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Six Reasons Why Flash Isn't Going Away

CWmike writes "While Steve Jobs is betting his mobile platform on it, predicting Flash's demise is short-sighted, say industry analysts. 'There are many people who despise Flash, but I'm not sure they'd love the alternative right out of the gate. The open-source world has not blown everyone out of the water with their video work thus far,' Michael Cote, an analyst at RedMon, told Howard Wen. 'Adobe has spent a lot of time optimizing Flash, and I'd wager it'd take some time to get HTML 5 video as awesome.' Here are six factors that give Flash a strong position over HTML 5 and other alternative Web media technologies in the foreseeable future. For starters, While Android has made Flash a wedge issue, Flash is just beginning to show up on multiple mobile device platforms, Wen writes. Ross Rubin, an analyst at NPD Group, reminds us how Flash ushered in video on Web pages, but Craig Barberich, vice president of marketing and business development at Coincident TV, highlights the pervasiveness of Flash on the Web as we know it: 'Everybody is talking about video, but what doesn't necessarily get talked about is a lot of the interactive elements.'"

8 of 483 comments (clear)

  1. Browser as Gaming Platform by Green+Salad · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Two words. "Browser Games" I play Deepolis, a very responsive and media-rich game. Can't imagine it implemented in anything other than Flash. It's the same reason many linux people have dual-boot. Games.

    1. Re:Browser as Gaming Platform by whisper_jeff · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Um, Quake II in HTML5. I could be mistaken but I believe some very smart people are imagining how to implement media-rich games in HTML5. Flash's days are numbered. It might take several years, but it is a technology on the way out.

    2. Re:Browser as Gaming Platform by Kitkoan · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Did you see the video of that Quake 2? It has major frame rate drops (and I doubt it was running on specs from 5 years ago) and took many elements beyond html5 to do that (in their words "we use WebGL, the Canvas API, HTML 5 elements, the local storage API, and WebSockets"). So many extras means more problems to support on different OS's. They also stated that they needed to create a new WebGL based renderer, not the standard one. Now go try Quake Live which is running Flash. Its recommended (not minimum) specs are: 2 GHz Intel Processor or better, 1680x1050 or higher screen size (can be as low as 1024x600), NVIDIA GeForce 7 Series or better, ATI Radeon X1800 series or better. These specs would run on a computer from 5 years ago without the frame rate drops and all the extras (including a custom built WebGL renderer). And the graphic load is more for Quake Live then Quake 2. Now are you really trying to tell me that the choppy, customized Quake 2 that most likely took quite modern hardware to run at even that level of "smoothness" is somehow proof that the Flash version of Quake Live (Quake 3) that runs smooth, without customized extras on hardware that is 5 years old is the proof that Flash is dying and ready to be replaced by the standard HTML5?

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  2. Re:Jobs isn't betting his platform on it... by tomhudson · · Score: 4, Interesting
    Mp The iPad doesn't have the cpu guts to render HD video - it downscales it to 1024x576 - not even the 1366x768 of the crappy HDTVs, and way below 1920x1080.

    Funny how even the cheapest netbooks can do it, and laptops at the $400 price point are now doing 1600x900 native.

    Want to develop a cross-platform game? Forget HTML5 - flash is the way to go - it works NOW on PCs, laptops, even game consoles (go to http://alphagfx.com/ and try one of the 9x9, 12x12, or 17x17 games on a Wii - the 9x9 are native resolution, but the others downscale just fine).

    The only other option even close is Java - and Java sucks for game development (and how many people want to run your java app anyway?) So you have a choice - develop once for everyone except Apple iStuff, and do it a second time for His Jobsiness, or spend the same amount of time developing twice as much for +90% of the market. The math is simple - Flash beats Apple.

  3. I'll give up flash when... by Ossifer · · Score: 4, Interesting
    • I can browse ANY restaurant website from my iPhone and not just see one blue lego
    • All Flash games, site navigation, business apps, etc. have been ported to something better supported
    • People stop trying to convince me that HTML 5's video tag is a total replacement
    • Whatever replaces it is universally and freely (beer) available on all platforms flash currently is
  4. Why Flash Video Takes so much CPU? by Layth · · Score: 4, Interesting

    To the best of my understanding, this is why flash takes so much CPU processing power to play a video.
    Hopefully they will be addressing this now that they're going mobile, and working on a lot of optimizations..

    Check out this NetSteam class, which is used to stream videos from the internet or your hard drive:
    http://help.adobe.com/en_US/FlashPlatform/reference/actionscript/3/flash/net/NetStream.html?allClasses=1

    In particular, the bufferLength property reads:
    "If any [thing] causes bufferLength to increase more than 600 seconds or the value of bufferTime * 2, whichever is higher, Flash Player flushes the buffer and resets bufferLength to 0"

    Translation?
    If flash player loads a video to the point that fills it's buffer size, it immediately flushes it's buffer and reloads the video into the buffer, and then it will flush it's buffer and reload the video into it's buffer, and then it will flush it's buffer.. etc

    You can see where I am going with this. It's absurd.. but this is what appears to be going on to me.
    The alternative is to set a really high buffer time, and make it so the entire video gets loaded into the buffer so the bufferLength is rarely greater than bufferTime*2. but then it will take much longer to begin playing so I doubt you have ever come across any code on the internet that actually does that..

    I became aware of this when I was using flash to load a video on my local hard drive and received hundreds of buffer flush events.. one after another, after another, after another.
    Having said all that, I think Flash has a lot of things going for it.. It just needs a little work still..

    Adobe is obviously trying, but I think the talent is spread too thin. Some of their flash classes are written really well and some are written really poorly.

  5. I think this misses the point by sjonke · · Score: 4, Interesting

    It's not that Flash isn't still used or won't go away, it's that there is no end of things to do on my iPhone as it is. Every once in a while I run across a web site that requires flash. What do I do? I don't use it. Their loss much more so then mine. I'm not saying there aren't things out there I wish I could use on my iPhone, only that other things weigh more heavily for me, and in any case it just hasn't been a big deal. If it's some site I really want to access I'll send them a message and request that they make their site compatible with iOS and non-Flash. Sometimes they do that. Sometimes they don't. I'll live.

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  6. Re:Jobs isn't betting his platform on it... by hairyfeet · · Score: 4, Interesting

    People, can't we all just...get along? Lets be honest folks, we know why Jobs blocked flash, and I seriously doubt it had to do with developers or performance, it was all about control. Anybody who has watched Jobs over the years knows the man is a SERIOUS control freak, always has been, always will be. Now to some that is a good thing, since by having serious control he is able to insure the user experience is consistent, and that pretty much any iStuff "just works" the way you expect it to. Now personally I like to tinker too much to give up that much control, but I can certainly see why some would prefer it.

    As for TFA, I'd say the reason why flash will not being going away anytime soon is the same as the video we make fun of the Ballmer Monkey for..Developers developers developers developers. Hell with some of the easy to use flash tools out there my 16 year old kid who has never made a website in his life could make a cool website with minimal fuss. The flash toolset is well known, mature, and frankly easy to throw something together in and have it work, just like how programmers fucking HATED VB but watched in horror as it spread like the clap thanks to it being so damned easy to pick up and make something functional with. Same thing here.

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