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German Military Braces For Peak Oil
myrdos2 writes "A study by a German military think tank leaked to the Internet warns of the potential for a dire global economic crisis in as little as 15 years as a result of a peak and an irreversible decline in world oil supplies. The study states that there is 'some probability that peak oil will occur around the year 2010 and that the impact on security is expected to be felt 15 to 30 years later. ... In the medium term the global economic system and every market-oriented national economy would collapse.' The report closely matches one from the US military earlier this year, which stated that surplus oil production capacity could disappear within two years and there could be serious shortages by 2015 with a significant economic and political impact."
A year or two ago I posted to some thread where I remarked that "global warming" was a self-limiting concern, because of declining oil production. I was blasted as being a selfish, ignorant &)*(&%&$$.
SO.... This is what I was talking about. The day will come (before you're ready) when you will look back wistfully at the time when you COULD afford to damage the environment :-)
Many will die, many more will suffer, when the resource depletion culls the winners from the losers. Survival will reign over "equality"...
Yes, I make dark and unsavory predictions. We have enjoyed a stunningly rich and happy 50-60 year run. Soon we will return to what the *rest* of human history has been like.
Bah, humbug. There are vast amounts of tar sands in Canada and Saudi Arabia and probably in a few other places...
It is a problem for Germany though, since they refuse to build new nuclear power stations. For everybody else, it is not a problem aqnd I suppose France will be the next major exporter of energy - from their nuclear stations.
Excuse me, but please get off my Pennisetum Clandestinum, eh!
Is that I get a warm fuzzy feeling deep inside when I consider that the collapse of civilization as we know it could happen within my life time.
I think we are over due for another shake up.
At what point will it become cheaper to just turn our massive coal deposits into usable petroleum?
Nobody (except maybe the usual few paranoids, and perhaps the usual tabloid corporate mass media that loves them) said in the 1970s that oil would run out by the 1990s. What was said, by Kingman, who said in the 1950s that American oil would peak in the early 1970s and was right, was that global oil would peak in the 1990s. Peak does not mean end - it means the opposite, the maximum production. But Kingman's research showed in both cases that the peak would be followed immediately by a dropoff as steep and as short as was the ramp-up leading to the peak. However, demand continues to increase, so the shortfall grows even more rapidly, and immediately after the peak (once any relatively small surplus is consumed).
What Kingman's research did not have was the self-reflexive consequences of his research on the supply and demand curves. When America's oil peaked in the early 1970s, the resulting oil crunch not only changed the supply and demand curves that Kingman couldn't account for because the crunch and response data had never existed before. It also changed the appreciation of Kingman's research, and of his prediction that the global peak was coming. So that the world prepared in many ways for the next predicted peak, the global one. By the time the 1990s came, the effects were around: some peaking in large Saudi fields helped create the shortage pricing that we've never left since then. And the peak was delayed. But not for very long. Mainly what happened was that estimates of reserves were exaggerated (lies), in large amounts.
So we are indeed in the global peak oil period now, and in some ways have been since the 1990s.
--
make install -not war
Gulf oil may run out. Which is good. No more money to sponsor Taleban and Hezbollah.
Other oil? Not so sure. Russians have always been operating a policy of "use 1, save 1". They have a considerable state reserve, so does USA in Alaska. Then there are all the fields that are in the Arctic or other places that are beyond current tech. Then there are all the fields that are not economically viable because of current land prices and environmental regs. Britain has petrol so does Germany, Netherlands, etc. However nobody wants to see an oil well in their backyard. Then there are all the places around the world with high density oil which are too difficult for current drilling processes. I own land on top of one of these fields in Eastern Europe and frankly I am eagerly waiting for oil to "run out". There is also a lot of high density leftovers which were never pumped out from fields that have been declared exhausted in Texas, Caucasus, etc. And so on.
Oil is not running out any time soon. It will just become more and more expensive. 200$ a barrel and 4-5$ per litre (not per gallon) at the pump are coming this way within the next 10 years and there is little we can do about that.
Baker's Law: Misery no longer loves company. Nowadays it insists on it
http://www.sigsegv.cx/
The estimates are that the cheaply available fissile material will be gone in about 70 years at the current rates of production.
And, if memory servers, we've already burned through most of the fuel from decommissioned nukes.
Oil is likely to last longer.
What's your plan for the long term?
When I took geology in college (~1987) they were predicting that oil was going to run out by early 2000. I guess fifteen years in the future is farther ahead than they expect most people will remember.
Peak oil is a myth and there is very strong evidence of abiotic oil. See http://www.viewzone.com/abioticoilx.html for example.
Can you document your inference that the vast majority of your generation, on the other hand, are more environmentally responsible? For instance, by providing proof that the fleet mileage of your generation greatly exceeds that of an equivalent random sample of "Baby Boomers"?
Orwell: "In a Time of Universal Deceit, telling the Truth is a Revolutionary Act"
That, and I think Germany is actually doing pretty well in making renewable fuel an attractive option. For example, IIRC, biodiesel is excise-exempt and available at various pumps throughout Germany. Many German cars will run on it, and more can be made to run on it by replacing a few parts.
It was exempt some years ago.
Today, taxes are being ramped up over the years to achieve a comparable price for fuels from biological sources and mineral oil. I think the maximum level has not been reached yet, but will be soon (2013?). To ensure that fuel from biological sources is bought, law requires that some percentage of the bio-stuff is added to the mineral oil (couple percent, 5-10 IIRC).
Ironically, modern cars don't really like it. Old ones, however, e.g. diesel Mercedes from the 90s, can run on salad oil (without any process to change to a state more similar to diesel, which requires a large amount of energy) without modifications (though some are usually required, say, replacing some seals). Modern diesel engines couldn't survive this for long as the high pressure pumps rely on the lubrication by the fuel (somehow insane, but a lot cheaper to produce).
In 15 years? We already have a dire global economic crisis right now, its roots, I believe, in the fact that global oil production has been on a plateau for the last 4 years instead of growing in step with the economy. It is only the government and Fed injection of trillions of dollars into the European and American economies that is (temporarily) masking the effects somewhat just now.
"I bless every day that I continue to live, for every day is pure profit."
Petroleum is really convenient in terms of an energy source, but we have a whole lot of others. That means, when push comes to shove, we can find other ways of doing things. Thus we aren't likely to face a real wide shortage. Nuclear is a good example. There is lots and lots of power to be had from nuclear sources. No it isn't a 1:1 replacement for oil but that's ok, we can deal with that.
Some of it is economic. The more expensive oil gets, the more alternatives are attractive. You may notice that there's been a big upswing in biofuel research and such things. This isn't coincidence or just green funding. It is the fact that the more oil costs, the more attractive an alternative is. Some of it is also just not listening to the crazies. Nuclear is a bad word in America and the green types lobby heavily against it. Well if it is that or no power, people will stop listening in a hurry and demand more plants be built. Some of it is just technological progress. We are getting better and better at alternative energy, energy storage and so on.
Also please remember that this won't be a wall, as in suddenly we can't turn the lights on one morning. It'll be a gradual thing, an increase in prices as supplies dwindle and/or harder to reach deposits are tapped. That means that there is also time for replacements, and incentive for those, as prices rise. Gradual change is something economies cope with relatively well. It is sudden change that is the real problem. So if oil production has peaked and things start sliding down, that isn't likely to be a big issue unless for some unknown reason it is abrupt and production just grinds to a halt.
One thing you may notice is that humans are pretty good at solving problems. They aren't so good at mitigating problems, looking ahead and making sure they never happen, but when a problem does happen they are pretty good and solving that problems. Thus it seems pretty likely that this sort of thing will get solved too. Supply starts going down, prices go up, alternatives are more profitable, etc, etc.
``On a serious note, I keep hearing that the next World Wars will be fought over resources. It might be hard for us to imagine this right now, since most Slashdotters get to wake up in soft beds, in airconditioned/heated rooms, take hot showers with nice smelling bath products, and drive the 1-2 miles to Starbucks to enjoy over priced coffee and free Wi-Fi.
All of our amenities, seemingly abundant and unending, provide a natural barrier to understanding just how quickly and totally society can break down when the "basics" become extremely hard to obtain.''
Paradoxically, they are exactly what will bring about that breakdown. We _could_ live at a sustainable level, if we were (collectively) willing to give up some of our luxuries.
I, for one, am willing to reduce my footprint, but I need some help. A few years ago, I was a student, lived in a small apartment with my girlfriend, and we both went everywhere on foot, by bike, or, occasionally, by public transport. We cared about energy efficiency and had far below average energy consumption. I had everything I wanted, and, according to a test I did, lived at a sustainable level.
Now, I have a full-time job, drive a car, and live alone in an apartment that is much larger than I need. I still care about energy efficiency and have below-average energy consumption, but the changes really ruin it. I invest in new technologies that aim to obviate the need for burning fossil fuels in my car, and I buy carbon offsets for my gasoline, electricity, and gas use. Still, I am required to work on site (hence the car), and my income disqualifies me from living in a smaller (cheaper) place. These inefficiencies, which are pressed on me, have lifted me from living at a sustainable level to living at an unsustainable level. If I could move back to my old place (or to something similar) and have everything I need within cycling distance, I would jump at the opportunity. The challenge is doing that and making enough money to sustain myself (at the time, I was racking up debt, which I am now paying off).
Please correct me if I got my facts wrong.
I keep hearing that the next World Wars will be fought over resources
The previous world war was fought over oil too. After the US cut off oil exports Imperial Japan decided to invade Indonesia to acquire its oil. The British in Singapore and the US in the Philippines were on the supply line that the oil would have to travel. Imperial Japan decided to remove the British and the US from the western pacific to secure that oil supply.
Ask the oil industry then.
Everyone there apart from a few creationist psychos knows that at some point oil supply is not going to be able to keep up with demand unless there are a few incredibly major discoveries. Certainly there's coal etc but that's straying off topic - peak oil is about oil - the really cheap stuff that comes out of the ground. Once more people want it than there is oil available somebody has to miss out, that is what peak oil means. For a lot of applications that just means switching to a different source of energy, but that takes time and costs more than the cheap oil we currently have.
It's not the end of the world.
It's just a point where things are no longer so cheap and easy.
The problem is that that there are 2 ways to deal with a resource shortage :
1) the "gaia" way : you conserve. You limit your resource usage and try to save what's left.
2) the "american way" (investment if you like) : you spend MORE, not less, and go looking for a solution to the problem. And quite frankly, while one is to avoid going totally off the rail, you don't really care what (or even who) you destroy in the process and you promise yourself to "fix it later if I find a solution"
Now, intuitively you might think that 1) is the way to go. It's nicer. It's "green". It's "natural". It's everything the current media loves. It's "nice". It's "the right thing". It's "risk free". Unfortunately it's only risk free in the sense that it leads to the abyss with 100% certainty.
And then you start checking. Just how natural is it ? What do bacteria do, when their food source is threatened ? Well, with but a few exceptions they invest all their remaining energy in a desperate attempt to expand their territory. What do plants do ? The same (again 99.99999999% of plants do this). What do animals do ? ...
So after researching this you start thinking the "natural" way is definitely option 2). But why ?
Well, simple. While option 1) might look nice rationally, but it is a trap : it is guaranteed to fail. Option 2) has some unknown amount of chance (probably more than 50%) of failure. But NOT 100%. Humans don't like it. We really don't know what will happen. Easier to go with guaranteed failure where no-one can be blamed. But unfortunately, the reaction to running out of resources cannot be conservation : it won't work. Society will wither and die if you do that.
At every point in time, there are 2 forces in nature. A force that is trying to advance by advancing the "state of the art" (in nature's case, the DNA library), species are trying to expand into areas where they couldn't exist before. They're trying to discover, and consume, resources they couldn't consume before. They're learning to create or replace critical molecules by alternative, less demanding versions. They're competitive and "weird things" happen. Lots of survival matches between all sorts of different species, which are rarely ever entirely won or lost by one or the other species.
But there is also a part of nature, a significant part, that lives on conservation. The main tactic to conserve, in nature, is to poison everyone else's chances for expansion, so as to take more for yourself. Lots of species do this, including several well known ones, and everyone (should) know the consequences. There are oak forests, and there are beech forests. Oak forests are big, extremely rich in biodiversity and house lots and lots of animals. Beech forests, by contrast, are sad, empty things, that look as if they're heavily poisoned, except for the beech trees. That's because they are heavily poisoned. By the beech tree (but there are other species like this).
Humans work in the same way. Expansion leads to rich, open societies that, above most all else, encourage discovery and change. Conservation leads to what you might call a taliban society.
The peak oil theory is way overrated. Note: I'm not saying that peak oil hasn't occurred or won't occur soon. No, you're missing my points. Here they are:
1. There will be no world war over resources, as so many chicken littles believe. People in China pay the same price for oil as people in the US. Yes, theoretically Saudi Arabia could give itself a deal on oil, but then what would happen? (I mean, have you ever really thought this through?) Production would shift from the higher cost area to the lower cost area. Since Saudi Arabia doesn't have the capacity to manufacture the world's stuff, they realize that it's in their best interest to charge China the same price as they do themselves for oil usage.
2. As peak oil occurs, behaviour will change dramatically. Production will become more localized to reduce shipping costs. People will accumulate in cities where transportation is cheaper. Cars will get smaller. Houses will get smaller. People won't fly half way around the world and will (shock) actually use video conferencing instead. The world consumes SO much oil on such things of little imprtance, that actual oil usage could be stretched for thousands of years.
3. As the above point #2 starts to occur, biofuels and other substitutes will become economically feasible. Already wind power is making a serious dent in the global energy market. Brazil has a massive ethanol industry, and large parts of Africa will probably follow.
Peak oil is way overrated. It will not lead to the end of civilization. Shit, we've only *had* oil for a tiny fraction of human existance. Yes, the world will change as oil decreases, but life will go on, and happily so.
The real problem is overpopulation.
There will be plenty of oil in the ground, around as much as has already been used in all of history in fact. But the rate of production will slow. That means that there will be a limit to how much oil is available. That's what will cause the price to go steeply up. And it'll keep on going steeply up year on year to price more and more people out of the market. Pretty soon (a handful of years) ordinary people won't be able to afford it. It's not just that they'll feel they can't afford it. It's not just that they'll complain it'll be too expensive. They literally will not have enough money from their salary to pay for the gas to drive their cars as they used to. It'll come to a choice between driving and eating.
And that's the least of it. It's the resource wars between countries that will be really nasty. Getting Iraq under western control was only a start.
I think it's not a gradual climb in price, it's the immediate (we're talking 60-90 days) 50%-200% increase in price as demand outstrips supply. Yes, you can still afford to put gas in your car if gas climbs to $8/gallon, but most trucking companies will go under when their profit margins evaporate (see also: freight industry consolidation 2008-2010), and the cost of shipping doubles, causing those costs to be passed on to the consumer, instant 20-30% price spike in goods and services. So what started out as $8/gallon gas is now a 20-40% increase in the cost of living overall, combined with decreased wages to keep people employed. Basically, imagine the incredible, rapid price inflation of fall 2008 (that everyone seems to have forgotten about), but as a permanent change.
moox. for a new generation.
I think transportation will get so expensive, that the 100 mile economy will become fact. This will destroy the economy of scale because we will just not be able to afford to transport goods over long distances. The good news is that there will be jobs all over the place, the bad news is we will be living in the 19th Century again.
it makes me a realist, someone who is confident in the capabilities of man.
That would make you a very overconfident optimist, in my opinion. Most definitely not a realist.