomsky
    3. Re:Lab Accuracy != Real World Accuracy by slashqwerty · · Score: 5, Insightful

      It is really easy to achieve a 100% true positive rate. Just accuse everyone.

      The article didn't mention false positives. It would not surprise me at all if this technology would have at least two orders of magnitude more false positives than true positives in the real world. You can't get away from the fact that terrorists are rare so they will be lost in the noise of all the people who are not terrorists.

      Let's say the police go through 50 suspects, none of whom are terrorists. With an 83% accuracy rate the odds of all suspects correctly identifying no targets is 0.83^50 = 8.99 x 10^-5 = 0.00899%. In other words, with just 50 suspects there is better than a 99.99% chance law enforcement would be acting on bogus information. It takes only four suspects before there is better than a 50% chance of acting on bogus information.

      Real world use would likely see results worse than the 83% achieved in the lab.

  2. Terrorists schmerrorists by line-bundle · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Why is everything legitimized by putting the word terrorist in it? What does this have to do with terrorism?

    As someone said here on /., terrorism is one of the magic keys, the other being child porn.

  3. Re:so PRE crime starts now and how do they jury tr by mysidia · · Score: 5, Interesting

    It's not a problem. A jury trial is only required to prosecute you of a crime you actually have committed.

    Holding you imprisoned based on a crime you thought about committing, doesn't require you to be guilty.

    Also, your inability to gain access to a lawyer, see visitors, or have anyone be informed of where you are (or that you are held), due to restrictions imposed on people thinking about terrorism, will prevent you from challenging the authorities' decision to hold you.

  4. Re:so PRE crime starts now and how do they jury tr by KDR_11k · · Score: 5, Insightful

    As long as public indecency is illegal we all have something to hide.

    --
    Justice is the sheep getting arrested while an impartial judge declares the vote void.
  5. I'm very skeptical by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    Some people in my research team are working on P300 detection - here's how it works.

    Basically, a P300 is a peak of cortical activity recorded approximately 300ms after perceiving something you expect to perceive - it has nothing to do with emotion, as the paper says. It's about attention and expectation. A simple example is the P300 speller: letters are blinking on a screen, and you focus on the letter you want. when your letter blinks, your brain generates a P300.

    When detecting P300 with external electrode, there are several problems:

    - some people are not able to generate P300 peaks (approx 5-10% if I remember correctly)
    - the 300ms delay can vary from one person to another, even for the same person depending on the situation
    - the P300 is drowned in noise, so you have to reproduce the experiment several times to cancel out the noise
    - if you blink your eyes or contract your jaws muscles, you generate artifacts in the signal that are several orders of magnitude stronger than a P300
    - to make it work properly you have to be relaxed, in a quiet environment - that's why we generally use visual stimuli. i'm not sure where the state of the art is with auditive stimuli
    - if you drug the guy so he is calm and doesn't move, you are very likely to also affect his brainwaves, thus defeating the purpose.

    Long story short: from what I know of the subject, P300 detection on a non-willing subject sounds unrealistic to me. It's all about researchers getting fundings by putting the word "terrorist" in their research proposal, which is very sad.

  6. Re:Define 'guilty' by maxwell+demon · · Score: 5, Insightful

    and if the device lights up to say that you recognize Bob, then I know you just lied to me.

    No. You have an indication that he lied. Maybe his brother knows Bob, and he has seen him once with his brother but didn't know who he was. Then he was 100% right when he said that he didn't know Bob, but he nevertheless recognized the person on the picture, although he didn't recognize him as Bob, but as the person his brother was talking to. Or maybe he was earlier shown a photo of Bob by another policeman who forgot to tell you about that detail, and he recognized the photo as the same one the policeman had showed him a week ago. Or maybe Bob looks quite similar to John, and he momentarily mis-identified the man on the picture as John, maybe not even long enough for this recognition to get into his consciousness, but long enough for his brain to cause the characteristic pattern of recognizing.

    --
    The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
  7. From Someone Who Works In This Lab by alexsoko · · Score: 5, Informative

    Hello, As both a) someone who works in this lab and b) someone who reads this site pretty religiously, I think I can address some of your guys concerns. 1) Specificity of questions - unlike a standard polygraph test, in a P300 CIT (concealed information test) subjects aren't asked questions as muscle movements or auditory stimuli may disrupt the electrodes ability to record P300. Instead, stimuli are presented silently on the screen and thus, if the subject 'recognizes' the stimulus he will generate a P300 whenever that stimulus is presented. However, in doing so, the list must initially be vetted with the subject who says if any of the items have specific relevance to him. (This would be like in an investigation if a police detective showed someone a list of people and asked if a POI knew any of them). 2. This isn't a 1 recognition stimulus identifies everything sort of thing. The same stimuli are shown to people literally hundreds of times and it takes a pattern of recognition to correctly identify someone as guilty. Also, there are levels of recognition. All of the responses are compared to one another to get a standard base, per each participant, of brain activity. Then each recognition pattern is compared to the pattern as a whole to determine guilty knowledge. 3. For critical information a more strict test can be performed which compares the strongest P300 to the second strongest P300. If that patters is statistically bigger then you can be certain that they have guilty knowledge of that item. 4. Several of the studies we have conducted have actually incentivized (given money) to people for trying any strategy possible to BEAT the test. 5. There ARE countermeasures for this test that you can do to try to hide your P300 responses - however this specific protocol is a COUNTERMEASURE RESISTANT TEST. Believe me, if you've thought of it - we've thought of it. 6. Yes, when using just a pure P300 analysis we don't get people with 100% accuracy. But after we adjust for countermeasure use, and analyze other behavioral and EEG data that is collected concurrently with the P300 we can get 100% accurate identification. 7. We do so without getting false positives. Like any tool in law enforcement (the polygraph, fingerprinting, etc...) it's not necessarily as important that any individual thing works as it is that of the array of tools used ONE of them catches the person. And you don't want to wrongly accuse anyone. Why our P300 research is special is because we get an extremely high detection rate with no false positives. 8. If you have more questions please respond to this comment and I will try to respond. --Alex Soko